Question: Are Random Void Drops Really Random?

[DeadlyPeanutt]

As I've been playing the game more, and playing void almost exclusively to make frames to trade, I've noticed that the 'random' drops in specific  void missions seem far from random.  

 

For instance, in T3 D missions, wave 20 C rotation: there are 8 possible drops.  One of the drops is the Ash P BP ( a valuable drop), another is Wyrm P Cerebrum (a relatively worthless drop).  In playing that mission over 20-30 games, the number of Wyrm drops is at 80-90%.  

 

Is it possible that the random number generator is working against me in this instance? Surely.  But a random number generator that produces the same number 80-90% of the time is hardly random.  Anyone who knows math is aware that nothing is easier than to program a RNG to spit out a specific number very rarely (of course, that would not be a Random Number Generator at all, quite the contrary). 

 

other topics have addressed this, specifically:

https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/426276-void-rotation-c-drop-rates-remain-broken-something-still-needs-to-be-done/

 

My Question: Are the drop in the void (or in the game generally) actually random? Or are some drops more rare within those specific drop tables by design?

 

Of course, if the answer is that void drops are not random, then I'll stop playing those missions.  Also, we should stop referring to RNGs at all in regards to drops.  If some drops are designed to be rare and not random, then playing those missions becomes much less attractive.  For instance, if in a T3D mission, I have a 1-500 chance of getting an Ash BP, then I would not play the mission. 

 

Proof would be quite easy.... Start a topic and have players add data as they play the specific mission, when the data reaches 200-300 missions, the results should be fairly accurate.  

 

I ask the question, because this proof may already have been gathered.

 

Please refrain from responding with flames; this is a valid question which effects all players.  If the drops are NOT random, we should all know this in advance. 

 

TIA from a relatively new player :)

 

 

[p3z1]

They ARE random, and they ARE weighted.

 

Try running ODS and get T2 Capture keys instead of nova prime systems every 20 minutes.

Try running ODD and get keys instead of trinity prime systems every 20 waves.

[Drufo]

It's actally RNG, but items have different chances to drop, some being common, some uncommon and other rare.

[RobWasHere]

They are weighted random. So they are random, but some things have greater chance for dropping than others.

[DeadlyPeanutt]

It's actally RNG, but items have different chances to drop, some being common, some uncommon and other rare.

 

then drops are hardly random.  Where are the drops noted as being common, uncommon or rare, please?  

What is the chance of a rare drop occurring in a given void mission, for instance, the Ash p BP i mentioned?

They are weighted random. So they are random, but some things have greater chance for dropping than others.

please, where is this documented?  How can one find out what drops in the void are rare, common and uncommon?  

[DeadlyPeanutt]

They ARE random, and they ARE weighted.

 

Try running ODS and get T2 Capture keys instead of nova prime systems every 20 minutes.

Try running ODD and get keys instead of trinity prime systems every 20 waves.

I'm sorry, but weighted drops are not random.  Saying that they are weighted and listing the chances of obtaining a drop is more accurate (ie, in my example: T3D, C rotation, ash p bp: 1-500).

[DeadlyPeanutt]

Thanks to those responding.  The answer to my question (are void drops actually random?  Answer, no some drops are more 'rare' than others) brings up another question:  Which drops are rare and what is their actual drop rate within a given mission?

 

this:

https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/486215-prime-gear-drop-locations/

does not address which drops are rare and what the actual drop rates for specific items are.

 

This information is important and should be clearly shared.  

 

If anyone has knowledge of where this information is, please respond.  TIA

Edited February 6, 2016 by DeadlyPeanutt

[(PSN)Cwellann]

You should go check reddit.  You're asking for datamined numbers, and while they exist, I'm pretty sure posting such here is against the rules.

[Prime]

they aren't random... randomness doesn't exist in EDP

[(XBOX)Master4733]

They are and arnt, they are there but it's like pokemon each pokemon has a certain % chance to show up, however I have a theory that every person gets ______ loot more often(basically loot is categorized in tables and each player has a table that is common for them) just a theory though

[Monybags33]

It may feel like their is not but the computations in any randomized computer system is as "true random" as you can get currently. Some items however are always harder to come by and that can be found the easiest now in the ducat item exchangers, after all some items are very high and while others not so much. This is I think displaying the odds of what currently is hard to find not based so much on players but on the computations the developers placed giving some items a harder to find percentage value than others, however this is by no means a guarantee on whats rare and whats computed in the system just how I found up to line up things when I was curios. Your better off most times of just doing it having fun and being surprised.

[Acebaur]

Every time you finish a mission, wave, kill an enemy etc. there is a loot table and the game rolls on that loot table. Some items have a higher percentage chance to drop and so appear more often. 

[(XBOX)sh3kvothe]

Percentage rate is the key as mentioned above. However I can understand where you are coming from with this because after countless t4 defenses I was never able to get the Loki sys and when they finally released it on T3 sab I got it my first try. Tbh I spent so long trying to get him that I have a set and still haven't built him. Newer items to worry about now. 

[Tesseract7777]

RNG is actually a misnomer really. The meme when someone is talking about good or bad luck is to mention "rng" which stands for "random number generator". 

 

Having weighted percentages is absolutely not random at all. A number generator that has a strong weight to be picking certain numbers is not a random number generator, it is a weighted number generator varying by percentages. 

 

Many, many games use a similar system btw for their loot. Weighted drop chance percentages, so it's sort of random except it's not really random at all. It's a system designed for many games in order to be unpredictable, which gives the player a feeling of coming possible surprises and keeps them hooked, but I don't think any game has ever used a truly random system for their loot. 

[DeadlyPeanutt]

Having weighted percentages is absolutely not random at all. A number generator that has a strong weight to be picking certain numbers is not a random number generator, it is a weighted number generator varying by percentages. 

 

This ^  

 

It seems that Void Prime parts are a tiered drop system that includes 'rare, uncommon and common' drops.  Void Prime Part drops are not random at all.

 

Other questions arise from this answer:  Where is the information on what items in the Void Drop tables are 1) common 2) uncommon and 3) rare?  And how are each of those terms defined?  Is 'rare' a 1 in 500 chance of a drop in any given mission or is 'rare' a 1 in 50 chance of a drop?  Which items are rare, uncommon and common in each drop table (for example, of the 9 items in the T3 D C rotation drop table I mention in OP, which items are rare, uncommon and common?)

 

The information on which mods and resources are rare, uncommon and common are easy to find and are very clear.  Where is the information on Prime Part drops that make clear which parts are rare, uncommon and common?

 

Why is this information important?  1) Players get very frustrated when they assume they have a reasonable chance (or random chance) to have a specific prime part dropped in a mission.  If they are aware that the part they want has a 1 in 500 chance of dropping, they would either be less frustrated or decided not to play the mission in the first place.  2) When any given Prime Weapon or Prime Frame is made up of 3-5 parts and one part drops very rarely, that one rare part restricts the number of complete units that can be made.  By restricting drops on one part of any given unit, the number of complete units of that type from the void can be decreased dramatically.  

 

Again, the questions that arise: 'Where is the information on which Void Prime Parts are rare, uncommon and common?  And how often do 'rare, uncommon and common' prime parts drop?  

 

The answers are not made clear in any information that I have seen.  This page and it's source is one of my primary sources of information, and it implies if not states, that drops are random:

http://warframe.wikia.com/wiki/Orokin_Void/ByMissions

https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/486215-prime-gear-drop-locations/

 

Please note where this information is located.   TIA. 

[(PSN)Cwellann]

Once again, what you are asking for is data mined information.  That is not allowed to be posted here.

[Chroia]

They ARE random, and they ARE weighted.

^ That.

 

-----

 

Proof would be quite easy.... Start a topic and have players add data as they play the specific mission, when the data reaches 200-300 missions, the results should be fairly accurate. 

 

 

I assume that you're talking about something like this, (and pardon the BBCode, the editor doesn't like mine,) but it's hugely outdated.

That said, take a look at, for instance the T3C, or any of the T4 entires (aside from sab). It's fairly representative of the reward distributions by rarity.

 

 

You want to know the rarity of a specific Prime part without datamining?

Check its Ducat sale price. That tends to be a good indication of rarity.

 

The exact ratio depends on the specific mode, but as I recall from farming Trinity Prime Systems, almost 4 months ago, T3MD was around 1:20 for a rare reward.

I guesstimate this based on remembering the 80-some runs it took me to finally get it.

Got 4 total 'rare' rewards in that time. My sample size isn't big enough for me to be 'sure', but - like I said - guesstimate.

ofc, that was one of the worst cases around at the time, as I recall.

Might still have my reward-notes from that, now that I think of it.

Edited February 9, 2016 by Chroia

[DeadlyPeanutt]

Once again, what you are asking for is data mined information.  That is not allowed to be posted here.

actually, i'm asking for information posted by game dev.  Information on what mods and resources are rare, uncommon and common seem to be easy to come by... why not void prime drops?

[Grobbus]

actually, i'm asking for information posted by game dev.  Information on what mods and resources are rare, uncommon and common seem to be easy to come by... why not void prime drops?

If they wanted to give such information it would be posted on the wiki page.

Ducat prices seems good enough way to determine what is rare.

[[DE]Danielle]

Hey Tenno - Just a quick note on data-mined information. 

 

Please do not share any data-mined or leaked information on the Forums. This is a violation of the Code of Conduct and could land you a warning point: 

 

         2a) LEAKED/DATA-MINED CONTENT- Please do not promote or share leaks or data-mined information in the forums. If you are concerned about leaks please PM the DE staff. Continued posting of leaks/rumors will result in a warning point if the action continues after initial contact. We want to assure all Tenno are able to share in the excitement of new content when it is released to public. Addressing speculation and rumors takes attention away from the crucial content, changes, and fixes that are prioritized to further improve the game.

 

 

Carry on!

[OniDax]

 

Hey Tenno - Just a quick note on data-mined information. 

 

Please do not share any data-mined or leaked information on the Forums. This is a violation of the Code of Conduct and could land you a warning point: 

 

         2a) LEAKED/DATA-MINED CONTENT- Please do not promote or share leaks or data-mined information in the forums. If you are concerned about leaks please PM the DE staff. Continued posting of leaks/rumors will result in a warning point if the action continues after initial contact. We want to assure all Tenno are able to share in the excitement of new content when it is released to public. Addressing speculation and rumors takes attention away from the crucial content, changes, and fixes that are prioritized to further improve the game.

 

 

Carry on!

 

 

So, I'm curious. Why exactly is DE against publicly releasing drop rate information? What harm is there in DE being transparent with players regarding drop rates?

Edited February 9, 2016 by AntoineFlemming

[(PSN)Lord_Gremlin]

What you should know is that drop rng is tied to HOST account. You sort of get a new seed on every login. So if you have 3 people with you and you try to get a specific drop you should switch around who's hosting. It's very obvious if you've played a lot.

Especially stuff like sabotage. If you have enough time and keys with a friend you can even figure out which drops are rigged for each of you. Mostly works with more common drops ofc.

[Skaleek]

I can tell you at 100% certainty that drop tables are weighted in the void, and have been for a long time (maybe since its inception).

[_Raiklar_]

Of course you could also message DE Sheldon as it appears that he's in charge of the drop tables. Cause every time they say something about the drop tables in a DEV Stream they always refer to him. or imply that, that's his job. But I agree that the drops or extremely diluted and need to be more precise. As well the same item should not drop more than once in the same mission. About 4 or 5 months ago i did a 35 wave Void defense and got 6 forma bps. but I think they might have fixed that one.

[DeMeritus]

I wrote a big, long and detailed post, but had to delete it when I realized that I'm not allowed to talk about anything involving datamining.  Especially nothing juicy, nor the scandals involved in such.

 

Darn.  That's no fun.  :/

[DeMeritus]

So, I'm curious. Why exactly is DE against publicly releasing drop rate information? What harm is there in DE being transparent with players regarding drop rates?

 

It's considered datamined information.  It was a... sensitive issue to a dev or two, if I remember right.  I think Reddit went crazy over it, though.