It does, more or less. Free to play games obviously have statistics on who buys, how much they buy, when they buy and how long they stay playing the game. I think it's kind of too complicated to say 'well just stop playing a bit and you'll get one' though. If you've purchased before kind of often, and you login after an absence, there is definitely a high chance for a coupon to try to keep you playing for longer, since typically if you're buying, then you're playing more. Of course, the more you play, the higher chance you will buy additional things.
I've actually done a small experiment (you can chalk it up to a 1 off thing if you'd like)
I have spent a lot of money on Warframe, more than I am willing to admit. Either way, DE sees me as a spender.
I haven't logged in in 9 days and have quite a bit of time played on steam:
And I was greeted with a 50% discount coupon:
Obviously the 75% is definitely fewer and far between than the 50% or other discounts, and like I said, maybe this is a one time instance, but I was able to pretty confidently log in after a short absence and snag a discount.