[Account Cannot Spawn Ephemera]

Thanks for the solidarity. But the data here *should* be a red flag to anyone with a grasp of statistics.

I'm on #28 now with a 98.48% probability. Not "chance," but "likelihood." In two more runs, I will cross into 99% probability and all future runs will increase the "likelihood" by less than 1% until infinity without ever reaching 100%. That is a polite way of saying that more attempts will not really generate the likelihood of a more meaningful outcome. And this is also mathematical proof that this is a bug.

At the 8th attempt, I crossed a threshold into "probable" where the chances of having one "by now" are greater than the chances of not having one. I have more than tripled that number of attempts overall. If you look at just last 11 alone (the 20% drop chance), the probability is 91.41% with the the "probable" threshold on the 4th attempt. I'm 1 away from tripling this attempt threshold as well.

The reality is that "luck" stopped being a reasonable answer about the 14th run at the 10% drop rate. I have literally doubled that number of attempts at double that drop rate, so the likelihood of this "working as designed" is absurd.

My objective is really to get someone from DE to acknowledge that something is not right here and hopefully look into it.

[Account Cannot Spawn Ephemera]

It was 10% before the 20% bump. 3 would absolutely be expected at that drop rate.

I exceeded the probability of this streak being random before that change.

[Account Cannot Spawn Ephemera]

#27 and 98.1% probability

[Account Cannot Spawn Ephemera]

I am on my 26th Kuva Lich without an ephemera. I did the math on probability for this based on the drop rates at the time the Liches were spawned. I currently sit at 97.64% probable to have at least one by now and should reasonably have 3±1. I'm on my 9th since the drop rate was changed to 20%.

Formula is one minus the chance of NOT getting one to the power of the attempts made. Since the drop rate changed, the formula looks like 1-(.95)(.9^16)(.8^9) = 0.9764...

I need someone to help look into why I seem to be unable to obtain these.

Here's the probability breakdown:

5% Run
1 - 5%

10% Runs
2 - 14.5%
3 - 23.05%
4 - 30.74%
5 - 37.67%
6 - 43.90%
7 - 49.52%
8 - 54.57%
9 - 59.11%
10 - 63.2%
11 - 66.88%
12 - 70.19%
13 - 73.17%
14 - 75.86%
15 - 78.27%
16 - 80.45%
17 - 82.4%

20% Runs
18 - 85.92%
19 - 88.74%
20 - 90.9%
21 - 92.79%
22 - 94.24%
23 - 95.39%
24 - 96.31%
25 - 97.05%
26 - 97.64%