RNG Simulator

[Chappie]

23 hours ago, Buff00n said:

I think the two take-aways from the Riven examples are that you should (1) broaden your expectations, and (2) roll a bunch of Rivens a moderate number of times each rather than roll a single Riven hundreds of times.

God tier is god tier and fairly definable in that you have 2 or 3 great positive (90%+ of maximum) and 1 negative that is benign.   Any other definition of it is pretty much what you see in trade chat.  :P   I have a many rivens that fair...some that are good....but absolutely zero that are "god tier".

As for rolling multiple rivens...that makes no sense.  RNG is RNG.   The results that occur, are by the definition of RNG, independent.   So whether I roll ten rubico rivens 10x each or 1 riven 100x the ...probabilities do not change of getting something good. 

BTW...the tool is crazy good.  Been having fun with it.

On the riven tool, is there any place that explains your ++, +, ?, and - a "bit better"?   

As for the N positives, I could see an option to either make it "exact" or "at least".   Is there an option for something we will not tolerate as a negative?

Edited November 6, 2018 by Chappie1975

[Buff00n]

23 minutes ago, Chappie1975 said:

As for rolling multiple rivens...that makes no sense.  RNG is RNG.   The results that occur, are by the definition of RNG, independent.   So whether I roll ten rubico rivens 10x each or 1 riven 100x the ...probabilities do not change of getting something good. 

It's a cost issue.  Rolling 10 Rivens 10 times each costs half the Kuva of rolling 1 Riven 100 times.  At least the way I operate, I'm not rolling ten of the same type of Riven.  I'm rolling a bunch of different Rivens and maybe getting one 1-in-100 roll out of that group. 

24 minutes ago, Chappie1975 said:

On the riven tool, is there any place that explains your ++, +, ?, and - a "bit better"?   

Did you click the "Help" button and read the Riven Criteria section?

26 minutes ago, Chappie1975 said:

As for the N positives, I could see an option to either make it "exact" or "at least".

Your only options are 2, 3, or either 2 or 3.  I could maybe make it a radio button choice, but that would require work.

27 minutes ago, Chappie1975 said:

Is there an option for something we will not tolerate as a negative?

Add all the ones you *will* tolerate as a negative to the negative side, and anything left grey will not appear.  

[Buff00n]

I added some examples for the new Fortuna content.  The only things that really stand out from a drop rate perspective are the number of bounties you would need to run to get enough Medical Debt-Bonds and Advances Debt-Bonds to fully rank up the Solaris United syndicate.

 

On 2018-11-06 at 1:52 AM, GOOFBALL1 said:

Woah, thanks for taking the time to run the simulation for that. And here I thought 1:100 was bad lol. Really wish there was some way to lock riven stats, even if that'd make it untradeable.

So I saw your other thread and decided to see how hard it would be to actually simulate that procedure.  The result is better than 50,000 rolls, but maybe not as good as you thought.  There are a couple of different ways to build the scenario, but they all end up in the same ballpark around 650 rolls for the expected average.

[Buff00n]

I added some Profit-Taker examples based on the latest drop tables.

Trying to get all twelve of the new mods without trading is a bit of a grim proposition.