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[Drop table] Medical debt-bonds % bug


Onds
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According to the official drop table for these ( https://n8k6e2y6.ssl.hwcdn.net/repos/hnfvc0o3jnfvc873njb03enrf56.html ), the droprate for medical debt-bonds on orb vallis lvl 20-40 bounties stage 1 all rotations (A, B or C) is 20%. However, if this droptable is accurately pulled from the game data, then there is surely a very nasty bug in play as players are reporting issues getting these bonds in all several media: The forums, reddit, youtube etc.

Personally i have continuously run these missions, both solo and group for the past 3-4 hours. To maximize my time spent as well as keep the results precise, i have generally only done stage 1 of the bounties after which i have aborted and repeated. And after these many hours i have 2 medical debt-bonds in total. In other words, an assumed 20% drop have dropped once for me in what i am guessing is more than 30 runs. Taking this a step further and assuming the same droprate as i have had, i would need to spend another 12-16 hours purely farming for these to be able to reach required bonds for rank 3. After which more of these bonds are needed.

The result of this is that a large portion of the playerbase is stuck with maxed solaris united standing to rank up, but unable to progress since they can not aquire these medical debt-bonds to progress further (unless they are very lucky and Ticker has them for sale - which also is reported to be very very rare). And as a result of this, they can also not progress in several other aspects of fortuna due to not having the faction rank to buy needed recipes, although they have put in more than plenty of work for the faction standing itself.

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I have run ~20 of these bounties and gotten 4 bonds so only 2 drops. It is definitely messed everyone in game and out of game is complaining about how hard it is to get bonds from the bounty missions in general and these ones in particular. I have gotten like 30 Garuda Neuroptics in that time and at least a dozen of the rare mods as drops but never the bonds.

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6 hours later from my original post, i have finally aquired 13 medical debt-bonds. How many times i have run tier 3 bounties stage 1 i do not know, but it is far far more than any player should be asked to do.

When you (DE) said that "you had learned from PoE and reduced the grind accordingly" i am sure this is not what you ment to do.

Edit: Now, knowing how hard they are to get i will get unto working on the 13 medical debt-bonds needed for the _next_ rank.

Edited by Onds
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Still farming for medical bonds here, i started writing down some statistics a while ago. I wrote down 16 runs of tier 3 stage 1 bounties completed before i got 2xMedical debt-bonds. Here it is important to note that i had run at least 10 bounties before i started writing them down. Could have been 20, could have been 30. But lets stick with 10 since i know for sure i did that.

That means 26 runs to hit what is written as a 20% drop chance.

Now, if that data was a single set it could just be shrugged off as bad luck. But keep in mind i have been doing this for very many hours now. It is not a standalone statistic. Couple this with all the reports of others having the same issue and you have a pattern saying that even though it is possible everyone are just having very bad luck, it is also VERY IMPROBABLE.

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On 2018-11-12 at 4:38 PM, Downlouder said:

Yeah same here did 8 missions and not dropped. Please add it to Ticker or sth. This is so annoying.

they are buyable from ticker, only very seldom and very expensive too (got one debt for about 200k credits AND 1.3k oxium) - but after running the damn 3rd bounty for hours and only ever got 2x of the bloody things, i was sick of it... also, i had nothing to waste my overflowing standing anymore. so, to make this short: waste of time, waste of resources and waste standing.

DE should remove some of the resource rewards and/or lower the lense reward chance too (better yet, remove it). the players doing this runs usually don't need neither of it - and if, there are other ways to get them. nonetheless, there really seem to be something wrong with the chances listed in the droptable too - or DEs rng-code sucks bad... (yeah, i know we all belive it sucks or is rigged, but anyway, don't make THAT obvious, eh?)

Edited by fr4gb4ll
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2 minutes ago, BoneBreakerx said:

just did 6 runs back to back all 4 stages got bonus on all of them... ended up with 2 bonds... thats 48 chances of getting them (dunno if they drop from all stages got the 2 i got from stage 3)

Sounds promising, as only the first stage has high drop chance according to the official droptable (20% - link in the first post). I'll post back with more statistics as well when i hit more.

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Nope, i don't think anything changed with the recent hotfix. Here's more statistics, still tier 3 stage 1 bounties only (20% listed chance):

6 runs for first set of 2 x medical debt bonds
19 runs for the second set of 2 x medical debt bonds

 

So, coupling this with some of my previous statistics we get:

25 runs for 2 drops, 26 runs for 1 drop in the previous set. Total of 51 runs for 3 drops = ~17 runs per drop = ~ 6% drop chance.

 

Rank 3 requires 13 medical debt bonds. Rank 4 requires another 10 medical debt bonds. Rank 5 requires yet another 12 medical debt bonds. That is a total of 35 medical debt bonds, or 18 drops needed of 2 bonds each (discounting ticker since his deals for these are both very rare and very expensive).

Of these 35 medical debt bonds, i have so far aquired 26, or in other words i have had them drop 13 times. However, if i had written down my statistics for all my bounty runs, the drop percentage would probably have been about the same. Not even close to the listed 20%. And very many hours spent farming for these only.

I don't really mind having to spend a long time farming something. But i do mind that the dropchance in the officially published droptable clearly seems to be misleading.

 

Edit:
Oh, and before someone posts something about how probability works, i know how it works. However, i dare you to roll a normal dice where each number has a ~16.66...7 chance of being the outcome each roll, in other words less than the listed chance for medical debt bonds. See if you can get f ex hitting a 6 to as low as the above results over the course of 100 rolls. It is possible. But very improbable.

Edited by Onds
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