Rivens and chances

[CN810]

Alright I'm bad at math, but really desire a riven for one of these primaries: Grakata, Rubico, and Sybaris. What are the chances I get a rifle riven mod from a sortie and recieve one of these? And, approx how long would it take?

[Unohound]

I associate how hard the riven challenge is with what weapon is will be for (hard challenge= a weapon with higher disposition, visa versa). but i dont think its true. though 3 rivens out of over 50 (idk exact number)  weapons is gonna be hard but possible. GL 

[(PSN)Lollybomb]

Odds of a rifle riven mod from a sortie: 6.79%

There are ~70 rifles, thus ~1.4% chance of a specific weapon (assuming all things equal in this regard).
You want one of three, so ~4.2% chance a given rifle riven will end up for a weapon you want.

Overall odds of getting a riven from a sortie for one of those three weapons is thus ~0.2%.  Basically, "Don't get your hopes up."

[Makunogo]

Its randomly generated. for example if u had a veiled riven when a new weapon comes out u do have a chance to get that weapon. so its completly random.

if you want to for sure get a specific riven its generally cheaper to just buy it. and save yourself the trouble.

Edit. Fyi Grakata and sybaris cost less then a veiled rifle so you can just snag those two and begin rolling. rubico however is not that cheap. but if you are determined. you can easily farm some prime sets and be able to buy a rubico riven within the week (or even a day with enough trades)

Edit 2. there is still rifles that i have not received ever. again its completly random. you may never get it. you may get several. if u have time to earn the plat i highly suggest what i said in edit 2. if you are currently loaded u can go ahead and reveal veiled rifles but it will cost a bit and you aren't guaranteed a result you want.

Edited November 30, 2018 by Makunogo

[(PSN)thowed]

The Grakata and Sybaris are dirt cheap on PS4 so probably are on PC too.  Thatd be your best bet.  Rubico is get extremely lucky or pay.

[(PSN)robotwars7]

5 hours ago, CN810 said:

Grakata, Rubico, and Sybaris.

odds of a drop? better to just not think about it, because when you state you want something, it's the last thing you get. probability and numbers are all well and good, but as a general rule of thumb, just try for it while assuming you won't get it, it's what I'd do.

as for trading, Grakata Rivens are probably somewhat cheap as it's non-meta, and you can pay less for a trash roll and put your own Kuva in it and hope for the best, that's what most people do. Rubico is a pricey one though, and people will seriously gouge you if you want a decent roll, Sybaris ones are sort of in-between: trash rolls for Sybaris aren't too bad, good rolls with Crit can be costly.

ultimately it depends on whether you are willing to trade, willing to buy trash rolls and use your own Kuva (and farm for said Kuva should you run out), willing to buy good rolls, willing to negotiate prices and how much you're willing to grind Sorties for these Rivens specifically.

 

[Kobrakai]

The first week I started sorties I got rivens for Lanka, Rubico and Amprex. Now all I get are sculptures. I think I used up all my luck.