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Riven drops


RunningChaos
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Let me start by saying, I don't get rivens with every sortie, but when do get it's ALWAYS a crap melee one. (For a CRAP melee weapon). I really don't know why I even bother doing sorties. What is the drop chance of rivens and can't DE fix this stupid melee drop rate.

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There is an obvious solution. Sell veiled mods for plat if you don't feel lucky opening them.

However let me reming you that most of the weapons considered 'crap' by the community aren't crap at all. (Except it isn't some Dakra P all the time).

And looking from another side it's at least better than having an ayatan-streak.

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I'm sorry, but I'm doing sorties for like 2 years now and I haven't seen a Riven. Is that some kind of new Warframe? Weapon? Does it appear often?

Jokes aside, I know RNG and stuff and whatever, but c'mon 1-2 rivens a month isn't that much to ask for, right?

48 minutes ago, Urlan said:

According to DE's drop tables, the chance is 6.79% for a riven mod.

Dunno where DE stated this %, warframe wiki says it's 27,9% to get a riven mod. Mind giving me a source :) ?

EDIT: Nvm, you just posted the chance of rifle riven, not all of them.

 

Edited by deothor
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2 hours ago, RunningChaos said:

Let me start by saying, I don't get rivens with every sortie, but when do get it's ALWAYS a crap melee one. (For a CRAP melee weapon). I really don't know why I even bother doing sorties. What is the drop chance of rivens and can't DE fix this stupid melee drop rate.

They recently changed the drop tables, until a couple months ago (maybe even little less) riven were way more common and veiled rifle riven changed from being sold at 30 plat to pretty much double.

I don't have any source but I'm pretty sure that when the game rolls for your prize and you get a riven there is a second roll to determine the type and it is like a second drop table with its own rarity, something like this: melee<pistol<primary(rifle<shotgun). Riven have indeed became more rare but it might be a good thing. Just don't expect to get one so you will be surprised when it happens. Crappy advice I know but you can either be disappointed from high expectations or take the prize with a speck of philosophy and walk on. I use the second approach and I feel great

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Longest streak without riven drop is 14 sorties. Got 1 riven and the draught continued. When I got fed up with the drop rate... I started purchasing riven from them market. It was 30-40/rifle riven and was quite easily available. Until a month or 2 ago, the price doubled and the number of rifle riven available in the wf market is getting lesser.

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Wait for the Melee 3.0 update. In the last weapon overhaul they buffed over 100 primaries and secondaries and I'm expecting similar results with the melee changes. It might not change the meta, but it'll certainly make a lot of weapons feel better to play.

Also, if your mindset is "it's top kek meta or it's utter garbage", you gonna have a bad time with Rivens.

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9 hours ago, RunningChaos said:

Let me start by saying, I don't get rivens with every sortie, but when do get it's ALWAYS a crap melee one. (For a CRAP melee weapon). I really don't know why I even bother doing sorties. What is the drop chance of rivens and can't DE fix this stupid melee drop rate.

If you're really dissatisfied with the "crap melee weapon" rivens you have, feel free to look me up in-game. I'll take those off your hands for you and I'll even give a couple terrible-dispo Rivens for on-meta weapons that I have, because that's how the Riven system is structured.

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16 hours ago, deothor said:

I'm sorry, but I'm doing sorties for like 2 years now and I haven't seen a Riven. Is that some kind of new Warframe? Weapon? Does it appear often?

Jokes aside, I know RNG and stuff and whatever, but c'mon 1-2 rivens a month isn't that much to ask for, right?

Dunno where DE stated this %, warframe wiki says it's 27,9% to get a riven mod. Mind giving me a source 🙂 ?

EDIT: Nvm, you just posted the chance of rifle riven, not all of them.

 

Yes, that is correct! For some reason I thought you needed a chance at rifle rivens instead of all of them. Sorry about that. Its important though, that they are ordered separately as individual chances in that official table while the total might indeed add up to an ayatan's chances, they are listed as rare chances despite their category on the in-game chart, and as they are individual chances, you are still much more likely to get a sculpture.

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17 hours ago, Urlan said:

According to DE's drop tables, the chance is 6.79% for a riven mod. Now some have the question towards if there is a further weighting applied to those chances or not, but for now we don't have an official answer yet.

With 50+ weapons in each category (shotties excluded), growing quarterly.

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30 minutes ago, Urlan said:

as they are individual chances, you are still much more likely to get a sculpture

Because the six listed Riven rewards are all mutually exclusive, meaning you can only receive one of them from a single Sortie drop, you *can* simply add their probabilities up.  This means the total probability to get any type of Riven is 27.9%, versus the statue's probability of 28%.  They now have almost the same drop rate.

Note that all of the Sortie rewards' probabilities add up to 100%, which is also required because they are all mutually exclusive.  You have 100% chance of getting *something* from a Sortie.  This is how probability works when dealing with a single drop event like a Sortie.

Edited by Buff00n
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1 hour ago, Buff00n said:

Because the six listed Riven rewards are all mutually exclusive, meaning you can only receive one of them from a single Sortie drop, you *can* simply add their probabilities up.  This means the total probability to get any type of Riven is 27.9%, versus the statue's probability of 28%.  They now have almost the same drop rate.

Note that all of the Sortie rewards' probabilities add up to 100%, which is also required because they are all mutually exclusive.  You have 100% chance of getting *something* from a Sortie.  This is how probability works when dealing with a single drop event like a Sortie.

Oh, absolutely, but notice how their individual chances are "rare". When you roll the dice, it would normally get the most common chance, which is your sculptures. Think of the table as a wheel of chance, with a nice big sculpture slice of the pie and several small rare riven chances strewn around the circle. The biggest singular chance is going to have a better chance of the metal orb staying in its spot than many little cut-outs. It would be different perhaps if the riven chances were all next to each other, essentially making one consistent riven cut-out, but than can not be assumed by a drop table. So while their combined chance should be one amount, that is not how the game of chance sees them.

1 hour ago, (PS4)teacup775 said:

With 50+ weapons in each category (shotties excluded), growing quarterly.

Thankfully, the number of weapons themselves never effects the chances for a riven's acquisition but rather what it can become when unveiled. Either way, when you get one for a weapon that has good disposition that is decent enough to get in the first place it can be a real boon, either for trade or usage; while if its for a weapon that has bad disposition or is already too weak for most use; you just have something that takes up limited space or trades in for the least amount of endo on the reward chart.

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1 hour ago, Urlan said:

Think of the table as a wheel of chance, with a nice big sculpture slice of the pie and several small rare riven chances strewn around the circle. The biggest singular chance is going to have a better chance of the metal orb staying in its spot than many little cut-outs. It would be different perhaps if the riven chances were all next to each other, essentially making one consistent riven cut-out, but than can not be assumed by a drop table. So while their combined chance should be one amount, that is not how the game of chance sees them.

The only thing that matters is the total area on the wheel, and not whether that area is contiguous or partitioned. 

Think of a Roulette wheel.  Ignoring the green 0 and 00 spaces, there are 36 slots, numbered 1 to 36, alternating red and black colors around the wheel.  The chance of rolling somewhere in the 18 slots on the bottom half of the wheel (32, 51, ..., 10) is exactly the same as rolling a red slot: 50%, even though the first is contiguous and the second is not.  Put a different way, the chance of rolling any one of 32, 15, 19, 4, or 21, which are right next to each other on the wheel, are exactly the same as rolling any one of 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5, which are not next to each other.

RNG drops are just a scaled up version of this.  Instead of 36 discrete slots there is a continuous circle, with segments of varying sizes dedicated to each reward.  If they're using single-precision floating point in their RNG, then you can think of this as a Roulette wheel with 2^24 slots.  If a particular reward is partitioned into multiple non-contiguous segments, then the only difference that makes is possibly a rounding error at the extra borders which, with 2^24 slots, is going to be so small that it makes no practical difference.  The far larger rounding error is in the published drop tables, which only give drop chances to 5 decimal digits of precision.

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4 hours ago, Urlan said:

Thankfully, the number of weapons themselves never effects the chances for a riven's acquisition but rather what it can become when unveiled.

Yeh but each weapon adds to the pool and like you say the chances of a desired weapon type riven to roll from an unveiling, especially as the pool of "eh" weapons expands. This is why the riven flippers go for shotties. The pool is smaller and the set of weapons generally good.

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28 minutes ago, (PS4)teacup775 said:

Yeh but each weapon adds to the pool and like you say the chances of a desired weapon type riven to roll from an unveiling, especially as the pool of "eh" weapons expands. This is why the riven flippers go for shotties. The pool is smaller and the set of weapons generally good.

Yeah, I can totally understand that mindset and strategy.

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On 2018-12-09 at 7:49 AM, RunningChaos said:

Let me start by saying, I don't get rivens with every sortie, but when do get it's ALWAYS a crap melee one. (For a CRAP melee weapon). I really don't know why I even bother doing sorties. What is the drop chance of rivens and can't DE fix this stupid melee drop rate.

I want complain like that,sortie always drop melee and pistol not rifle or shotgun

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23 hours ago, (PS4)Cargan2016 said:

rivens are actually ment to make those "crap mele weapons" atleast good enough to passably usable which is why you will get far better stats on a good roll on a crap weapon riven than a meta weapon riven

And that's the main problem with rivens... No riven can make a crap weapon good, but they can make good weapons completely imba.

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23 hours ago, (PS4)Cargan2016 said:

rivens are actually ment to make those "crap mele weapons" atleast good enough to passably usable which is why you will get far better stats on a good roll on a crap weapon riven than a meta weapon riven

Too bad they don't actually work like this in practice and instead make the top tier weapons come out even further ahead of the garbage tier weapons.

Edited by DishSoap
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