Very bad luck

[Thywaz]

Hey,

 

So i was wondering, i did 14 Neo M2 Radshares (Mesa P Systems) and never had the rare part, how bad luck is that ? Like 5% chance to happen ?

Is it possible that it's bugged ?

 

Thanks !

[EvilChaosKnight]

Tbh, it's actually 0,9^(14*4) *100% = 0,2% chance. 

That is implying that rad relics aren't a ruse XD

[MagPrime]

Sounds pretty normal, honestly. 

[(PSN)WetPollito]

Welcome to Warframe! 

[-Krism-]

15 minutes ago, Thywaz said:

Is it possible that it's bugged ?

[Tsukinoki]

13 minutes ago, Thywaz said:

So i was wondering, i did 14 Neo M2 Radshares (Mesa P Systems) and never had the rare part, how bad luck is that ? Like 5% chance to happen ?

Is it possible that it's bugged ?

With 14 full rad shares you have about a 99.72~% chance of getting the rare item.
And you got unlucky and never got it.

It happens.

0.28% chance is bound to happen to lots of people.  You just happened to be one of the people that it happened to.

Welcome to RNG, where nothing is guaranteed.

And just FYI the formula to calculate your odds of getting something from a system like relics is:
1 - (1-P)^N
Where P is the probability of what you want happening (For a radiant relic that is 10% chance to get the rare item), and N is the number of attempts.

For example your case would be:
1 - (1-0.1)^56
Simplified that would be:
1 - 0.9^56

I seriously doubt its bugged.  You just had some bad luck here.
Its entirely possible (though more and more unlikely) to go through 30 full rad shares and never get the rare item.  And while highly unlikely it is far from impossible.

[Thywaz]

Okay thanks, i just never had such bad luck in 6 years of Warframe...

 

And ofc, it had to be on the frame i want the most :u

Edited June 24, 2019 by Thywaz

[Son_of_Anubis]

4 minutes ago, Thywaz said:

Okay thanks, i just never had such bad luck in 6 years of Warframe...

 

And ofc, it had to be on the frame i want the most :u

Welcome to the everlasting grind, that questions your sanity after 4 days. By the way the crazy punch is on the left and ignore old salty hes just really salty.

Anyhow enjoy your stay

[EvilChaosKnight]

One of the things I personally noticed tbh, is that the game seems to keep track of one's inventory when giving out drops. I first spotted it back in the void key era when Odonata Pr was released, and my friend and I went after BP. We were farming T1 (or was it T2?) Capture for approx 2-3 hours. Burning dozens of keys in the process. Then it finally dropped.

Right after it happened, we did another dozen or so runs, and Odonata Pr BP suddenly started dropping every 2-3 runs, sometimes even dropping 3 times in a row.

So call it a conspiracy theory or anything, but I have a feeling that the game actually tunes down the chances of getting the item you don't already own and increases the odds of duplicates. Esp. if you are one component away from completing a set. I mean it's RNG right? You can't never be certain, but it sure makes hiding "behind the scenes" mechanics so much easier. Like, if you are farming a normal boss-drop frame, how often did you find yourself trying to get one missing bit of otherwise complete set over and over and over again? To me and many people I know, it happened a little too often to blame pure RNG.

[Kaotyke]

[Tsukinoki]

1 hour ago, EvilChaosKnight said:

how often did you find yourself trying to get one missing bit of otherwise complete set over and over and over again?

Say hello to confirmation bias.
You remember the times it went poorly far better than the times it went well.  You can probably name a dozen times off the top of your head when things went wrong, or took a while, but how many times can you name where you got it in only 5-6 runs?
And yet I'm willing to bet money that there have been plenty of times you got what you wanted in 5-6 runs, you just don't remember them because it went smoothly and well.

I got wisp in 4 runs.  Will I remember this the next time I'm farming for the new frame and it takes me 30 runs?  Or will I remember all the times of all of the other frames where I didn't get the helmet until the 30th run?

1 hour ago, EvilChaosKnight said:

I have a feeling that the game actually tunes down the chances of getting the item you don't already own and increases the odds of duplicates. Esp. if you are one component away from completing a set.

Your chances of getting a given piece is always the same.  All that is happening here is that it doesn't feel as good because you have a higher chance of getting something you already have than what you need.

Take Wisp for example:
To start with you have 100% chance of getting a part you don't have, as you don't have any.  A 22.56% for the BP, 25.81% for the chassis, 25.81 for the neuro, and 25.81 for the systems.
Say you get the chassis.  You now have a 25.81% chance to get a duplicate and a 74.19% to get a new part.
You're chances of getting a duplicate have raised, and your chances of getting what you don't have did go down...but only because you now own a piece and not because the game is against you.

Say you have everything but the main BP, you have a 22.56% chance of getting the last item, and a 77.44% chance of getting a duplicate.  So you have roughly three to one odds of getting a part you already have.  So the majority of the time you're going to get duplicates since you now only need one more piece.
Its still a 22.56% chance to get the final part, but your perception is different because now every time you don't get the final part you're getting a duplicate of something that you already have.  Instead of going into the grind going "I need X, Y and Z" and not caring what drops you're now going "I need X, why does the game keep handing me Y and Z?"

1 hour ago, EvilChaosKnight said:

Then it finally dropped.

Right after it happened, we did another dozen or so runs, and Odonata Pr BP suddenly started dropping every 2-3 runs, sometimes even dropping 3 times in a row.

An old joke, especially from the MH gamers, is the desire sensor...and this is an exact example of it in action.
The more you want something the less it'll drop...but as soon as you do get it you'll get it in spades.
I remember farming for Rathlos Plates back in MHFU, sure its rare but not that rare.  Took me a few dozen hunts to get the one I needed....and I ended up getting 4 in that battle.

One thing to remember: The human mind loves to see patterns and repetitions in data, even when there isn't any.  Its programmed to find small patterns and extrapolate them.  And this causes problems when it comes to actual randomness (or as close as games can reasonably get), because you'll see a few examples, throw in a bit of confirmation bias, and boom the system is rigged against you.

Also remember that without a large enough sample size, things can look skewed in a random system.  Its only through lots of repetitions that you can start coming close to the "expected" values from random chance, and seeing if you have a system that works well.
There are other ways to get a sense of how correct the drop chances are from a more limited number of trails within a certain probability that what DE says is the truth, and from what I've seen other people on the forums, or on Reddit, post about doing it they do actually come reasonably close to the posted drop rates with high certainty that they are correct.

[(XBOX)zThulsaDoomz]

I wouldn't play the lottery for a while if I were you

[Bioness]

3 hours ago, EvilChaosKnight said:

One of the things I personally noticed tbh, is that the game seems to keep track of one's inventory when giving out drops. I first spotted it back in the void key era when Odonata Pr was released, and my friend and I went after BP. We were farming T1 (or was it T2?) Capture for approx 2-3 hours. Burning dozens of keys in the process. Then it finally dropped.

Right after it happened, we did another dozen or so runs, and Odonata Pr BP suddenly started dropping every 2-3 runs, sometimes even dropping 3 times in a row.

So call it a conspiracy theory or anything, but I have a feeling that the game actually tunes down the chances of getting the item you don't already own and increases the odds of duplicates. Esp. if you are one component away from completing a set. I mean it's RNG right? You can't never be certain, but it sure makes hiding "behind the scenes" mechanics so much easier. Like, if you are farming a normal boss-drop frame, how often did you find yourself trying to get one missing bit of otherwise complete set over and over and over again? To me and many people I know, it happened a little too often to blame pure RNG.

Humans are bad at understanding really big (or small) numbers and tend to place more faith in personal experiences even when math says otherwise.

Unless you have a spreadsheet of data showing hundreds of samples from many different people, you really have no evidence to back up your statement.