Kavat DNA

[RadWords]

Was doing Corrupted mod runs today (Orokin Derelict Capture), and I only got 2 DNA from scanning 40+ Kavats.  Not sure if this is a bug, but it is something that I wanted people to be aware of.

[Zakkhar]

It may or may not be a bug.

It is only 25% chance to get a Genetic Code. Regardless of how many you do it will remain 25% chance. We can say you are unlucky after you scan above 1000 and you get less than 250 codes. Statistics does not work on small numbers. 40+ is considered small number.

One thing I noticed is that I am getting way less Codes whenever I am using Simaris Scanner, instead of Codex Scanner. Just an observation, unsure whether there is anything to it.

[RadWords]

I understand the statistics, but the chance of getting 4 scans in 100+ Kavats (what I ended up recording for the day) is 0.00000155% chance of occurring (100!/[96!4!]) *. 25^(4) *.75^96

I know that it's a relatively small sample (in another game I hit a dummy 10k times with 3 different weapons to determine the proc rates of each weapon's effect, took 2 hours per weapon), but I think that the results were extreme enough to warrant suspicion/concern.

EDIT:  I'll try with the Codex scanner today and see if my results differ.

Edited August 4, 2019 by RadWords

[Lutesque]

The Response to these threads is"Its RNG".... 

Because we're okay with an unnecessary mechanic ruining our experience ? 

 

[Andvarja]

I never get any when I run Nezha and use Divine Spears (the wiki says they're unscannable outright, but that's outdated I guess as they scan just fine and can't be scanned again so it definitely counts - albeit the targeting shadow is a little odd), but I've always been (and still am, tbh) hesitant to say anything about it because I do know how RNG works and this still really could just be a silly coincidence.

I once ran 38 unsuccessful scans in a row using Nezha's impale before giving up and switching to another frame, at which point I started getting them at about the expected rate. But RNG works like that, too.  I've seen a handful of other anecdotal stories of Nezha scans failing to produce any DNA, but it's really just not enough to say there's anything wrong.  And tbh, others are probably out there scanning with Nezha's Divine Spears just fine.

RNG gonna RNG, and issues with it, when they actually arise, can be hard to track down.

Edited August 4, 2019 by Andvarja
clarity, sleep deprivation

[RadWords]

I'm using Nezha as well, so that could be it.  I'll do some more testing for sure.

[RadWords]

More testing done, it definitely seems to be the Nezha 4 that's the problem.

[Zakkhar]

6 hours ago, RadWords said:

I understand the statistics, but the chance of getting 4 scans in 100+ Kavats (what I ended up recording for the day) is 0.00000155% chance of occurring (100!/[96!4!]) *. 25^(4) *.75^96

Great equation, but it does not apply to small numbers.

It does not matter how many times you did it already. It is always 25% chance.

Unless you did it 1 000 000 times and you got far less success results than expected. Then we can talk unlucky.

Statistics is a theory coming out of the experiments with big numbers. It explains how the big numbers normally behave, but it will not apply to smaller numbers especially if the experiment differs a lot from 50/50 (coin toss).

 

Edited August 4, 2019 by Zakkhar

[Lutesque]

1 hour ago, Zakkhar said:

Statistics is a theory coming out of the experiments with big numbers. It explains how the big numbers normally behave, but it will not apply to smaller numbers especially if the experiment differs a lot from 50/50 (coin toss).

Well heres a question ? Doyou think DE are running these 1 000 000 Times before dumping these statistics on us ?

[(XBOX)B1ueKarou]

so, first and foremost, the kavat gene code drop rate is ridiculous, and definitely needs to be changed imho. 

the -only- way that i could do the grind and not feel cheated was to use the synthesis scanner with the widget that has a chance for a double scan, plus a double pickups booster, on a double resource weekend. one genetic code, if the widget procced, gave me something like 8 gene codes, and as unncessary as this whole system sounds, it was really the only way i could be convinced to do the grind with how abysmal the drop rates are.

[Zakkhar]

8 minutes ago, Lutesque said:

Well heres a question ? Doyou think DE are running these 1 000 000 Times before dumping these statistics on us ?

What statistics?

Probability of getting a success in one experiment is not statistics. That is just maths.

All they do is code that.

Edited August 4, 2019 by Zakkhar

[Lutesque]

1 minute ago, Zakkhar said:

What statistics?

Probability of getting a success in one experiment is not statistics.

All they do is code that.

Good... That's All I wanted to know....

 

[Zakkhar]

I mean in general. You grind stuff in Warframe. You do the maths. Somehow your results arent any close to expected value from your maths or from the values on the site (eg. warframe parts)

Where is the problem?

1. Is the maths wrong or were it applied wrong?
2. Were you just eeeeeeeextremly unlucky? (I was looking for a word much more severe than extremly so I decided to use many e's)
3. Or are there other unknown factors (actual different base chance due to bug in code, abilities or items interacting with the chance etc)?

Which point has highest probability chance?

• Okham razor says 1.
• Fatalysts/pesimists say 2.
• Conspiracy theorists (and programmers) say 3.

Edited August 4, 2019 by Zakkhar

[RealJustBoo]

It is stone cold clear DE is NOT doing RNG correctly. Yet they are depending on it seemingly, 100 percent of the time (Pun intended). I figure it's a seed problem. Devastating patterns like not getting even close to 25% after 100+ rolls is Bad Man.

And perhaps some do not know. Computerized "Random Number Generators" are NOT random, it's an approximation. But there are ways to make it work closer to true (high level of entropy) randomness. Using pervasive RNG as a mechanic everywhere is LAZY, that is a fact.