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epiccringe

How am I not getting the Harrow neuroptics after 200 runs on kuva spy

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Rng doesn't garuntee you getting what you want.  You can run something infinently and just never lucky.

Yes it sucks. But thats rng.

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28 minutes ago, (PS4)Kakurine2 said:

Rng doesn't garuntee you getting what you want.  You can run something infinently and just never lucky.

Yes it sucks. But thats rng.

The math doesn't line up here though, even if RNG....that is the problem.

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10 minutes ago, Chappie1975 said:

The math doesn't line up here though, even if RNG....that is the problem.

The math doesn't garuntee anything. It's  all dumb luck. I have spent years in games killing mobs for mounts with a 1% drop rate and never gotten them.

Then some random smuck kills the same mob first time and it drops for them.

All dum luck. Warframe is no different then any other game with random drops.

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4 hours ago, Miser_able said:

Yea, no offense, but I doubt it was 200 runs. 

It was ~100 on a different thread, a few hours before this one.

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6 hours ago, epiccringe said:

How is the Harrow neuroptics drop chance is 11.28% but i'm still not getting it after almost 200 runs. Don't say it's RNG because this is ridiculous.

Make sure you’re hitting all the vaults. It’s Rotation C, so none of them can be failed. 

Meanwhile, I’m RNGesus so if you want someone to run Pago with then let me know. The company might help pass the time in the very least.

 

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It’s harder to not get it after 200 runs than lottery. Did you do ALL THREE vaults in each and every run? It could only drop at the 3 vault. 

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10 minutes ago, EquinoxPrime said:

Meanwhile, I’m RNGesus so if you want someone to run Pago with then let me know. The company might help pass the time in the very least.

Yes thank you for Bringing this up...

This mission and all spy missions in general are faster with 2 Other Players taking the other Vaults....

For Pago Specifically.... depending on the layout of the Tiles.... 2 Players can do it pretty effeciently... 

As usual the players can split the A & B vaults.... However because one of these takes significantly longer to complete.... and Vault C is always far apart from the other two vaults...which ever player finishes the faster Vault can go to Vault C.... this one is simple...  run down the left.... hack the door... hack the vault...  no more than 25 Seconds...

And then the 2nd player can catch up and you can arrive at Extraction pretty close to the same time....

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6 hours ago, Drachnyn said:

Not getting a single neuroptics with 11% drop chance in 200 runs (assuming you get all three vaults everytime) has a 0.000 000 004 02% chance of happening, so while technically possible does seem a bit fishy.

i spent 16 hours doing the mission, and i complete around 12-13 missions in an hour so i believe that god hates me. Also in the few last hours i've been running with a squad so it goes up to about 23 missions per hour

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Gru2pNc.png

Was able to help him get it, believe it took 6-7 runs or so but wasn't keeping track.

Cheers all for the responses!

 

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18 minutes ago, EquinoxPrime said:

Gru2pNc.png

Was able to help him get it, believe it took 6-7 runs or so but wasn't keeping track.

Cheers all for the responses!

 

thank you so much 😛

 

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7 minutes ago, epiccringe said:

thank you so much 😛

 

Anything to help a fellow Tenno. ❤️

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14 hours ago, (PS4)Kakurine2 said:

The math doesn't garuntee anything. It's  all dumb luck. I have spent years in games killing mobs for mounts with a 1% drop rate and never gotten them.

Then some random smuck kills the same mob first time and it drops for them.

All dum luck. Warframe is no different then any other game with random drops.

Ahh.....somebody who doesn't understand statistics.

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Let me tell you a little story about farming Khora.

The chassis has 8.33 % chance of droping. I got it first try

The neuro has 9 % chance. I got it first try

The blueprint has 11.28 % chance. I got it 3 or 4th try i think.

The systems has 11.28% chance. I didn't got it. I farmed for the systems for about 1 week, 2 h a day. And didn't get it. Finnaly i sold some stuff and bought her from the market.

RNG is a cruel god. Sometimes he will be gentle and kind, sometimes will punish you in the most obscene ways possible.

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1 hour ago, Melkfet said:

Let me tell you a little story about farming Khora.

The chassis has 8.33 % chance of droping. I got it first try

The neuro has 9 % chance. I got it first try

The blueprint has 11.28 % chance. I got it 3 or 4th try i think.

The systems has 11.28% chance. I didn't got it. I farmed for the systems for about 1 week, 2 h a day. And didn't get it. Finnaly i sold some stuff and bought her from the market.

RNG is a cruel god. Sometimes he will be gentle and kind, sometimes will punish you in the most obscene ways possible.

If you think that is bad I farmed her when the c rotation drops were 3% drop rates.

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Faster to farm relics and sell rewards for plat to buy him outright. That's how I farm for every frame. I don't farm for the frame, I farm for the plat for the frame. Unless you get lucky on first 2-5 tries then, that is obviously the quicker method. But if they are annoying missions I don't like doing, I usually go with the relic route. 

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The joy of mathematics - you've flipped a quarter 100 times and gotten heads every time.  What's the chance you get heads on flip 101? Hint - it's not the same as the chances of getting 101 heads in a row.  

Just cause you have an 11% chance, doesn't mean it's impossible to roll 200 dice and never get <= 11 (or >=189 as the case may be).

Congrats on finally getting it!

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On 2019-08-13 at 5:13 PM, epiccringe said:

How is the Harrow neuroptics drop chance is 11.28% but i'm still not getting it after almost 200 runs. Don't say it's RNG because this is ridiculous.
EDIT: ay bois I got it finally after 65 years of grinding (shoutout to @EquinoxPrime for making my dream come true)

It says on the wiki 

Drop Chance Expected Nearly Guaranteed
Chassis Blueprint 3.00% 33 – 34 kills 227 ± 76 kills
Neuroptics Blueprint 11.28% 8 – 9 C Rotations 58 ± 19 C Rotations
Systems Blueprint (Tier I) 2.01% (Rotation B)
7.52% (Rotation C)
10 – 11 C Rotations 69 ± 23 C Rotations
Systems Blueprint
(Tier II & III)
2.01% (Rotation B)
11.28% (Rotation C)
7 – 8 C Rotations 48 ± 16 C Rotations

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30+ attempts so far in the last 4 days, still no Harrow Neuroptics.  And before you say 'it's RNG', note this:  In those 30 tries, I've gotten 16 Power Throws as the C-rotation loot drop.

It's not JUST RNG, something else is wrong, especially given that the Harrow Neuro and Frostbite are both 11.28% drop chance, while everything else (including Power Throw) has a 6.45% drop chance.  I took Probabilities and Statistics in college.  I can tell you that I understand RNG, as well as the difference between the 'chance' of something dropping, and the 'odds' of something dropping.

The ODDS of Power Throw (with the lower drop chance) dropping 16 times out of 30 runs is so astronomical, as to be impossible in a truly 'RANDOM' roll.  Something is broke.

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15 hours ago, TheBalrogTx said:


The ODDS of Power Throw (with the lower drop chance) dropping 16 times out of 30 runs is so astronomical, as to be impossible in a truly 'RANDOM' roll.  Something is broke.

But its not impossible...... you just proved that 🙂

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On 2019-08-14 at 7:35 AM, Chappie1975 said:

Ahh.....somebody who doesn't understand statistics.

They're not wrong. While it's unlikely that something with a 11% chance won't happen over 200 tries, it's not impossible. No matter how many times you've tried, each individual attempt is still only an 11% chance. A die doesn't know or care how many times you've rolled it- it gives you the same odds every time (theoretically). As long as you're dealing with finite sample sizes, you're never guaranteed anything with less than a 100% chance to happen.

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