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Are We In Another Famine?


WondahBoah
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Alerts are on a cycle, every item will come through. If I recall, there was already a catalyst or reactor alert not too long ago.

Alerts are not on a cycle. Every item is not guaranteed to come through. The the more an item comes up in a row, supposedly the less it's supposed to come up until other things have popped. Which kinda makes it so better things come up more often. But they aren't cycling. We technically aren't guaranteed to get a Reactor or Catalyst.
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Alerts are not on a cycle. Every item is not guaranteed to come through. The the more an item comes up in a row, supposedly the less it's supposed to come up until other things have popped. Which kinda makes it so better things come up more often. But they aren't cycling. We technically aren't guaranteed to get a Reactor or Catalyst.

 

Is that so? I guess DE lied or I dreamed up that live stream where they talked about the new alerts.

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Is that so? I guess DE lied or I dreamed up that live stream where they talked about the new alerts.

nah, they really did say that, but there is more than enough reason to question if that is actually true or not.

just the other day we had the jaw sword about an hour apart from another jaw... iirc we just had one about 30 min ago too.

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Potato alerts are just the rarest thing nowadays.... and I distinctly remember DE saying they would end the famine for good with the last alert adjustment...

 

I can't nourish my weapons and frames properly without potatoes, they'll starve

 

The new alert system, and what DE expressly described in the livestream, runs on a progressively weighted RNG, which has insured periodic RNG potato alerts rather than floods and droughts.

 

This means:

a) Repeats can still happen.

b) There is no absolute guarantee.

c) The increased probability of an object after being passed over IS numerically enforced, not just as a probabilistic average across an infinite number of repeats.

 

What does this mean? You can't expressly expect anything on X cycle or Y interval. It does mean that rare potato alerts do and have happened, but remain rare and randomized, just not infinitely random.

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Alerts are on a cycle, although it's like looking at a line of pendulums with different frequencies. It appears to be utterly random. when taken as a whole.

 

AFAIK items have a 0% chance at the start of the cycle, and a 'maximum length' where its chance reaches 100%.

For example: Something with a 'length' of 10 days would have its chance increase by 10% every day. That's 0% at the last occurence, 10% the next day, 20% the following, so on so forth until the tenth day where it MUST occur due to the 100% success chance.

 

Say it runs the number at one day after, and due to a staggeringly happy (or drunk) RNG god it succeeds the roll despite the 90% chance for it to fail. Item alert happens, and chance resets to zero.

 

I imagine potatoes have a maximum length of about 2 weeks~a month.

 

EDIT: of course I have no actual knowing of the intimate workings of Alert2.0, but this makes sense to me personally. Not saying that this is how it is, just that it's how it probably is. As proven some time ago, I suck at statistics and barely got passing marks on that subject.

Edited by Shion963
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Alerts are on a cycle, although it's like looking at a line of pendulums with different frequencies. It appears to be utterly random. when taken as a whole.

 

AFAIK items have a 0% chance at the start of the cycle, and a 'maximum length' where its chance reaches 100%.

For example: Something with a 'length' of 10 days would have its chance increase by 10% every day. That's 0% at the last occurence, 10% the next day, 20% the following, so on so forth until the tenth day where it MUST occur due to the 100% success chance.

 

Say it runs the number at one day after, and due to a staggeringly happy (or drunk) RNG god it succeeds the roll despite the 90% chance for it to fail. Item alert happens, and chance resets to zero.

 

I imagine potatoes have a maximum length of about 2 weeks~a month.

 

EDIT: of course I have no actual knowing of the intimate workings of Alert2.0, but this makes sense to me personally. Not saying that this is how it is, just that it's how it probably is. As proven some time ago, I suck at statistics and barely got passing marks on that subject.

 

Your theory doesn't account for same day repeats, which have happened, and as I remember at least one was not crossing the standard reset point. The simpler explanation that fits DE's description is a simple weighting modification to a set table.

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Given we got three jaw sword in less than 48h, something's wrong (a heavy unit's approaching).

Otherwise it seems to be mostly helmets, a dark dagger, a pangolin sword, a glaive, a brokk, a ceramic dagger, and a dagger axe.

 

The website I looked up can't even remember the last potato alert...

 

Last reactor was 18th of September (edit: and yes, a RNG reactor alert did happen literally hours before the livestream, 18th of September was Golden Potato Paradise), last catalyst was 13th of September, and those are ignoring livestream alerts.

Edited by Okai85
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The website I looked up can't even remember the last potato alert...

Kala-azar (Eris): Distress Call Located - 117m - 4800cr - Orokin Catalyst (Blueprint)

7:31 PM - 13 Sep 13

 

wasnt that the tater from the live stream?

 

edit:

ninjas.. ninjas everywhere...

Edited by alchemistjkt
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I'm confident that potatoes will pop up regularly, however I am concerned that missing a potato alert will result in a very low chance to get it again. I myself have more than enough blueprints for either type, but I find this to be a concern should a potato alert happen at 4:00 a.m. local time. 
Missing two potato alerts in a row would leave me with no new potatoes for around two months. It won't kill me, but it has the potential to frustrate.
Currently, more than half of  my potatoes come from livestream alerts.
Since I don't use them very often, I have 'savings'. 
But just putting this out there. 

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