collecting murmurs (36/60/84 after update 26.1)

[yilmazdurmaz]

On 2019-11-20 at 3:46 AM, yilmazdurmaz said:

After Hunt Stats (give or take 1 on each):

• 40 murmurs for 1st requiem

 

6 minutes ago, Renegade343 said:

Yeah, you stabbed the Lich twice before you got all murmurs. I'm saying never stab the Lich until you get all murmurs. That way, you have a base to work with.

I will be glad if try then come and share your result 😅 It is exhausting process trying to keep the tracks, especially if you a hunt now, trying to finish it before the test is takes stamina. You may also miss a murmur while doing that. Thanks joining the hunt btw 😄

[Renegade343]

Just now, yilmazdurmaz said:

I will be glad if try then come and share your result 😅 It is exhausting process trying to keep the tracks, especially if you a hunt now, trying to finish it before the test is takes stamina. You may also miss a murmur while doing that. Thanks joining the hunt btw 😄

And in that hunt you showed, you stabbed the Lich twice afterwards before all murmurs are collected, so you can't exactly verify whether it is 40/65/90 or something eles.

Your tests do need a solid baseline to start working with.

[yilmazdurmaz]

1 minute ago, Renegade343 said:

And in that hunt you showed, you stabbed the Lich twice afterwards before all murmurs are collected, so you can't exactly verify whether it is 40/65/90 or something eles.

Your tests do need a solid baseline to start working with.

That is why I am still asking fellow Tenno, like you, to help on the numbers. I have a basis to start with the numbers here so you know how long the fight goes on. We just don't have exact numbers since we don't yet have a reply from [DE]s.

[timbo_james]

14 hours ago, yilmazdurmaz said:

Here is a quick tip: The line in the circle is 45 degrees exactly. I took a screen shot, zoomed in, and used protractor. Neat 😄

so when you reach this line at first hunt, it takes 1/8 of total. It is roughly 5 murmurs in first circle making the deduced 40. I say rough because of the thickness of the shapes. 7-8 is for 2nd circle and 10-11 is for last. Also completion from end to end of this line takes 1/2 so you can also take a shot of calculations there.

Eager to hear your results, good luck 😉

I'm using CAD, no messy protractor against screen work. I don't have an easy way to show what I'm doing, but screenshot, pull image into Solidworks, draw a circle and measure over the lines using lots of anchor points for accuracy. Yeah, the rendered pixels get a little fuzzy, but it's accurate enough. And yes, the bisecting line is an additional anchor, shows as 44.9% in my CAD model.

I did a more comprehensive analysis of third requiem circle and I show it to be smack dab on 91.

14 hours ago, Renegade343 said:

Yeah, you stabbed the Lich twice before you got all murmurs. I'm saying never stab the Lich until you get all murmurs. That way, you have a base to work with.

This is a fair point and I agree that until we KNOW the requiem reveal totals (assuming each thrall counts as 1 and the reveal requirements are constant) we cannot be sure of the stab attempt values. I've been only doing base thralls and converted thralls. I'm about to finish my Lich and on the next one I will gather corroborating data on first and second requiems using only thralls. To be fair, the OP has gathered some good data and I'm sure he'd also like to, you know, kind of play the game for fun too. We can only ask so much from one person. Playing solo slows you down a lot, counting thralls accurately is tedious and can add stress to an otherwise easy mission, never stabbing your lich (when you need to) in order to preserve data accuracy is another slow down. We need other independent testing from other folks more than we need more data from the OP.

[Renegade343]

7 minutes ago, timbo_james said:

This is a fair point and I agree that until we KNOW the requiem reveal totals (assuming each thrall counts as 1 and the reveal requirements are constant) we cannot be sure of the stab attempt values. I've been only doing base thralls and converted thralls. I'm about to finish my Lich and on the next one I will gather corroborating data on first and second requiems using only thralls. To be fair, the OP has gathered some good data and I'm sure he'd also like to, you know, kind of play the game for fun too. We can only ask so much from one person. Playing solo slows you down a lot, counting thralls accurately is tedious and can add stress to an otherwise easy mission, never stabbing your lich (when you need to) in order to preserve data accuracy is another slow down. We need other independent testing from other folks more than we need more data from the OP.

I'll do it once my IRL stuff is completed. I don't mind menial work.

[yilmazdurmaz]

someone has an un-referenced change to numbers on wikia, 36/60/84. Wish they gave a link where they found it.

I could finally download the update, start a new hunt, got close results but not the same for the first 2 requiems..

I have also a disturbing news here: thralls do not give exact +1.

To the end of second circle, I tried something else: I quit the mission and repeated to see if numbers change. I did 6 runs, quitting after the second requiem opened message. I had 54 murmurs counted before this mission, and these 6 trials had 6-7-7-7-9-8 counts, to complete the circle.

Just 2 circles took me almost 4 hours, and tired me a lot. I will continue tomorrow.

Edited November 25, 2019 by yilmazdurmaz

[yilmazdurmaz]

I finished the last circle. And by my luck, with 2 requiems open, I finished the whole hunt in just 1 try.

I tried last mission 3 times for the 3rd circle. I had 74 collected, and 10-10-11 thralls made the last requiem opened. Then, in last one, I tried my luck on my Lich.

The numbers are consistent to be 36/60/84. I will edit my original post to reflect this number. I will then give a long break to my hunts, at least solo ones.

 

[MBouh]

I encountered my lich two missions in a row this weekend, and coincidentally, I was beginning the third requiem. I did only on mission in the third requiem before these. So after three missions, I was barely beyond the first line cross on the circle. Which means that in three missions and two lich tries, I got about 15% progress on the third requiem. Which means either a lich try does not award 10 murmures or the total number of murmures for the third requiem is far above 100. I think the first is most probable.

Seeing what's said in the last days, it seems we know a lot less than we thought. And as far as we know, a thrall doesn't give one unit of murmure. Actually, it could be that there is a set number of murmure required to find each requiem but thrall give a random number of murmures like we loot a random number of rubedo or credits on enemies.

But I think it will be easier if we reason in unit of thralls killed, at least we can relate it to something we can count.

I also think DE changed the numbers in some updates. Of course there is the distribution going from 100%/100%/100% to 60%/60%/140% and then 60%/100%/140%, but I think the number of murmures for 100% also changed. The value of 60 we have now might as well be our new baseline.

The screenshot idea is neat. I'll do that from now on. It will be easier to play first and process then.

Another thing I'm trying to figure out is the odds of your lich attacking in a mission, but this is even more blurry than murmure count.

Edited November 26, 2019 by MBouh

[yilmazdurmaz]

35 minutes ago, MBouh said:

Another thing I'm trying to figure out is the odds of your lich attacking in a mission, but this is even more blurry than murmure count.

I don't suggest this 😅 One of my liches was very eager she came 3 times in a row, all after failed attempts with angers reset, and 4-5 total  in 7 missions. It was a very fast hunt 🤣 

 

[timbo_james]

With railjack stuff and being generally burned out on murmurs, I did gather another couple data points on second requiem reveal. Each 'measure' showed a total of ~63 and my measurement error may be 1. This was after 26.1.3 hotfix.

On 2019-11-24 at 6:14 PM, yilmazdurmaz said:

someone has an un-referenced change to numbers on wikia, 36/60/84. Wish they gave a link where they found it.

I could finally download the update, start a new hunt, got close results but not the same for the first 2 requiems..

I have also a disturbing news here: thralls do not give exact +1.

To the end of second circle, I tried something else: I quit the mission and repeated to see if numbers change. I did 6 runs, quitting after the second requiem opened message. I had 54 murmurs counted before this mission, and these 6 trials had 6-7-7-7-9-8 counts, to complete the circle.

Just 2 circles took me almost 4 hours, and tired me a lot. I will continue tomorrow.

This would explain A LOT. And that was a clever way to test the theory, kudos. When I do one of my screenshot measurements with a low number of thralls, say 6-9, my numbers can go bonkers. I absolutely can measure these circles within 2deg certainty (again, pixels get fuzzy, but not that fuzzy). 2 deg is 1/2 a murmur on a 90 murmur total circle just as an example. With a low numerical count as a referenced sample, I was sometimes generating circle totals that were way off. I just threw those data points out assuming there was a glitch or I somehow miscounted thralls. Larger samples, say 15-20 with converted thralls or spanning count over two missions, everything evened out better. This would also explain DE's cryptic statement that an attempt would grant 10x as much progress as a thrall ON AVERAGE. It appears the whole systems is very loosely defined. I have no clue on earth why they would do this.

So we can never nail down the stupid reveal requirements because the units feeding them aren't even fixed value. Maybe the second bubble is 300 murmurs and each thrall is granting an RNG 1-10 murmurs. Whatever it is, it's frustrating and I'm generally just burnt out on the whole Lich deal. I think I enjoyed trying to quantify the system more than actually working on the Liches. Now that the system has proved to be layers of RNG under layers of RNG, I think I'm done, but I applaud the effort you guys have put forth.

[Chroia]

On 2019-11-21 at 2:44 PM, GruntBlender said:

30/50/70 is the official number. The Nov. 6 update notes said 30/30/70, but were edited on the 10th to say 30/50/70. Most people, myself included, missed the edit.

THANK YOU.

I was internet-talking about Murmurs a while ago, and mentioned 30/30/70, and everyone goes 'wtf you on about?', so I go look it up and see 30/50/70.
Had me doubting my sanity a little.
I feel much better now.

Goddamn un-noted ninja-edits. >_<

^{This makes 2 wrt The Old Blood that I'm aware of, the other being that Requiem mods are consumables.}

[MBouh]

OK, I have new ideas to account for all this.

First, I multiply baseline murmures by 10, so it's 300/500/700 murmures.

Second, thralls give a random amount of murmures when killed like carbide for example. They would drop between 5 and 15 murmures, average to 8.

If you consider that you need 63 thralls for the second requiem, it fits because 63x8=504. And it accounts for the random numbers we get. And it's plain numbers because I don't like dots.

Thirdly, I feel like there is a maximum number of murmures you can get in any given mission. I'd say 150.

Fourth, I think the lich anger is tied to the thralls you kill or the murmures you collect, and there are thresholds for her to attack in a mission. For example, I think there is a threshold at 200, so when you reach more than 200 murmures, or if it is when you killed 25 thralls, the lich attack, no matter what. And this threshold decrease with anger level. And when she reach enraged, the threshold is low enough that you can reach it in every mission. But like assassins you need to stay long enough for her to show anyway.

I have little to backup my last two hypothesis, so please tell me if you have examples to disqualify them or better ideas.

 

[yilmazdurmaz]

On 2019-12-11 at 11:01 AM, MBouh said:

OK, I have new ideas to account for all this.

First, I multiply baseline murmures by 10, so it's 300/500/700 murmures.

Second, thralls give a random amount of murmures when killed like carbide for example. They would drop between 5 and 15 murmures, average to 8.

If you consider that you need 63 thralls for the second requiem, it fits because 63x8=504. And it accounts for the random numbers we get. And it's plain numbers because I don't like dots.

Thirdly, I feel like there is a maximum number of murmures you can get in any given mission. I'd say 150.

 

There seems we now have another hunter (or maybe one of you) trying things. I am not sure about his/her methods so cant try anything for now. but your idea here is interesting enough for me 🙂

I haven't touched Liches over a week and  I just started Railjack missions thus will spend sometime there. Maybe another week, then will try your numbers with video hunts this time (at least for me to count, because my internet is limited and cant upload hours of hunt videos 😛 )

Anyways, as I said before, Lich anger is really something else. Their anger should be reset after each attempt meaning you need many missions before making them angry again, yet I had mine to come with zero anger 3 times in a row.