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Can't wait to see the complaints if railjack part 2 comes today/tomorrow

mrhapps

By mrhapps,
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HowDenKing

HowDenKing

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49 minutes ago, 16Bitman said:

Using SAM is really tempting, but both Warframe and Steam have a 0 tolerance policy on cheating, so I'm not risking it even though I never heard of anyone getting banned for it.

IMO Steam should also have a 0 tolerance policy on unobtainable achievements.

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M3tallius

M3tallius

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Can confirm that since I moved to the standalone launcher, steam achievements do not unlock properly. I'm actively looking at my rail jack in the steam client right now and I don't have the achievement. Lulz I only log into the steam version for tennogen here and there now.

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mrhapps

mrhapps

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8 minutes ago, Askorti said:

How big is the chance that the update will come today/tomorrow?

 

8 minutes ago, HowDenKing said:

essentially 0%

based on getting a hotfix on monday and tuesday last week (monday hotfix is uncommon), but then never again last week after those it feels to me like they were trying to get it done for last week but ran out of time. I feel like there's at least a decent chance we get part 2 this week

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IIDMOII

IIDMOII

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They better not. It would have entirely defeated the purpose of getting a head start. 12 hour build times, forced mutagen mass collection, and then the last 2 parts needing 15 argon crystals....some of us have real life to attend to.

Mastery Rank isn't any kind of benchmark or milestone. It's a meaningless number beyond 15. There is very little incentive after 15 to continue playing the 'mastery fodder' loop. 

I think the mastery rank system is in need of an overhaul. Being forced to use unranked, low level junk for xp isn't fun. Especially when that xp amounts to zilch.

 

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Loza03

Loza03

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38 minutes ago, HowDenKing said:

essentially 0%

Today, yes, just because they don't update on Tuesdays.

Tomorrow I'd give probably a little under 50-ish... we'll know based on what they say about Devstreams, most likely. If they cancel Devstream, chances of this week jump up tremendously. They could also give an indication of a Rising Tides style dual stream alongside Steve. However, if they announce a 'normal' stream, then chances are pretty near 0. Basically, we'll know what we're looking at tomorrow, no sooner.

1 minute ago, IIDMOII said:

They better not. It would have entirely defeated the purpose of getting a head start. 12 hour build times, forced mutagen mass collection, and then the last 2 parts needing 15 argon crystals....some of us have real life to attend to.

Mastery Rank isn't any kind of benchmark or milestone. It's a meaningless number beyond 15. There is very little incentive after 15 to continue playing the 'mastery fodder' loop. 

I think the mastery rank system is in need of an overhaul. Being forced to use unranked, low level junk for xp isn't fun. Especially when that xp amounts to zilch.

 

Probably not the best place to voice this opinion.

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Loza03

Loza03

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4 minutes ago, bad4youLT said:

mind linking me source ?

Here's the first time I believe they mentioned something along these lines.

They might have mentioned it since then (perhaps Steve Stream) but this is what I'm aware of.

(Side note: here we also see reason 2 of why DE doesn't like doing deadlines. They - or it seems, Steve - is absolutely terrible at predicting them)

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DoomFruit

DoomFruit

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1 hour ago, Spoop3 said:

That’s exactly what happens, your least favorite Kuva Lich shows up and calls you a poopoo head for failing to build it. Then you get eaten by the sentient mosquitos.

The former would be interesting, since I've stayed well clear of the "lich" bullS#&$ pile and haven't made a single one. I'm going to guess that the game will crash on a null pointer dereference.

As for railjack proper coming tomorrow? Damn right I'd complain. There's no way in hell that it's anywhere near ready. They've had 3 years to work on this kingpin system and we ended up with "liches" as a result. And that's a relatively minor change. A whole new game mode with its own place on the solar system? I'd be surprised if the mission even loaded.

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nslay

nslay

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Now from those percentages you showed, what proportion of those players were actively playing when the Railjack was introduced?

For example, if 1% of all Warframe Steam players that ever played since the game appeared on Steam were active up to and during Railjack, then your statistic would imply that 20% of those players have built the Railjack. That actually sounds believable. I don't know a single person who hasn't been involved with Railjack on my friends list.

There's also probably lots outliers. For example, Warframe is F2P and easy for players to install and try ... what proportion of all Warframe Steam players that ever played Warframe since it appeared on Steam have played the game for less than 1 hour? I mean, this period of game play is no different than a trial version of a game in the old days. Those players should not appear in any measurement... though I doubt Steam throws those outliers away which would explain some of their really dubious statistics they show.

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Circle_of_Psi

Circle_of_Psi

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15 minutes ago, Loza03 said:

Side note: here we also see reason 2 of why DE doesn't like doing deadlines. They - or it seems, Steve - is absolutely terrible at predicting them)

Well, this is a massive understatement if I ever heard of it

We'll have to see what Wes-Friday brings us and not "Show it on devstream first" (cuz that helps us, how?)

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nslay

nslay

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Posted (edited)

I know there's a Steam achievement for number of revives (revive your allies 1000 times?). You can use this to normalize Steam's statistics.

p(playerHasRailjack) = 0.002 (from Steam)
p(playerRevivedAllies >= 1000 times) = ? (look this up)

So, what is the probability playerHasRailjack given that playerRevivedAllies>1000? Use Bayes' theorem...

p(playerHasRailjack|playerRevivedAllies >= 1000) = p(playerRevivedAllies >= 1000|playerHasRailjack)*p(playerHasRailjack) / p(playerRevivedAllies >= 1000)

Unfortunately, we don't know p(playerRevivedAllies >= 1000|playerHasRailjack)... I know I have railjack but have not revived 1000 allies yet (I think I'm in the 900s though!).

BUT, we can bound it

p(playerRevivedAllies >= 1000|playerHasRailjack)*p(playerHasRailjack) / p(playerRevivedAllies >= 1000) < p(playerHasRailjack) / p(playerRevivedAllies >= 1000)

If RHS is larger than or equal to 1, it's not a very useful bound. You'll need a different achievement to better estimate it for most likely active players. It's only useful and interesting if RHS < 1.

Edited by nslay
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Loza03

Loza03

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Just now, Circle_of_Psi said:

Well, this is a massive understatement if I ever heard of it

We'll have to see what Wes-Friday brings us and not "Show it on devstream first" (cuz that helps us, how?)

I mean apparently he wanted a demo of Railjack to be live shortly after Tennocon 2018. I think I made a joke about it around that time.

It's not so much the content of the devstream, and more the status of its release. If it's cancelled, or stated to be similar to 133 (AKA just Rebb, not the other devs/Steve stream at the same time), then it's more likely we'll see Empyrean this week because it's a pre-release all-hands-on-deck situation. If not, and it's just a normal stream, then DE aren't in the pre-release panic mode, and thus it's unlikely we'll see Empyrean show up.

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(PSN)sweatshawp

(PSN)sweatshawp

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3 hours ago, mrhapps said:

Is1YpeO.png

05BHvPn.png

^^^^^^^^^^^^subtract 1.4% of this to account for the people that cheated steam achievements^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

bgFmwD9.png

^^^^^^^^^^^^subtract 1.4% of this to account for the people that cheated steam achievements^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

with 4-5% of the population in game probably waiting for this update that's A LOT of people who don't have the railjack built. In March 2019 warframe reached 50million register users. Extrapolating those numbers about 2 million people have completed up to the sacrifice and a teralyst, 50 000 have reached MR28, 100 000 people have built their railjack fully. 

While I am aware that not everyone of that 50m plays on steam, i doubt that the differences in achievements would be substantial between launchers, the numbers i have in this post would be different but they would probably still have the same ratio.

If/when people complain about having to build their parts don't forget to remind them they had nearly 2 weeks to build it.

Personally me being on console I don't see the need for more tedious grind. I would've preferred a long quest line to start this process rather then more clan related stuff. Being that rail jack is going to be part of the story I just don't think it should've been tied into another "grind" of sorts rather then a possible cinematic quest line that presents more lore about the ships 

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mrhapps

mrhapps

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, nslay said:

I know there's a Steam achievement for number of revives (revive your allies 1000 times?). You can use this to normalize Steam's statistics.

p(playerHasRailjack) = 0.002 (from Steam)
p(playerRevivedAllies >= 1000 times) = ? (look this up)

So, what is the probability playerHasRailjack given that playerReviviedAllies>1000? Use Bayes' theorem...

p(playerHasRailjack|playerHasReviviedAllies >= 1000) = p(playerReviviedAllies >= 1000|playerHasRailjack)*p(playerHasRailjack) / p(playerReviviedAllies >= 1000)

Unfortunately, we don't know p(playerReviviedAllies >= 1000|playerHasRailjack)... I know I have railjack but have not revived 1000 allies yet (I think I'm in the 900s though!).

BUT, we can bound it

p(playerReviviedAllies >= 1000|playerHasRailjack)*p(playerHasRailjack) / p(playerReviviedAllies >= 1000) < p(playerHasRailjack) / p(playerReviviedAllies >= 1000)

If RHS is larger than or equal to 1, it's not a very useful bound. You'll need a different achievement to better estimate it for most likely active players. It's only useful and interesting if RHS < 1.

5HXVdT7.png

shocker, its nearly the same as the amount that completed the sacrifice quest (which i was comparing to normalize recent players). 

 

Edited by mrhapps
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nslay

nslay

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Just now, mrhapps said:

5HXVdT7.png

shocker, its nearly the same as the amount that completed the sacrifice quest (which i was comparing to normalize recent players). 

Yikes!

p(playerHasRailjack|playerRevivedAllies >= 1000) < 0.002/0.049 = 0.04081632653

Pretty small number!

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