Can't wait to see the complaints if railjack part 2 comes today/tomorrow

[mrhapps]

2 minutes ago, nslay said:

Yikes!

p(playerHasRailjack|playerRevivedAllies >= 1000) < 0.002/0.049 = 0.04081632653

Pretty small number!

you need to also remember that was the achievement %, and u need to remove the 1.4% players that just batch completed their achievements for whatever reason.

also, this achievement is alot harder to get now that everyone revives themselves instead of waiting nowadays which is why i used the sacrifice for normalization of recent players

[nslay]

Just now, mrhapps said:

you need to also remember that was the achievement %, and u need to remove the 1.4% players that just batch completed their achievements for whatever reason.

also, this achievement is alot harder to get now that everyone revives themselves instead of waiting nowadays which is why i used the sacrifice for normalization of recent players

Well, is there any other achievement that can give some sense of play time? The Sacrifice is not that great either because players can rush these quests. Eidolon hunts can also be completed by a leacher.

[NeomanSeraph]

I mean none of this is a serious issue; RJ prob won't be released for an entire month and the expectation is that players can use each other's railjack while still collecting their personal, account-bound rewards.
Also keep in mind tons of players prob never even reach Second Dream. It's why so many MMOs focus on starter areas, most players never bother getting to the endgame.

Worst comes to worst, DE can just drop the build requirements. Which IMO is a good idea, 6 mil credits is rough if you're not like me with more resources than sense.

[mrhapps]

2 minutes ago, nslay said:

Well, is there any other achievement that can give some sense of play time? The Sacrifice is not that great either because players can rush these quests. Eidolon hunts can also be completed by a leacher.

two more interesting ones at least to me (they havent been around as long as sacrifice/masteryrank/eidolon achievements so less likely to have high cheated number)

[Loza03]

Just now, NeomanSeraph said:

I mean none of this is a serious issue; RJ prob won't be released for an entire month and the expectation is that players can use each other's railjack while still collecting their personal, account-bound rewards.
Also keep in mind tons of players prob never even reach Second Dream. It's why so many MMOs focus on starter areas, most players never bother getting to the endgame.

Worst comes to worst, DE can just drop the build requirements. Which IMO is a good idea, 6 mil credits is rough if you're not like me with more resources than sense.

I'm fairly sure that DE made the build requirements for newer players to limit how much they could rush getting a Railjack, not for older ones, hence why we even have Rising Tides. It's probably a part of the whole 'new player experience' thing - as many people pointed out at the time, PoE and especially Fortuna suffered from being right in the firing line for new players, so DE are taking steps to make sure people are well equipped by basically stopping them from rushing it.

We know what we're doing though, so they gave us Rising Tides to get into position.

[nslay]

34 minutes ago, mrhapps said:

two more interesting ones at least to me (they havent been around as long as sacrifice/masteryrank/eidolon achievements so less likely to have high cheated number)

The Bayes rules can be used to get rid of the cheaters. Just add them as a condition.

p(hasRailjack|longTimePlayer AND not MR29+)

One sec, doing some pen and paper stuff.

EDIT:

First an assumption:

Let M = mastery rank, N = number of revived allies

Assume: p(N >= 1000|M>= 29) = 1

In words: All cheaters have revived 1000 or more allies.

With some rewriting using Bayes rule:

1 = p(N >= 1000 | M >= 29) = p(M >= 29 | N >= 1000)*p(N >= 1000)/p(M >= 29)

p(M >= 29)/p(N >= 1000) = p(M >= 29 | N >= 1000)

Using negation, we get:

1 - p(M >= 29| N>= 1000) = p(M < 29 | N >= 1000) = 1 - p(M >= 29)/p(N >= 1000) ~ 0.714

We know that p(M >= 29) ~ 0.014

Now for the Bayes rule and bound!

p(hasRailjack | N >= 1000 AND M < 29) = p(N >= 1000 | hasRailjack AND M < 29)* p(M < 29 | hasRailjack) * p(hasRailhack) / [ p(M < 29 | N >= 1000) * p(N >= 1000) ]

We don't know this term: p(N >= 1000 | hasRailjack AND M < 29)* p(M < 29 | hasRailjack)... so we bound this term by 1 (it's no larger than 1)

p(hasRailjack) = 0.002
p(M < 29 | N >= 1000) ~ 0.714
p(N >= 1000) = 0.049

So

p(hasRailjack | N >= 1000 AND M < 29) <= p(hasRailjack) / [ p(M < 29 | N >= 1000) * p(N >= 1000) ] = 0.002/(0.714 * 0.049) ~ 0.057

So no more than 5.7% of legitimate players that have revived 1000 allies have a Railjack.

 

You can modify this approach with other reference achievements. The values are larger for those that entered the drydock.

Edited December 3, 2019 by nslay

[velsomnia]

We are due for a dev stream on Friday and since they said that Duvari Paradox is coming out this month its pretty much guaranteed that RJ will be out this month, more than likely on Friday. The reason I think that is because that missions starts mid jump on board the RJ, so we have to have battles to get it. Even if Duvari gets pushed back we are still due for The New War and that also appears to need the RJ due to the massive shipyards and such that we have seen in the trailer, plus Cy has been talking about a sentient build up which I believe is The New War quest. So my money is on a devstream release on Friday.

[Loza03]

1 minute ago, velsomnia said:

We are due for a dev stream on Friday and since they said that Duvari Paradox is coming out this month its pretty much guaranteed that RJ will be out this month, more than likely on Friday. The reason I think that is because that missions starts mid jump on board the RJ, so we have to have battles to get it. Even if Duvari gets pushed back we are still due for The New War and that also appears to need the RJ due to the massive shipyards and such that we have seen in the trailer, plus Cy has been talking about a sentient build up which I believe is The New War quest. So my money is on a devstream release on Friday.

They did not say Duviri is coming this month to my knowledge.

Like, we don't even have any gameplay, just a teaser.

[Myscho]

4 minutes ago, velsomnia said:

Duvari Paradox is coming out this month

You mean New War right ? Because Duviri is next year

[mrhapps]

4 minutes ago, velsomnia said:

We are due for a dev stream on Friday and since they said that Duvari Paradox is coming out this month its pretty much guaranteed that RJ will be out this month, more than likely on Friday. The reason I think that is because that missions starts mid jump on board the RJ, so we have to have battles to get it. Even if Duvari gets pushed back we are still due for The New War and that also appears to need the RJ due to the massive shipyards and such that we have seen in the trailer, plus Cy has been talking about a sentient build up which I believe is The New War quest. So my money is on a devstream release on Friday.

my assumption is they update wednesday/thursday for part 2, and devstream shows what part 3 and onwards will be. I really doubt another friday mainline update (weekend bugs not being fixed till monday is bad for business)

[Loza03]

Just now, mrhapps said:

my assumption is they update wednesday/thursday for part 2, and devstream shows what part 3 and onwards will be. I really doubt another friday mainline update (weekend bugs not being fixed till monday is bad for business)

Agreed, unlike Rising Tides, I'm at least... 75% sure they aren't going for a Friday Release. Rising Tides was low risk. Empyrean?

 

Empyrean is straight-up nuclear risk.

[Mr.Fluffins]

I have no idea why people are in such a hurry with railjack... I would rather it to come out later but actually be a compelling mode instead of a one-time gimmick that will be abandoned to be fixed in a year or two.

[Loza03]

Just now, Mr.Fluffins said:

I have no idea why people are in such a hurry with railjack... I would rather it to come out later but actually be a compelling mode instead of a one-time gimmick that will be abandoned to be fixed in a year or two.

I mean, we have Rising Tides. From all we know, it's in a near-done state. Whilst I do encourage taking time for bugs and waiting patiently, at this point the overall product is more or less set.

[velsomnia]

Look they know we are pretty mad at how long we have waited for The Lotus to have any kind of story content and I think that they wouldnt have said hey now you can spend tons of resources to stare at a railjack that you cant even choose colors for unless they were going to release battles this month. The longer we sit at the dry dock stage the more people are going to get impatient, we have already been hyped for railjack for 2 tennocons now and in both of them the game was in a stable enough state to play 2 different missions without breaking anything.

[Troposphere6]

6 minutes ago, Loza03 said:

I mean, we have Rising Tides. From all we know, it's in a near-done state. Whilst I do encourage taking time for bugs and waiting patiently, at this point the overall product is more or less set.

I think that's why rising tide was so delayed not because the update itself was particularly complicated but because empyrean needed to be in a near-done state before it could be released. As you might recall the dry dock was slated to be released with grendel rather than the kingpin system which is why we got the bizarre old blood update.  

[OniDax]

25 minutes ago, velsomnia said:

We are due for a dev stream on Friday and since they said that Duvari Paradox is coming out this month its pretty much guaranteed that RJ will be out this month, more than likely on Friday. The reason I think that is because that missions starts mid jump on board the RJ, so we have to have battles to get it. Even if Duvari gets pushed back we are still due for The New War and that also appears to need the RJ due to the massive shipyards and such that we have seen in the trailer, plus Cy has been talking about a sentient build up which I believe is The New War quest. So my money is on a devstream release on Friday.

Duviri Paradox isn't coming until next year. The next big update that's coming is The New War, and that'll probably release right before Christmas. Considering DE hasn't really shown off any new gameplay of Empyrean, I'm not expect it to drop this year, quite frankly. If it does, I expect it to drop close to The New War, and I expect it to be a very barebones game mode. I don't want that to happen. Yes, I want Empyrean to drop, but I don't want a basic mode that'll never really be expanded. Empyrean needs to be a whole lot more than what they showed off at Tennocon, and I think Steve has said he wants it to be big. So, I'm hoping that, if it releases this month, it'll just be what ties into The New War (including letting us customize the Railjack and start modifying it), but that they'll come back next year and really flesh out the mode so that it can be the expansive system it's supposed to be. All that said, I'm not expecting Empyrean to release this week or even next week, but the week after that at the earliest, with The New War. I could be wrong, but again, given how they haven't shown off anything more of it since Tennocon, I'm not expecting it to be ready this soon.

[Loza03]

13 minutes ago, Troposphere6 said:

I think that's why rising tide was so delayed not because the update itself was particularly complicated but because empyrean needed to be in a near-done state before it could be released. As you might recall the dry dock was slated to be released with grendel rather than the kingpin system which is why we got the bizarre old blood update.  

AFAIK that's pretty much right. At least Devstream 129 implied as such.

[Ham_Grenabe]

32 minutes ago, Mr.Fluffins said:

... instead of a one-time gimmick that will be abandoned to be fixed in a year or two.

But why does Railjack deserve to be special? 😄

[Aldain]

Meanwhile the Switch update is now delayed by yet another week.

-sigh-

[Loza03]

19 minutes ago, Aldain said:

Meanwhile the Switch update is now delayed by yet another week.

-sigh-

🎵Aaaaand that's the history of Nintendoooooooooooooo🎵

Context:

Spoiler

 

 

[Aldain]

Just now, Loza03 said:

🎵Aaaaand that's the history of Nintendoooooooooooooo🎵

Context:

Man I miss Brawl in the Family.

...Great now I'm disheartened and sad.

[Loza03]

1 minute ago, Aldain said:

Man I miss Brawl in the Family.

...Great now I'm disheartened and sad.

I miss it too...

[AegisSiege]

All I know is I want to be able to customize my Railjack... because I know I am going to spend like 2-3 hours getting it just prefect. I would rather do that before I can actually fly it.

[Circle_of_Psi]

2 hours ago, Loza03 said:

I mean apparently he wanted a demo of Railjack to be live shortly after Tennocon 2018. I think I made a joke about it around that time.

Really now?, now that is something an't it?

2 hours ago, Loza03 said:

II's not so much the content of the devstream, and more the status of its release. If it's cancelled, or stated to be similar to 133 (AKA just Rebb, not the other devs/Steve stream at the same time), then it's more likely we'll see Empyrean this week because it's a pre-release all-hands-on-deck situation. If not, and it's just a normal stream, then DE aren't in the pre-release panic mode, and thus it's unlikely we'll see Empyrean show up.

 Maybe, but won't be smarter to not "hold" the update just to meme and show it off, like dangling a turkey leg on a rope from the ceiling? and just give it out, then show it on Devstream, them playing it, getting feedback and answering actual qeastions like "Is New War this year" and explain in full detail of why it's not?, if that is the case?.

Cuz I hate myself for bringing this up, but Destiny 2 is about to release some decent content on the 10th of Dec and people say what they will about the whole thing, but it flocks alot peps and right now, Steam & Twitch are been nothing but D2 players lately, on Twitch and Mixer, D2 has skyrocketed.  

Ture to be told, we'll have to see what happens.

Edited December 3, 2019 by Circle_of_Psi

[Loza03]

1 minute ago, Circle_of_Psi said:

Really now?, now that is something an't it?

It is.

2 minutes ago, Circle_of_Psi said:

Maybe, but won't be smarter to not "hold" the update just to meme and show it off, like dangling a turkey leg on a rope from the ceiling? and just give it out, then show it on Devstream, them playing it, getting feedback and answering actual qeastions like "Is New War this year" and explain in full detail of why it's not?, if that is the case?.

Cuz I hate myself for bringing this up, but Destiny 2 is about to release some decent content on the 10th of Dec and people say what they will about the whole thing, but it flocks alot peps and right now, Steam & Twitch are been nothing but D2 players lately, on Twitch and Mixer, D2 has skyrocketed.  

Ture to be told, we'll have to see what happens.

Honestly, I have no clue what's going on. I'm just waiting and seeing.

And yeah, I saw the trailer. Seems Bungie are bringing the big hype guns.