Jump to content
Dante Unbound: Share Bug Reports and Feedback Here! ×

Reactors : 2% Drop Rate at end of mission is indecent for something with random rolls.


(PSN)Stealth_Cobra
 Share

Recommended Posts

The percentage is actually lower than 2%.

Let is not forget that end of mission rewards are 3 items.

There are a total of 17 items basing this on Flexa - Veil Proxima.

Its 1/17 multiplied by that 2% which gives us the probably of 0.00117647058% or 0.001% rounded up to the nearest number.

Now multiply that by each prize roll which is 3.

0.001% * 0.001% * 0.001% = 1e-15% (that is a lot of zeroes even the calculator gives up).

Our possibly based on probability is damn near to impossible unless you're lucky as fck.

and that was a simplified probability calculation without involving RNG stats.

So getting that perfect reactor is utterly ridiculous.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, MadMattPrime said:

The percentage is actually lower than 2%.

Let is not forget that end of mission rewards are 3 items.

There are a total of 17 items basing this on Flexa - Veil Proxima.

Its 1/17 multiplied by that 2% which gives us the probably of 0.00117647058% or 0.001% rounded up to the nearest number.

Now multiply that by each prize roll which is 3.

0.001% * 0.001% * 0.001% = 1e-15% (that is a lot of zeroes even the calculator gives up).

Our possibly based on probability is damn near to impossible unless you're lucky as fck.

and that was a simplified probability calculation without involving RNG stats.

So getting that perfect reactor is utterly ridiculous.

No. Just no. You don't just throw numbers on a page, multiply them all together and claim "math". 

 

https://warframe.fandom.com/wiki/Veil_Proxima

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's rather sad that 88 percent of the end of mission rewards from the hardest missions are useless filler rewards (relics, Diracs , forma, riven slivers). I mean why should I do 100 missions if i know in advance 88 of them will reward me garbage.

The remaining 12 percent are the rare ship parts we need, but due to random stats, 95 percent of the time they roll unusable / worse than common zekti. And the part we truly need (the Vidar reactor) has 2 percent drops.

Edited by (PS4)Stealth_Cobra
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, (PS4)guzmantt1977 said:

No. Just no. You don't just throw numbers on a page, multiply them all together and claim "math". 

 

https://warframe.fandom.com/wiki/Veil_Proxima

 

Don't be a wussy, statistics are statistics which just shows how retard the probability of the reactor is which is god damn lower than 2%.

Stop being a damn white knight, we all know how ridiculous the drop is. When its not even 2%.

Mission rewards rolls 3 times for 3 items each roll has to compete with 17 items in total and not to mention that the reactor isn't the only 2% drop rate.

1/17 multiply by 2/100 and converting back to percentage that is the LIKELY hood of a player getting the god damn reactor which is TOO god damn low. A less than 0.001% chance of getting the mission reward to roll for the reactor.

Running a mission for thousands or higher amount for a possibility of just getting the item is fine? Not to mention the RNG stats which may possibly be horrible? You also forgot that the damn thing is still buggy as hell!

People are better off reaching Max Instrincts before even getting the darn +60 or higher reactor. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MadMattPrime said:

Don't be a wussy, statistics are statistics which just shows how retard the probability of the reactor is which is god damn lower than 2%.

I quoted you the stats. What you did was try to divide the drop chance by the number of items in the table (which is nonsense because they each have their own drop chances, that's literally how this works). 

Then you tried to take 3 drops and multiply the spurious chances you just made up, to get an even smaller number, instead of adding them. This suggests that you don't know how probabilities work at all. 

Please ask someone to help you to understand what is going on. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, MadMattPrime said:

The percentage is actually lower than 2%.

Let is not forget that end of mission rewards are 3 items.

There are a total of 17 items basing this on Flexa - Veil Proxima.

Its 1/17 multiplied by that 2% which gives us the probably of 0.00117647058% or 0.001% rounded up to the nearest number.

Now multiply that by each prize roll which is 3.

0.001% * 0.001% * 0.001% = 1e-15% (that is a lot of zeroes even the calculator gives up).

Our possibly based on probability is damn near to impossible unless you're lucky as fck.

and that was a simplified probability calculation without involving RNG stats.

So getting that perfect reactor is utterly ridiculous.

What the hell just happened here. Math is insulted sir. OP had a good hold on the averages.

Edited by Skaleek
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, (PS4)guzmantt1977 said:

I quoted you the stats. What you did was try to divide the drop chance by the number of items in the table (which is nonsense because they each have their own drop chances, that's literally how this works). 

Then you tried to take 3 drops and multiply the spurious chances you just made up, to get an even smaller number, instead of adding them. This suggests that you don't know how probabilities work at all. 

Please ask someone to help you to understand what is going on. 

Did you forget that end of mission reward are 3 items? 

Each mission reward is:

1 out of 17 items because there are 17 item (Flexa - Veil Proxima) and a chance of 2% which you need to take into the equation as there are other items that share the same drop rate.

Probability is 2/100 (percentage chance) x 1/17(items chance of correct item) = true possibly (True chance of getting the item)

The reason to multiply by 3 is because mission rewards forks out 3 REWARDS and each roll is individually calculated with the same formula.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't like the random stats, and I don't think the expected time to get a reward corresponds with the longevity of the gameplay Empyrean currently offers. The drop rates in Empyrean suggest that one mission type, with one type of gameplay (because that's what is currently on offer) is meant to last a few to several months. That's unrealistic, and I'm saying that as someone who enjoys it. I'm not sure what DE are thinking, because rng/grind don't extend the lifetime of content, they merely help pace rewards with the pacing of actual content. There just isn't a few or several months of gameplay in Empyrean at the moment. If there were, people woudn't notice the rng/grind (as much). Possibly it might push people to push with things for a little longer than they otherwise would, but then they're taking steps into "the game is not respecting my time" territory. DE should be careful not to push their luck.

Also, we're talking about equipment that affects gameplay. Is DE trying to tell us that players will spend months on this game mode, unlock some of the fancier items (e.g. Void Hole), only then get to enjoy them, and then spend more time playing? I'm afraid that by the time most people get to something like Void Hole they'll have burnt out on the game mode.

DE needs to:

  1. Match the rng/grind to a reasonable, realistic estimate of the longevity of the game mode.
  2. Allow time in their calculations for play *following* the grind, to use the stuff accumulated.

They should not be treating rng/grind as an alternative to gameplay.

 

However ...

 

@MadMattPrime

You're misinterpreting the drop tables. It's not a 1/17 chance for each row in the table, and then a dependent probability to get the item listed. Each row doesn't correspond to a set of items, only one item. The number listed on each row is exactly the chance that the item in that row will drop.

Also, this table only applies to the main reward. The other two rewards are only resources. You don't have 3 chances for the ship components, only one.

Veil/Ruse War Field (Skirmish)
400 Dirac Uncommon (20.00%)
1000 Dirac Uncommon (10.00%)
3X Riven Sliver Rare (5.00%)
Forma Blueprint Rare (2.50%)
Lavan Engines Mk Iii Rare (2.00%)
Lavan Reactor Mk Iii Rare (2.00%)
Lavan Shield Array Mk Iii Rare (2.00%)
Vidar Engines Mk Iii Rare (2.00%)
Vidar Reactor Mk Iii Rare (2.00%)
Vidar Shield Array Mk Iii Rare (2.00%)
Neo T2 Relic Rare (7.22%)
Neo A3 Relic Rare (7.22%)
Neo Z5 Relic Rare (7.22%)
Neo M2 Relic Rare (7.22%)
Neo I1 Relic Rare (7.22%)
Neo R3 Relic Rare (7.22%)
Neo G2 Relic Rare (7.21%)

So, a 2% chance that a Vidar Reactor Mk Iii will be rewarded.

Note that the probabilities listed all add up to 100%. This 2% is out of all the items in the table. There are no other sets of items than what is listed here, nor is there a chance to get nothing.

 

It's different for mod drops from enemies (which I think you are mxing it up with), for example:

Exo Outrider Mod Drop Chance: 10.00%
  Winged Cyclone Very Common (75.88%)
  Phasic Weave Rare (7.37%)
  Squad Renew Rare (7.37%)
  Winged Force Rare (7.37%)
  Void Hole Ultra Rare (1.01%)
  Fiery Phoenix Ultra Rare (1.01%)

 

Void Hole
Enemy Name Mod Drop Chance Chance
Exo Outrider 10.00% Ultra Rare (1.01%)

The 10% at the top of the first table tells us there is a 10% chance for a mod to drop from an Exo Outrider. There is a 90% chance for something else. If a mod does drop, then a 1.01% chance it's a Void Hole. That's when we multiply to get a combined 0.1% chance for Void Hole.

Edited by schilds
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, MadMattPrime said:

Did you forget that end of mission reward are 3 items? 

Each mission reward is:

1 out of 17 items because there are 17 item (Flexa - Veil Proxima) and a chance of 2% which you need to take into the equation as there are other items that share the same drop rate.

Probability is 2/100 (percentage chance) x 1/17(items chance of correct item) = true possibly (True chance of getting the item)

The reason to multiply by 3 is because mission rewards forks out 3 REWARDS and each roll is individually calculated with the same formula.

No. 

The probability of a reward when a reward is given at the end of the mission is 100%.

(6×2)+2.5+5+(7.22×6)+7.21+10+20

The probability of that specific reward is 2%. (That means 2 out of the total of 100, it literally doesn't matter how many classes exist, just that the individual chances all add up to 100/100) 

If you somehow get 3 independent rewards that's 3 chances to get 2/100, so 3×(2/100), not (2/100)³. That's not how multiplication works. If you don't know the difference between cubing the number and multiplying by 3, try it with simpler numbers.

2+2+2 = 2×3 = 6

2×2 ×2 = 2³ = 8

Which one of those is what you understand multiplying by 3 to be? 

 

Please, go ask someone to explain the math to you if you don't want to believe me. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, (PS4)guzmantt1977 said:

No. 

The probability of a reward when a reward is given at the end of the mission is 100%.

(6×2)+2.5+5+(7.22×6)+7.21+10+20

The probability of that specific reward is 2%. (That means 2 out of the total of 100, it literally doesn't matter how many classes exist, just that the individual chances all add up to 100/100) 

If you somehow get 3 independent rewards that's 3 chances to get 2/100, so 3×(2/100), not (2/100)³. That's not how multiplication works. If you don't know the difference between cubing the number and multiplying by 3, try it with simpler numbers.

2+2+2 = 2×3 = 6

2×2 ×2 = 2³ = 8

Which one of those is what you understand multiplying by 3 to be? 

 

Please, go ask someone to explain the math to you if you don't want to believe me. 

Please do you math or visit Wikipedia and grasp the concept of probability.

YOU have a 1/17 chance of getting the item from the mission rewards which is fixed and cannot be interchanged because there are only 17 items on the reward table and you can only get 1. Therefore 1/17 is mandatory.

Then out of the 1 of 17 items you only have the chance of 2% thus the 2/100 as 6 of the 17 items from the reward table share the same 2% drop chance.

Thus hence the probability of getting the item is (1/17) x (2/100) x 100% for the probability of just getting that specific item.

For the reactor it is far smaller (because 6 out 17 items have the same drop rate) probability because of (1/17) x ([6/17 x 1/6] x 2/100) x 100% 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability&ved=2ahUKEwiP08SP4PDmAhWBYysKHXq2A0YQFjAOegQIChAg&usg=AOvVaw0-Ur3g8mx1LC3IBc0BYUcq

https://www.mathplanet.com

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability.html&ved=2ahUKEwiP08SP4PDmAhWBYysKHXq2A0YQFjAhegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw0I6HXbfDZSEggWOXHhNbRg

 

Therefore the probability of a player getting the damn reactor is less than 1%.

 

Drop chance is true at 2% and won't change unless DE changes it.

What i meant was that the changes a player getting it is bullS#&$

Edited by MadMattPrime
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, MadMattPrime said:

Please do you math or visit Wikipedia and grasp the concept of probability.

Dude I'm sorry, I don't think you get it. Every time you complete a mission in the veil you have a 2% chance to get the vidar reactor. This isn't up for debate, this is cold hard fact. I'm not sure what twisted math problem you've created for yourself but it's much more simple then you are making it out to be.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Skaleek said:

Dude I'm sorry, I don't think you get it. Every time you complete a mission in the veil you have a 2% chance to get the vidar reactor. This isn't up for debate, this is cold hard fact. I'm not sure what twisted math problem you've created for yourself but it's much more simple then you are making it out to be.

Exactly.

2% is 2%, that´s already the final result - as pointed out before. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Okay, so there are some confusions about the probability here. Some of you are right, some are not, SO I did the math: 

The basic formula to calulate a porbability of having the item already dropped is calculated as:

P= 1 - (1 - p) ^ x, where p is drop chance and x is number of runs you do.

Let's assume that if P is 95%, we already have the item. We get that x has to be 149. 

That means you have to do 149 runs to have the item almost for sure.

NOW let's assume we get a roll for Vidar from 30 to 100 (that's 71 possible outcomes) with equal chance and let's do the same math.

The x will be 213. You gotta drop Vider Mk III 213 times to get the 100 capacity almost for sure.

You multiply 149*213*30 minutes (average play time) and you get 952 110 minutes. 

That is roughly almost 2 years of non stop playing.... 

Great design !

P.S. If you have time for average one veil mission per day, it will take you 31 737 days to get it. That's 87 years!

👏👏 👏👏👏

 

Edited by Cerikus
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, IamLoco said:

Exactly.

2% is 2%, that´s already the final result - as pointed out before. 

Probability is chance of it happening

How many items are there on the reward table? There are 17 Items in the reward table in total and how many can you get as a reward? Only 1 thus its 1/17 chance of getting the item.

First probability: 1 out 17 simple enough yet? 

What is the percentage of getting the reward out of 100 percent? A mere 2%. 

Therefore 2/100 or 1/50.

Second probability: 2/100 or 1/50

What how many share items share the same drop chance? 6 out the 17 items.

Probability equation part 3: 6/17 (because you can only get 1 item from the reward table) 

The probability of a player getting the SPECIFIC item is:

1/17(Because you can only get 1 item out of the 17 items from the reward table) x ([1/17 (specific item) x {1/6 x 6/17}] (specific item that you want out of the items of that share the same drop rate) x 2/100 (chances of receiving the item as a reward)]) x 100% (to convert into percentage)

 

Probability is different than a drop chance for god's sake

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, MadMattPrime said:

Probability is chance of it happening

How many items are there on the reward table? There are 17 Items in the reward table in total and how many can you get as a reward? Only 1 thus its 1/17 chance of getting the item.

First probability: 1 out 17 simple enough yet? 

What is the percentage of getting the reward out of 100 percent? A mere 2%. 

Therefore 2/100 or 1/50.

Second probability: 2/100 or 1/50

What how many share items share the same drop chance? 6 out the 17 items.

Probability equation part 3: 6/17 (because you can only get 1 item from the reward table) 

The probability of a player getting the SPECIFIC item is:

1/17(Because you can only get 1 item out of the 17 items from the reward table) x ([1/17 (specific item) x {1/6 x 6/17}] (specific item that you want out of the items of that share the same drop rate) x 2/100 (chances of receiving the item as a reward)]) x 100% (to convert into percentage)

 

Probability is different than a drop chance for god's sake

I absolutely do not understand your equation and to be honest I do not even know what I would put into the calculator. It may be able to calculate the same thing correctly, but it would definitely be too complicated. 

The correct way to calculate the probability P of the scenario, that the item has already droped for you is P= 1 - (1 - p) ^ x, where p is drop chance and x is number of runs you do.

For more info read my post above.

Edited by Cerikus
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, MadMattPrime said:

YOU have a 1/17 chance of getting the item from the mission rewards which is fixed and cannot be interchanged because there are only 17 items on the reward table and you can only get 1. Therefore 1/17 is mandatory.

Then out of the 1 of 17 items you only have the chance of 2% thus the 2/100 as 6 of the 17 items from the reward table share the same 2% drop chance.

Thus hence the probability of getting the item is (1/17) x (2/100) x 100% for the probability of just getting that specific item.

For the reactor it is far smaller (because 6 out 17 items have the same drop rate) probability because of (1/17) x ([6/17 x 1/6] x 2/100) x 100% 

Again. The number of classes isn't a factor, because they all add up to 100, two of which are the reactor that you want. 

So 

2 ÷ [(6×2)+2.5+5(7.22×6)+7.21+10+20] 

2 ÷ [100]

2 %

 

 

This would apply if there is were only 2 items in the drop table and one dropped 98 times and the other 2 times, or if there were 50 items each dropping 2 times out of the 100. 

 

 

There's a reason why so many people are disagreeing with you here. 

21 hours ago, (PS4)guzmantt1977 said:

No. Just no. You don't just throw numbers on a page, multiply them all together and claim "math". 

 

https://warframe.fandom.com/wiki/Veil_Proxima

 

 

 

I am not asking you to just believe me, I'm asking you to have someone you trust, explain the whole thing to you. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Cerikus said:

I absolutely do not understand your equation and to be honest I do not even know what I would put into the calculator. It may be able to calculate the same thing correctly, but it would definitely be too complicated. 

The correct way to calculate the probability P of the scenario, that the item has already droped for you is P= 1 - (1 - p) ^ x, where p is drop chance and x is number of runs you do.

For more info read my post above.

Its the equation of the likelyhood of getting a specific item aka Probability.

Because the reward table has 17 items and you can only receive 1 out of the 17 possible items and if all the items had the same drop rate. The chance of getting X item will always be 1/17.

However because of the difference in drop chances of the items we have to factor them in into the probability equation and since probability is multiplicative.

 

(1/17 (one possible reward out) x Y/100) x 100% = the actual probability of getting X item on a run.

This is just a probability calculation. 

Toss a coin what is the probability of heads its always 1/2. Roll a dice what is the probability of getting a 1? Its always 1/6.

What is the probability of getting a head while rolling a dice to get a 1?

Its 1/2 x 1/6.

 

Same concept applies too the drop table only its more convaluted because of the different drop rates and items share the same drop rate

 

Edited by MadMattPrime
Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, MadMattPrime said:

Its the equation of the likelyhood of getting a specific item aka Probability.

Because the reward table has 17 items and you can only receive 1 out of the 17 possible items and if all the items had the same drop rate. The chance of getting X item will always be 1/17.

However because of the difference in drop chances of the items we have to factor them in into the probability equation and since probability is multiplicative.

 

(1/17 (one possible reward out) x Y/100) x 100% = the actual probability of getting X item on a run.

This is just a probability calculation. 

 

 

That's not how it is implemented in Warframe and to be honest it does not even work like that in probability caluclation. 

It absolutely doesn't matter how many items are in droptable. You have 2% chance to get it. Period. 

You DO NOT get one of 17 items in droptable. You get a draw based on the drop chance.

You are basically saying, that when I flip a coin, I have two posibilites HEAD and TAIL, therefore I calculate (1/2 x 50/100 (50 as in 50% to get head or tail)) x 100%... But that's 25%... You really got the equation wrong.. sorry.

Edited by Cerikus
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@MadMattPrime I'll make one attempt to go through things, after which I'll leave you alone because I think you have enough people @ing you already, and it's difficult to do this effectively without proper q&a :-P.

Ok, if I flip a coin, the chance of heads is 50% and the chance of tails is 50%. We might write that in a table as:

Heads 50%
Tails 50%

Do you agree? If not, how would you write it?

 

If I roll a 6 sided dice, the chance of landing on any side is 17% (rounded up). How would you write the chances of rolling each number in a table?

1 17%
2 17%
3 17%
4 17%
5 17%
6 17%

Is that how you would write the table?

 

Now imagine that we number the sides 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5. The number 6 has been replaced with a second 5.

What is the chance of rolling 5? Do you agree that the chance of rolling 5 is now 34% (twice that of the other numbers)? 

How would you write that in a table?

1 17%
2 17%
3 17%
4 17%
5 17%
5 17%

Like that? Or maybe:

1 17%
2 17%
3 17%
4 17%
5 34%

I've merged the two rows with 5 for the combined chance of 5. Is that ok?

If you read the table in words, would you read it like this?

The chance of rolling 1 is 17%.

The chance of rolling 2 is 17%.

The chance of rolling 3 is 17%.

The chance of rolling 4 is 17%.

The chance of rolling 5 is 34%.

Are there any more calculations to do? Don't you just read the numbers straight from the table?

Would you agree that the chance of 5 is just 34% and not 1/5 x 34/100 ?

 

Assuming you agree up to this point, how would you interpret the following table?

A 10%
B 20%
C 15%
D 35%
E 20%

Do you read the table like this?

The chance of A is 10%.

The chance of B is 20%.

The chance of C is 15%.

The chance of D is 35%.

The chance of E is 20%.

Do you agree there are no more calculations to do? You just read it straight from the table?

What is the chance of C?

Do you agree that the chance of C is just 15% and not 1/5 x 15/100 ?

 

If you agree up to this point, then apply all of that to the drop tables DE provides. That's how they are meant to be read.

If not, then you'll probably have to go over it with someone in real life and not on an internet forum.

Edited by schilds
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, MadMattPrime said:

Did you forget that end of mission reward are 3 items? 

Each mission reward is:

1 out of 17 items because there are 17 item (Flexa - Veil Proxima) and a chance of 2% which you need to take into the equation as there are other items that share the same drop rate.

Probability is 2/100 (percentage chance) x 1/17(items chance of correct item) = true possibly (True chance of getting the item)

The reason to multiply by 3 is because HELLO mission rewards forks out 3 REWARDS and each roll is individually calculated with the same formula.

That's not how math works, let alone percentages.

There is a 2% chance for a drop to be a Vidar Reactor. There's a 98% chance that a drop will be something else. Period. None of your stated facts changes those numbers. The 2% chance doesn't go down by stuffing more items into the 98% side of things.

There are three drops. Statistically this means, out of the mission's total drops, you have more than a 2% chance to get one reactor from three drops. Over 3 drops the chance for ONE of them to be an item with 2% drop chance is actually 5.88%. Even the each individual drop still has exactly 2%.

You don't know math, so don't try it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...