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Relic drop rates bugged


greymistbc1
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I have been tracking a number of relic drops that just don't happen... certainly not with the listed probability.

My info.. almost 900 hours played, mostly solo, MR 9.

As of yet, I have failed to get the parts for a Prime (anything). I have a bunch of items where I have two or more of every part except one, that absolutely will not drop.

Easiest example, Lex prime. I was farming the Meso T3 Relic for weeks (before it vaulted), found and cracked the relic a lot, (since the barrel is 'common, I did not not refined). I have 5 Paris lower limbs, a bunch of forma, 3 Chroma Prime Chassis, but I can't get the damned barrel to drop. I cracked at least 13 of them... 13 rolls at 25%, looking at right at 97.6% that the Lex barrel should have dropped.)

I have had similar problems with the Fang Prime, Orthos Prime, and a bunch of others.

I each case, the one remaining part has failed to drop, and the odds for each having failed is above 95% each.

Add to this, the fact that the devs keep 'vaulting' relics, and replacing them with higher relics... basically, they are making it so you cannot get any of the prime items without paying plat.

Pay-to-win. 

Ugly.

I spoke to support..

 

          [DE]Kenneth (WARFRAME Support)

..

          As stated before drops and spawns are set to be random.

..

..I don't think they understand what 'random' means.. at this point, my odd of having the parts for at least one of these Prime items exceeds 99.99%... how many "9"'s does it take to admit there is a problem?

 

 

 

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Please, share your wisdom..

How would you determine if there was a problem with a probability-base event, if not by checking the actual statistics? 

Once you get into 99.(whatever) territory, it become a valid question.

 

Of course, you just sound like a troll, so, enjoy yourself.

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97.6% that it should have dropped means 2.4% that it shouldn't have dropped. And some people get items with 0.01% chance which means your situation is very much plausible.

13 runs is too low to say anything. Also that's why you do "share" runs on relics - if you get 4 people you get 4 times 25% chance per run so in 13 runs you get 0.00000003% that it won't drop which is almost never.

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The DE development team logs and charts a lot of data about all sorts of things, so hopefully if there is something wrong they will find it and fix it.

I do know the feeling, I found 3 out of 4 of the pieces for Ivara Prime on the first attempt doing radshares.

The main blueprint took me 2 tries.  So a string of good luck.

I have had the exact opposite luck on the Baza Prime.  On two of the parts I've cracked over a dozen relics each with no luck.

Sometimes the random numbers are in your favor, sometimes they aren't.  As others have said you'd really need to open at least hundred relics to be able to see a trend.  Thousands would be needed to make sure your numbers are correct.

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