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Shotgun Status needed a fix, but this wasn't it.


(XBOX)TehChubbyDugan
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They showed the Corinth, of all things for their example.  The Corinth is one of the few crit shotguns, it has terrible base status.  Tigris Prime was what everyone was screaming for in chat, and I feel like there's a reason they didn't show it off.

Chance per Pellet = 1 − (1 − Status Chance)(1 ÷ Pellet Count)  That's the current formula pulled right off the wiki.

The current per pellet status of the Corinth, per the wiki and the formula is 2.1% per pellet.  They said they were increasing status by 3x and they showed the Corinth with 6% per pellet, which says to me that they are increasing per pellet status and not current sheet status, which makes the math doable (since the current calc for status doesn't work with over 100% status at all.)

This probably means that the new Tigris Prime per pellet status went from 4.36% (current) to 13%.  We can see from Rebb applying a 90% status mod to the Corinth's 6% base status that it goes up to 11.4% which means that status mods are effecting pellet status directly and there's no other funky math going on.  That means with all 4 60/60 mods on a Tigris prime you're looking at a drop from 100% pellet status (current) to 44% pellet status, or 48% pellet status if you go with 3 60/60's and the new upgraded 90%.  Less than 50% for each pellet on a shotgun where half the draw of the weapon is it's 100% status chance.  The Tigris and Exergis were already declining in popularity due to tiny magazine and atrocious reload times, considering their high damage niche was already being filled elsewhere.  Even if those "special double procs" are insanely strong, these weapons are pretty much dead in the water.

I have a feeling these status changes are going to be a massive nerf to every high status shotgun and most likely an insane buff to high fire rate weapons with even moderate status.

 

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This.

Every single status shotgun will now be mostly useless, unless the second-level procs are insane, and even then they will be out-classed by every single rifle with a status chance of 15% or higher.

Though the Exergis might be able to squeak through, seeing as how it currently has a ~13.8% status/pellet, which will go up to ~41.4%, which is on the high end.

Sobek will be completely dead, though. ~18% status chance after these changes. That means it will go from 100% status with the right build to ~80% status with the same build. Harsh.

Edited by -AoN-CanoLathra-
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1 minute ago, -AoN-CanoLathra- said:

This.

Every single status shotgun will now be mostly useless, unless the second-level procs are insane, and even then they will be out-classed by every single rifle with a status chance of 15% or higher.

With lethal torrent and barrel diffusion, something like the Aksomati Prime can put over 40 rounds onto a target in a second, based on multishot and fire rate increases over the base.  It does that with more base status than any current shotgun per projectile.  The only thing status shotguns will have is slash procs, and that will be relegated to the high damage ones.  And with armor scaling taking a dip, that's not going to be anywhere near as important anymore, especially since heavy attack melee's reign supreme for hard targets and nearly have the same effective range, factoring in player aim and the fact that most engagements with a shotgun take place close to melee range anyway.  This was their only niche and it doesn't look good.

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1 hour ago, (XB1)GearsMatrix301 said:

Honestly, the math to shotguns is so confusing, I say in this case it’s better to see how it actually works for ourselves before discussing it further.

We already know how it works. DE's explanation of the math was just convoluted and weird, which is unfortunately standard for their math explanations.
I'll try and summarize it a bit better, if it helps:

 

CURRENT STATE
The shotgun "status chance" that you see in the Arsenal window (modded or not) is simply the chance of at least one proc if all pellets hit. This number is the "base" SC that gets modified by Status mods. You can get almost 100% SC by simply firing a lot of pellets at once, even if each pellet has a small status chance.
However, to get exactly 100% SC, the only way for this to be mathematically possible is if every pellet is guaranteed to proc. This is where that magical 100% threshold comes from.
 

DE'S SUGGESTION
All weapons (including shotguns) now display proc chance per pellet as their "status chance". Shotguns' new base SC is determined by their unmodded "per-pellet" SC in the current state-- which is very, very low.
ex. Tigris Prime will have 13% SC. This number may seem crappy at first glance. That's because it actually is crappy.
 

OP'S SUGGESTION
All weapons (including shotguns) now display proc chance per pellet as their "status chance". Shotguns' new base SC is determined by their unmodded "at-least-one" SC in the current state.
ex. Tigris Prime will have 30% SC. This behaves identically at 100% SC as it does now (if we ignore the new double-procs that DE is also adding). The difference is that 99% SC or below is no longer garbage.

Edited by SortaRandom
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I think the change is exactly what was needed. The 100% status shotgun is dead, but 100+% weapons are now a thing. The meta moves on. The difference is that now there's some intuitive sense to the system that works the way other mods do instead of a magic threshold target that makes the difference between barely viable and possibly broken.

Shotgun status being per pellet is no different from burst rifles and machine guns having a status chance per bullet. They've all got multishot mods on and are all going to be dealing out many procs per second, with the percentage shown in the arsenal actually representing how much of the damage falls on those procs, which matters for every status with a DoT and is completely ignored in the present arsenal. 

Meanwhile, the single and only status that really suffers from this is the only one that stacks without having a damage value, Corrosive. And with armor scaling getting nerfed, that's only appropriate. There's nothing special about 100% SC Slash on a shotgun that 100% Slash on any other weapon doesn't do - only Corrosive benefits from being on a shotgun with a huge number of individual procs. (And now that there's a meaningful separate status chance mod, you can actually build for Slash without diluting your procs with 60/60 elemental mods, though perhaps not on most shotguns.)

It's definitely a shotgun nerf in the metaest of meta, but it'll also mean that shotguns can have sane values that can scale normally the way you build everything else, so maybe the base stats will be retouched again if the overall effectiveness is too low. But right now it looks like it's going to halve the ceiling, and I don't see that destroying shotguns as a category when it represents the last 2% of the old system. If you weren't over 95% status on your shotgun previously, it's absolutely a straight buff.

Finally getting rid of this bit of nonsense math is a very big step in the right direction.

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Makes me think whether they actually tried doing some maths and the 3x chance is just a generalization, or did they just go "Okay that sounds about right".

A lot of shotguns that currently sit at 100% chance will drop to below 50%. We're going from "All pellets proc" to "Most pellets don't proc".

I hope that they actually go through shotguns individually and make it that the current status-based shotguns are at least at 70% chance when modded for status.

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I'd say 50% is not "most", but yeah, everything about the presentation implied to me that shotguns were getting individual attention for their status chance stats.

Worth pointing out that this is going to apply to shotguns the mechanic rather than shotguns the category, so the Redeemer and Detron but not the Arca Plasmor and Astilla. 

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There's one thing that we need to remember when doing all this. What we're using them on - what we need 100% status super-strippers/slashers for - is about to get a whole lot squishier. I don't imagine the timing of the changes, coming with the armour nerf, is any accident. If anything, it's likely that this change was thought of for a while but held back because of armour.

1 hour ago, VentiGlondi said:

Makes me think whether they actually tried doing some maths and the 3x chance is just a generalization, or did they just go "Okay that sounds about right".

A lot of shotguns that currently sit at 100% chance will drop to below 50%. We're going from "All pellets proc" to "Most pellets don't proc".

I hope that they actually go through shotguns individually and make it that the current status-based shotguns are at least at 70% chance when modded for status.

This is most likely the case. They said something similar for Melee damage (about 3X higher) but most melee's had the actual individual changes be a bit more or less than that.

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I think there is something we are forgetting: The Multishot stat in the Arsenal. It is behaving differently

Do correct me if I am wrong at recalling:

The Arsenal UI shown on the devstream showed a 13.2 multishot with the cornith when Hell's Chamber was put on. with a modded status chance of 22% per pellet. Important thing to note: When Rebecca added the hell's chamber mod, this status chance did not increase. This makes sense, as this status chance shows the value of 1 pellet.

This would mean your ACTUAL status chance is 290.4% total status chance for all 13.2 pellets. If (that's a big if) the double proc mechanics takes account of total status chance and NOT per pellet, this would mean shotguns will be consistently double or triple procing at only 22% per pellet status chance. 4-triple procs will lead 12 status effects on 13 pellets. This almost completely mitigates the nerf.

Though this is just speculation. I can only say for certain when the update finally drops.

Edited by Aadi880
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Not quite, probabilities don't just add like that. That's why the previous system created a radical function curve in the first place. What it does mean is that every pellet had a raw chance of 22%, including the ones created by the multishot. It's still the chance of the individual pellet that counts when it individually hits a target and rolls for status; the total doesn't matter at that point. 

And the math that led to the radical curve is the chance per one pellet or more proccing once, which is why it can't possibly be more than 100%. Now that status can exceed 100%, they'd actually have to make the arsenal's status chance purely per-pellet even with multishot. 

There's actually a chance a bit under 4% that in 13.2 individual rolls of 22%, none will proc.

Edit: You will, of course, average that 2.9 procs per shell, and most of the time that means at least two procs will be landing, which will presumably be no different than double proccing on a single pellet.

Edit again: To be clear, this is no different from a build corresponding to 96% status after multishot now.

Edited by CopperBezel
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6 minutes ago, CopperBezel said:

Not quite, probabilities don't just add like that. That's why the previous system created a radical function curve in the first place. What it does mean is that every pellet had a raw chance of 22%, including the ones created by the multishot. It's still the chance of the individual pellet that counts when it individually hits a target and rolls for status; the total doesn't matter at that point. 

And the math that led to the radical curve is the chance per one pellet or more proccing once, which is why it can't possibly be more than 100%. Now that status can exceed 100%, they'd actually have to make the arsenal's status chance purely per-pellet even with multishot. 

There's actually a chance a bit under 4% that in 13.2 individual rolls of 22%, none will proc.

Edit: You will, of course, average that 2.9 procs per shell, and most of the time that means at least two procs will be landing, which will presumably be no different than double proccing on a single pellet.

Edit again: To be clear, this is no different from a build corresponding to 96% status after multishot now.

I see. But Steve wanted to show the "total status chance" for some reason. I'm more curious to know how double proc-ing will happen for shotguns. under a pellet base status chance, it seems impossible to double proc, which is why I was speculating that double procs will take total status chance into account, and not a single pellet.

Also, if this is no different to a 96%  status after multishot effects, doesn't that mean its well over 100% for other "current" shotguns? This was for the Cornith, which is crit based. What about the tigris prime, which is status based?

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35 minutes ago, Aadi880 said:

under a pellet base status chance, it seems impossible to double proc, which is why I was speculating that double procs will take total status chance into account, and not a single pellet.

If the weapon's status in the arsenal is over 100%, it can double proc. If not, it can't. But this probably doesn't matter, because two successive procs will presumably have the same effect, and a shotgun with any status at all is likely to give you more than one in a single shell.

35 minutes ago, Aadi880 said:

Also, if this is no different to a 96%  status after multishot effects, doesn't that mean its well over 100% for other "current" shotguns? This was for the Cornith, which is crit based. What about the tigris prime, which is status based?

Not quite sure what you mean here. The Tigris Prime will presumably have a higher status chance than this, but may or may not be able to reach 100%. But I think you're still comparing two different percentages that mean different things. The 96% status after multishot in the current Arsenal represents the chance that at least one proc will happen. The 22% chance displayed in the revised arsenal is the chance that each pellet has to proc a status. In the current arsenal, it's of course not possible to go over 100% status, because the question you're asking, "will at least one proc land", only has a meaningful answer in the range of 0 to 100% chance, in the same way that you can't have a 120% chance of rain on Tuesday.

That's why shotgun status and the arsenal in their present implementation is so bizarre - because with this illustration of 13 pellets, the per-pellet chance moving from 22% to 100% only looks like a change from 96% to 100% in the arsenal display. So, like, the Tigris Prime right now is displayed as having 2.5 times the status chance of the Corinth. Let's go ahead and apply that to the post-fix Corinth numbers, and pretend that a modded Tigris Prime will have a per-pellet status chance of 55% and the same 13.2 pellets to keep it simple. Now let's throw that back into the current arsenal, where we're looking at the percent chance that at least one proc will land: it'll show as a 99.997% status chance, which just means that there's only a 0.003% chance that not a single proc lands. (In reality, in the numbers that count, you will average 7.26 procs per shell.)

Edited by CopperBezel
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16 hours ago, CopperBezel said:

I think the change is exactly what was needed. The 100% status shotgun is dead, but 100+% weapons are now a thing. The meta moves on. The difference is that now there's some intuitive sense to the system that works the way other mods do instead of a magic threshold target that makes the difference between barely viable and possibly broken.

Shotgun status being per pellet is no different from burst rifles and machine guns having a status chance per bullet. They've all got multishot mods on and are all going to be dealing out many procs per second, with the percentage shown in the arsenal actually representing how much of the damage falls on those procs, which matters for every status with a DoT and is completely ignored in the present arsenal. 

Meanwhile, the single and only status that really suffers from this is the only one that stacks without having a damage value, Corrosive. And with armor scaling getting nerfed, that's only appropriate. There's nothing special about 100% SC Slash on a shotgun that 100% Slash on any other weapon doesn't do - only Corrosive benefits from being on a shotgun with a huge number of individual procs. (And now that there's a meaningful separate status chance mod, you can actually build for Slash without diluting your procs with 60/60 elemental mods, though perhaps not on most shotguns.)

It's definitely a shotgun nerf in the metaest of meta, but it'll also mean that shotguns can have sane values that can scale normally the way you build everything else, so maybe the base stats will be retouched again if the overall effectiveness is too low. But right now it looks like it's going to halve the ceiling, and I don't see that destroying shotguns as a category when it represents the last 2% of the old system. If you weren't over 95% status on your shotgun previously, it's absolutely a straight buff.

Finally getting rid of this bit of nonsense math is a very big step in the right direction.

Over 100% status weapons barely exist, it's basically only going to be melee weapons and high status high disposition weapons with a riven.

The problem is that they aren't just taking a shotguns status chance and applying it to each pellet like multishot does. Instead they seem to be using Base Status*3/Pellet Count as the status chance for each pellet which is a massive nerf for shotguns that could hit 100%.

The changes only help crit shotguns get more incidental procs and kill status ones. Anything that couldn't already hit 100% isn't good for status and non-meta 100% status shotguns were only used because of the amount of status procs they could deal and are being completely destroyed.

 

2 hours ago, Aadi880 said:

I see. But Steve wanted to show the "total status chance" for some reason. I'm more curious to know how double proc-ing will happen for shotguns. under a pellet base status chance, it seems impossible to double proc, which is why I was speculating that double procs will take total status chance into account, and not a single pellet.

Also, if this is no different to a 96%  status after multishot effects, doesn't that mean its well over 100% for other "current" shotguns? This was for the Cornith, which is crit based. What about the tigris prime, which is status based?

Probably because it would help hide the massive nerf that 100% status chance shotguns are taking. If it shows something like 700% status chance it looks like a buff to uninformed players instead of the massive nerf from the average of 20+ procs most 100% shotguns would get before. The Tigris Prime is going from an average of 17.6 procs for 4 60/60s to 6.73 procs.

Edited by Rogunz
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39 minutes ago, Rogunz said:

The problem is that they aren't just taking a shotguns status chance and applying it to each pellet like multishot does. Instead they seem to be using Base Status*3/Pellet Count as the status chance for each pellet which is a massive nerf for shotguns that could hit 100%.

You might already understand all of this, but I'm going to lay it out to be clear.

Shotguns have innate multishot, which is the purpose of being a shotgun. Status chance mods modified the number that results after that multishot. If you take an ordinary rifle and add Split Chamber, you'll see the status chance go up somewhat; the individual pellet chance has not changed, but the chance of landing a proc has increased. When you add a 60/60 mod on top, it doesn't add 60% of the base status chance on top, or 60% of the new status chance after the multishot, because the status chance is modified first and then the arsenal computes the chance that one pellet will proc a status given that individual pellet chance. Shotguns have never worked this way.

I'm going to illustrate with simple numbers here rather than real values for the mods: If you had a 50% status chance rifle and added 100% multishot to it, it would have 75% status chance as represented in the current arsenal, because that would be the chance that at least one pellet procs. When you flip two coins, the chances of two tails is 25% and the other combinations together are 75%. However, the individual pellet status chance would still only be 50%.

The same applies to an unmodded shotgun. If a shotgun had just two pellets and showed a 75% status chance, that would mean that each pellet only had a 50% status chance. But if I add 50% status to it, it's modifying that 75% and hits the cap at 100%. That's very different from increasing the 50% chance per pellet to 75% and resulting in a 94% total status chance. In the other direction, a shotgun with a 25% per pellet chance would actually have a 44% resulting status chance. 

For DoT effects like Slash and Toxin, the only thing that matters about status chance is how much of your damage is landing on procs, which is exactly the per-pellet status chance. The two-pellet shotgun that showed a 75% status chance would actually only be converting 50% of that damage into DoT. Meanwhile, Corrosive cares only about the number of procs, and benefits massively from pellet count as the per-pellet status chance increases. 

Whatever the innate number of pellets and status chance, there's a corresponding per-pellet chance that is not just a multiplier on the status chance. So taking the status chance number displayed for any shotgun and then applying it to each pellet would be a massive buff. If our two-pellet shotgun started out at 25% per pellet, its displayed chance would be 50%, so applying that 50% back as the per pellet chance would double the per-pellet chance and result in what the arsenal would call a 75% chance. And the more pellets, the bigger the disparity. (In theory, tripling the status chance per pellet is a massive buff too, but now that those mods are applying as just a multiplier rather than a radical function, it isn't.) 

So it's not just a matter of dividing by the pellet count. A shotgun's per-pellet status chance under the effect of mods is a curve, dependent on its base status chance and pellet count. Making status chance mod on a per-pellet basis (like all other weapons already do) means picking an arbitrary point somewhere on that curve to represent what the original base per-pellet status chance would be, because the mods are not simply applying multiplicatively to an underlying value. What they decided to land on as a baseline approximation for what they want was going to be arbitrary no matter where they plucked it from. If they'd simply taken the unmodded weapon with its unmodded status chance, worked back to the chance per pellet that actually occurs on the unmodded weapon, and used that as the per-pellet chance, the nerf would be massive, because the curved status means that shotguns actually have abysmal per-pellet status chance unmodded. But no straight line is going to approximate a radical function curve.

Edited by CopperBezel
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Shotguns are the only weapon class in the game where having more multishot is an active detriment to the weapon's proc chance. Paired with the traditional slow firing nature of shotguns and under performing critical mods, this change will move them to a position where they excel at nothing, with a few exceptions.

People can try and talk their way around this all they want, but the objective reality is that shotgun status being divided between pellets has always been bad game design. DE is doubling down on a broken mechanic that shouldn't have existed in the first place, and the game's balance will ultimately be worse in the long run because of it.

I am calling this now: This is going to become one of those things that DE refuses to fix for years at a time, while players become more and more fed up with it, like self damage and armor scaling.

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But shotgun status isn't divided between pellets. It never has been and isn't going to be. Multishot mods do not alter the proc chance of individual pellets now, nor will they alter it after the update. Shotguns have an innate multishot, and you could argue that their status chances are set to a value that takes that into consideration, but that's a decision in the individual weapon's stats, not a built in outcome of any math in the system. In shotguns after the update, they'll function identically to burst rifles, where each bullet has a status chance, and multishot only adds extra bullets with equal status chance.

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9 hours ago, XaoGarrent said:

Shotguns are the only weapon class in the game where having more multishot is an active detriment to the weapon's proc chance. Paired with the traditional slow firing nature of shotguns and under performing critical mods, this change will move them to a position where they excel at nothing, with a few exceptions.

People can try and talk their way around this all they want, but the objective reality is that shotgun status being divided between pellets has always been bad game design. DE is doubling down on a broken mechanic that shouldn't have existed in the first place, and the game's balance will ultimately be worse in the long run because of it.

I am calling this now: This is going to become one of those things that DE refuses to fix for years at a time, while players become more and more fed up with it, like self damage and armor scaling.

Not to be an ass or anything, but that's not how the math works at all.

- Adding more multishot does NOT affect a weapon's per-pellet Status chance. It simply fires more pellets. Each individual pellet will behave exactly the same as it did before.
- Status chance is not divided between pellets. People assume this because it works as an approximation in the low-SC regime (e.g. a 10% SC shotgun with 10 pellets has roughly 1% SC per pellet), but the math rapidly falls apart as you approach 100% SC (e.g. a 100% SC shotgun with 3 pellets does NOT have 33.3% SC per pellet).

 

This is a really common misconception, and it always frustrates me whenever I see someone confidently touting it as fact. Even WF Youtubers have been doing this for years despite not having the faintest understanding of the math. (Looking at you, Mogamu.)

Edited by SortaRandom
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3 hours ago, (PS4)jaggerwanderer said:

Has anyone actually watched the devstream?? Look at the kuva kohm Rebecca pull out. It has 90% base status chance on the sheet.

Help me out here, at what point in the video did she show the Kohm? The whole demo of shotgun status is with the Corinth, and correctly displays a per-pellet chance and a number of pellets. That's what everyone's been discussing.

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48 minutes ago, SortaRandom said:

Not to be an ass or anything, but that's not how the math works at all.

- Adding more multishot does NOT affect a weapon's per-pellet Status chance. It simply fires more pellets. Each individual pellet will behave exactly the same as it did before.
- Status chance is not divided between pellets. People assume this because it works as an approximation in the low-SC regime (e.g. a 10% SC shotgun with 10 pellets has roughly 1% SC per pellet), but the math rapidly falls apart as you approach 100% SC (e.g. a 100% SC shotgun with 3 pellets does NOT have 33.3% SC per pellet).

 

This is a really common misconception, and it always frustrates me whenever I see someone confidently touting it as fact. Even WF Youtubers have been doing this for years despite not having the faintest understanding of the math. (Looking at you, Mogamu.)

Whatever... At the end of the day, without detailed combat logging, there is no reliable way to test any of this with precision. We know how rifles work because they're painfully straightforward, as reads on label. "Approximate" is going to be as good as we get until a dev or someone else with forbidden knowledge starts posting some formula.

None of that matters, though. Ultimately, this is an argument of no consequence, as it's missing the underlying point.

The actual problem is that this ENTIRE point of balance seems to be predicated on the idea that balancing around procs per shot makes any kind of sense. Which it doesn't. Inherent multishot should function no differently than any other kind of multi shot in the game. Each pellet should simply roll full status. But it doesn't, because someone with some logic problems decided that doing 8 procs over a second is somehow worse than doing 8 procs every second (just as a rough example), and Shotguns need to be crippled.

I see this inherent assumption repeated in EVERY single discussion about how this is supposed to "balance" something out at least once, and it's such a basic math SNAFU that even a middle schooler should be able to catch it, without even needing the specific calculations.

Here's my actual point: Regardless of what math is being used, if you're not balancing around...

A: Procs per second, because we don't live in a world where only one round can be fired from a gun in a fight.

...And...

B: Factoring in the heaping pile of downsides shotguns come with for the few things they do well.

...This change can do nothing but make the game's balance worse. Especially when the stated goal is to make over 100% status mean something, as this change will make, at the very least, most shotguns unable to attain this (judging by their workshop post anyway).

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We're not approximating. I can show you the math if you like using tables from the wiki and the effects of multishot and status chance mods in the arsenal. It's all very well known information.

The new setup treats shotguns exactly like burst rifles, and does not care that a given five bullets are simultaneous instead of sequential. 

Edited by CopperBezel
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18 hours ago, CopperBezel said:

We're not approximating. I can show you the math if you like using tables from the wiki and the effects of multishot and status chance mods in the arsenal. It's all very well known information.

The new setup treats shotguns exactly like burst rifles, and does not care that a given five bullets are simultaneous instead of sequential. 

Yeah, well, maybe the wiki needs organizing. Maybe you're right, but It doesn't matter. You're engaged in the most blatant case of whataboutery and should be ashamed of yourself. All of this is 100% irrelevant. You're arguing about the color of the drapes inside a house with a collapsed roof and crumbling foundation.

All weapons should be balanced around PPS with the same underlying mechanics. All you've done is added context to why status burst rifles seem to be such complete and utter trash, and why automatics seem to do much better with the same stats. Thank you, for accidentally proving me right.

Edited by XaoGarrent
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