Harrow Systems not dropping

[LousyLegend]

So, I've been doing the defection missions since 4 months already and haven't had a single Harrow Systems drop in this time period. i'm not sure whether there is a specific condition I'm not fulfilling or something. Some advice would be appreciated.

[-CdG-Zilchy]

49 minutes ago, nslay said:

This is the most painful Warframe part to farm... It's a 20 minute run per attempt (8 squads saved) and each attempt is ~11% drop chance. I had to dedicate roughly a week of evenings just to play Defection almost exclusively both times (the second time being for Helminth). I would get 3-5 runs in per evening before I would give up...

I guess Octavia Neuroptics also takes 20 minutes per attempt... but that part has a 22% drop chance.

Only thing I can think of:

Do you run Defection on Caracol, Saturn or Yursa, Neptune? Memphis, Phobos is T1 Defection and has a slightly lower drop chance for Harrow Systems.

Otherwise, keep at it... do a few Defection missions per day and it should eventually drop.

I did a 3.5 hour defection run(500 kavor) and got 4 systems. That's how rare it is.

[Mumra]

I've pretty much given up on Harrow to ever be in my collection.  Each time I try nobody joins because it's a crappy mission type nobody wants to do.  I use Wisp now at least which helps a lot but always get some garbage at the end.. Endo for days... please DE stop with the endo for rotation C stuff, it's extremely insulting.  Is it any wonder that Harrow is hardly seen on any missions? 

[-CdG-Zilchy]

2 minutes ago, nslay said:

Oh... I ruled out that interpretation because that would imply each squad was saved in 25.2 seconds.

nvm checked the old screen shot it was 130 squads so um, that's 17ish rotations but that's before the increase to the drop rate, when it used to only drop at an insanely low rate from rotation C and nothing from B at all.

[nslay]

Just now, -CdG-Zilchy said:

um try again, 62 rotation Cs. 500 SQUADs, not individual kavor.

Oh... I ruled out that interpretation because that would imply each squad was saved in 25.2 seconds.

[-CdG-Zilchy]

15 minutes ago, nslay said:

So 15-16 rotation Cs it sounds like. So you should have got about ~2 systems... you're still really really lucky to have got 4! I guess you were using a Vauban to speed the defectors up?

um try again, 62 rotation Cs. 500 SQUADs, not individual kavor. And no it was 2 Frost, 2 Limbo. Too bad Wisp didn't exist back then.

[nslay]

3 minutes ago, -CdG-Zilchy said:

No it's disgustingly rare to only get 4. 500 squads rescued, divide that by 8. How many rotations ffs, it's very low.

So 15-16 rotation Cs it sounds like. So you should have got about ~2 systems... you're still really really lucky to have got 4! I guess you were using a Vauban to speed the defectors up?

[-CdG-Zilchy]

Just now, nslay said:

Oh. I read it differently... you got an insane number of them for the time you played. I thought you were saying it wasn't rare LOL!

No it's disgustingly rare to only get 4. 500 squads rescued, divide that by 8. How many rotations ffs, it's very low.

[nslay]

1 minute ago, -CdG-Zilchy said:

No I was actually saying that's bloody rare, to only get 4 in such a long ass mission is not good.

Oh. I read it differently... you got an insane number of them for the time you played. I thought you were saying it wasn't rare LOL!

[-CdG-Zilchy]

7 minutes ago, nslay said:

So you got really lucky. That doesn't change the fact that the drop probability is 11% and each one takes ~20 minutes (for a player not like you)... in the amount of time you played, you would have got just ~1 on average.

It isn't so much that 11% is a "small" value.... it's not. It's that each rotation C roll takes about 20 minutes (give or take depending on the layout of the map).

No I was actually saying that's bloody rare, to only get 4 in such a long ass mission is not good. I will say that when I did it was before the added bonus of dropping in rotation B but still, 500 kavor how many rotation Cs is that? 

[nslay]

3 minutes ago, -CdG-Zilchy said:

I did a 3.5 hour defection run(500 kavor) and got 4 systems. That's how rare it is.

So you got really lucky. That doesn't change the fact that the drop probability is 11% and each one takes ~20 minutes (for a player not like you)... in the amount of time you played, you would have got just ~1 on average.

It isn't so much that 11% is a "small" value.... it's not. It's that each rotation C roll takes about 20 minutes (give or take depending on the layout of the map).

[kwlingo]

5 hours ago, LousyLegend said:

So, I've been doing the defection missions since 4 months already and haven't had a single Harrow Systems drop in this time period. i'm not sure whether there is a specific condition I'm not fulfilling or something. Some advice would be appreciated.

welcome to the club

[nslay]

This is the most painful Warframe part to farm... It's a 20 minute run per attempt (8 squads saved) and each attempt is ~11% drop chance. I had to dedicate roughly a week of evenings just to play Defection almost exclusively both times (the second time being for Helminth). I would get 3-5 runs in per evening before I would give up...

I guess Octavia Neuroptics also takes 20 minutes per attempt... but that part has a 22% drop chance.

Only thing I can think of:

Do you run Defection on Caracol, Saturn or Yursa, Neptune? Memphis, Phobos is T1 Defection and has a slightly lower drop chance for Harrow Systems.

Otherwise, keep at it... do a few Defection missions per day and it should eventually drop.

[-CdG-Zilchy]

1 hour ago, taiiat said:

for a quick sanity check when dealing with Probability, take your expected number of samples for a success (so if we're talking about 11.28% per Rotation, 1/0.1128==8.8652), and triple that.
that is the rough number of samples that you should hit before you start to think about if something seems off.

and then, you increase your samples up to about 10x the expected number of samples, and if then there is still no hit, then is when i would start to look to compare to others and to start questioning things.

(so that would be ~27 and ~88 samples, respectively)

 

there's also the B Rotation Chance to consider, but for the sake of example simplicity, i excluded that.

Damn mathematician, don't hurt my head like that :(

[taiiat]

for a quick sanity check when dealing with Probability, take your expected number of samples for a success (so if we're talking about 11.28% per Rotation, 1/0.1128==8.8652), and triple that.
that is the rough number of samples that you should hit before you start to think about if something seems off.

and then, you increase your samples up to about 10x the expected number of samples, and if then there is still no hit, then is when i would start to look to compare to others and to start questioning things.

(so that would be ~27 and ~88 samples, respectively)

 

there's also the B Rotation Chance to consider, but for the sake of example simplicity, i excluded that.

[(PSN)Onder6099]

Reminder: Systems were added to Rot B, Rot cycles every 8 squad rescued: 
Rot B: 6, 14 etc
Rot C: 8, 16 etc

 

 

[LousyLegend]

2 minutes ago, Cerikus said:

Well I guess you have hit the lowest point of varience then. This is the negative aspect of RNG.  Sometimes it screws you. :(
There is no special condition, only thing you need is patience. I wish you the best of luck. I belive it will drop soon for you :)

Ty 😀

 

[Cerikus]

Just now, LousyLegend said:

Yeah I have extracted exactly after the rotation c was completed every time.

Well I guess you have hit the lowest point of varience then. This is the negative aspect of RNG.  Sometimes it screws you. :(
There is no special condition, only thing you need is patience. I wish you the best of luck. I belive it will drop soon for you :)

[LousyLegend]

2 minutes ago, Cerikus said:

That is strange. The harrow systems are rare, but the dropchance is 11.28% on rotation C, so it seems impossible that you didn't get it already. 
Are you sure you are reaching rotation C everytime? 
Statistically speaking it should take you 7-8 runs to get it and around 50 runs if you are the unluckiest person alive.

Yeah I have extracted exactly after the rotation c was completed every time. Or maybe my luck is just too bad T^T

[(XBOX)Greenguy5000]

are you getting to rot c? (8 squads saved)

[Cerikus]

7 minutes ago, LousyLegend said:

So, I've been doing the defection missions since 4 months already and haven't had a single Harrow Systems drop in this time period. i'm not sure whether there is a specific condition I'm not fulfilling or something. Some advice would be appreciated.

That is strange. The harrow systems are rare, but the dropchance is 11.28% on rotation C, so it seems impossible that you didn't get it already. 
Are you sure you are reaching rotation C everytime? 
Statistically speaking it should take you 7-8 runs to get it and around 50 runs if you are the unluckiest person alive.