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How to calculate probabilty 2: here we go again


Cerikus
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I consider Railjack Retrofit a great update. There are minor things I posted about in the past week, but most of those are minor issues. But I am here again to talk about something that's borderline unaccaptable.

I do not know if DE don't know or don't care or if they do this on purpose. That's why I want to talk about probabilty again.

Bez-n-zvu.png

This, is NOT ok. Why?

Let's say it takes you only 15 minutes to do the Railjack part of the orphix, board the ship and reach rotation C. Can anyone guess how much time it would take approximately to get a full set of Arcane Energize, Grace or Barrier? (I consider having 95% chance to already have a piece dropped a successful acquiry)

514,5 HOURS OF NON-STOP PLAYING

To put in into perspective. it would be 206,5 hours of Eidolon Hunting. Still a lot, but better. 

How much was it for the Orphix venom event? 25 hours?

Who decided these dropchances???

Ridiculus.

 

P.S.
For calculations I am using formula: 1-(1-X)^Y = 0,95
X is dropchance - 0,0141
Y is number of runs you have to do to get one piece
It has to be equal or higher then 95%
Then you multiply it by 15 minutes (lenght of one try) and by 21 (full set of arcane).

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The Arcane drop chances are healthy. They are meant as an alternative to Eidolons while not competing with them. That's sort of the whole point there. If they were competitive to Eidolons, you would immediately devalue Eidolons outside of Focus, and undermine that entire boss system. I really like that the Arcanes are quite rare in Orphix and are there as a bonus but not as a place to overtake or come close to Eidolons.

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1 hour ago, Voltage said:

The Arcane drop chances are healthy. They are meant as an alternative to Eidolons while not competing with them. That's sort of the whole point there. If they were competitive to Eidolons, you would immediately devalue Eidolons outside of Focus, and undermine that entire boss system. I really like that the Arcanes are quite rare in Orphix and are there as a bonus but not as a place to overtake or come close to Eidolons.

I simply cannot agree that 500 hours of in-mission time is healthy.

If giving it more reasonable dropchance would compete with the eidolon hunts, maybe there is something wrong with the eidolon hunts themselves.

And we know there is. It's very problematic and flawed bossfight system. New players have troubles getting into it. It's timegated which brings a lot of toxicity and elitism. 

If legenary arcanes had the same dropchance in Orphix (5%), it would still be much more efficient to run Eidolons.
People who run Eidolons would stay there and players who are not able to join in on Eidolons would have other, less efficient option.

But I guess it's better to have Orphix as a game mode that's not worth anyones time and add it to the "nobody plays it" pile. 

It is already difficult to find squad... and it has only been a week.

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Actually it's worse than that.... There's no Guarantee you will actually get that Drop.... At all.... EVER !!!!

2 hours ago, Voltage said:

If they were competitive to Eidolons, you would immediately devalue Eidolons outside of Focus, and undermine that entire boss system.

They deserve to be undermined.... They are not good Bosses... leading Players away from them can only be a good thing...

11 minutes ago, Cerikus said:

 

If giving it more reasonable dropchance would compete with the eidolon hunts, maybe there is something wrong with the eidolon hunts themselves

Exactly what I was thinking.... 

Eidolon's are Terrible... And I don't think it's healthy to use Arcanes to bait people into doing something Terrible....

 

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I would like if there were other incentives to running the Orphix mission. Specifically if the sentient enemies dropped...something, anything. In the Orphix mission the Conculyst and Symbalyst kill/drop tables are empty.

If I'm going to run a mission like Orhpix, I should be able to get Shedu and Broken War parts. At least that's my feeling on the topic.

Edited by LillyRaccune
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1 hour ago, LillyRaccune said:

I would like if there were other incentives to running the Orphix mission.

I'm still amazed the missions don't drop the mandatory necramech mods you could only get during the event. I'm definitely not running Orphixes to farm Vidar Engine MkI.

Don't worry though. I'm sure there'll soon be a patch listening to all the threads asking to slow down orphix spawn rates so the average will go up to 1000+ hours instead.

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3 hours ago, Voltage said:

The Arcane drop chances are healthy. They are meant as an alternative to Eidolons while not competing with them. That's sort of the whole point there. If they were competitive to Eidolons, you would immediately devalue Eidolons outside of Focus, and undermine that entire boss system. I really like that the Arcanes are quite rare in Orphix and are there as a bonus but not as a place to overtake or come close to Eidolons.

imo this response would be valid if orphix content dropped important rewards other than arcanes, as per other responses in this thread have suggested as improvements. otherwise it ignores that orphix content has also been devalued in order to preserve the value of eidolon content, which would have to be rationalized by arguing that some content should be more valuable than others

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On 2021-03-28 at 7:19 PM, Voltage said:

The Arcane drop chances are healthy. They are meant as an alternative to Eidolons while not competing with them. That's sort of the whole point there. If they were competitive to Eidolons, you would immediately devalue Eidolons outside of Focus, and undermine that entire boss system. I really like that the Arcanes are quite rare in Orphix and are there as a bonus but not as a place to overtake or come close to Eidolons.

These Drop Chances are not healthy, for the same reasons that Eidolon Drop Chances are not healthy. They both need to be significantly looked at and made both faster and reliable. It doesn't have to be as fast as Orphix Venom or Scarlet Spear, that'd be too fast for permanent sources imo, but it would certainly be better than current chances.

Personally, I won't ever do either Orphix or Eidolons to get the Arcanes. I'll do them because I feel like it, because Nightwave asks for it, because Eidolons give me Operator progression, but never for the Arcanes.

If I knew that my work would be rewarded instead of me blindly rolling dice in bloated drop tables, again and again, I'd strongly consider both.

Edited by Petroklos
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12 minutes ago, Petroklos said:

These Drop Chances are not healthy, for the same reasons that Eidolon Drop Chances are not healthy. They both need to be significantly looked at and made both faster and reliable. It doesn't have to be as fast as Orphix Venom or Scarlet Spear, that'd be too fast for permanent sources imo, but it would certainly be better than current chances.

Personally, I won't ever do either Orphix or Eidolons to get the Arcanes. I'll do them because I feel like it, because Nightave asks for it, because Eidolons give me Operator progression, but never for the Arcanes.

If I knew that my work would be rewarded instead of me blindly rolling dice in bloated drop tables, again and again, I'd strongly consider both.

See, I actually don't think having these items be in their current state is that bad. They have immense power (especially Grace, Energize, Aegis, and Guardian), and the balancing aspect of them is that they are not something you get really quickly or for cheap (like Condition Overload, Blood Rush, or other typical mods). Making these Arcanes even more available is a problem for the health of gear progression.

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1 hour ago, Voltage said:

See, I actually don't think having these items be in their current state is that bad. They have immense power (especially Grace, Energize, Aegis, and Guardian), and the balancing aspect of them is that they are not something you get really quickly or for cheap (like Condition Overload, Blood Rush, or other typical mods). Making these Arcanes even more available is a problem for the health of gear progression.

That doesn't fix the problem of some Arcanes effectively breaking the game, it only delays and limits it, while also keeping a whole system pretty much out of reach for any Player with half a life and making it unbearably unfair and random for anyone trying to actually engage with it.

And Arcanes in general need a solid balance pass (again) as some are useless and others give you tons of power for doing little to nothing, oh hi Grace and Guardian, how are you two doing.

Condition Overload and Bloodrush, the two obvious problems with Melee's current insanely overtuned scaling, aren't problematic because they are common (which CO really isn't, even if it seems so when compared to Energize), they are problematic because they are overtuned and extremely easy to trigger and maintain.

Edited by Petroklos
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most of those arcanes primarily benefit warframes that have glaring weaknesses and otherwise do very little that isn't either overkill or substitutable for something else for similar effectiveness. they aren't so much gamechangers for the most effective strategy as they are things which open up new alternatives that are only slightly less effective, and that would make the game a lot more fun if they were more accessible

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4 hours ago, Cerikus said:

I simply cannot agree that 500 hours of in-mission time is healthy.

If giving it more reasonable dropchance would compete with the eidolon hunts, maybe there is something wrong with the eidolon hunts themselves.

And we know there is. It's very problematic and flawed bossfight system. New players have troubles getting into it. It's timegated which brings a lot of toxicity and elitism. 

If legenary arcanes had the same dropchance in Orphix (5%), it would still be much more efficient to run Eidolons.
People who run Eidolons would stay there and players who are not able to join in on Eidolons would have other, less efficient option.

But I guess it's better to have Orphix as a game mode that's not worth anyones time and add it to the "nobody plays it" pile. 

It is already difficult to find squad... and it has only been a week.

I see two flaws with your logic here:

1. You seem to imply that this is the only one way to get these arcanes.  But I got several full arcane sets (including Energize) from the Orphix Venom event, and did not spend nearly 500 hours on it.  There are also plenty of people selling these arcanes for plat, which is healthy for the game's economy.

2. You are confounding expected value with how long people will actually spend in this game mode and/or how long developers expect people to spend in this game mode.  If this were the only drop source, then you may have a point.  But clearly it is not and will not be the only source.

By ensuring the drop rates are roughly in-line with Eidolon hunts, the devs make sure that these arcanes would not be cheapened to a point where everyone and their brother has a full set.  This both maintains the market for these arcanes, and ensures the player base will appreciate future events that reward them.  And given how powerful these arcanes are, I would say this level of rarity is fully justified.

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14 minutes ago, MqToasty said:

I see two flaws with your logic here:

1. You seem to imply that this is the only one way to get these arcanes.  But I got several full arcane sets (including Energize) from the Orphix Venom event, and did not spend nearly 500 hours on it.  There are also plenty of people selling these arcanes for plat, which is healthy for the game's economy.

2. You are confounding expected value with how long people will actually spend in this game mode and/or how long developers expect people to spend in this game mode.  If this were the only drop source, then you may have a point.  But clearly it is not and will not be the only source.

By ensuring the drop rates are roughly in-line with Eidolon hunts, the devs make sure that these arcanes would not be cheapened to a point where everyone and their brother has a full set.  This both maintains the market for these arcanes, and ensures the player base will appreciate future events that reward them.  And given how powerful these arcanes are, I would say this level of rarity is fully justified.

i believe the premise of this thread is that the drop rates are not in-line with Eidolon hunts or the orphix venom event that the gamemode came from

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2 minutes ago, continue said:

i believe the premise of this thread is that the drop rates are not in-line with Eidolon hunts or the orphix venom event that the gamemode came from

Yet they are in-line with the Eidolon hunts (off only by a factor of 2 and significantly easier), and the Orphix Venom event was a special event that was supposed to be "special".  What are we going to complain about next, that affinity gains should be permanently doubled because we got a 2 week booster during the holidays?  The rarity should be maintained so when the next Scarlet Spear or Orphix Venom event rolls around, people can still feel adequately rewarded for getting these rewards.

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8 minutes ago, MqToasty said:

Yet they are in-line with the Eidolon hunts (off only by a factor of 2 and significantly easier), and the Orphix Venom event was a special event that was supposed to be "special".  What are we going to complain about next, that affinity gains should be permanently doubled because we got a 2 week booster during the holidays?  The rarity should be maintained so when the next Scarlet Spear or Orphix Venom event rolls around, people can still feel adequately rewarded for getting these rewards.

that's perfectly fine, you just weren't fully explaining your position the first time around 

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4 hours ago, Voltage said:

They have immense power (especially Grace, Energize, Aegis, and Guardian),

Don't forget Avenger ,😝 

Also Aegis is actually worse now.... Because They added Shield Gating you now literally can not be killed whenever Aegis Procs... To compensate for this DE lowered it's Proc Chance....  This thing used to Be Busted on Hildryn... But now it's unreliable for Everyone... Hildryn included.

I don't know how I feel about Grace.... 

Guardian is so so.... You don't need that much Armor... I would gladly take Half the Value in exchange for the Ability to Refresh the Arcane... It would make it more Consistentent.... 

4 hours ago, Voltage said:

and the balancing aspect of them is that they are not something you get really quickly or for cheap (like Condition Overload, Blood Rush, or other typical mods)

Considering the type of Interactions we have with other players when Doing Eidolon Bounties.... I have to disagree....

2 hours ago, MqToasty said:

 

1. You seem to imply that this is the only one way to get these arcanes.  But I got several full arcane sets (including Energize) from the Orphix Venom event, and did not spend nearly 500 hours on it.  There are also plenty of people selling these arcanes for plat, which is healthy for the game's economy

The Plat Alternative was a terrible Counter Argument before Scarlet Spear.... So I guess it depends on when we will see Orpheus Venom again.... Because we all know Orpheus loves Venom 😝 !!!

2 hours ago, MqToasty said:

 

2. You are confounding expected value with how long people will actually spend in this game mode and/or how long developers expect people to spend in this game mode.  If this were the only drop source, then you may have a point.  But clearly it is not and will not be the only source

Maybe.... But those Drop Rates tells me it won't change much....

2 hours ago, MqToasty said:

 

By ensuring the drop rates are roughly in-line with Eidolon hunts, the devs make sure that these arcanes would not be cheapened to a point where everyone and their brother has a full set

Why would that be a bad thing... Everyone should get some.... Some of them are Actually fun to play with....

2 hours ago, MqToasty said:

And given how powerful these arcanes are, I would say this level of rarity is fully justified

Blasphemy !!! 😱 !!!

2 hours ago, MqToasty said:

What are we going to complain about next, that affinity gains should be permanently doubled because we got a 2 week booster during the holidays?

Il get started on that Right Away 😤 !!!

2 hours ago, MqToasty said:

The rarity should be maintained so when the next Scarlet Spear or Orphix Venom event rolls around, people can still feel adequately rewarded for getting these rewards

I mean... Okay fair enough... But I still insist that the Activities for these Rewards need to be reworked to make them less frustrating and toxic.

 

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, MqToasty said:

1. You seem to imply that this is the only one way to get these arcanes.  But I got several full arcane sets (including Energize) from the Orphix Venom event, and did not spend nearly 500 hours on it.  There are also plenty of people selling these arcanes for plat, which is healthy for the game's economy.

I am not implying that at all. If I did, I would not explicitly mention Eidolons and Orphix Venom. 

All I am saying is that the droprates are mathematically unrealistic. There is no merit in comparing the droprates to a limited time event.

The fact that you have several full sets from something that is not currently live and that the arcanes are available on the market doesn't justify these atrocious droprates.

9 hours ago, MqToasty said:

2. You are confounding expected value with how long people will actually spend in this game mode and/or how long developers expect people to spend in this game mode.  If this were the only drop source, then you may have a point.  But clearly it is not and will not be the only source.

 The math is on my side in this case though.  The expected value IS how long people will actually spend in-game. Yes, there is some kind of uneven distribution, but it will always follow Gauss distribution. Yes. there theoretically will be a person who will do 21 runs of Orphix and get a full set, but there will also be a person who will play it for 500 h and get 0 Arcane Energize. The amount of "lucky" people is the same as the amount of "unlucky" people. 90% of players will still have to spend around 500 hours in Orphix, if they will want to farm up the full set there. This is how it works.

But.. You are actually right. With these droprates the actual playtime will be different from the expected value. People will spend exactly 0 hours in the gamemode and just do Eidolons or farm plat to buy the Arcanes.

For me that is a bad design, but anyone (including DE) can think otherwise, of course.

The question then is: Was it worth the devtime to code the gamemode into the game? Or was it a waste of time?

Edited by Cerikus
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54 minutes ago, Cerikus said:

The question then is: Was it worth the devtime to code the gamemode into the game? Or was it a waste of time?

You can ask that about the entire Empyrean gamemode that's been sucking dev time for 3+ years now with clearly mixed reception. I don't see where this is going. DE doubles down on gimmick gamemodes all the time and their management of time and resources is frequently poor.

The whole point of the drop chance is to be rare. This game needs to stop handing out its top tier Arsenal enhancements like candy and creating a massive power ceiling problem early on which leads to undermining and trivializing gear progression. The drop rates should be low and DE should leave them that way. Scarlet Spear was over-rewarding and so was Orphix Venom. It's bad for the game to allow players to expect this level of Arcane rewards.

Edited by Voltage
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Voltage said:

You can ask that about the entire Empyrean gamemode that's been sucking dev time for 3+ years now with clearly mixed reception. I don't see where this is going. DE doubles down on gimmick gamemodes all the time and their management of time and resources is frequently poor.

Yes you can and yes, you are right, DE do that. Should we just accept it then and stop talking about it? If they don't want Orphix to be a realistic source of Arcanes, they can put something else in it. Make it the best relic farm, or make it a good alternative to sentient cores/focus farm, so people can progress with operator, but can ignore Eidolons. I will never stop (as long as I play this game) talking about poor decisions that ultimately are a waste of devtime, if they don't get fixed. Which IS the case here.

1 hour ago, Voltage said:

The whole point of the drop chance is to be rare. This game needs to stop handing out its top tier Arsenal enhancements like candy and creating a massive power ceiling problem early on which leads to undermining and trivializing gear progression. The drop rates should be low and DE should leave them that way. Scarlet Spear was over-rewarding and so was Orphix Venom. It's bad for the game to allow players to expect this level of Arcane rewards.

Rare is fine. Impossible is not. I have never said that arcane energize should drop every hour. But every 25 hours of in-mission time is too much. I feel like you are trying to covince me that arcanes are suppose to be rare. But I share this opinion. All I am saying is that the numbers are wrong. 

You are 100% right about scarlet spear and orphix venom being over-rewarding. DE should have adjusted the prices for the events based on the usage of the arcanes. Stuff like Arcane warmth should have cost 10 credits a piece, while Energize should have been extremely expensive. But poor past decisions don't justify bad droptables in the present.

I will say it as explicit as possible:

I don't want dropchance to be high. I am not stupid. But 1.41% is mathematicaly a problem.
People usually think that doing 2 runs with 50% drop chance is the same as doing 20 runs with 5% dropchance, but that is a lie. When you reach values like 1,5% with 15-20 minutes needed to reach rotation C, you have a mathematical problem.

I am going to suggest a different drop-table. Tell me, if you find it problematic or not (and why):

 

Veil/Erato (Orphix)

Rotation A

150 Endo

Common (74%)

Arcane Resistance

Rare (2%)

Arcane Healing

Rare (2%)

Arcane Deflection

Rare (2%)

Arcane Victory

Rare (2%)

Arcane Strike

Rare (2%)

Arcane Awakening

Rare (2%)

Arcane Guardian

Rare (2%)

Arcane Phantasm

Rare (2%)

Arcane Eruption

Rare (2%)

Arcane Acceleration

Rare (2%)

Arcane Trickery

Rare (2%)

Arcane Velocity

Rare (2%)

Arcane Agility

Rare (2%)

Rotation B

300 Endo

Common (76%)

Arcane Aegis

Rare (2%)

Arcane Precision

Rare (2%)

Arcane Pulse

Rare (2%)

Arcane Ultimatum

Rare (2%)

Arcane Rage

Rare (2%)

Arcane Fury

Rare (2%)

Arcane Avenger

Rare (2%)

Arcane Arachne

Rare (2%)

Rotation C

400 Endo

Common (91%)

Arcane Grace

Rare (3%)

Arcane Energize

Rare (3%)

Arcane Barrier

Rare (3%)


 

 

Edited by Cerikus
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19 hours ago, Cerikus said:

P.S.
For calculations I am using formula: 1-(1-X)^Y = 0,95
X is dropchance - 0,0141
Y is number of runs you have to do to get one piece
It has to be equal or higher then 95%
Then you multiply it by 15 minutes (lenght of one try) and by 21 (full set of arcane).

You've made a critical error here: You're not calculating the 'average expected' value any more.

What you're calculating by 95% cumulative probability * time * quantity is consistent lowest-5th percentile luck across 21 isolated instances.

This isn't the 'average expectation' - as soon as you're simulating the same test reaching <50% Chance-Non-Drop (statistically unlucky) again, you're not accounting for the counterweight probability of a test with an above-average (statistically lucky) outcome.

 

You might know how to calculate compounding probabilities, but that doesn't mean you calculated the probability of the outcome you intended to.

The raw average time for a stack is actually quite simple. 1/chance * time * quantity. Approximately 372 hours, 20 minutes. Finding cumulative averages across multiple instances quickly becomes a problem you're better off solving with simulation rather than trying to find an accurate equation.

 

You also didn't state your equation for the comparative Eidolon farming time. So, let's say it's a pace of a fairly mediocre 3x3 with 5 minutes of breathing room for the same 15 minute run timer per drop table pull. 5% chances there gives us a comparison average stack time of 105 hours.

Edited by TheLexiConArtist
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vor 47 Minuten schrieb Cerikus:

 If they don't want Orphix to be a realistic source of Arcanes, they can put something else in it. Make it the best relic farm, or make it a good alternative to sentient cores/focus farm, so people can progress with operator, but can ignore Eidolons.

Orphix is already the best at something. It is the best Wreckage farm for specifc wreckages on the game. 

Sure, you may not need wreckages once you have a maxed Railjack, but this is a different issue.

 

Every time something new will become the best at X you will kill the old thing that was the best at this. Look at Xini for example. Nobody cares about Xini anymore since disruption on Lua is a thing. This is just an endless spiral with more and more Missions having the same loot and only the best one will be played.

 

The way DE approached OV is by making it the best at something (Wreckages) and then giving it a bonus (Arcanes). 

Edited by Andy.
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29 minutes ago, Andy. said:

 

Every time something new will become the best at X you will kill the old thing that was the best at this. Look at Xini for example. Nobody cares about Xini anymore since disruption on Lua is a thing. This is just an endless spiral with more and more Missions having the same loot and only the best one will be played

Since Xini wasn't actually fun to begin with.... Does it really matter ?

Mesa Prime killed Muralist Salad V Assassinate....

Exploiter and Thumpers Killed Mining and Fishing.

Arbitration Killed Rathuum Arena.... Well... Almost....

Khora killed Hydroid.... 

Nobody cares because those things Sucked.... That's not to say the replacements were good... But I'm hoping at some point one of these Migrations will land on something that's actually fun to play.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Cerikus said:

The math is on my side in this case though.  The expected value IS how long people will actually spend in-game. Yes, there is some kind of uneven distribution, but it will always follow Gauss distribution. Yes. there theoretically will be a person who will do 21 runs of Orphix and get a full set, but there will also be a person who will play it for 500 h and get 0 Arcane Energize. The amount of "lucky" people is the same as the amount of "unlucky" people. 90% of players will still have to spend around 500 hours in Orphix, if they will want to farm up the full set there. This is how it works.

But.. You are actually right. With these droprates the actual playtime will be different from the expected value. People will spend exactly 0 hours in the gamemode and just do Eidolons or farm plat to buy the Arcanes.

For me that is a bad design, but anyone (including DE) can think otherwise, of course.

The question then is: Was it worth the devtime to code the gamemode into the game? Or was it a waste of time?

Yes, I think you are seeing the point now.  The distribution of time spent farming arcanes will not be a gaussian distribution, but rather a pareto distribution.  Precisely because a few will get very lucky and the unlucky ones will all give up and wait for the next Scarlet Spear / Orphix Venom event.  Only very, very few of the unlucky ones will stick with it, creating the long tail in the distribution.  The whole point of this is to manage customer perceived value and to limit power creep.

First of all, let's be honest that these arcanes are quite OP and meta.  If the devs made them readily accessible to anyone at any time, then two problems will occur:

1. They are greatly cheapened and can no longer be offered as incentives to grind special events.  If everyone has them (and you can too for just 5 hours of play!), then these arcanes will quickly turn into Pressure Point mods -- no one will be excited about getting them anymore and everyone will whip out their pitchforks when they see it as the Tier 27 Nightwave reward.

2. Since they are basically meta, the devs will then be obligated to release EVEN MORE OP stuff by the next update.  If the entire player base can quickly reach and stay at meta status, when what is the point of playing anymore?  All of the design and development energy will have to be devoted to the power creep and releasing even more OP'd stuff to keep the player base hooked.  Are you sure you want this?  I, for one, would rather the devs spend their time and energy on continuing the main story and expanding the lore.

For your final question, this game mode is definitely not wasted because it reinforces the perception of rarity and thus perceived value.  Since it was already coded for the Operation, moving it to Railjack would not have been that much extra work.  The barrier of entry is also much lower than hunting Tridolons, so of course it should be at a lower drop rate -- why else would anyone do Tridolons?

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9 minutes ago, Lutesque said:

To have fun ? 🤔

 

Then may I suggest playing Street Fighter II?  There is nothing to collect, nothing to accumulate, no luck involved.  The only barrier between you and winning or losing is your knowledge of what you should do in a given moment, and whether you have the hand-eye coordination to pull it off.  Your kind of fun, right?  And while you're at it, why don't you convince OP to just "have fun" and not worry about arcanes anymore?

I do not know if you truly do not understand the gamer motivation profile types Warframe caters to, or if you are merely a troll.  But to think any significant number of Warframe players would continue playing for "fun" when there is no more achievement to be had is...  Rather ignorant, to say the least.

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