How to calculate probabilty 2: here we go again

[Buff00n]

21 hours ago, Cerikus said:

514,5 HOURS OF NON-STOP PLAYING

For calculations I am using formula: 1-(1-X)^Y = 0,95
X is dropchance - 0,0141
Y is number of runs you have to do to get one piece
It has to be equal or higher then 95%
Then you multiply it by 15 minutes (lenght of one try) and by 21 (full set of arcane).

I tried to follow your math and came up with something different.

1-(1-0.0141)^y = 0.95
y = ln(1 - 0.95) / ln(1 - 0.0141)
y = 210.96

Which is correct, the 95th percentile for a single 1.41% drop is about 211.

But multiply that by 21 arcanes x 15 minutes per run and you get 1107 hours, not 514.  

 

That said, 514 is the correct answer for the 95th percentile for getting 21 of a 1.41% drop.  I'm curious for some more details about how you actually got there.  You can multiply the average by 21 and get a meaningful result, but that doesn't work with the 95% percentile.

 

The only way I know how to get that number is through simulation:

Or in hours, with the 15 minute assumption:

My tool doesn't show the 95th percentile by default, but I can query the data set and get something around 514. (514.775 in this case)

 

Anyway, ever since Scarlet Spear and the arcane rework, the big picture is that it will take you so long to put together a complete set of "the good ones" naturally that you're bound to hit a Scarlet Spear re-run before you're done.

[(XBOX)Apoll0 666]

14 minutes ago, Buff00n said:

I tried to follow your math and came up with something different.

1-(1-0.0141)^y = 0.95
y = ln(1 - 0.95) / ln(1 - 0.0141)
y = 210.96

Which is correct, the 95th percentile for a single 1.41% drop is about 211.

But multiply that by 21 arcanes x 15 minutes per run and you get 1107 hours, not 514.  

 

That said, 514 is the correct answer for the 95th percentile for getting 21 of a 1.41% drop.  I'm curious for some more details about how you actually got there.  You can multiply the average by 21 and get a meaningful result, but that doesn't work with the 95% percentile.

 

The only way I know how to get that number is through simulation:

Or in hours, with the 15 minute assumption:

My tool doesn't show the 95th percentile by default, but I can query the data set and get something around 514. (514.775 in this case)

 

Anyway, ever since Scarlet Spear and the arcane rework, the big picture is that it will take you so long to put together a complete set of "the good ones" naturally that you're bound to hit a Scarlet Spear re-run before you're done.

too much math for today, I just came on the forums to see some random threads 0~0

 

edit: ironically im in a math class rn

[DrivaMain]

22 hours ago, Cerikus said:

This, is NOT ok. Why?

Let's say it takes you only 15 minutes to do the Railjack part of the orphix, board the ship and reach rotation C. Can anyone guess how much time it would take approximately to get a full set of Arcane Energize, Grace or Barrier? (I consider having 95% chance to already have a piece dropped a successful acquiry)

514,5 HOURS OF NON-STOP PLAYING

To put in into perspective. it would be 206,5 hours of Eidolon Hunting. Still a lot, but better. 

How much was it for the Orphix venom event? 25 hours?

Who decided these dropchances???

Ridiculus.

Instead of farming it non stop why don’t you just trade the excess arcanes you get from 510,4 hours? Arcanes are very high value items. There is no way DE will let you hoard Arcanes willy nilly. Remember, you don’t need these for the main progression of the game. If it were I would be totally 100% agree with you.

You also forgot that Eidolons are time gated while Orphix are not. So orphix gets the benefit of no time pressure and more “chill”.

 

[continue]

1 hour ago, MqToasty said:

The whole point of this is to manage customer perceived value and to limit power creep.

First of all, let's be honest that these arcanes are quite OP and meta. 

personally, i think the perceived gameplay value of these arcanes is being inflated by their perceived rarity value. not that this invalidates your argument about managing expectations; if anything, it actually demonstrates how compelling it is. 

while i agree that the barrier for entry on eidolons is higher, imo this is partly due to social factors as matchmaking for these hunts is much more rigorous and focused on maximizing efficiency within a 50-minute window. taken strictly from a solo player perspective, i think it takes less time and resources to begin hunting eidolons than it does orphix. though this may be biased due to my experience with poor initial onboarding for railjack/necramechs. 

[MqToasty]

10 minutes ago, continue said:

personally, i think the perceived gameplay value of these arcanes is being inflated by their perceived rarity value. not that this invalidates your argument about managing expectations; if anything, it actually demonstrates how compelling it is. 

while i agree that the barrier for entry on eidolons is higher, imo this is partly due to social factors as matchmaking for these hunts is much more rigorous and focused on maximizing efficiency within a 50-minute window. taken strictly from a solo player perspective, i think it takes less time and resources to begin hunting eidolons than it does orphix. though this may be biased due to my experience with poor initial onboarding for railjack/necramechs. 

I would say Arcane Energize is a game changer because you really do not have to worry about energy anymore.  The others, not so much.

Probably because I prefer to play solo, I had the opposite experience.  While grinding for a Necramech was a massive time sink (especially since I did it before they increased the Necrathene drop rate), mechanically I found Operation Orphix Venom to be much simpler than Eidolon Hunting.  It felt straight forward to me because I could just stay in 1 mode, shoot my OP'd gun at static targets, and just use 2 abilities to stay alive and deal damage.  For Eidolons, I had to juggle at least 2 modes, try and keep a bunch of lures alive and in range, hit several constantly moving spots, etc.  In fact, I have yet to tackle Garry and Harry because capturing Terry felt like too much work.  But that's just me...

[Lutesque]

1 hour ago, MqToasty said:

Then may I suggest playing Street Fighter II?  There is nothing to collect, nothing to accumulate, no luck involved. 

Too Difficult....  I can't Uppercut to save my life in that game....

1 hour ago, MqToasty said:

The only barrier between you and winning or losing is your knowledge of what you should do in a given moment, and whether you have the hand-eye coordination to pull it off.

Sadly I can't... 😞...

 

 

 

1 hour ago, MqToasty said:

Your kind of fun, right? 

Actually yes it is... 😁... Just not that Series Specifically....

2 hours ago, MqToasty said:

And while you're at it, why don't you convince OP to just "have fun" and not worry about arcanes anymore?

Because Arcanes are fun too... My Favourite being Arcane Agility and whichever one the Primary Fire Rate one is.... Or maybe that one Doesn't Exist 😱 !!!

2 hours ago, MqToasty said:

 

I do not know if you truly do not understand the gamer motivation profile types Warframe caters to, or if you are merely a troll.  But to think any significant number of Warframe players would continue playing for "fun" when there is no more achievement to be had is...  Rather ignorant, to say the least.

I do it... Infact it's what I looked forward to most of all.... I also had a friend who would spend a lot of time in the Derelict just for Funsies.... Another who Perfected their Shawzin Skills... Other than them... The rest were busy grinding or quit because the Grind was over...

 

[continue]

Just now, MqToasty said:

I would say Arcane Energize is a game changer because you really do not have to worry about energy anymore.  The others, not so much.

Probably because I prefer to play solo, I had the opposite experience.  While grinding for a Necramech was a massive time sink (especially since I did it before they increased the Necrathene drop rate), mechanically I found Operation Orphix Venom to be much simpler than Eidolon Hunting.  It felt straight forward to me because I could just stay in 1 mode, shoot my OP'd gun at static targets, and just use 2 abilities to stay alive and deal damage.  For Eidolons, I had to juggle at least 2 modes, try and keep a bunch of lures alive and in range, hit several constantly moving spots, etc.  In fact, I have yet to tackle Garry and Harry because capturing Terry felt like too much work.  But that's just me...

i do still think energize has alternatives, but for the most part i agree with you; gameplay wise, eidolon does have more mechanics, and i was also mostly just referring to the initial necramech stuff as well. 

[Lutesque]

2 minutes ago, MqToasty said:

I would say Arcane Energize is a game changer because you really do not have to worry about energy anymore.  The others, not so much

Booben Does.... Until they fix Tether Coil Booben needs to manage his Bastilles more carefully.... 

1 hour ago, DrivaMain said:

Instead of farming it non stop why don’t you just trade the excess arcanes you get from 510,4 hours?

Have you actually tried to trade Arcane Warmth or Arcane Tempo ? It took so long I just gave them to my friends for the extra Revives...

 

1 hour ago, continue said:

personally, i think the perceived gameplay value of these arcanes is being inflated by their perceived rarity value. not that this invalidates your argument about managing expectations; if anything, it actually demonstrates how compelling it is. 

This is somewhat true.... Very few of them actually change game mechanics... They mostly tweak numbers...

6 minutes ago, continue said:

i do still think energize has alternatives, 

Ofcourse it does.... However the problem with all Sources of Energy is they come at the cost of Something else... That includes Arcane Energize itself...

The least intrusive would be the Pizzas but that's going to depend on what your Resource Acquisition is like...

 

[continue]

1 hour ago, Lutesque said:

The least intrusive would be the Pizzas but that's going to depend on what your Resource Acquisition is like...

that's definitely true. since i don't play that often i get a lot of mileage out of titan extractors

[Kaotis]

En 28/3/2021 a las 17:17, Cerikus dijo:

I consider Railjack Retrofit a great update. There are minor things I posted about in the past week, but most of those are minor issues. But I am here again to talk about something that's borderline unaccaptable.

I do not know if DE don't know or don't care or if they do this on purpose. That's why I want to talk about probabilty again.

This, is NOT ok. Why?

Let's say it takes you only 15 minutes to do the Railjack part of the orphix, board the ship and reach rotation C. Can anyone guess how much time it would take approximately to get a full set of Arcane Energize, Grace or Barrier? (I consider having 95% chance to already have a piece dropped a successful acquiry)

514,5 HOURS OF NON-STOP PLAYING

To put in into perspective. it would be 206,5 hours of Eidolon Hunting. Still a lot, but better. 

How much was it for the Orphix venom event? 25 hours?

Who decided these dropchances???

Ridiculus.

 

P.S.
For calculations I am using formula: 1-(1-X)^Y = 0,95
X is dropchance - 0,0141
Y is number of runs you have to do to get one piece
It has to be equal or higher then 95%
Then you multiply it by 15 minutes (lenght of one try) and by 21 (full set of arcane).

I completly share the sentiment here 100%

Also ... you are saying 15 mins ... it's proly more..........

En 28/3/2021 a las 18:19, Voltage dijo:

The Arcane drop chances are healthy. They are meant as an alternative to Eidolons while not competing with them. That's sort of the whole point there. If they were competitive to Eidolons, you would immediately devalue Eidolons outside of Focus, and undermine that entire boss system. I really like that the Arcanes are quite rare in Orphix and are there as a bonus but not as a place to overtake or come close to Eidolons.

I'll start by saying that i belive you are a troll but ok lets go over what you are saying :

1. You consider drop rates of <2% healthy when even the most looty of loot box filed game gives to the most rare of the rate items 5-10%... maybe healty for an insame asylum...

2. Eidolons ARE NOT MEANT AS THE BE ALL END ALL OF ARCANES they were a stop gap until RAIDS came back.... <---- That was the original plan at least, duno if that idea will stay on the year 2030 but stil

3. Eidolons was originaly meant only for focus related stuff ...WHY IN THE HOLLYEST OF HOLLY ****** DO YOU THINK WE CAN DESTROY THE SHEILDS ONLY WITH OPERATORS???????

4. White knighting for DE like for your fav twitch streamer won't get you noticed , just saying...

En 28/3/2021 a las 22:02, continue dijo:

imo this response would be valid if orphix content dropped important rewards other than arcanes, as per other responses in this thread have suggested as improvements. otherwise it ignores that orphix content has also been devalued in order to preserve the value of eidolon content, which would have to be rationalized by arguing that some content should be more valuable than others

Only way that would be correct it's if that post wasn't made by a troll.

En 28/3/2021 a las 23:42, Voltage dijo:

See, I actually don't think having these items be in their current state is that bad. They have immense power (especially Grace, Energize, Aegis, and Guardian), and the balancing aspect of them is that they are not something you get really quickly or for cheap (like Condition Overload, Blood Rush, or other typical mods). Making these Arcanes even more available is a problem for the health of gear progression.

1. So their existance is aceepted by you ... glad to hear i guess.

2. Sorry you whot m8 ? Balance what exactly? in a game where you literally can go imortal what exactly will grace do for you ? In a game that you already can hit a numpad nr or set a nr row to drop energy pizza and top off your energy in les than 1 sec <--- Same for health,shield and ammo  actully...

2.1 Either you paid 1k plat for a full set and you are salty or you don't know the alternatives of this game.

3. Aha so hipotesis of 2.1 is correct in this regard... you can get a full set as soon as you can do the first trade on a new account.... <--- Granted i don't remember if they are minimum mr so in that case you would be limited by that, not by skill or anything similar... 

4. have you tried WTB [insert item here] in trade chat? also...................... drop rate on the mods(1,67% vs 1.41% ) listed is higher.... so you invalidate your opinion basicaly. <--- This is a cheap shot ... but i'm taking it yes, sue me

5. WTF health of gear progresion ? what the actual frick dude , you got baked and came to the forums?  there is no such thing as "gear progression" there is a mr rank progresion that gates what items you can use other than that... you pick it up , you build it and you use it <--- MR 30s could be runing arround withaut having MK1 braton ranked up etc...

hace 12 horas, Voltage dijo:

You can ask that about the entire Empyrean gamemode that's been sucking dev time for 3+ years now with clearly mixed reception. I don't see where this is going. DE doubles down on gimmick gamemodes all the time and their management of time and resources is frequently poor.

The whole point of the drop chance is to be rare. This game needs to stop handing out its top tier Arsenal enhancements like candy and creating a massive power ceiling problem early on which leads to undermining and trivializing gear progression. The drop rates should be low and DE should leave them that way. Scarlet Spear was over-rewarding and so was Orphix Venom. It's bad for the game to allow players to expect this level of Arcane rewards.

So you hate RJ in general coz you didn't get the magic drops for the Sigma runs .... and because of that you don't wnat hight drop rates. Nice elitism here, yes " i can't do it then no 1 should do it!" 

Or is it because they ruin the monopoly on arcane market ? hmmmmmm

1. Giving stuf to player that put in the time to : build mech , have operator geared up , have RJ geared up  have the skill and mods to reach rotation C  is bad? OH OH you prefer to have the time investment on : Have Operator semi ready and with 1 focus tree until extra damage with 1 of [Chroma, Volt , Harrow ... insert the rest of the limited pool of wfs used in Eidolon hunt] geared up and with a sniper ready and waiting ?

YEeeeee gear progression up and down the scale .... 1 needs you to interact with several "gimmick gamemodes" as you say , the other is a half assed progresion trought the quests + some normal game time investment ... i see where you get your plat from ;)

You can argue : " BUT BUT mech can be used in Eidolon ..." and that would be valid only if you could use warframes to kill the gloving boss statue thing. <--- Just in case you didn't know... you can't use Warframe in that mode coz of the disruption space magic thing...

[(XBOX)Tucker D Dawg]

IMHO anyone who would consider farming full arcane sets from Eidolons or RJ or anything with roughly similar drops needs their head examined.

maxed energize on console is ~800 p - or about 10 warframe sets of average value - farm that prime junk, sell it, buy energize from some sap who actually enjoys the game modes.

- run a few missions, maybe you get lucky, maybe you enjoy it in which case run it again and again, buy the rest.  Don't pad DE usage stats while banging your head into something you don't enjoy.

 

[Kaotis]

hace 15 minutos, (XBOX)Tucker D Dawg dijo:

IMHO anyone who would consider farming full arcane sets from Eidolons or RJ or anything with roughly similar drops needs their head examined.

maxed energize on console is ~800 p - or about 10 warframe sets of average value - farm that prime junk, sell it, buy energize from some sap who actually enjoys the game modes.

- run a few missions, maybe you get lucky, maybe you enjoy it in which case run it again and again, buy the rest.  Don't pad DE usage stats while banging your head into something you don't enjoy.

 

The sad part is that energize is not even realy worth it coz of the energy pizzas but because content creators use them every one wants them... and the other grace+guardian are a  "hard mode? nah dude i prefer casual dif" that basicaly invalidates most if not all incoming damage <,< 

I'll be honest, i trown in grace + guardian if it's not some particular wf like messa or for a particular specific mission(orb fights).

Sure wish they added some new arcanes ...

[blupache]

My issue with these sort of drop chances on the arcane is that they're starting to get out of realistic solo-self-found levels.

A hundred hours, aka. more than two working weeks, would be a serious grind... but not implausible.

By the time you're up to more than 10 working weeks (i.e. 8 hours times 5 days) then you're no longer playing a collection game - you're playing a trading game.

And I do not like having to buy my upgrades off the market.

It's bad enough with vaulted warframes - when it gets down to mod-type items too then it's not a game, it's a trading simulator.

[(XBOX)Tucker D Dawg]

1 hour ago, kaotis said:

The sad part is that energize is not even realy worth it coz of the energy pizzas but because content creators use them every one wants them... and the other grace+guardian are a  "hard mode? nah dude i prefer casual dif" that basicaly invalidates most if not all incoming damage <,< 

I'll be honest, i trown in grace + guardian if it's not some particular wf like messa or for a particular specific mission(orb fights).

Sure wish they added some new arcanes ...

Well I like energize because I don't like zenurik or energy pizzas - don't even have to pay attn to energy most of the time.

as for new arcanes - they added those oh-so-awesomesauce Theorem/Residual's lol

[Kaotis]

hace 1 hora, (XBOX)Tucker D Dawg dijo:

they added those oh-so-awesomesauce Theorem/Residual's lol

Oh yes the ones that make me OwO face when i get them as a reward ... so good so worth the time so wholesome n,n

[DrivaMain]

7 hours ago, Lutesque said:

Have you actually tried to trade Arcane Warmth or Arcane Tempo ? It took so long I just gave them to my friends for the extra Revives...

Easy. I’ll just look for people who wants to buy them in the internet. It may be cheap, but hey, better than nothing right?

[Lutesque]

5 hours ago, kaotis said:

Eidolons ARE NOT MEANT AS THE BE ALL END ALL OF ARCANES they were a stop gap until RAIDS came back.... <---- That was the original plan at least, duno if that idea will stay on the year 2030 but stil

3. Eidolons was originaly meant only for focus related stuff ...WHY IN THE HOLLYEST OF HOLLY ****** DO YOU THINK WE CAN DESTROY THE SHEILDS ONLY WITH OPERATORS???????

Now now.... No need to raise your Voice.... 

5 hours ago, (XBOX)Tucker D Dawg said:

maxed energize on console is ~800 p - or about 10 warframe sets of average value - farm that prime junk, sell it, buy energize from some sap who actually enjoys the game modes.

I believe I sold an Unranked Energize for that price before Scarlet Spear.......

I was so Desperate back then....

3 hours ago, blupache said:

 

And I do not like having to buy my upgrades off the market.

Amen, Brother/Sister !!!

3 hours ago, (XBOX)Tucker D Dawg said:

Well I like energize because I don't like zenurik or energy pizzas - don't even have to pay attn to energy most of the time.

Convenience is a pretty important Criteria and the main reason why I also wanted those Arcanes.... 

1 hour ago, DrivaMain said:

Easy. I’ll just look for people who wants to buy them in the internet. It may be cheap, but hey, better than nothing right?

Honestly I'd rather Take Nothing.... At some point you gotta put your Foot Down.... Who knows..... Maybe one day the Helminth we'll have an Arcane Conversion feature....

[continue]

17 minutes ago, Lutesque said:

Convenience is a pretty important Criteria and the main reason why I also wanted those Arcanes.... 

this is actually a good point. quality of life is often undervalued in favor of dps when people talk about the meta (thinking of monster hunter world), but when you're farming the same content repeatedly instead of just trying to set a speedrun record, consistency is just as valuable as dps to your overall efficiency

[Lutesque]

1 minute ago, continue said:

this is actually a good point. quality of life is often undervalued in favor of dps when people talk about the meta (thinking of monster hunter world), but when you're farming the same content repeatedly instead of just trying to set a speedrun record, consistency is just as valuable as dps to your overall efficiency

That's the most important part of my Akvasto Prime Riven.... It Crits Consistently now.... 

Now if I Could just have that for my Astilla and Corinth then I'll be sorted 😁 !!!

[Famecans]

On 2021-03-28 at 1:19 PM, Voltage said:

The Arcane drop chances are healthy. They are meant as an alternative to Eidolons while not competing with them. That's sort of the whole point there. If they were competitive to Eidolons, you would immediately devalue Eidolons outside of Focus, and undermine that entire boss system. I really like that the Arcanes are quite rare in Orphix and are there as a bonus but not as a place to overtake or come close to Eidolons.

ok i think your answer is funny. 🤓

so what's easier? upgrade a trinity + subsumed ember firebal +rubico or a necramech + railjack? where can i quickly get xp with a necramech?

[(XBOX)Rez090]

15 hours ago, Lutesque said:

Too Difficult....  I can't Uppercut to save my life in that game....

Sadly I can't... 😞...

 

I recommend old school Mortal Kombat, much more fun than Street Fighter.

[Kaotis]

hace 6 horas, Lutesque dijo:

Now now.... No need to raise your Voice.... 

Sowy Q,q the bad troll baited me

[DrivaMain]

16 hours ago, kaotis said:

I'll start by saying that i belive you are a troll but ok lets go over what you are saying :

He is not a troll. Just a poster merely disagreeing that Orphix should not be better at Eidolons in terms of reward efficiency. Come on let's be real here. There is no way DE is giving away high value market items like candy 24/7. I can say this topic will probably get ignored by DE. The goal of Orphix is to farm Arcanes without having to suffer through The Eidolon time gate while keeping Eidolons relevant with the better drop chance gimmick.

If you really hate farming Arcanes from this 2 game modes you can always wait for a Scarlet Spear re-run or trade your way to get them or slowly acquire them through Nightwave. Granted the third option may take years to complete it.

[(XBOX)TehChubbyDugan]

On 2021-03-28 at 12:19 PM, Voltage said:

The Arcane drop chances are healthy.

And this is why I can't stand this community.  "I think it's totally fine that it takes hundreds of hours to farm a thing."  Farming hundreds of hours, Orphix, Eidolon, whatever, for a single thing is unhealthy in every sense of the word.

I still remember being new and coming to the forums to ask why the base energy economy is so trash and everyone was like "lol here's some spoilers about operators and focus schools, also just get an arcane energize."

As if Trials, Eidolons or now this complete joke with the Orphix drop rates facilitate just casually going to get an Arcane Energize to mitigate the garbage tier energy economy in this game.  They're glorified mods.  One of which is practically mandatory on energy heavy frames unless you like burning resources and standing in one spot.  They should not take hundreds of hours of grind to get.  That's insanity, not wholesome, healthy gameplay.

The fact that the devs actively encourage an in-game economy where people regularly move $50US worth of game currency for a single in-game item is predatory and unethical.  

[Aldain]

Everybody is complaining about arcanes.

Meanwhile I still don't have the Gyromags/Atmos I need to rank up Vox Solaris despite 300+ runs.