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When did you realize the relic system is fraudulent and what do you suggest it should be replaced with ?


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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, Ailia_Grimm said:

Don't even need to read that wall of text

 

The game doesn't add the chances together for one big drop, the odds are separated

tl;dr short recap of probablity math in 7th grade.

 

Much shorter thought excercise:

You have a chance to win something when you flip a coin and it lands on heads.

 

The person hosting this "contest" gives you the option to flip the coin 1 times or 100 times.

There's no bad outcome if you choose the 100 times option and fail the coin flip.

The prize you win is the exact same on both options.

You only have to land on heads once.

You do not have to keep flipping the coin.

 

Do you think you have a better chance to win with 1 attempt or 100 attempts?

 

Obviously the 100 attempt option is the much safer option to win, still not 100% though.

 

Edit:

Ignore the contents of the spoiler, if the text above the edit is already too much to read, in your opinion

Found a better calculator, time to continue math class for just a tiny bit longer.

Spoiler

 

Assuming each coin side has exactly a 50% to show up (Let's ignore landing on the side for now. There's also no trickery going on with the coin)

The "1 times" option has a 50% of failure!

0.5 ^1

(Pretty pointless to calculate, but the best option for the formula I provided in my other post.)

That's also a 50% chance of success, decent, but the other option is still better.

 

Now for the "100 times" option.

0.5 ^100 = 0.0000000000000000000000000000007888609052210118054117285652827862296732064351090230047702789306640625

So a 0.00000000000000000000000000007888609052210118054117285652827862296732064351090230047702789306640625 chance to fail.

That means you have a 99.99999999999999999999999999992111390947789881945882714347172137703267935648909769952297210693359375

to succeed!

 

 

Edited by 16Bitman
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14 minutes ago, 16Bitman said:

That is actually how math works.

A radiant relic has a 10% chance to drop the Rare/Gold part it displays.

When you repeat the same action with the exact same chance of outcomes multiple times, the chance of the desire outcome occuring ONCE does increase with every attempt.

You can easily calculate the chance like this:

1. Calculate the chance of failure.

The chance of failure on a single attempt is 90%, for this formula 90% = 0.9

Just multiply the chances of failure with each other, in a single 4x radiant relic run it would look like this:

0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 = 0,6561

or

0.9 ^ 4 = 0,6561

Now just multiply the number you got with 100 to get the % chance again.

That's a 65,61% chance to fail

 

2. Deduct your results from 1 to get the chance of success.

1 - 0,6561 = 0,3439

If you want to avoid retyping the number on your calculate you can do this

0,6561 * -1 = -0,6561 + 1 = 0,3439

So a 34,39% chance to succeed!

 

Now what's important you remember and where the misconception of "multiple attempts having better chances is wrong" comes from, you will NEVER hit 100% this way, you can hit 99,999999% eventually, but if you're just too unlucky, you will never get what you want.

 

 

Now just for fun let's calculate the chance of doing 7 x4 radiant runs and getting 0 rare parts.

0,6561 * 0,6561 * 0,6561 * 0,6561 * 0,6561 * 0,6561 * 0,6561 = 0.0523347633

or

0,6561 ^7 = 0.0523347633

So a 5.23347633% chance to fail!

 

Yes, that's is quite low, but many drops, which many of us have already obtained, have an even lower chance, it's frustrating, but still far from >nearly< impossible.

Sounds about right. Thanks for going through the math to validate the point.

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Just now, White_Matter said:

Sounds about right. Thanks for going through the math to validate the point.

No problem, but don't forget the part that tells you that your chance of failure was 5%, which is still a very realistic outcome.

Ever got a rare part from an intact relic? That's just 2%!

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, 16Bitman said:

No problem, but don't forget the part that tells you that your chance of failure was 5%, which is still a very realistic outcome.

I'm aware of the statistical possibility.

Doesn't change the fact that it is too low.

Quote

Ever got a rare part from an intact relic? That's just 2%!

I'm pretty sure I must have but then I've done thosands of intact runs. I wasn't counting. 

 

I don't recall in recent memory but have they ever tempred with the drop chances of relic loot tables at any point ? 

 

Edited by White_Matter
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I feel for you, OP, but this is how every part of the game has been since inception, right?  At 5%, 1 in 20 players will have your exact experience.  Compared to the other player who ran Rolypoly for 20+ times and still not get a Wisp Blueprint (~0.3% chance), your luck is bad, but not egregiously bad.  Unfortunately, this is exactly how RNG works, and well, RNGesus giveth, RNGesus taketh away...

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vor 2 Stunden schrieb White_Matter:

In my case right after it was implemented. 

But recently, after getting 3 common and 1 *uncommon drops on my 7th radiant AXI G6 run for the Gara BP, I realized the relic system is absolute garbage once again. Through out those 7 runs, all 4 people had radiant relics and didn't even get a rare drop once and it was mostly common rewards eventhough statistically it shouldn't be the case.

 

Less dilluted loot tables, or a token system is needed urgently.

edit : *meant to say uncommon not rare

Do you guys not feel shame any more? Would you spew random ideas without putting any thought into it based on a single bad experience in public as well when people can see your face and might know your name?

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vor 9 Minuten schrieb White_Matter:

I'm aware of the statistical possibility.

Doesn't change the fact that it is too low.

I'm pretty sure I must have but then I've done thosands of intact runs. I wasn't counting. 

 

I don't recall in recent memory but have they ever tempred with the drop chances of relic loot tables at any point ? 

 

Ok let us bite:

The chance to get the piece is 1 in 3 in a radshare.

So how much probability would you think should the rarest piece of a Warframe have, which took about 3 months of development time and how fast would you think should we acquire it when farming is super easy and fast and you can buy the piece on the market as well?

Don't you think putting an hour or two into this is reasonable? Yeah in your case, you might have gotten unlucky, but what about all those times when the rare piece dropped right away? Did you go into the forums and tell everyone to nerf the drop rates as well?

I think you should think about your expectations, think about how easy it is to get the Gara Prime FOR FREE and stop starting pitchfork marches against DE, ok?

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57 minutes ago, 16Bitman said:

tl;dr short recap of probablity math in 7th grade.

 

Much shorter thought excercise:

You have a chance to win something when you flip a coin and it lands on heads.

 

The person hosting this "contest" gives you the option to flip the coin 1 times or 100 times.

There's no bad outcome if you choose the 100 times option and fail the coin flip.

The prize you win is the exact same on both options.

You only have to land on heads once.

You do not have to keep flipping the coin.

 

Do you think you have a better chance to win with 1 attempt or 100 attempts?

 

Obviously the 100 attempt option is the much safer option to win, still not 100% though.

Yeah cool, but my comment wasn't about that

 

I know you have more chances since you have more relics. I know I'm dumb, but not that much

I just said that the chances for relics weren't additive to each other, two relics with 50% chance doesn't make it 100%, it's still two separate instances of 50%

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Posted (edited)

Well I TOTALLY agree that something NEEDS to be adressed with this. if you "play the odds" after so many runs you "should" be able to aquire a set item BUT when you run the same relic 50+ times & still not come up with what is NEEDED that is complete BS. 

the rant said I completely understand that if there wasnt the "grind" of the game what good is it BUT that is WAY to much

All that said its NOT gara prime its NEZHA Prime Neuroptics to rank up with steel meridian

Edited by Bengalbird
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3 minutes ago, Ailia_Grimm said:

Yeah cool, but my comment wasn't about that

 

I know you have more chances since you have more relics. I know I'm dumb, but not that much

I just said that the chances for relics weren't additive to each other, two relics with 50% chance doesn't make it 100%, it's still two separate instances of 50%

Your comment stated two different things.

3 hours ago, Ailia_Grimm said:

That's not how math works, each chances are individual, they are not additive

"That's not how math works"

This is false.

My entire post was about explaining why math works this way.

 

"each chances are individual, they are not additive"

This is true

I have addressed this in my post too, you can NEVER hit a 100% chance with anything in this game, unless it already has a 100% chance. Chance calculation is multiplicative.

There is no 100% only ">>nearly<< guaranteed"

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1 minute ago, 16Bitman said:

Your comment stated two different things.

"That's not how math works"

This is false.

My entire post was about explaining why math works this way.

 

"each chances are individual, they are not additive"

This is true

I have addressed this in my post too, you can NEVER hit a 100% chance with anything in this game, unless it already has a 100% chance. Chance calculation is multiplicative.

There is no 100% only ">>nearly<< guaranteed"

100% was an example, don't take it so seriously

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dunkelheit said:

Do you guys not feel shame any more? Would you spew random ideas without putting any thought into it based on a single bad experience in public as well when people can see your face and might know your name?

Now that I read this, I felt some shame. For you.

  

57 minutes ago, Dunkelheit said:

Ok let us bite:

The chance to get the piece is 1 in 3 in a radshare.

So how much probability would you think should the rarest piece of a Warframe have, which took about 3 months of development time and how fast would you think should we acquire it when farming is super easy and fast and you can buy the piece on the market as well?

Don't you think putting an hour or two into this is reasonable? Yeah in your case, you might have gotten unlucky, but what about all those times when the rare piece dropped right away? Did you go into the forums and tell everyone to nerf the drop rates as well?

I think you should think about your expectations, think about how easy it is to get the Gara Prime FOR FREE and stop starting pitchfork marches against DE, ok?

The BP is just one of 4 pieces of loot you need for the frame. Which all require you to grind the necessary relics in order to attempt to get them.

So it is not like you get the whole thing after doing one lucky radshare.  There is much more to it. 

Why am I not surprised the slightest with all the dishonesty coming from someone with the "don't attempt to criticize the system, just shut up and take it" attitude ? Classic.

Edited by White_Matter
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4 minutes ago, Ailia_Grimm said:

100% was an example, don't take it so seriously

well something that could be implemented which would still keep the grind. 

 

so you run a relic & dont get the gold (normal) on the next run 1% chance is added & so on. so when run 55 happens you now have a 65% chance & if you havent gotten gold you will automatically get it on run 90 (100%)

 

anyway you look at this it is frustrating to make run after run after run with crap you dont need

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2 minutes ago, Ailia_Grimm said:

100% was an example, don't take it so seriously

I was saying that half of the post you made is correct.

I did not read "100%" and instantly made a post telling you that you're wrong.

Please read my posts more carefully, if you do not wish to do that, please do not reply to them, if you ignore everything but a single number I wrote, the post has an entirely different meaning and all context is lost.

 

Everything below my bolded "This is true" is just reiterating a segment out of my 1st long post in this thread, as I don't know if you have bothrered to read it by now, if you did, you will notice that every subsequent post is just repeating points I have already made.

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Just now, 16Bitman said:

I was saying that half of the post you made is correct.

I did not read "100%" and instantly made a post telling you that you're wrong.

Please read my posts more carefully, if you do not wish to do that, please do not reply to them, if you ignore everything but a single number I wrote, the post has an entirely different meaning and all context is lost.

 

Everything below my bolded "This is true" is just reiterating a segment out of my 1st long post in this thread, as I don't know if you have bothrered to read it by now, if you did, you will notice that every subsequent post is just repeating points I have already made.

Some people are fundamentally unteachable. Even if you prove them wrong with carefully laid out steps they will simply move the goalposts to "but I said this other thing that was right, so there!" 

I commend your effort, and everything you've said is absolutely right. But I think you're wasting your time :(

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38 minutes ago, 16Bitman said:

[...] please do not reply to them

Will do, bye

 

40 minutes ago, Bengalbird said:

well something that could be implemented which would still keep the grind. 

 

so you run a relic & dont get the gold (normal) on the next run 1% chance is added & so on. so when run 55 happens you now have a 65% chance & if you havent gotten gold you will automatically get it on run 90 (100%)

 

anyway you look at this it is frustrating to make run after run after run with crap you dont need

That was proposed years ago, getting increased chance each time you didn't get a rare item

I think the OP of that topic said another game they were playing did this, & it worked wonderfully

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4 hours ago, Ryuujou. said:

hey, I get to use this meme again

w9U4sVi.jpg

This actually happened with Nautilus and other Railjack point-of-interest rewards when not returning to dojo/relay and just spamming the same node. Find the fix mentioned in past patch notes.

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8 minutes ago, Ailia_Grimm said:

Will do, bye

 

That was proposed years ago, getting increased chance each time you didn't get a rare item

I think the OP of that topic said another game they were playing did this, & it worked wonderfully

it should be revisited then as the current system is frustrating,

there was someone who posted (im not going to look back to exactly what was said) that no one comes to post when they get a rare on their first try, well that is true to a point, when/if it happens i would post in the squad my utter suprise though.

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4 hours ago, White_Matter said:

When did you realize the OP is fraudulent and who do you suggest it should be replaced with ?

In my case right after the thread title was implemented. 

But recently, after getting Gara Prime in less than a week, I realize the relic system is great once again.

No more 5% drop chances from a 20 wave defense. 

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Posted (edited)
vor 2 Stunden schrieb Bengalbird:

no one comes to post when they get a rare on their first try, well that is true to a point, when/if it happens i would post in the squad my utter suprise though.

Oh please, stop with the hyperbole already. It's a 1 in 3 chance in a rad share. That's not something one can reasonably feel "utter surprise" about. On average, that happens to everyone every time new Prime stuff drops.

Edited by Krankbert
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6 minutes ago, SheikaVoid said:

I think people need to remember that a percentile chance is percentile per roll, which means you're not getting 20% from four 5% rolls, it's 5% per roll.

I explained that earlier but it took sometime for one person to get it, so don't bother trying

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