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When did you realize the relic system is fraudulent and what do you suggest it should be replaced with ?


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vor 7 Stunden schrieb White_Matter:

In my case right after it was implemented. 

But recently, after getting 3 common and 1 *uncommon drops on my 7th radiant AXI G6 run for the Gara BP, I realized the relic system is absolute garbage once again. Through out those 7 runs, all 4 people had radiant relics and didn't even get a rare drop once and it was mostly common rewards eventhough statistically it shouldn't be the case.

 

Less dilluted loot tables, or a token system is needed urgently.

edit : *meant to say uncommon not rare

Yes. the chance doesn't work. without lfg I wouldn't farm anything specifically and I wouldn't update my keys for the public. absolute waste of time. especially with 1000+ keys! and every day more come in than I unlocked.

there's this weird secret labs mission. here you can see immediately that this lousy drop chance is not working. because without SP, without booster and without loot frame you can farm the mods almost FOREVER! however, that changes immediately when you have all those buffs! and i had all mods in a few hours.

so much for that ......

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vor 3 Stunden schrieb White_Matter:

Now that I read this, I felt some shame. For you.

  

The BP is just one of 4 pieces of loot you need for the frame. Which all require you to grind the necessary relics in order to attempt to get them.

So it is not like you get the whole thing after doing one lucky radshare.  There is much more to it. 

Why am I not surprised the slightest with all the dishonesty coming from someone with the "don't attempt to criticize the system, just shut up and take it" attitude ? Classic.

Yet you did not address any of my questions.

I got the frame and both prime weapons in 2 hours and honestly, I was a bit sad that it was over so soon. Yes, this might have been a lot of luck, but I blew through content in 2,5 hours that they set up for 3 months. But of course, I had other things that I needed to farm for a lot longer. My 2nd Protea took 2 weeks to get her. In the meantime I helped a friend of mine to farm Gara Prime and she was not so lucky. But we fun playing the game, so that time flew by.

And your "there is much more to it"... ? I play this game for 8 years and I NEVER had a problem to get a silver or bronze drop. Granted, sometimes the gold drop might need a bit more effort, but silver and bronze?

Last but not least, you are required to grind the necessary relics for it? Really? So what is your proposal? That we run a 1,5 minute mission for 3 times on average and are done with the content in 10 minutes??

If you really complain about getting a prime frame, I don't want to see your posting for other items in the game, which can be really a bit frustrating to farm. You should have farmed Necramechs and their weapons when they just arrived.

I do not attempt to criticize the system and "just shut up and take it", because in no way is this any hassle for me. I have 3 months to get the frame. And if I play the game regularly, it would be quite hard to avoid getting the frame. If I would be so angry about the system of prime loot and frames, I would probably think about playing another game, because this one might not be the right one for me. The opposite is true, I have played other F2P games and I am happy that I can target farm the things that I want. In other games, you would not have the possibility to farm the items, you would need to buy lootboxes and be LUCKY that the frame you want to be in it.

But since I really want you to enjoy the game, here are some hints how you can cut down your time:

1. Prepare prime releases by making sure that all your syndicates are filled with affinity and buy the relic packs after the patch is out.

2. Prepare by farming the syndicate items in the syndicate missions to get even more affinity.

3. Prepare by farming Steel Essences, which you can sell for relic packs as well.

4. Prepare by farming plat.... even on release day, you might be able to get the prime frame for 200p, probably even lower. This way, there is no hassle at all about it.

5. Wait a week and you will get the frame for 100p.

6. Farm money in real life and buy the prime access. No hassle at all.... You will even have the great feeling that you supported the game you like. And if you buy the big prime access, maybe you get the money for Christmas/birthday/Diwali, whatever you prefer, you will get 4k plat as an addon, which will enable you to buy the next 20 prime frames after it, if you save the plat, if prices stay like that. 40 if you wait a week. Yeah, I know, not everyone is blessed with such an amount of money. But 20 prime frames means at least 6 years of playing Warframe and never worrying about a single prime farm. And the game is 100% playable for free.

7. Most important: Warframe is a Marathon, not a sprint. If you want all the items and you want them today, you will become frustrated, because the game is simply not build this way. Lower your expectations, join a clan, find friends, talk via Discord or anything else and have fun while doing it.

If all this does not feel fair, I don't know what to say to you. How does this compare to World of Warcraft, where you need to save a bucketload of DKP points on several raids till you get one single item for your toon and you even pay 15 bucks per month?

 

 

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vor 33 Minuten schrieb Ailia_Grimm:

I explained that earlier but it took sometime for one person to get it, so don't bother trying

I still don’t know who you’re explaining this to. No one was saying that.

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Posted (edited)

probability's a b**ch, believe me.

it took me a lot of runs and I still never got Gara Prime's BP, ended up trading in the end. putting math aside, there's a rule which can neither be proven nor disproven to exist, but I would argue it exists, and this rule is simple: the more you want something, the less likely you are to get it. and no, reverse psychology doesn't work, unless you *genuinely* abandon your pursuit of one thing in favour of something else. I'm also a great believer in that each person has a set amount of luck for a period of time, roughly a week, when it comes to RNG: those who get everything they want in one day will then struggle the rest of the week, and vice versa.

the relic system isn't perfect, *cough* it would be if we had a relic kiosk *cough* but it's a damnsite better than the old void key system: at least now we aren't doing mandatory 20 min runs for a chance you have no control over; that absolutely sucked at the best of times. 

Edited by (PSN)robotwars7
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vor 7 Minuten schrieb Dunkelheit:

Yet you did not address any of my questions.

I got the frame and both prime weapons in 2 hours and honestly, I was a bit sad that it was over so soon. Yes, this might have been a lot of luck, but I blew through content in 2,5 hours that they set up for 3 months. But of course, I had other things that I needed to farm for a lot longer. My 2nd Protea took 2 weeks to get her. In the meantime I helped a friend of mine to farm Gara Prime and she was not so lucky. But we fun playing the game, so that time flew by.

It's not about someone being able to farm it in a few hours ...
i unlocked almost everything in a very relaxed manner in publics in 1-2 days. and i only played a few hours a day. rest with people from lfg.

the only thing is that there was a lot of "luck" with it. i know enough examples here and radshare's story turns into a week-long adventure. (if you are a masochist.) there is no fun at all.

and unlocking all parts is no content for me. For me, content is: playing with new items! but i don't, for an obvious reason.

What ever. everyone has their opinion.

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vor 7 Minuten schrieb (PSN)robotwars7:

probability's a b**ch, believe me.

it took me a lot of runs and I still never got Gara Prime's BP, ended up trading in the end. putting math aside, there's a rule which can neither be proven nor disproven to exist, but I would argue it exists, and this rule is simple: the more you want something, the less likely you are to get it. and no, reverse psychology doesn't work, unless you *genuinely* abandon your pursuit of one thing in favour of something else. I'm also a great believer in that each person has a set amount of luck for a period of time, roughly a week, when it comes to RNG: those who get everything they want in one day will then struggle the rest of the week, and vice versa.

the relic system isn't perfect, *cough* it would be if we had a relic kiosk *cough* but it's a damnsite better than the old void key system: at least now we aren't doing mandatory 20 min runs for a chance you have no control over; that absolutely sucked at the best of times. 

I don't think much of the drop chance either. it just has to be scaled: after a key unlock, the chance of rare increases by 1%, for example. then you have at least a realistic possibility of getting it.

the same should also apply to certain mods. because now nothing works without trading!

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vor 1 Minute schrieb Battle.Mage:

It's not about someone being able to farm it in a few hours ...
i unlocked almost everything in a very relaxed manner in publics in 1-2 days. and i only played a few hours a day. rest with people from lfg.

the only thing is that there was a lot of "luck" with it. i know enough examples here and radshare's story turns into a week-long adventure. (if you are a masochist.) there is no fun at all.

and unlocking all parts is no content for me. For me, content is: playing with new items! but i don't, for an obvious reason.

What ever. everyone has their opinion.

Well, in your week long adventure, you will surely find other items which you can sell for plat and buy the BP, right? So there is your fail safe that you guys are arguing over all the time.

 

 

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vor 7 Minuten schrieb Dunkelheit:

Well, in your week long adventure, you will surely find other items which you can sell for plat and buy the BP, right? So there is your fail safe that you guys are arguing over all the time.

 

 

and again you talk past. if you don't even get the point and just want to insult and provoke, then you don't need to enter into a discussion. there is no kindergarten here.

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1 hour ago, (PSN)robotwars7 said:

the more you want something, the less likely you are to get it

While I personally do not actually believe this, I do think it is a good philosophy/mental hack to follow, especially for those of us who have a tendency to get frustrated when we do not get what we want.  It is a rather zen type of thinking that could bring more inner peace for all of us.

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6 hours ago, 16Bitman said:

Yes, that's is quite low, but many drops, which many of us have already obtained, have an even lower chance, it's frustrating, but still far from >nearly< impossible.

Your math is solid, but easily used against you, because I think what you're forgetting is the opposite angle to this; the chances of getting literally any of the other results.

You have a the other 90% split between five other items, all of which have a greater chance to drop than your 10% drop.

So what you have to look at is their odds of success compared to the desired outcome. Rather than purely calculating for the success or failure of that one outcome, you should be making it clear that, as good as the chances of that outcome are, they are still that much lower than the chances of any other outcome.

Using your exact 'chance of failure' calculation, plugging an item with 20% drop chances gives me a 59.04% chance to get one of the Uncommon rewards, or 87.04% chance to get either of them. Then there's the 93.75% chance to get one of the Common tier rewards, while individually their odds are 51.78%. Heck, the same equation to calculate chance of failure comes out at 99.99% chance of getting the combined other options.

Basically, I don't think you can use the 'chances of failure' equation to work this one out ^^

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4 minutes ago, Birdframe_Prime said:

Your math is solid, but easily used against you, because I think what you're forgetting is the opposite angle to this; the chances of getting literally any of the other results.

You have a the other 90% split between five other items, all of which have a greater chance to drop than your 10% drop.

So what you have to look at is their odds of success compared to the desired outcome. Rather than purely calculating for the success or failure of that one outcome, you should be making it clear that, as good as the chances of that outcome are, they are still that much lower than the chances of any other outcome.

Using your exact 'chance of failure' calculation, plugging an item with 20% drop chances gives me a 59.04% chance to get one of the Uncommon rewards, or 87.04% chance to get either of them. Then there's the 93.75% chance to get one of the Common tier rewards, while individually their odds are 51.78%. Heck, the same equation to calculate chance of failure comes out at 99.99% chance of getting the combined other options.

Basically, I don't think you can use the 'chances of failure' equation to work this one out ^^

Actually, 16Bitman's math is correct.  You can use the "chances of getting none" equation to figure this one out, because the opposite (complement) of "chances of getting none" is "chances of getting at least 1".  At 28 runs, of course your chances of getting "at least 1 of a particular uncommon" (20%) is 99.8%, and your chances of getting "at least 1 of any common" (50%) is around 99.99999996%.

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10 minutes ago, Birdframe_Prime said:

Your math is solid, but easily used against you, because I think what you're forgetting is the opposite angle to this; the chances of getting literally any of the other results.

You have a the other 90% split between five other items, all of which have a greater chance to drop than your 10% drop.

So what you have to look at is their odds of success compared to the desired outcome. Rather than purely calculating for the success or failure of that one outcome, you should be making it clear that, as good as the chances of that outcome are, they are still that much lower than the chances of any other outcome.

Using your exact 'chance of failure' calculation, plugging an item with 20% drop chances gives me a 59.04% chance to get one of the Uncommon rewards, or 87.04% chance to get either of them. Then there's the 93.75% chance to get one of the Common tier rewards, while individually their odds are 51.78%. Heck, the same equation to calculate chance of failure comes out at 99.99% chance of getting the combined other options.

Basically, I don't think you can use the 'chances of failure' equation to work this one out ^^

I already told them that the chances weren't additive to each other, even with 4 relics, the chances for each one are still individual

Maybe I'm just expressing myself incorrectly ¯\_( :/ )_/¯

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3 minutes ago, MqToasty said:

At 28 runs, of course your chances of getting "at least 1 of a particular uncommon" (20%) is 99.8%, and your chances of getting "at least 1 of any common" (50%) is around 99.99999996%.

I don't get it, how can at 28 runs, you have simultaneously 99.8% chance for an uncommon, & 99.9 for a common?

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Just now, MqToasty said:

Actually, 16Bitman's math is correct.

It is, but my point is that it can't really be applied here because the chances of getting a result are skewed by having 4 independent rolls. Your base chance of getting any result isn't 100%, you have 4 chances at a drop table, and each chance is 100%.

As pointed out a few times:

Just now, Ailia_Grimm said:

I already told them that the chances weren't additive to each other, even with 4 relics, the chances for each one are still individual

It could actually be easier to put it this way:

Because these are 4 independent RNG rolls, your total chance of a result from that one mission is 400%, so your overall 34.39% is actually not quite as much as you think it is.

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Just now, Birdframe_Prime said:

It could actually be easier to put it this way:

Because these are 4 independent RNG rolls, your total chance of a result from that one mission is 400%, so your overall 34.39% is actually not quite as much as you think it is.

Well, I thought like 2 hours ago that I could say the total was 400% too, but I just thought they weren't going to get it that way either so I just gave up on the whole conversation

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Just now, Ailia_Grimm said:

I don't get it, how can at 28 runs, you have simultaneously 99.8% chance for an uncommon, & 99.9 for a common?

Okay, reasonable question!  The answer is that, by doing a 28 runs, you are opening 28 relics.  So the chances of getting "at least 1 common" and "at least 1 uncommon" will not add up to 100%!

Let's take a smaller example that should be easier to demonstrate.  Suppose you threw a fair coin 2 times.  What are the chances of getting "at least 1 head" and "at least 1 tail"?  We know that every distinct combination is 0.5*0.5 = 0.25.

At least 1 Head:
(H T) + (H H) + (T H) = 0.75

At least 1 Tail:
(H T) + (T T) + (T H) = 0.75

But of course, we could have calculated either one as simply 1 - P("Getting 2 of the opposite"), which would have also given us the correct answer of 0.75 each.  I think part of the misconception is due to the fact that, since we are asking for "at least 1 of ..." through multiple attempts, the outcomes overlap as you could get 1 uncommon the first time, and 1 common the second time.

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10 minutes ago, Birdframe_Prime said:

Because these are 4 independent RNG rolls, your total chance of a result from that one mission is 400%, so your overall 34.39% is actually not quite as much as you think it is.

Actually, saying the total chance is 400% is kind of like adding up the probabilities, which would not bring us to the correct answer either.  The hard way is to do what I did with the simple coin example: list out all possible permutations, calculate the probability of each, and add them up.  But as 16Bitman pointed out, since you can calculate the complement much easier, you might as well take 1-P(complement).

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Posted (edited)

I feel ya. I always get screwed when I am after something specific. 

I just started ignoring relic tables entirely and just spam whatever missions through the course of a week or month. Then I am pleasantly surprised by new things to build in the forge. 

To be fair though, 90% of my arsenal is from relic freebies. Any looser on the RNG and it would be too easy. The RNG is the price we pay for freebies.

I always thought the relic system was incredibly generous. They could simply not have them at all. 

Edited by IIDMOII
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53 minutes ago, MqToasty said:

Okay, reasonable question!  The answer is that, by doing a 28 runs, you are opening 28 relics.  So the chances of getting "at least 1 common" and "at least 1 uncommon" will not add up to 100%!

Let's take a smaller example that should be easier to demonstrate.  Suppose you threw a fair coin 2 times.  What are the chances of getting "at least 1 head" and "at least 1 tail"?  We know that every distinct combination is 0.5*0.5 = 0.25.

At least 1 Head:
(H T) + (H H) + (T H) = 0.75

At least 1 Tail:
(H T) + (T T) + (T H) = 0.75

But of course, we could have calculated either one as simply 1 - P("Getting 2 of the opposite"), which would have also given us the correct answer of 0.75 each.  I think part of the misconception is due to the fact that, since we are asking for "at least 1 of ..." through multiple attempts, the outcomes overlap as you could get 1 uncommon the first time, and 1 common the second time.

Ah, my bad, I thought you were talking about run 28 alone, not all 28 of them

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1 hour ago, Birdframe_Prime said:

Your math is solid, but easily used against you

Math is always correct, there are no opinions here, nothing I said has any chance of being used "against me", if I made a mistake you can correct it, but nothing disproves my one and only point. "This is how math works"

1 hour ago, Birdframe_Prime said:

because I think what you're forgetting is the opposite angle to this; the chances of getting literally any of the other results.

You have a the other 90% split between five other items, all of which have a greater chance to drop than your 10% drop.

So what you have to look at is their odds of success compared to the desired outcome. Rather than purely calculating for the success or failure of that one outcome, you should be making it clear that, as good as the chances of that outcome are, they are still that much lower than the chances of any other outcome.

Why should I go out of my way to make it clear that the drop designated as "rare" is less common than the ones desginated as common and uncommon?

Not talking about the chances of other items, does not make anything I said about the chances of the rare drop any less true, I already filled enough posts talking about a single drop slot (Item desginated as Rare in a Radiant Relic).

Just to clarify my example:

"Chance of success" = The Rare Drop 10%

"Chance of failure" = Anything else 90%

 

1 hour ago, Birdframe_Prime said:

Using your exact 'chance of failure' calculation, plugging an item with 20% drop chances gives me a 59.04% chance to get one of the Uncommon rewards, or 87.04% chance to get either of them. Then there's the 93.75% chance to get one of the Common tier rewards, while individually their odds are 51.78%. Heck, the same equation to calculate chance of failure comes out at 99.99% chance of getting the combined other options.

 

Basically, I don't think you can use the 'chances of failure' equation to work this one out ^^

Your math is correct!

But why is a 99.99% chance to NOT get 4 RARE/GOLD parts on the same endscreen in a Radiant Relic x4 Run such a unlikely outcome? I've NEVER managed to "obtain" this screen when I played the game.

 

That was confusingly worded, so I make it simpler by "reversing" the chance.

 

0.01% chance to see 4 rare relic drops in the same endscreen is the very right number for this outcome. How many times have you personally managed to get that? I've seen screenshots of it myself, but in my tons and tons of x4 radiant relic runs, I have never seen it myself (repeating myself often to put weight on this super rare outcome).

 

Why don't you think this equation works here?

 

1 hour ago, Birdframe_Prime said:

It is, but my point is that it can't really be applied here because the chances of getting a result are skewed by having 4 independent rolls. Your base chance of getting any result isn't 100%, you have 4 chances at a drop table, and each chance is 100%.

Could you please reword this? I don't think I've understood your post correctly and I can not wrap my head around it, is is contradictionary to me.

I will answer your points the way I understood them.

"Your base chance of getting any result isn't 100%"

But it absolutely is! Any Result = Any outcome!

When I open a relic and make it to extraction, my chance of getting one of the items it has listed, is 100%!

"You have 4 chances at a drop table, and each chance is 100%."

But now you are correct again!

If I am in a full squad, with everyone having a relic, we all have a 100% chance to get an item that it has listed and display that item on the end screen.

With 4 of us being there, we will display 4 different results at the same time.

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With the renewed popularity of machine learning and artificial intelligence... and through changes of information dissemination on the Internet... and through the pandemic (which accelerated these changes)...

You can easily find a course on Probability Theory on like youtube or coursera or something... even for free! And I did mention machine learning and artificial intelligence didn't I? These fields (ML is actually a subset of AI) are largely exploiting Probability Theory. Really cool and powerful tool and way of thinking that is applicable to anything from Warframe, Diablo 3 or automatically delineating the liver in CT scans! You should learn it! Very cool stuff!

And yes, 16Bitman is correct. This is not subjective and anyone who "disagrees" with 16Bitman is wrong (I'm not being mean... I'm stating a fact: you're wrong). And seriously... with the availability of course video series and medium blogs and free books from authors who secured the copyrights (e.g. like The Elements of Statistical Learning)... you should go and really give Probability Theory a look (at no cost to you).

That said, while OP is probably not an RNG bug, RNG bugs are in fact real. We recently saw this with Nautilus and other Railjack points-of-interest rewards repeatedly rewarding the same exact reward when spamming the same node (i.e. you didn't return to Dojo). Amber Ayatan Stars also had a bug recently where DE basically said the unusually low drop rate was not intended (yes it's rare, but somehow became rarer than before in one update... basically never dropping for a short time until it was fixed). RNG bugs can be from literal numerical/theoretical problems in the underlying RNG (like RANDU, an linear congruential generators which invalidated DECADES of scientific research) or more commonly from misuse of RNG (bad seeds, parallelism issues, misuse of the integer results... like using the lower bits of random numbers from a linear congruential generators). They're uncommon, but they can and do happen. The second class of RNG bugs are extremely hard for us to detect (because we can only run missions so many times to see if things are distributed properly!).

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Posted (edited)
vor 36 Minuten schrieb nslay:

The second class of RNG bugs are extremely hard for us to detect (because we can only run missions so many times to see if things are distributed properly!).

Also because no one is actually gathering data and that's something that's completely impossible to eyeball because people are terrible at recognizing randomness.

I know of one issue where there was actually something wrong with randomness in a game, and that one I only heard about. (Wi Flag in Asheron's Call - look it up if you don't know about it, it's hilarious.)

Conversely, every single game I ever played had people show up in forums proclaiming that something must be broken because of an unlucky streak they had, or coming up with the most convoluted ideas about how the game rolled for drops to explain why they didn't get a certain one. In two games, Onyxia doing Deep Breath more often and the Bonedancer's instant life leech getting resisted more often became a running gag because those came up every single patch like clockwork.

So can RNG bugs happen? Yes. Do they happen? Essentially, no.

Edit: Also kudos to 16Bitman for having the patience to explain probability theory to people who see someone write 34 and conclude that he must have arrived at that number by adding 10 four times.

Edited by Krankbert
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I propose a new system, upon which a water based feminine deity, perhaps some dweller of a lake, distribute our chosen relics items, per her whim and fancy!! Like some sort of aquatic ceremony, upon which our shiny shimmering Prime parts can be obtained!! 

I sympathise with you OP and like minded views, I disagree the system is fraudulent, but I sympathise. Statistics can be deceiving/misleading, and game RNG systems can be weird, so what I feel like is being pleaded, is an improvement to how such systems feel in the context of conscious and active effort upon influencing the outcome of odds, but phew... personally, I a not opposed to such changes, just I imagine its a pretty precarious matter to DE and players by extension.

I sell Prime parts to other players, to help fund my Fashion Frame addiction, and apart from Sorties, there isn't that much else I do. This is context for the fact that I do a lot of Relic opening, but most of the time its not for myself, and sometimes a days worth of experience can be radically different as far as 'luck/rng' as I imagine we all do experience... Just sometimes we get lucky with stuff we don't really care for, and sometimes we get unlucky with stuff we do care for, and then depending on the ratio of things we care for (getting as a reward) versus not caring, that can affect our perceptions of luck/bad luck (which is why a lot of people like the joke of the desire sensor and how to get the reward you want, you have to not want that reward) and lets say hypothetically, DE changes the system... in the short term, for those that want more influence on the system to reward effort and energy, this would be see better results/success, but also this would affect the games market a lot too, because those like myself, will also find it easier to get the parts to sell, in the short term and long term... we'd be affecting the rarity of items. Personally, I'd be fine with adjusting, and don't really have a strong stance either way, but others might... but also, I don't bring up others for that reason... I bring up others... because if things change, and things break because of a new system... DE probably can't just switch back to an old system or make a new system after 6 months... because that would be even worse for the games stability/lead to weird situations.

Basically its hard to run back such changes, so even if the system seems flawed/annoying to many of us at times, its probably unlikely to change significantly. I had a friend, we ran over 100 RAD AXI B3's together and never got the Baza Stock, but also out of 6 Octavia BP Relics, 4 of the times I got the Rare piece. This might seem corny or dumb to add, but since there is nothing we can really do to ensure we get the Relic piece we want with our efforts/control, we can instead emphasis more on what we can control, and thats our outlook. Which of course, criticism/complaining is a valid expression, just I don't think the system will change anytime. 

 

Good luck in the future though! 

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13 hours ago, Krankbert said:

Oh please, stop with the hyperbole already. It's a 1 in 3 chance in a rad share. That's not something one can reasonably feel "utter surprise" about. On average, that happens to everyone every time new Prime stuff drops.

WOW big words AND used correctly. Nicely done. That said With the 1 in 3 chance what are the odds being 1 in 3 to NOT recieve the gold after 50 (now 53) and still not get "the gold? Also as i said in an earlyer post this isn't trying for Gara prime its a part to rank up with steel meridian

Oh BTW the have been refined I dont have the exact breakdown but more then half were radiant so forgive me for having frustration

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