When did you realize the relic system is fraudulent and what do you suggest it should be replaced with ?

[Skoomaseller]

On 2021-06-03 at 10:09 PM, White_Matter said:

In my case right after it was implemented. 

But recently, after getting 3 common and 1 *uncommon drops on my 7th radiant AXI G6 run for the Gara BP, I realized the relic system is absolute garbage once again. Through out those 7 runs, all 4 people had radiant relics and didn't even get a rare drop once and it was mostly common rewards eventhough statistically it shouldn't be the case.

 

Less dilluted loot tables, or a token system is needed urgently.

edit : *meant to say uncommon not rare

why didn't you pray wtf

[Kaotyke]

1 hour ago, LillyRaccune said:

Wasn't there a scandal a few years ago about the drop rate of Forma blueprints? Could that have anything to do with this situation?

"Scandal"? You mean the people doing 40 Waves of Tower Key Defence and getting 5 Formas and 3 packs of Fusion R5 Cores?

Or the "Scandal" of 4 Radiated Relics giving 4 Formas?

Or the "Scandal" of 4 Radiated Relics giving 4 UNCOMON Formas?

[LillyRaccune]

54 minutes ago, Kaotyke said:

Or the "Scandal" of 4 Radiated Relics giving 4 Formas?

I think that one... I only am aware of it because of passive comments. There was something about the "drop rate being confirmed" and the rate listed on the drop table was a complete lie. But like I said, it was only mentioned in passing. I was hoping you might have known if any of that was factual.

[(PSN)Wil_Shatner_face]

On 2021-06-03 at 7:19 PM, Ailia_Grimm said:

I already told them that the chances weren't additive to each other, even with 4 relics, the chances for each one are still individual

Maybe I'm just expressing myself incorrectly ¯\_( :/ )_/¯

Omg dude he never said the chances were additive! He literally taught you how the math multiplies to equal roughly 34% in the post that you openly admitted you didn’t read.

I have never facepalmed at someone so hard.

[Kaotyke]

3 hours ago, LillyRaccune said:

I think that one... I only am aware of it because of passive comments. There was something about the "drop rate being confirmed" and the rate listed on the drop table was a complete lie. But like I said, it was only mentioned in passing. I was hoping you might have known if any of that was factual.

Honestly, I think it was a single person who had bad luck raising a stink as if it was a personal attack.

I've seen people come and show their Relics and Waves of Formas/Cores, but it all resumed itself in purest of "REEEEEEEEE"s and nothing much came from them. If it was actually a SCANDAL, I'm sure someone would LOVE to mention it because nothing grabs attention like controversy.

[ShadowZero21]

the people that made warframe probably using BODMAS in the system for the drop rate, and that is probably what messing thing up for some people. Also maths doesn't have an order too working out sums.

[RazerXPrime]

Unlucky RNG = bad loot tables

[SenorClipClop]

I got the Gara Prime BP within 15 minutes of release, on my first Radshare.

I think someone's just salty and trying to explain away what is really just bad luck.

[White_Matter]

On 2021-06-04 at 10:42 PM, (NSW)Rafa-el said:

Every run reset the percentage 

Doubt that because I got the rare part in the first run I did after I made this thread :D

So it took 8 in total. 

edit : I have to note that the relic which got the rare part wasn't mine. I still got a common item.

[16Bitman]

Just now, White_Matter said:

Doubt that because I got the rare part in the first run I did after I made this thread :D

So it took 8 in total. 

That's a 96.57% chance to succeed at that point, congrats on not hitting the unlucky 1%!

[White_Matter]

Just now, 16Bitman said:

That's a 96.57% chance to succeed at that point, congrats on not hitting the unlucky 1%!

Man I was thinking about asking you what the chance of me not getting the relic in the 8th run would be and you replied before I did. Thanks.

[Venus-Venera]

vor 10 Stunden schrieb SenorClipClop:

I got the Gara Prime BP within 15 minutes of release, on my first Radshare.

I think someone's just salty and trying to explain away what is really just bad luck.

me too. but i also know the secret trick: turn 3 times in a circle, clap hands and sing "tumba jumba".

just come up with more fairy tales about ideal drop chance.

 

[Graavarg]

On 2021-06-03 at 4:15 PM, White_Matter said:

4 radiant relics mean I should have 34% chance to have at least 1 rare item. In 7 runs I didn't get a single rare item and 70% of the drops were common items.

5 radshare runs (5x4=20 radiant relics cracked) means you have less than 90% chance to get one radiant drop. So more than one in ten of 5 radshares will result in "not a single radiant". 

With 7 radshares (7x4=28 radiant relics cracked) your chance is a bit better, but still more than one in twenty (5.2%) will result in "not a single radiant". You just happened to be the one player in twenty to have bad luck.

Luckily you got it on the next run (my "record" is getting it on the 12th run...).

[Venus-Venera]

vor 7 Minuten schrieb Graavarg:

5 radshare runs (5x4=20 radiant relics cracked) means you have less than 90% chance to get one radiant drop. So more than one in ten of 5 radshares will result in "not a single radiant". 

With 7 radshares (7x4=28 radiant relics cracked) your chance is a bit better, but still more than one in twenty (5.2%) will result in "not a single radiant". You just happened to be the one player in twenty to have bad luck.

Luckily you got it on the next run (my "record" is getting it on the 12th run...).

good that math works on paper. that's why many win the lottery. everything can be calculated. or not?

[Graavarg]

Just now, Battle.Mage said:

good that math works on paper. that's why many win the lottery. everything can be calculated. or not?

Math always works, and not only on paper. It is usually the understanding of math that is the problem...

[Venus-Venera]

Gerade eben schrieb Graavarg:

Math always works, and not only on paper. It is usually the understanding of math that is the problem...

i know a lot of extreme examples where theories fail absolutely and these arithmetic are just embarrassing.
were there no bugs in the code? wrong drop chance or certain parts did not drop at all and were submitted with alerts?
or one player gets something after 1-3 runs and the other player farms for weeks?
How helpful is the drop chance calculation here again?

[nslay]

1 minute ago, Battle.Mage said:

i know a lot of extreme examples where theories fail absolutely and these arithmetic are just embarrassing.
were there no bugs in the code? wrong drop chance or certain parts did not drop at all and were submitted with alerts?
or one player gets something after 1-3 runs and the other player farms for weeks?
How helpful is the drop chance calculation here again?

This is a simple example... you don't need to understand it to know how ridiculous the theorem is (despite its name, it's actually a proper theorem):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banach–Tarski_paradox

There is an axiom (that shall not be named in this post) that allows you do this and therefore this is a proper theorem (only a paradox in common sense)... and it's an important axiom for other results... but this one is absolute bonkers. This is all controversial and controversy shouldn't happen in math.

[16Bitman]

12 minutes ago, Battle.Mage said:

good that math works on paper. that's why many win the lottery. everything can be calculated. or not?

Harshly rounded numbers were used:

In order to have a 51% win chance to win the lottery, you need to play 1 million times, assuming you play once every week, you are long dead before you win.

[Venus-Venera]

Gerade eben schrieb 16Bitman:

Harshly rounded numbers were used:

In order to have a 51% win chance to win the lottery, you need to play 1 million times, assuming you play once every week, you are long dead before you win.

Yes or no. there are extremely many factors involved.
or as someone said after being asked what chance you have of winning the lottery: "50% / 50%! either you win or not ..."
so is absurd here too.

[Graavarg]

8 minutes ago, Battle.Mage said:

i know a lot of extreme examples where theories fail absolutely and these arithmetic are just embarrassing.
were there no bugs in the code? wrong drop chance or certain parts did not drop at all and were submitted with alerts?
or one player gets something after 1-3 runs and the other player farms for weeks?
How helpful is the drop chance calculation here again?

Look, if you want to try to convince me (or anyone) that statistical probability "doesn't work" (and do so with examples, no less), feel free. Unless your extreme examples involves stuff like quantum mechanics (which is a sort of probability, but has it's own rules, kind of).

"Bugs in code" has nothing to do with statistical probability, neither does god, rain dances (someone did suggest that, didn't they... 🙂), lucky charms or sunspots.

Basic probability (of something with a normalized distribution) just says what your chances are to get a "hit", in one or multiple tries. Nothing more, nothing less. A chance of 1% equals one person in a hundred or one try out of a hundred tries, on average. It's not that complicated. And btw, getting a "miss" does not improve your chance of getting a subsequent "hit" (that's the most common misconception of all).