lich weapon %... true RNG?

[sunderthefirmament]

Am I just getting fantastically bad luck, or are Kuva Lich elemental bonus damage %'s not really RNG?  I know the range is 25-60%.  But it seems like the lower numbers are weighted more.  Earlier threads were commenting on how it seems to be weighted in that direction, like you are way more likely to get a 25% than a 60%, but I didn't want to necro something from 2019.

 

My last four Kuva Twin Stubbas have all been sub 33%.  Feels bad.

[16Bitman]

Yup, the majority of my kuva weapons have been below 30%.

There's no info on how the game distributes those weapons, but I guess it can be anything from 1% to 60% and everything below 25% gets set to the min value of 25%.

[(XBOX)C11H22O11]

At least there's fusion

[sunderthefirmament]

3 minutes ago, (XBOX)C11H22O11 said:

At least there's fusion

Yes.  The lich system has certainly come a long way. 

[0_The_F00l]

Yes it does seem weighted towards the lower ranges ,

I literally have more than a hundred liches as of now.

I will update this post with their % distribution once I count em.

@sunderthefirmament

Update:

So here is the distribution

Total liches = 101 (no joke that is how many i have in the codex)

Exactly 25 = 15

between 26 to 30 = 24

between 31 to 35 = 16

between 36 to 40 = 11

between 41 to 45 = 10

between 46 to 50 = 5

between 51 to 55 = 11

between 56 to 59 =8

Exactly 60 = 1

so it does average out at roughly 36 ,

more than half are at less than 35 % bonus so it does seem that its a skewed bell curve instead of being centered on 42.5.

the peak seems to be near 26.5% , this weighting is surprisingly similar to the relic reward distribution.

so i estimate there is a

55% chance to get something under 35% bonus (common),

35% chance to get something between 35 to 55% bonus (uncommon)

and 10% chance to get something above 55% bonus. (rare)

I am really not surprised.

[quxier]

11 minutes ago, sunderthefirmament said:

My last four Kuva Twin Stubbas have all been sub 33%.  Feels bad.

How many weapon/Liches have you done? You can have "strike" with few low % weapons. That's nothing unusual.

From my perspective % is around ~40. I get few 50ish and some 30/20ish. It's still better than solo radiant relics: 26 runs yields 26 common or uncommon forma.

[sunderthefirmament]

19 minutes ago, quxier said:

How many weapon/Liches have you done? You can have "strike" with few low % weapons. That's nothing unusual.

From my perspective % is around ~40. I get few 50ish and some 30/20ish. It's still better than solo radiant relics: 26 runs yields 26 common or uncommon forma.

53 that I initiated + 4 that I traded for (ignoring their %'s, as I just wanted their ephemera or their weapon for MR but had no intention of ever maxing it out... Kuva Kraken, for example).

 

I checked my numbers in a spreadsheet, and the vast majority of my liches have been in the 25-35% range.  Like double my other numbers, or more.

[SneakyErvin]

I wouldnt be surprised if it is weighted.

 

[quxier]

8 minutes ago, sunderthefirmament said:

53 that I initiated + 4 that I traded for (ignoring their %'s, as I just wanted their ephemera or their weapon for MR but had no intention of ever maxing it out... Kuva Kraken, for example).

 

I checked my numbers in a spreadsheet, and the vast majority of my liches have been in the 25-35% range.  Like double my other numbers, or more.

If you have spreadsheet then could you take a mean value of those 53 samples?

I had 10 liches (1 active) so take it with a grain of salt because it's small number:

Quote

	25
	42
	34
	51
	38
	36
	41
	51
	48
	37
Mean value	40,3

And based on my calculation it's close to expected value (60 - 25 = 35; 35 / 2 = 17.5; 25 + 17.5 = 42.5).

[sunderthefirmament]

19 minutes ago, quxier said:

If you have spreadsheet then could you take a mean value of those 53 samples?

I had 10 liches (1 active) so take it with a grain of salt because it's small number:

And based on my calculation it's close to expected value (60 - 25 = 35; 35 / 2 = 17.5; 25 + 17.5 = 42.5).

I don’t think I can get a mean on mobile, but when I hit “Explore” it’s telling me that 80% of my values are less than or equal to 42. I’ll add the mean when I’m on my desktop. 

[LSG501]

When the main source of 'content' is repeating the same things over and over the 'best' way to get people to do things more than once is to give you a reward with weaker stats which you can 'increase' by doing the same thing over and over again.... they've done the same with railjack too, which again doesn't really have a lot of content when you look at it subjectively.

It's pretty much a given that there is a higher weighting on the lower stat gear.  If it wasn't a conscious decision it would have, imo, been designed so those 5 forma, which aren't really needed, would increase the base stat to max stat like the paracesis does. 

 

[sunderthefirmament]

1 hour ago, 0_The_F00l said:

Yes it does seem weighted towards the lower ranges ,

I literally have more than a hundred liches as of now.

I will update this post with their % distribution once I count em.

@sunderthefirmament

Update:

So here the distribution

Total liches = 101 (no joke thats how many i have in the codex)

Exactly 25 = 15

between 26 to 30 = 24

between 31 to 35 = 16

between 36 to 40 = 11

between 41 to 45 = 10

between 46 to 50 = 5

between 51 to 55 = 11

between 56 to 59 =8

Exactly 60 = 1

so it does average out at roughly 36 ,

more than half are at less than 35 % bonus so it does seem that its a skewed bell curve instead of being centered on 42.5.

the peak seems to be near 26.5%

Thanks for doing this. You have almost twice as many liches as I do, so your data is more valuable than mine. 
 

I am not surprised by your findings. 

[quxier]

1 minute ago, sunderthefirmament said:

I don’t think I can get a mean on mobile, but when I hit “Explore” it’s telling me that 80% of my values are less than or equal to 42. I’ll add the mean when I’m on my desktop. 

Having values less or equal than 42 doesn't mean too much. Sure, it's important* but you can still have "equal" number of values. With my numbers I have 7 numbers less than 42. So it's 70%.

You could just sum all values & divide by how many Liches you had but I'll wait. I don't know how those devices work.

* those things and other are important but it depends what you want to do with numbers. You may need number that are "far from" random but fits your game (or something) good.

[sunderthefirmament]

1 hour ago, quxier said:

Having values less or equal than 42 doesn't mean too much. Sure, it's important* but you can still have "equal" number of values. With my numbers I have 7 numbers less than 42. So it's 70%.

You could just sum all values & divide by how many Liches you had but I'll wait. I don't know how those devices work.

* those things and other are important but it depends what you want to do with numbers. You may need number that are "far from" random but fits your game (or something) good.

The average for my 57 liches was 33.9%.  Median was 31.  Minimum value was 25.  Highest value was 58.

[Tiltskillet]

I wish I could remember the Tenno who did it, but last year somebody posted their data from a few hundred liches and it was clearly weighted -hard- toward the lower percentages.  Like, weighted substantially enough that DE wasn't really trying to be sneaky about it.

[quxier]

19 minutes ago, sunderthefirmament said:

The average for my 57 liches was 33.9%.  Median was 31.  Minimum value was 25.  Highest value was 58.

34 is very low. If it was few % below or above then it would be fine but not ~10.

3 hours ago, 0_The_F00l said:

the peak seems to be near 26.5% , this weighting is surprisingly similar to the relic reward distribution.

so i estimate there is a

55% chance to get something under 35% bonus (common),

35% chance to get something between 35 to 55% bonus (uncommon)

and 10% chance to get something above 55% bonus. (rare)

I am really not surprised.

Hah, if I had similar luck with my relics as with Liches then I would have some uncommon/rare stuffs. I've run 27 radiants solo. I got 1 rare/uncommon stuff (don't remember). The rest 26 (27th run was lucky) runs gave me only common stuffs & uncommon forma.

Unrestricted randomness can be mean sometimes. I don't think they restrict any randomness in this game.

[sunderthefirmament]

4 minutes ago, quxier said:

34 is very low. If it was few % below or above then it would be fine but not ~10.

 

I'm pretty sure it's weighted towards the lower end, based on my 57 liches and on others commenting here and in other threads.

[Tiltskillet]

Personal statistics for 47 liches.... (What can I say, I'm an amateur.)

Average: 35.085

Top ten: 

1	57
2	53
3	52
4	52
5	50
6	49
7	48
8	48
9	47
10	45

 

Bottom ten:

38	26
39	26
40	26
41	26
42	26
43	25
44	25
45	25
46	25
47	25

lol

Small sample size, of course.   But it seems to me that bottom ten is particularly damning.  Maybe somebody with a better any understanding of statistics could say something about those probabilities.

Here's the complete list for reference:

Spoiler

1	57
2	53
3	52
4	52
5	50
6	49
7	48
8	48
9	47
10	45
11	45
12	44
13	43
14	43
15	43
16	41
17	37
18	36
19	35
20	34
21	33
22	32
23	32
24	31
25	31
26	31
27	29
28	28
29	28
30	28
31	28
32	28
33	27
34	27
35	27
36	26
37	26
38	26
39	26
40	26
41	26
42	26
43	25
44	25
45	25
46	25
47	25

 

 

[GwinKyblood]

mehhh u dont need good %, it's just a few damage added a infinite damage.
so u dont need do this meme grind to get (∞ + % damage). We have infinite damage in many weapons soooooo.... it's time wasted for nothing :)))))))))

 

[0_The_F00l]

22 minutes ago, quxier said:

34 is very low. If it was few % below or above then it would be fine but not ~10.

Hah, if I had similar luck with my relics as with Liches then I would have some uncommon/rare stuffs. I've run 27 radiants solo. I got 1 rare/uncommon stuff (don't remember). The rest 26 (27th run was lucky) runs gave me only common stuffs & uncommon forma.

Unrestricted randomness can be mean sometimes. I don't think they restrict any randomness in this game.

I think your attempts are too few to make a conclusion.

[Miser_able]

4 hours ago, sunderthefirmament said:

 not really RNG? 

just because its weighted towards certain numbers does not mean it isnt still RNG.

[sunderthefirmament]

6 minutes ago, Miser_able said:

just because its weighted towards certain numbers does not mean it isnt still RNG.

Yeah, I could be using that term wrong.  I guess what I was initially asking was "Do all possible damage %'s have an equal likelihood of appearing?"  And the answer so far seems to be no.  Although RNG is involved, it seems to be weighted towards the lower end of the spectrum.

[(PSN)Jacobivan]

4 hours ago, 0_The_F00l said:

Yes it does seem weighted towards the lower ranges ,

I literally have more than a hundred liches as of now.

I will update this post with their % distribution once I count em.

@sunderthefirmament

Update:

So here is the distribution

Total liches = 101 (no joke that is how many i have in the codex)

Exactly 25 = 15

between 26 to 30 = 24

between 31 to 35 = 16

between 36 to 40 = 11

between 41 to 45 = 10

between 46 to 50 = 5

between 51 to 55 = 11

between 56 to 59 =8

Exactly 60 = 1

so it does average out at roughly 36 ,

more than half are at less than 35 % bonus so it does seem that its a skewed bell curve instead of being centered on 42.5.

the peak seems to be near 26.5% , this weighting is surprisingly similar to the relic reward distribution.

so i estimate there is a

55% chance to get something under 35% bonus (common),

35% chance to get something between 35 to 55% bonus (uncommon)

and 10% chance to get something above 55% bonus. (rare)

I am really not surprised.

Oh, i feel lucky then. My lowest one was 34%(stubbas) , others were 45-59. I only defeated one for each weapon +one extra for better % on Stubbas. While also getting all ephemeras in the process... 

RnJesus is sure to take his due with upcoming lich and sister weapons, though;-)

[quxier]

59 minutes ago, Miser_able said:

just because its weighted towards certain numbers does not mean it isnt still RNG.

51 minutes ago, sunderthefirmament said:

Yeah, I could be using that term wrong.  I guess what I was initially asking was "Do all possible damage %'s have an equal likelihood of appearing?"  And the answer so far seems to be no.  Although RNG is involved, it seems to be weighted towards the lower end of the spectrum.

The thing with (true) randomness is that it's "unpredictable" (Miser_able probably knows that). Given number(s) you cannot predict another number.

Unrestricted randomness doesn't work out of the box in lots of cases. There are (probably many) other "things" that could work instead of randomness.

1 hour ago, 0_The_F00l said:

1 hour ago, quxier said:

34 is very low. If it was few % below or above then it would be fine but not ~10.

Hah, if I had similar luck with my relics as with Liches then I would have some uncommon/rare stuffs. I've run 27 radiants solo. I got 1 rare/uncommon stuff (don't remember). The rest 26 (27th run was lucky) runs gave me only common stuffs & uncommon forma.

Unrestricted randomness can be mean sometimes. I don't think they restrict any randomness in this game.

I think your attempts are too few to make a conclusion.

Yeah, I guess ~100 attempts would be fine (based on my experience with playing with RNG some time ago, not statistics or something).  10 is low, hence I said "with grain of salt".

[(PSN)AllOrNothinDays]

Imagine all the time people may have spent on the kuva nukor lol. Don't know how people bring themselves to bother with this mechanic by this point.