19 Sisters, 1 Ephemera

[ReddyDisco]

33 minutes ago, Planetary_Devastation said:

 

While being conflicted on which ritual to perform to gain RnG's favor, I did both but grilled the Chihuahua and season it with greased sandals

RnG has listened and I seized the ephemera I was looking for, I humbly thank you two for your guidance and wish you to the very best.

Thank you,

~Your pupil PD

 

Disclaimer: Some chihuahuas were harmed in the making of this ritual, kindly don't try this at home

[xcrimsonlegendx]

Its a 20% chance to get an ephemera.

But I prefer to look at is as an 80% chance not to get one.

[Tesseract7777]

Just now, xcrimsonlegendx said:

Its a 20% chance to get an ephemera.

But I prefer to look at is as an 80% chance not to get one.

It's the mentally healthier way of looking at it. 

[(PSN)darin1355]

8 hours ago, Loza03 said:

Actually, that's more or less what you'd expect. It's a 20% drop rate, so roughly speaking, out of every 20 the average person should get one.

Thats 4% man not 20%.

[Tesseract7777]

2 minutes ago, (PSN)darin1355 said:

Thats 4% man not 20%.

What I'd like to see from one of the math nerds is an explanation on what the odds are of actually getting say, 4 ephemera from 20 liches, when those are your FIRST 20 liches. 

Or your first 40, etc. 

I think if people understand those probabilities better, they would get less bent out of shape. 

[(PSN)darin1355]

15 minutes ago, Tesseract7777 said:

What I'd like to see from one of the math nerds is an explanation on what the odds are of actually getting say, 4 ephemera from 20 liches, when those are your FIRST 20 liches. 

Or your first 40, etc. 

I think if people understand those probabilities better, they would get less bent out of shape. 

20% is 1 in 5 as a ratio.  However that 20% chance exists every time you spawn a sister or lich. 

[Tesseract7777]

2 minutes ago, (PSN)darin1355 said:

20% is 1 in 5. 

If ephemera's drop at 20% 1 out of every 5 Sisters/Liches should have one. Or 20 in 100. If you vanquished 100 sisters/liches you should have 20 ephemeras. 

I know how to do basic percentages, I'm talking about probabilities. 

Drop rate =/= probability. That's why you are not guaranteed to get something by your tenth try just because it has a 10% drop chance. 

[Paranoicon]

8 hours ago, Loza03 said:

Actually, that's more or less what you'd expect. It's a 20% drop rate, so roughly speaking, out of every 20 the average person should get one.

This is incorrect.

Percentages are not ratios. 20% is not "One time out of five". It's 20%.

Which means that, whenever you kill a Sister, you have an individual 20% chance to get an ephemera.
Every single time, a d10 is cast, and if the numbers aren't 1 or 2, you do not get an ephemera.

I explained this in the past, and I got a very precise addition to the explanation.

Whenever you kill a Sister, you have an 80% chance to NOT get an ephemera.

Think of it like that, and then everything will make more sense. Whatever you decide to do with that info after the fact is up to you.

[vanaukas]

I'll say it again, but DE should make a "learn what is RNG" kind of quest for nwe and old players alike, with rewards you can't buy with platinum or trade, so if someone wants it it's forced to learn how RNG #*!%ing works once for all to end this kind of threads

[Planetary_Devastation]

1 hour ago, vanaukas said:

I'll say it again, but DE should make a "learn what is RNG" kind of quest for nwe and old players alike, with rewards you can't buy with platinum or trade, so if someone wants it it's forced to learn how RNG #*!%ing works once for all to end this kind of threads

ok vEtErAn

So you're saying if we know how rng works that means it's simply going to be in our favour? Either the point of this topic has completely went over your head of or your thinking process is completely flawed, this was a typical complaining nothing more, RnG is not rocket science bozo

[Tesseract7777]

3 minutes ago, Planetary_Devastation said:

ok vEtErAn

It isn't about whether you are a veteran or not. 

It is about whether you understand probability. 

[vanaukas]

1 minute ago, Planetary_Devastation said:

ok vEtErAn

You don't need to be a veteran or new player to understand that RNG it's literally "random", it's basic knowledge

[Tesseract7777]

4 minutes ago, Planetary_Devastation said:

So you're saying if we know how rng works that means it's simply going to be in our favour? Either the point of this topic has completely went over your head of or your thinking process is completely flawed, this was a typical complaining nothing more, RnG is not rocket science bozo

 

11 hours ago, Planetary_Devastation said:

What do you guys think about increasing the chances of an Ephemera by very little depending on how many sisters you've done, I mean...I've legit done 19 and have gotten only one, I know this isn't normal, please share your RnG trauma so I don't feel left out, surely this isn't just happening to me alone.

It may not be rocket science, but if you think that is some extreme outlier or in any way truly abnormal, you don't understand rng as well as you think you do. 

[Planetary_Devastation]

2 minutes ago, Tesseract7777 said:

 

It may not be rocket science, but if you think that is some extreme outlier or in any way truly abnormal, you don't understand rng as well as you think you do. 

Read the topic description, but slower this time

I'll commit another war crime in your name just to know where you got those assumptions from, I understand RnG very clearly just how clear as ice it is, once again, Its NOT rocket science, anyone understands it

9 minutes ago, Planetary_Devastation said:

 This was a typical complaining nothing more, RnG is not rocket science bozo

The fact that you guys read half the sentence and immediately start slamming your keyboard is very mesmerising 

[Tesseract7777]

2 minutes ago, Planetary_Devastation said:

 once again, Its NOT rocket science, 

Read your own words, slower this time. Heck, you even repeated them for me again above. 

11 hours ago, Planetary_Devastation said:

I mean...I've legit done 19 and have gotten only one, I know this isn't normal, 

If you legit believe this, you legit don't understand rng. But you are defensively claiming that Vanuakus is a bozo for suggesting you don't, and that everyone understands it because it "isn't rocket science". 

[Planetary_Devastation]

2 minutes ago, Tesseract7777 said:

Read your own words, slower this time. Heck, you even repeated them for me again above. 

 

And you just repeated my OWN words, congratulations you just outplayed yourself BOZO #2 

And no, you once again missed the point of this thread being a typical complaining topic and none of you boz-fine gentlemen seem to understand that dividing yourselves and taking such a simple discussion and twisting it is not a personality trait

That being said, I'm having fun picking your brain, this community is really something that has never disappointed me, please continue to entertain me with saying the same thing, even I find joy in that 

[Planetary_Devastation]

2 minutes ago, Planetary_Devastation said:

And you just repeated my OWN words, congratulations you just outplayed yourself BOZO #2 

And no, you once again missed the point of this thread being a typical complaining topic and none of you boz-fine gentlemen seem to understand that dividing yourselves and taking such a simple discussion and twisting it is not a personality trait

That being said, I'm having fun picking your brain, this community is really something that has never disappointed me, please continue to entertain me with saying the same thing, even I find joy in that 

I do apologise for being the bearer of bad news on this one but I've seen an unlimited number of players with the same thinking process specially in Warframe, yeah you understand now 

[Tesseract7777]

30 minutes ago, Planetary_Devastation said:

bozo

 

6 minutes ago, Planetary_Devastation said:

BOZO #2 

boz-fine gentlemen

Keep it up lol. 

[Planetary_Devastation]

Just now, Tesseract7777 said:

 

Keep it up lol. 

Enough for the day, I wish you the best chief

[OP-R8R]

So far I only got 2 after 35-40 sisters (dunno exactly).

But "bad luck" seems to be my middle name these days.

[vanaukas]

34 minutes ago, Planetary_Devastation said:

ok vEtErAn

So you're saying if we know how rng works that means it's simply going to be in our favour? Either the point of this topic has completely went over your head of or your thinking process is completely flawed, this was a typical complaining nothing more, RnG is not rocket science bozo

Next time try to quote again instead editing your post, this way I can reply

And no, I didn't say that. Randomness it's random, you can get 1 ephemera on your first lich  or do 100 liches without ephemera, you complained about your numbers being "not normal", but they are. You can't put RNG in your favor for this kind of situation

[(XBOX)YoungGunn82]

Farmed plat, bought all sisters ephemera. 

[(PSN)Silverback73]

11 hours ago, Loza03 said:

EDIT: So... my maths sucks, ignore me.

 

Actually, that's more or less what you'd expect. It's a 20% drop rate, so roughly speaking, out of every 20 the average person should get one.

20 x .2 …

Out of every 20 the average person should get four.

Out of every 5 the average person should get one.

 

[T-Shark69]

Chance Calculator (dskjal.com)

So you too can find out how rare you are.

[LordLeraje]

I wish my drop rates were as good as 1/19. Lucky you

 

DE here is my new rule (see I can make them up too) . I will purchase no platinum until I get a sister's ephemera. If you ever want my money again, FIX YOUR DROP RATES!!!!!