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DE please check your Ephemera drop rate!


Blyker
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It looks like it has been reset to the old 10%. I am at 44 Sisters now and have 4 ephemeras and more people in my clan are talking about similar odds.

The odds on getting max 4 in 44 tries are  4.4%  with a 20% drop rate
The odds on getting max 4 in 44 tries are 53.8% with a 10% drop rate

 

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These numbers are still too thin to base a conclusion on it. Compare even 35 / 200 (seems 'almost' there, but 200 is still low):

up to 35 on 200 tries at 0,2 -> still 'only' 21,5%

up to 35 on 200 at 0,1 -> almost certain 100%

You can't tell though, that it's wrong, can you? I think you rather need a Student's t-test with an applicable significance level to do this.

 

 

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I got the 7 ephemeras + 1 dupe in 25 sisters.

I probably lucked a bit, especially since I got 4 ephemeras back to back and 5 ephemeras over 6 sisters.

https://imgur.com/a/4I7tQ86 Here's the proof.

So the 20% looks good to me, can't tell about my Liches since I did them all before the buff but the old 10% could match the results.

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10 hours ago, --AR--Khalox said:

These numbers are still too thin to base a conclusion on it. Compare even 35 / 200 (seems 'almost' there, but 200 is still low):

Indeed. You really need at least thousands of results to really start drawing conclusions.

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On 2021-08-14 at 2:55 PM, Blyker said:

It looks like it has been reset to the old 10%. I am at 44 Sisters now and have 4 ephemeras and more people in my clan are talking about similar odds.

The odds on getting max 4 in 44 tries are  4.4%  with a 20% drop rate
The odds on getting max 4 in 44 tries are 53.8% with a 10% drop rate

 

Lucky you, I have 2 ephemeras in 37 sisters.

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20 minutes ago, Ms_Salami said:

Lucky you, I have 2 ephemeras in 37 sisters.

The drop rate seems wildly variable if that’s the case, I got two ephemera in four Sisters last night. I’ve gotten seven or eight ephemera total (some duplicates) in 15 - 20 Sisters. That level of variation seems a little unfair.

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On 2021-08-15 at 1:16 AM, --AR--Khalox said:

Although the calculation is correct, this number (44) is too small to draw an empirical conclusion from it.

 

Yup. I went through 32 sisters with no ephemeras and then, lo and behold, my next four had them. 

 

It's RNG. It sucks, and I commiserate with you, but that's really how it goes sometimes.

Edited by Lokanahta
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  • 2 weeks later...
On 2021-08-22 at 9:51 PM, krc473 said:

The drop rate seems wildly variable if that’s the case, I got two ephemera in four Sisters last night. I’ve gotten seven or eight ephemera total (some duplicates) in 15 - 20 Sisters. That level of variation seems a little unfair.

Took me 52 to get them all, never returning to an element I got the ephemera for. Im glad it's over.

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7 minutes ago, Ms_Salami said:

Took me 52 to get them all, never returning to an element I got the ephemera for. Im glad it's over.

I am not sure how many Sisters I am up to now, but I just have two more to get. I get the duplicates almost every time I make one, but the two I actually need won’t come. I expect I will end up with a similar count to you.

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