Blyker Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 It looks like it has been reset to the old 10%. I am at 44 Sisters now and have 4 ephemeras and more people in my clan are talking about similar odds. The odds on getting max 4 in 44 tries are 4.4% with a 20% drop rate The odds on getting max 4 in 44 tries are 53.8% with a 10% drop rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marsuplexi Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 Relatable, my drop rates don't add up either but it could be bad RNG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parabashka Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 5 Ephemeras in 23 Sisters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khalox Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Although the calculation is correct, this number (44) is too small to draw an empirical conclusion from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaZeku Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Meanwhile I had Ephemeras on 2 out of my 3 Sisters :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Planetary_Devastation Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 2 Ephemeras in 26 sisters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blyker Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 With all the people reporting we are at 13 succes in 96 tries. Getting max 13 ephemeras with a 20% dropchance on 96 tries is 6.8% Getting max 13 ephemeras with a 10% dropchance on 96 tries is 90.3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khalox Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 These numbers are still too thin to base a conclusion on it. Compare even 35 / 200 (seems 'almost' there, but 200 is still low): up to 35 on 200 tries at 0,2 -> still 'only' 21,5% up to 35 on 200 at 0,1 -> almost certain 100% You can't tell though, that it's wrong, can you? I think you rather need a Student's t-test with an applicable significance level to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(PSN)Ze_LoBoToMiZeUr Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 I got the 7 ephemeras + 1 dupe in 25 sisters. I probably lucked a bit, especially since I got 4 ephemeras back to back and 5 ephemeras over 6 sisters. https://imgur.com/a/4I7tQ86 Here's the proof. So the 20% looks good to me, can't tell about my Liches since I did them all before the buff but the old 10% could match the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hobie-wan Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 10 hours ago, --AR--Khalox said: These numbers are still too thin to base a conclusion on it. Compare even 35 / 200 (seems 'almost' there, but 200 is still low): Indeed. You really need at least thousands of results to really start drawing conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(PSN)xx_24_K_xx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 19 sisters and not 1 Ephemera 0.00% drop rate. DE gift me all Ephemera's, your forcing people to hate the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ms_Salami Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 On 2021-08-14 at 2:55 PM, Blyker said: It looks like it has been reset to the old 10%. I am at 44 Sisters now and have 4 ephemeras and more people in my clan are talking about similar odds. The odds on getting max 4 in 44 tries are 4.4% with a 20% drop rate The odds on getting max 4 in 44 tries are 53.8% with a 10% drop rate Lucky you, I have 2 ephemeras in 37 sisters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krc473 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 20 minutes ago, Ms_Salami said: Lucky you, I have 2 ephemeras in 37 sisters. The drop rate seems wildly variable if that’s the case, I got two ephemera in four Sisters last night. I’ve gotten seven or eight ephemera total (some duplicates) in 15 - 20 Sisters. That level of variation seems a little unfair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LillyRaccune Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 I've had 16 sisters and zero ephemeras I'm sure the RNG will turn around eventually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lokanahta Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 On 2021-08-15 at 1:16 AM, --AR--Khalox said: Although the calculation is correct, this number (44) is too small to draw an empirical conclusion from it. Yup. I went through 32 sisters with no ephemeras and then, lo and behold, my next four had them. It's RNG. It sucks, and I commiserate with you, but that's really how it goes sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ms_Salami Posted September 4, 2021 Share Posted September 4, 2021 On 2021-08-22 at 9:51 PM, krc473 said: The drop rate seems wildly variable if that’s the case, I got two ephemera in four Sisters last night. I’ve gotten seven or eight ephemera total (some duplicates) in 15 - 20 Sisters. That level of variation seems a little unfair. Took me 52 to get them all, never returning to an element I got the ephemera for. Im glad it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krc473 Posted September 4, 2021 Share Posted September 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ms_Salami said: Took me 52 to get them all, never returning to an element I got the ephemera for. Im glad it's over. I am not sure how many Sisters I am up to now, but I just have two more to get. I get the duplicates almost every time I make one, but the two I actually need won’t come. I expect I will end up with a similar count to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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