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Khora Prime: Hotfix 31.7.1


[DE]Connor
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Any plan on making vendors arcane menu that make sense ? 

Would be great to also have the rank of the arcane you own showing somewhere ( for the lazy peeps who don't own 200 of each single one ) ... right now a rank 5 or 3 just is listed  as a single arcane which is wrong technically since a rank 5 = 21. So chop chop less excalibur deluxe skin and more menu that make sense :D!!.

 

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11 hours ago, master_of_destiny said:

 

Let me summarize this one last time, so you can understand.  At the beginning I stated that you would buy one of everything.  I stated that you would buy 21 arcanes.  I also stated that you did nothing else...so no multiple builds for things like Moas or Kitguns to try new combos.

 

Why did I state this?

 

Let me tell you something that you should be able to understand inherently.  If you change those assumptions the numbers change.  Period.  Let me give you a real situation.  I don't have to engage with the content of the Zariman, beyond the 60 or so void plume pinions that are required.  I can theoretically do this rather easily, and never get a dropped arcane of significant value.  How?  Well, there are these things called universal medallions.  Have you considered that?  I'll assume not.

Well, if I wanted to grind the ever loving crap out of a Lua mission, I could earn the vanishingly rare universal medallion, and on day one have a few hundred in inventory.  Plow them into the level up, and face a total of about 3 thrax units per run.  61*3 = 183.  0.9^183 = 4.2*10^-9....so the likelihood of getting at least one arcane is high...let's do some math there.  We'll assume that you earn three arcane drops, based upon the 1.6 in 1000 chance that you don't get one (0.9^61=0.0016).  Let's assume that the arcanes have a consistent drop value...based upon nothing...  That means AVERAGE(5*5000+2*5500+3*7500+2*8500+3*10000) = 105500/15 = 7033.33 (excuse the capitalization, too much time in excel with equations).  7033.333*3 = 21100....but the range of course is 15000 to 30000 (also note that the distance from average to minimum is about 6k while average to highest is 9k...meaning that it's heavily skewed to be lower).  Hmmm....1000 standing per universal medallion...so 15 to 30 medallions less to earn.  That's even smaller if you decide to take your math, and use the 2500 medallion rewards for running missions.

(All of the above assumes your thrax doesn't get called back to their home planet, and phase through the ceiling or floor.  A bug I've seen way too often.)

 

I'm hoping that you now understand this...the phrase elsewhere is garbage in garbage out, or GIGO.  The entire reason that I didn't explain all of this is that it would literally take hundreds of hours to calculate enough permutations of the earning process to realistically show enough possible earnings avenues.  I short circuit that entire discussion by stating up front that RNG is not considered, and the other conditions.

 

Numbers don't lie.  I didn't lie.  Your inductive reasoning doesn't lie.  Now let me tell you that both you and I are humans.  Our idiot brains assume things like a 10% chance means after 10 tries I have a thing, not that after 10 tries I have won between 0 and 10 times, and the probability of losing all 10 in 0.9^10 = 34.88%.  This is why inductive reasoning makes stupid things feel alright.  I was just unlucky, but I saw someone else win so it's possible.  It's not such a bad grind, because once every so often during the game I get a random hit of dopamine to make the grind not so bad...because living in a Skinner box is really hard for most people to accept.

If it isn't clear already, I start from the assumption that my anecdotal results are garbage.  In fact, everyone's anecdotal experience is garbage.  This is why we need to state base assumptions.  It's also why the math is so often against DE's constructed experience.  They made the trap, and baited it well. 

Putting this into cause and effect statements from DE to the player base.  You complained that you couldn't grind constantly, we gave you medallions that you can grind infinitely.  You complained that the cost was too high, we silently included medallions in the rank-up cost to make the number constant but the actual requirement increase.  You complained that you burnt through the content we set on the table in a matter of days, well we'll just triple to low value cosmetics and make another area to "personalize."  It's not like you have the orbiter and your dojo already...let's turn up the fashion frame is endgame meme from 10 to 12, and break that knob right off the amplifier.  

 

 

Let me end with a simple request, that needs a lot of explanation to make sense.  Please separate the mouse trap from the reward, and be wary that DE has a history of doing things that are crappy until it reaches a boiling point.  It may be hard to accept this, but the human brain is wired to trust and work inductively.  Gambling, whether we spend real money or our time, is meant to prey on that failure in inductive logic.  This game is gambling, period.  You input time, get a roll at a reward, and keep coming back until you either value your time more and buy the thing or get the reward.  Consider that when you defend DE...because monetization experts know this.  They design system like the Zariman over years, to gently start people believing in benevolent actions...until they become malevolent. 

That sounds far fetched, but let me end with the arc of warframe.  In the early days content patches were left, right and center.  You logged on, because this week might introduce a new weapon or frame.  They transitioned into a daily reward scheme, with alerts to spice things up.  They then introduced daily missions via RAIDs and Sorties.  The daily reward system was not pumping out anything of real value, so they setup bigger rewards at regular intervals.  They then decided that the alert system was passe, and started nightwave.  Nightwave is "bigger rewards" with longer timing and maintains the required daily logins lest you miss 7k credits a week.  It offers significantly less random reactors and catalysts as random rewards, runs for half a year, delivers mostly cosmetics as new content, and forces content recycling.  That Eidolon hunt is always a joke, when Scarlet Spear allowed us to get better than a 5% arcane drop rate...  That said, is Nightwave more rewarding?  That's debatable when near the end you've spent months grinding out standing.  Newer players get a hard time, because running a level 15 exterminate for Energy Siphon used to be great...assuming the stars aligned and the alert happened while you were playing.  Now it's grind out rep, wait for RNG appearance that week, and buy.  I cannot say that Nightwave is worse...but I'm also finding it hard to justify caring about the game any more once nightwave hits level 30 and it's another 2-3 months before any content releases...knowing that DE is just using Nightwave to recycle old content for key resources because their content loop has no inherent value in retreading things.  Who actually does a level 15 capture on a planet, when the same level capture in the void is equally challenging but rewards a guaranteed relic as well?  Ahh...the malevolence of apathy.  Apathy in that content was not really designed to be always relevant. 

(Let me give you an example. Guild Wars 2 had level scaling, so epic level 30 loot in a level 10 area was stronger than the stuff there, but nerfed so it was still a challenge.  I don't think a power fantasy looter-shooter should do the same, but there are ways to make things better.  The DE response was add 100 levels, 200% multipliers, and don't scale the mission rewards.  AKA, the Steel Path.  This means all the rewards are about slaughter rather than the missions...which by nature of apathy makes mission rewards functionally such a small part of the reward pie as to be irrelevant.  This means that you really only pay attention to mission type, faction, and largely ignore the other stuff.)

I'm not really defending DE or saying Zariman isn't a grind, I'm just looking at your reasoning of "its the worst grind ever introduced to warframe" and saying no it isn't.

You can't just take a bigger number and say "this is worse" without context. It's like going to Japan and saying "Omg they charge 600 for a burger" while leaving out that its 600 yen. Doing stuff like that completely undermines any legitimate argument you might have had.

Edit to say insinuating that I don't understand probability is a bit of a cheap move, obviously the number of arcanes people get will vary, but it should be a normal distribution. When the number of thrax // angels people kill goes up the chance that someone gets zero arcanes is vanishingly small and you know that, which is why you chose the sample size of 10...

10 is not a sample size, it's an anecdote.

Edited by Myrdinz
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4 hours ago, PollexMessier said:

I've agreed with you no less than 3 times over the course of this conversation. literally all I was trying to say was the way you presented standing as an analogue for how grindy each point of comparison was doesn't work because standing isn't the only grind each one has. And two points I didn't even bring up cus I was trying to keep things short and readable are that standing is gained at different rates, in different ways, for a different amount of effort in each example. The same amount of standing doesn't equal the same amount of grind for each system in the game that uses it. It looks straightforward on paper but its not, it's like comparing currencies from different countries in the real world and saying 1 pence equals 1 yen. It just doesn't translate that way. Comparing standing like that isn't unbiased ether. It's just misleading.

I was actually going to bring up how I think a lot of the new game modes are lazy recycled trash, but again decided against it to save time and cus I felt like it went off topic from the specific conversation I was trying to have. Armageddon is just endless mobile defense, with a tower defense gimmick that's so worthless it might as well not be there, and a forced boss fight that's not even unique to the mode and leaves the target undefended. It's quite possibly the single worst designed game mode in warframe. Cascade is just interception but across an entire randomly generated map and with a gear check (yay...) instead of a capture time. Flood is the most unique of them but if you squint at it it's just a slightly tweaked survival. I would've loved it if we had to collect the orbs from an obstacle course instead of just bunny hopping around towards the nearest mass of shiny balls.

Also thought about bringing up how stupid it was to make the main method of getting standing the Medallion system from syndicate missions, but again thought it was digressing too much. With how it absolutely ruins players' already lacking ability to cooperate in public missions. Which was such an easily foreseeable issue if one single person on the team that looked at it during production ever saw one of the thousands of complaints about medallions being that way already, or if they bothered to properly play test literally anything ever. and the less obvious but very real issue of how much doing it extends mission time to the point that it's probably faster to ignore it entirely and just clear the mission so you can move on to the next one unless you're after specific plumes for crafting.

One thing I think is worth noting tho is that it was never really meant to be a large update on the level of the open worlds. It's really just an intermediate between the new war and the real next big content update the Duviri paradox. It's more comparable in scope and purpose to updates like Deadlock Protocol, Call of the Tempestarii, or Jovian Concord. It looks and feels like an open world but it's more of an entirely separate thing that's just piggybacking on the open world systems.

But you're right. The Zariman is peak soul sucking "least amount of effort put in for maximum play time" on the devs part. And they've been slowly testing the borders of player's tolerance of it ever since I started playing 5 years ago. Probably much earlier than that.

 

Not intended as argumentation, just clarifying my point and reasoning.  Apologies if that was not how it was taken due to how it was delivered.

 

At this point I've spent two pages trying to get people to understand that my opinions are not being argued.  Likewise, despite explaining base assumptions, I've had to review those too because I'm not being entirely fair...despite starting off by defining the assumptions and why they were made.

 

Please take the appropriate grain of salt then.  Whether that be a pinch or something more akin to Utah's flats.

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В 28.07.2022 в 21:51, [DE]Megan сказал:

Fix will be coming in the next HF/Update. 

It didn't come. Nothing changed except for getting affinity and Exodia Force proc. It still doesn't count as kills (except for the after-ulti bleed or exodia proc), it still doesn't get +damage from Arcane Arachne (despite the fact that it affects Shuriken's damage), it still doesn't give us efficiency in SO/ESO (or it do but too little to be noticeable), sadly I have no NW/Riven to check if it counts but im sure it's not.

Anything to say in your defense?

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25 minutes ago, Myrdinz said:

I'm not really defending DE or saying Zariman isn't a grind, I'm just looking at your reasoning of "its the worst grind ever introduced to warframe" and saying no it isn't.

You can't just take a bigger number and say "this is worse" without context. It's like going to Japan and saying "Omg they charge 600 for a burger" while leaving out that its 600 yen. Doing stuff like that completely undermines any legitimate argument you might have had.

 

One, if you want to build a stupid strawman, you've succeeded.  Note where I said it is the worst grind ever, and I'll apologize.

Two, the point is that "the grind is getting worse."  Mathematically it's the truth, period.

Finally, when you deal in hyperbolic statements it's really hard to understand the nuance of stopping stuff before it's a problem.  If I start off by saying the SYNDICATE grind for Zariman is the worst in the game, compare it to other syndicates, do so in a thread about a SYNDICATE, and go out of my way to only cover SYNDICATEs then maybe it's a hint that I'm only talking about syndicates.

 

 

Before you do anything else, let me express why this is a frustration.  5% drop rates, 21 required, 45 minutes every two hours.  Sound familiar...?  Yeah, that's the Eidolon grind.  A 95% chance to not get the one reward you want, the need for 21, and most interestingly of all timed and buggy.  Tell me that you've run 200+ eidolons and not had one die while surrounded by 5 charged lures.  I dare you.

Now, that is the worst grind.  0.95^x= 0.5 is the amount of runs the average player would require to get 1 drop.  x*log(0.95) = log(0.5) -> =log(.5)/log(.95) =  13.5  Note that this is not inductively rational because there is a distribution curve (inductive math states a 1/20 chance requires 20 runs to get on average, right?).  You are calculating the likelihood that the 95% chance of not getting a reward occurs for half the population and using that to say 50% of the population has between 1 and 13.5 arcanes of the desired type.

That's cool if you need 1 drop. What you actually need is 21.  So, x^21=0.5 gives you what percentage of people actually need to have the drop.  log(x)=log(.5)/21 -> =10^(log(0.5)/21) = 0.9675 -> that for 21 drops only 0.0325 of the population can not have at least one for each round.  Remember, somebody out there gets a drop on the first round and doesn't get another until round 90.  

 

Oh boy.  0.95^x=0.0325 -> x=log(.0325)/log(.95) = 66.8 runs 

 

So the math on that is 66.8 runs * 21 arcanes = 1402.8 total captures of the Eidolon to have half of all people with at least 21 of those arcanes.  

Now, that's pretty silly if you:

1) Assume that you've got all the best gear, and one cycle per day is completed.

2) Do at least 2 full tridolons a cycle.  Assume that you never kill the final one, or have rewards phase into the ether.

That means 45 minutes/night, 2 chances/day, 1403 captures required.  Half of everyone would complete at least one full arcane of each type every 702 days.   They'd spend 31590 minutes, or about 22 full 24 hour days grinding in that time.  There would, assuming a large enough pool, be someone with 66 full arcanes, and somebody out there with 0 partial arcanes. 

 

Eidolons are the grand-daddy of grind, because between low chances and the need for so many of them it's literally not obtainable in a reasonable fashion unless you've got lady luck on your side or want to pay (or you did Scarlet Spear and just bought the things years ago).  Heck, the threshold for 1 in 100 players still not having a single drop of the 5% arcane is 0.95^x=0.01 which is 90 (89.78) runs.  1% of people literally kill 90 eidolons and never see an arcane energize drop.  

 

 

If you would like to discuss that in a thread not about Zariman, I'm down.  I'm also down to point out that I made the point about Eidolons being a miserable grind when DE announced they were going from 10 to 21 required arcanes to max them out years ago...and after an avalanche of community feedback stating the same they gave us Scarlet Spear...which was meant as a regular means to buy the arcanes you wanted...and has since become a 1.41% drop from Orphix missions in railjack https://warframe.fandom.com/wiki/Orphix_(Mission)#Veil 

If it isn't abundantly clear, I am aware of basic math.  I have made no claims to Zariman being the worst grind in the game.  I have made claims to it being the worst syndicate for grind.  I have likewise demonstrated that the false equivocations being made left, right, and center about my points are because people fail to read the statements, but are want to read in their own biases.  Full stop.  Next I'll have to answer another person who equates content I like with grind, or another person claiming I don't understand that grind is a necessary part of free to play...despite everything I've done here to clarify that comparative grind is not the same thing as grind as a base concept.  Of course, I have to answer all of this in a snappy retort with three sentences or less...because TL;DR is necessary when people have the attention span of a caffeine addled pygmy shrew.  

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I don't know where you got the idea I was talking about Eidolons, I was comparing the Holdfasts to other Syndicates? You are comparing numbers without context on how fast you earn the reputation.

If you want to try to make fun of me for not adressing your points it might help you to read what I've said, at no point did I compare the holdfasts to Eidolons. I made it very clear I was talking about reputation gains for each syndicate and comparing those.

You made a *quantifiable* claim, that is the only point of your post I contested. Nothing about what you think of the content or the overall game, nothing except your assertion that the Holdfasts are the grindiest syndicate.

 

If you *Still* don't understand what I'm talking about just read through my posts again, I don't think I can make it clearer than I have there.

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3 hours ago, master_of_destiny said:

I have made no claims to Zariman being the worst grind in the game.  I have made claims to it being the worst syndicate for grind. 

Are you joking? it's by far the fastest one to cap your daily standing with o_0   you run 2 T5 missions, and get a total of 10 quills; 25,000 standing. If you do this while it's extermination, it takes you five whole minutes. okay so your daily cap is 32k. Do a third one. 

Tell me, can you max out the cap in Fortuna or Cetus with 2 or 3 bounties? Maybe Deimos. I'll admit Deimos doesn't have people running around looking for waste-of-time voidplumes, but besides the terrible idea of Medallions in the Zariman tileset, this syndicate barely takes a moment out of my day to max out, so often i'll do like six T5 exterminates, and have enough to max out for the next two days until i happen to see another T5 exterminate (nevermind void armageddons and crap). Not to mention plumes being shared pickups among the squad now, so those leechers give you like another few crumbs of standing while you carry their sorry butts.

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1 hour ago, Portuguese_Princess said:

Are you joking? it's by far the fastest one to cap your daily standing with o_0   you run 2 T5 missions, and get a total of 10 quills; 25,000 standing. If you do this while it's extermination, it takes you five whole minutes. okay so your daily cap is 32k. Do a third one. 

Tell me, can you max out the cap in Fortuna or Cetus with 2 or 3 bounties? Maybe Deimos. I'll admit Deimos doesn't have people running around looking for waste-of-time voidplumes, but besides the terrible idea of Medallions in the Zariman tileset, this syndicate barely takes a moment out of my day to max out, so often i'll do like six T5 exterminates, and have enough to max out for the next two days until i happen to see another T5 exterminate (nevermind void armageddons and crap). Not to mention plumes being shared pickups among the squad now, so those leechers give you like another few crumbs of standing while you carry their sorry butts.

 

You...are the winner to the prize for most out of place an irrelevant retort.  Congratulations.

 

5.5 million standing cost versus say, 3.3 million, and you don't believe that the grind is longer because optimized grinding is a thing...never mind that 2 million standing is 62.5 days of logins to get...if you're at MR 32.

Of course, that's a discussion from about 4 pages ago.  

 

 

Sigh....called it.

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