The worst thing about Teshin's Cave RNG: it's not random ENOUGH

[(XBOX)KayAitch]

I started logging what I got in the cave, with a focus on secondaries (which seem to be worst)

Run 1: Sonicor, Talon, single Bolto

Run 2: Dual Cestra, single Kohmak, Talon

Run 3: carried by Tenet Spirex, but rest was Harpak, Mutalist Cernos, Veldt, Heat Dagger, Dual Raza and Ether Reaper.

Run 4: Catabolist, Zylok, Talon

Run 5: single Furis, Tysis

Run 6: single Bolto, Sonicor and Ether Reaper

Run 7: single Furis, single Bolto, single Kohmak

Run 8: single Cestra, single Viper Wraith, Stug

Now I did make some of these runs work, and not everything I've mentioned here is bad, but something really bothers me here...

In 8 runs in succession: 3 Talons, 2 Sonicors, 3 Boltos, 2 Kohmaks, 2 Furis, 2 Ether Reapers.

How?

There are 300-400 weapons to choose from, in 8 rolls the chance of any weapon coming up twice should be very small. I mean, the Birthday Paradox (from probability theory) means it's higher than we expect - my scratch maths puts it at about a 50% chance of 1 dupe secondary in 8 runs.

How do we get not just one dupe, but dupes nearly every run and even some triples?

I don't have any of these dupe weapons. I have a lot of other weapons, but there are still over 100 I don't have (most of which I've never seen in the cave).

Sure, this breaks a fixed meta of Kuva Brammas and Kuva Nukors and whatever, but it's supposed to be the amazing variety of weapons in Warframe, not a new fixed meta of Bolto or Talon.

Can this please be more random? It clearly gets stuck in weapons and brings them back over and over.

You want us to play with new weapons? Sure, then give us new weapons - not the Bolto over and over.

[Synpai]

I don't disagree that it's not true random but I wonder how many of these you don't own?
I own everything so my experience has been similar but with different weapons.

[(XBOX)KayAitch]

8 hours ago, Synpai said:

I don't disagree that it's not true random but I wonder how many of these you don't own?
I own everything so my experience has been similar but with different weapons

I've levelled everything in the game except the Sporothrix, which never comes up in the cave.

I don't own anything that came up as a dupe - the Kohmak, Bolto and Furis got built into the Dual Kohmak, Akbolto and Afuris respectively. The Talon, Sonicor and Ether Reaper I chucked because I never used them and slots cost plat.

But, I don't own about 100-150 weapons, why has it fixed on, say, the useless Furis over any of the others?

I think DE have said somewhere that they prioritise weapons you don't have - I think that prioritisation is where the maths is broken, it probably works if you're MR12 and there's lots of weapons you've never seen. I'm L3 and it picks MR fodder and then gives me the same MR fodder day after day.

[Lord_Drod]

Sporothrix can come up.  I seem to recall seeing it, but I don't have a build for it, just own it.  I own almost every weapon, but I definitely have chucked those single pistols that were not primed.  If they were primed, I kept and made a build for the single.

[(XBOX)KayAitch]

7 hours ago, Lord_Drod said:

Sporothrix can come up.

I think weapons you can't buy in the shop only come up if you already own them.

[(XBOX)KayAitch]

20 hours ago, (XBOX)KayAitch said:

Run 1: Sonicor, Talon, single Bolto

Run 2: Dual Cestra, single Kohmak, Talon

Run 3: carried by Tenet Spirex, but rest was Harpak, Mutalist Cernos, Veldt, Heat Dagger, Dual Raza and Ether Reaper.

Run 4: Catabolist, Zylok, Talon

Run 5: single Furis, Tysis

Run 6: single Bolto, Sonicor and Ether Reaper

Run 7: single Furis, single Bolto, single Kohmak

Run 8: single Cestra, single Viper Wraith, Stug

Run 9: frame is Titania (so it doesn't matter) but Kohmak (3rd time), Stug (2nd time), single basic Lex.

[Grommile]

31 minutes ago, (XBOX)KayAitch said:

single basic Lex.

This (also single basic Bronco, single Bolto, etc) is the thing that really grinds my gears.

It's, like...

I had one of these.

It probably wasn't good back in 2013, and it certainly isn't good now.

I mastered it for Mastery XP, then smashed it for credits or used it as a crafting material, and I am not going to build/buy another one (unless it shows up in a crafting recipe for something else... which will, itself, probably end up just being fodder).

 

[Arbalest2]

12 hours ago, (XBOX)KayAitch said:

I think DE have said somewhere that they prioritise weapons you don't have - I think that prioritisation is where the maths is broken, it probably works if you're MR12 and there's lots of weapons you've never seen. I'm L3 and it picks MR fodder and then gives me the same MR fodder day after day.

The gimmick is to sell weapons, slots, forma, and potatoes. It focuses on weapons players haven't used much "yet", or ones they tossed to annoy them enough to buy them or farm and upgrade them with potatoes and forma. 

It doesn't care about the player experience or the fact that once they do spend and upgrade they will just be hit with other terrible weapons no one wants to use instead of the ones they just got.

Who would use a single Bronco or viper? These shouldn't even be in the random pool. It's garbage. 

If it was about the player, SP Duviri would only include weapons you've forma'd. 

 

Edited June 7 by Arbalest2

[(XBOX)KayAitch]

39 minutes ago, Arbalest2 said:

Who would use a single Bronco or viper? These shouldn't even be in the random pool. It's garbage. 

I got the Incarnon for the single Bronco, so I built it, potatoed it, put the Incarnon on it and it still isn't good (if you like the ricochet effect the Dual Toxocyst does the same thing 100x better) but it is Steel Path viable.

Not seen it since. Almost every time before, but not since.

I've argued on here for algorithms that account for MR, levelled state, etc, but honestly I'd settle for just more random - I'm quite happy for the single Bronco to be in that pool with the same chance as everything else.

Which means I'd see it (and the Viper, Stug, Magnus, Kohmak, etc) about the same frequency - roughly once every 125-175 runs.

It's why I get the same few weapons over and over and over and over again that baffles me.

Just make your supposedly random mode like, actually random.

[sunderthefirmament]

23 hours ago, (XBOX)KayAitch said:

I don't have any of these dupe weapons.

And that’s the reason they keep showing up. The “randomizer” prioritizes unowned gear. It’s guaranteed to give you an unowned weapon for each category unless you hit a certain threshold and you own almost everything. 
 

Check the original Duviri patch notes. They give the exact number for unowned frames, but they only said the unowned weapons use a similar system. So we don’t know the exact threshold. 
 

Edit: Apologies if you were already aware of this. I agree that the weighting of unowned gear is a silly system and likely having unintended results for players that have almost everything. It is stupid that we have to go back and build up single versions of dual secondaries and such. 

Edited June 7 by sunderthefirmament

[(XBOX)KayAitch]

50 minutes ago, sunderthefirmament said:

On 2023-06-06 at 10:47 PM, (XBOX)KayAitch said:

I don't have any of these dupe weapons.

And that’s the reason they keep showing up. The “randomizer” prioritizes unowned gear. It’s guaranteed to give you an unowned weapon for each category unless you hit a certain threshold and you own almost everything

That's what is clearly broken. I'm L3, I've levelled just about everything, but there are well over 100 weapons I don't have.

I still shouldn't get the Talons 3 times in 8 rolls.

15 hours ago, (XBOX)KayAitch said:

But, I don't own about 100-150 weapons, why has it fixed on, say, the useless Furis over any of the others?

I think DE have said somewhere that they prioritise weapons you don't have - I think that prioritisation is where the maths is broken, it probably works if you're MR12 and there's lots of weapons you've never seen. I'm L3 and it picks MR fodder and then gives me the same MR fodder day after day.

I think it fixes on on weapons and gets stuck on them. The fixations change slowly, and might even depend on the week. Some weeks I get the Stug every time, others the single Lex. This week the Talon is on top.

And why is it so much worse for secondaries than primaries?

[Grommile]

1 hour ago, (XBOX)KayAitch said:

And why is it so much worse for secondaries than primaries?

The weapon selection system treats akimbo pistols count as a separate thing, not a "stronger variant" of their base weapon, and many of them use their base weapon as a crafting ingredient, so even a lot of completionists have a list of single pistols in the "unowned" pool as a result of crafting the akimbo versions.

I think the people suggesting that "unowned" should be replaced with "unmastered" have a very good proposal.

[(NSW)warfare3376]

13 minutes ago, Grommile said:

I think the people suggesting that "unowned" should be replaced with "unmastered" have a very good proposal.

It just should not prioritize anything at all and just be 100% random. Its counterintuitive to have any gear be prioritized over others, it defeats the whole point of the randomized aspect of it. Its also a bit ridiculous to essentially force players to master every single item, granted less ridiculous than forcing to own every item, just to have a truly randomized experience when it should naturally just be that way in the 1st place especially considering circuit is just a one of mode that is very unrewarding aside from the incarnon adapters.

[-AncientWarrior-]

34 minutes ago, (NSW)warfare3376 said:

It just should not prioritize anything at all and just be 100% random.

Yes thats true, unfortunately DE is trying to get money, money, money.. formas, potatoe, etc etc.. what better way to do it than what they have done.. player experience doesnt even come in to the equation because these days DE dont give a rats rrrrs about player experience, only money.  Just look at what they release as an update, untested broken mode full of game stopping bugs .. 

[(XBOX)KayAitch]

12 hours ago, (XBOX)KayAitch said:

On 2023-06-06 at 10:47 PM, (XBOX)KayAitch said:

Run 1: Sonicor, Talon, single Bolto

Run 2: Dual Cestra, single Kohmak, Talon

Run 3: carried by Tenet Spirex, but rest was Harpak, Mutalist Cernos, Veldt, Heat Dagger, Dual Raza and Ether Reaper.

Run 4: Catabolist, Zylok, Talon

Run 5: single Furis, Tysis

Run 6: single Bolto, Sonicor and Ether Reaper

Run 7: single Furis, single Bolto, single Kohmak

Run 8: single Cestra, single Viper Wraith, Stug

Expand  

Run 9: frame is Titania (so it doesn't matter) but Kohmak (3rd time), Stug (2nd time), single basic Lex.

Run 10: Furis (3rd), Zymos, Stug (3rd) but I have a really good Zymos build.

6 hours ago, Grommile said:

I think the people suggesting that "unowned" should be replaced with "unmastered" have a very good proposal

I know, I made it...

 

 

[(XBOX)KayAitch]

5 hours ago, -AncientWarrior- said:

Yes thats true, unfortunately DE is trying to get money, money, money.. formas, potatoe, etc etc.. what better way to do it than what they have done.. player experience doesnt even come in to the equation because these days DE dont give a rats rrrrs about player experience, only money

I don't think this is the case. Yeah, they want money, the game is free and they have bills to pay like anyone else. However, while the game has swung occasionally towards the more predatory pricing, they've consistently pulled it back.

They have an asset: loads of frames and weapons. They have a roguelike mode that can capitalise on that asset. Them having a shop feature that pushed players to buy the weapons they have fun with in the cave is a great idea.

But it's actually broken - buying anything in that shop actually means you never see it in the cave again. They massively screwed up the direct monetisation.

The indirect idea (where you need all the potatoed weapons in all the slots with all the forma to stop getting rubbish rolls) doesn't work - it's insane amounts of plat, but also gamer time. Circuit is the new time sink they want players in, not grind levelling every single weapon in the game again.

The RNG gets worse the more guns you have. I suspect if I had every single weapon except the Stug I'd get it (with a useless default build) every time. If I had every weapon the game would probably just crash (but I'd be interested to hear from anyone who tried)

Edited June 8 by (XBOX)KayAitch

[Althaline]

1 hour ago, (XBOX)KayAitch said:

If I had every weapon the game would probably just crash (but I'd be interested to hear from anyone who tried)

My clanmate has every secondary, and the system seems to work great there. Unfortunately for the slightly less obsessive among us, the moment you have 1 unowned weapon it is immediately guaranteed in every run.

[(XBOX)KayAitch]

2 hours ago, Althaline said:

Unfortunately for the slightly less obsessive among us, the moment you have 1 unowned weapon it is immediately guaranteed in every run

Can we all agree that objectively sucks?

The point of MR is that gotta catch them all Pokémon thing, but in Teshin's Cave the closer you get to all weapons the worse your choice becomes.

You either want a few weapons, or every single weapon (no exceptions), and anything in-between you get punished.

[HunterDigi]

20 hours ago, Grommile said:

This (also single basic Bronco, single Bolto, etc) is the thing that really grinds my gears.
It's, like...
I had one of these.
It probably wasn't good back in 2013, and it certainly isn't good now.

Don't forget they added incarnon for single furis and single bronco so those weapons actually are viable now.

The trap however is if you don't incarnon the "highest quality" one it will still not be given to you in circuit xD

If there's a prime, it always gives you the prime even if you incarnon'd a wraith.

 

Edit:
Also I agree with the topic, it doesn't seem like it's random enough.

Twice now I got mesa and furis (which I have incarnon on), and another time mesa and braton prime (which also has incarnon), those were basically wasted because mesa comes with guns included =)

There's also some frames that are extremely rarely given, I haven't had a chance to try lavos for example. And I do have all the frames in inventory (except non-primes for ones that have primes, helminth ate'em).

Edited June 8 by HunterDigi

[(XBOX)KayAitch]

23 minutes ago, HunterDigi said:

Don't forget they added incarnon for single furis and single bronco so those weapons actually are viable now.

The trap however is if you don't incarnon the "highest quality" one it will still not be given to you in circuit xD

No, the trap is that if you don't have them and you build them, then they'll stop appearing in the cave.

I've got a viable Bronco Incarnon now, it's not come up since I built it.

[hyzmarca]

On 2023-06-06 at 5:47 PM, (XBOX)KayAitch said:

I don't have any of these dupe weapons. I have a lot of other weapons, but there are still over 100 I don't have (most of which I've never seen in the cave).
 

This is why.  Duviri's randomizer will try to give you a mix of weapons you own and weapons you don't.  And it goes by families, just like rivens do.   And will prefer prime/tennet/kuva variants if you own them. If you don't own any weapons in a family it will give you the base version  

Akimbo pistols are different families from their single counterparts. 

 

If you own a handfull of good weapons and nothing else,  you're basically guarenteed to get one of those most of the time. 

If you don't own a hanffull of bad weapons but have everything else,  you're basically guarenteed to get one of those most of the time

Because the RNG is balanced to some you own and some you don't.  

The trick,  then,  is to just build all these crap weapons so they won't be weighted as heavily.  

 

I went back,  built every variantless early game weapon I didn't have,  and the RNG has been much more consistent in giving me good things. 

[Althaline]

3 hours ago, hyzmarca said:

Duviri's randomizer will try to give you a mix of weapons you own and weapons you don't.

No, the randomizer will try to give you things you don't own. It makes no promises about things you own. I've had sessions where I wasn't offered anything I owned in multiple categories (never frames, but I own too many for that).

[(XBOX)KayAitch]

8 hours ago, hyzmarca said:

This is why.  Duviri's randomizer will try to give you a mix of weapons you own and weapons you don't

Nope. It prioritises weapons you don't currently own. DE were explicit about that in the release notes.

I've had all not-owned a couple of times.

8 hours ago, hyzmarca said:

If you own a handfull of good weapons and nothing else,  you're basically guarenteed to get one of those most of the time

Nope. I have hundreds of weapons and 30-50 good ones. They rarely come up.

8 hours ago, hyzmarca said:

If you don't own a hanffull of bad weapons but have everything else,  you're basically guarenteed to get one of those most of the time

If you had read my original post you'd know that I'm not missing "a hanffull" (handfull?) I'm missing well over a hundred.

I don't mind getting one of those hundred, that is not what this post is about.

I do mind that the choices are somehow always the same. As you can see above in my original post, I get the same weapons over and over, despite not owning lots of others that don't appear.

Why do I get the Bolto (which has no variants, the 3 Akboltos all count as a different 'family') in 40% of runs when it is less than 1% of the weapons I don't own?

8 hours ago, hyzmarca said:

And it goes by families, just like rivens do.   And will prefer prime/tennet/kuva variants if you own them. If you don't own any weapons in a family it will give you the base version

I don't need this explaining to me, it's not what I was asking about.