Player to player messages/Auction House

[TennoPain]

As much as i would love to see what comes of it (i like it as it is now) I dont think it will be done 

It could change market a LOT and to test it would take tons of players 

That being said I dont like the idea much but people should be able to get more PLAT atp some people have near milion plat and its not normal IMO so perhaps just a single mail item per day could be interesting to test but I am not sure its a priority ATP 

[SneakyErvin]

On 2024-06-06 at 6:23 PM, PublikDomain said:

And 1 in 3 is a lot, lol. Here it is visually based off Borris' most recent platform estimates with this supposed "large part of the PC population" included:

You think 1/3 is a lot while at the same time you dont seem to think near 50% of the WF PC playerbase coming from outside of Steam is a large part of the PC population?

And the 1/3 is small, which is also why it works in WF that has only 1 community and mostly common items.

[PublikDomain]

29 minutes ago, SneakyErvin said:

You think 1/3 is a lot while at the same time you dont seem to think near 50% of the WF PC playerbase coming from outside of Steam is a large part of the PC population?

No, I think the idea that "50% of the WF PC playerbase coming from outside of Steam" is unsubstantiated nonsense. But even if there were a phantom 35k or so extra CCU coming from nowhere that none of you can prove, the amount of people using warframe.market would still be huge anyways.

34 minutes ago, SneakyErvin said:

And the 1/3 is small, which is also why it works in WF that has only 1 community and mostly common items.

I really have no idea what you're trying to say here.

[SneakyErvin]

21 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

No, I think the idea that "50% of the WF PC playerbase coming from outside of Steam" is unsubstantiated nonsense. But even if there were a phantom 35k or so extra CCU coming from nowhere that none of you can prove, the amount of people using warframe.market would still be huge anyways.

It isnt really unsubstantiated. The split tends to be near 50/50 for games that are available across standalone and steam. PoE went through the same thing, and the Steam numbers for the game didnt catch up until after roughly 5 years. And in 2018 WF had uhm 52 million total users, 18-19 million of which were registered on Steam.

21 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

I really have no idea what you're trying to say here.

Then you still have a hard time to grasp what differentiates WF economy from other games. And why automated systems would be a horrible idea.

[PublikDomain]

5 hours ago, SneakyErvin said:

It isnt really unsubstantiated. The split tends to be near 50/50 for games that are available across standalone and steam. PoE went through the same thing, and the Steam numbers for the game didnt catch up until after roughly 5 years. And in 2018 WF had uhm 52 million total users, 18-19 million of which were registered on Steam.

Please provide a source to substantiate your claims. For example, Leyou's yearly reports said that Warframe only had 48 million total users in 2018 - not the 52 million you're claiming here.

And again - even if what you claimed were true warframe.market would still have a larger CCU than your supposed phantom PC CCU.

5 hours ago, SneakyErvin said:

And why automated systems would be a horrible idea.

I'm still not suggesting an automated system but ok.

[Hyroncore]

On 2024-06-01 at 9:23 PM, SneakyErvin said:

No. You just dont understand the point. If you have another game where the total population is the same as WF but runs on several servers, you are looking at only a part of the community per each individual economy (each server has its own economy). In WF everyone is the same economy (aside from switch). That a percentage of the whole community would engage in trading doesnt matter, since it is a percentage out of the total, not a percentage out of a part of the total.

You also seem to still fail the concept of what an AH does with your D3 example. No, obviously no one was standing around trading, because they had access to an AH that handled it for them from the point they handed over the things to said AH. For instance, if I knew I had things to do I would spend a few minutes to load things up on the AH, do my things and then come back home to an AH filled with earnings to collect. A main difference aswell between D3 and WF was that D3 didnt have a majority of common items, so competition within trading was still possible, because the game relied heavily on RNG stat combinations and stat ranges.

Heh "Everything else", you mean that one thing of making the things you wanna trade visible. My objection comes from the simple fact that warframe.market isnt an AH since it doesnt fullfil anything you'd expect from an AH. They do no literally hold auctions, players personally hold "auctions", not the market. There is nothing that is automated except for it showing your add. It is like the board in the store, where your kuva nukor listing (even with its bid demand) is just a personal add from someone wanting to sell something privately.

Your answer to Sierra also shows how lacking your experience is with these systems. You go to lengths to describe a system and call it an AH when the system you describe already exsists in gaming and have done so for many many years and have their own defining names. What you describe is not an AH, you describe what would be called a trade broker/manager/agent. And you also manage to include horrible flaws as ideas. Like hostage taking of currency due to how your trade works, and with opportunities to cheat prices due to it all coming down to the player deciding which bid he wants to accept. Including the option to add more to a bid than the "buyout" in this case would demand. Which in itself goes straight against how an AH works.

No quite clearly it isnt, since it doesnt work like an auctioneer or auction house. It does not sell things for you, it helps you manage an add or buy order to help you in your trading, nothing more.

One exmaple of a game that would be best used to compare AH v no AH is Guild Wars 2. The game has servers but they exist primarily for IRL Regions and ingame realm versus realm in the 3 way map system the game has. That said the AH is unified across the entire playerbase in a given region. So I can see millions of listings. Granted the resource system is far different as almost every material outside of key legendary and epic crafting components is tradeable. When the game first launched Arenanet the dev had to hire a team a literal team of economists to focus on ensuring the game econ didnt suffer. It was insane. That game also has a comparable currency to Plat in Gems BUT key difference is you can use gems to buy other players gold. On a delayed updated trade system. So I put in a bit for 3k gold for 200gems. That then raises the cost over time as other players make that same bid.

That said I tired of this "GIVE ME EASY TRADE SYSTEMS SO I CAN RIP OTHERS OFF" There are enough scammy actors in the ingame trade who ignore you for "Lowballing them" when you ask what their riven or set is selling for because they jam all those links in with no prices and they demand YOU make the offer and get pissy when it isnt what they wanted. That or the guys who try and scum off my time relic cracking saying 100 ducat parts are worth less then 5p each >_>. I would support a system that didnt take plat to use though dont get me wrong as I am tired of trying to trade augments for augments and copping a barrage of "20p" when I clearly state I am TRADING My New Loka/Perrin Augments for your X.

[Hyroncore]

On 2024-06-10 at 5:08 AM, PublikDomain said:

Please provide a source to substantiate your claims. For example, Leyou's yearly reports said that Warframe only had 48 million total users in 2018 - not the 52 million you're claiming here.

And again - even if what you claimed were true warframe.market would still have a larger CCU than your supposed phantom PC CCU.

I'm still not suggesting an automated system but ok.

You first, All I have seen this entire thread is you "give me proof" and refusing to share links to yours. Sorry but this just created a distinct lack of interest until you can provide links and uh "Not suggesting an automated system" is EXACTLY what an AH in a game is dude. Either you are blindingly ignorant of that fact or splitting hairs. Again neither interests me.

[SneakyErvin]

On 2024-06-09 at 9:08 PM, PublikDomain said:

Please provide a source to substantiate your claims. For example, Leyou's yearly reports said that Warframe only had 48 million total users in 2018 - not the 52 million you're claiming here.

And again - even if what you claimed were true warframe.market would still have a larger CCU than your supposed phantom PC CCU.

I'm still not suggesting an automated system but ok.

Sorry didnt see this until now.

48 or 52, not really a big difference since it still means that total registered users on STEAM was only 18m out of those. And parts of those 18m registered on Steam are double dippers in order to access Tennogen, so even a smaller part active through Steam out of those 48m. And those 18m (or 18-19m) come from a leak post on Reddit for 2018, which sums it up to 18.5 million.

Google it on your own if you think I'm lying.

[PublikDomain]

6 hours ago, Hyroncore said:

uh "Not suggesting an automated system" is EXACTLY what an AH in a game is dude.

From page 1:

On 2024-05-17 at 7:21 PM, PublikDomain said:

The ingame trading experience being brought up to parity with what warframe.market already offers would be an excellent QoL improvement without any risk of the doom and gloom (👆) doomers like to doompost about.

Bringing ingame trade up to parity with warframe.market. Which is not an automated system.

I then elaborated here with an example of how Maroo's Bazaar could be improved to make it more like warframe.market without making it completely automated. Now if it makes you platinum big-mad >:((( that I'm calling "a place where you can auction items" not an auction house, well...

On 2024-06-05 at 11:06 AM, PublikDomain said:

I want exactly what I've said I want. You guys are the ones whining about how this isn't actually an auction house. I don't care what you want to call it or even understand why any of you think what it's called means anything. I want improved ingame trade. Call that whatever you want.

🤷‍♀️

6 hours ago, Hyroncore said:

All I have seen this entire thread is you "give me proof" and refusing to share links to yours.

I have been.

On 2024-05-23 at 7:35 AM, PublikDomain said:

People already use warframe.market to do all the things you're so scared of, and the ingame economy is fine. Prices for frames are stable and there has been no race to 1p despite the market being the primary origin of player-to-player trade.

Where's the race to the bottom? How does this factor into your math equation? Maybe your math equation should be adjusted to face reality... 🙄

On 2024-05-28 at 7:56 AM, PublikDomain said:

Estimates can be made about console populations using the data from the yearly usage stats, like here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Warframe/comments/10my1kh/2022_platform_playtime_distribution/

It puts consoles as a combined ~30-35% of the total CCU. So if Steam is 45k right now, consoles combined should bring that up to about 60k *if you're being generous.

warframe.market has 29k using their site right now. That's half! 20k is a slow day. I recall it being about 37k at one point the other week.

On 2024-06-05 at 11:06 AM, PublikDomain said:

And yet prices are stable?

Wolf Sledge:

Nova Prime:

Mesa Prime:

Etc.

Nice, flat, stable prices. Race to the bottom? Nope. Continuous crash? Nope. Doom? Nope. Gloom? Nope.

Instead, the reason "prices have dropped" is because DE themselves are messing with the supply. Consider Melee Duplicate:

Now what possibly could have happened March 25th through April 7th? Did DE implement a new search bar? Nope. Did more people suddenly start trading? Nope. What happened? DE shared news of new drop sources and drop rates and the market shifted for the upcoming new supply. It's not warframe.market's fault that prices dropped, it's DE's!

On 2024-06-05 at 11:06 AM, PublikDomain said:

lol

[PublikDomain]

4 hours ago, SneakyErvin said:

Sorry didnt see this until now.

48 or 52, not really a big difference since it still means that total registered users on STEAM was only 18m out of those. And parts of those 18m registered on Steam are double dippers in order to access Tennogen, so even a smaller part active through Steam out of those 48m. And those 18m (or 18-19m) come from a leak post on Reddit for 2018, which sums it up to 18.5 million.

Google it on your own if you think I'm lying.

So provide your links. Here's Leyou's btw:

http://northeurope.blob.euroland.com/press-releases-attachments/1208358/HKEX-EPS_20200417_9238676-0.PDF

Page 11:

And I googled it on my own, and what I found was a 2018 Ars Technica article about a Steam leak showing Warframe's 2018 Steam at only 16m, not the 18m you're claiming. The article also makes it clear that these numbers are an extrapolation of other data, not a direct count. It's also based on achievements data, which IIRC you've taken issue with me using in the past.

Quote

It's not exactly clear how Valve defines this "Achievement denominator," which approaches but doesn't precisely match up with the "players" statistics provided to individual developers. The new data also gives no indication of how many people own the game without having played it.

4 hours ago, SneakyErvin said:

And parts of those 18m registered on Steam are double dippers in order to access Tennogen, so even a smaller part active through Steam out of those 48m.

And "registered accounts" only shows "registered accounts", not "actual people". Bots, alts, accounts on different platforms, they all add up to the total number of accounts. I have two accounts myself. Trying to convert from total registered accounts to actual player populations is always going to be an estimation at best.

[(XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA]

16 hours ago, Hyroncore said:

You first, All I have seen this entire thread is you "give me proof" and refusing to share links to yours. Sorry but this just created a distinct lack of interest until you can provide links and uh "Not suggesting an automated system" is EXACTLY what an AH in a game is dude. Either you are blindingly ignorant of that fact or splitting hairs. Again neither interests me.

You're welcome to go back and read the exhanges between me and him if you have about three hours to spare.

Apparently, he *isnt* calling for an "auction house" system nor automated trading but for some reason wants to advocate for his special ideas in this thread. 

 

His special ideas which are terrible for other reasons. 

Namely, he thinks there needs to be a list/sort by price interface ala warframe market built into the game itself. 

And doesn't understand the consequences of what hes asking for.

[SpicyDinosaur]

On 2024-05-18 at 5:21 AM, Chewarette said:

That's unpractical as #*!%.

- List stuff

- Manually change your availability status

- Wait for people to /w you

- Ok cool, go to dojo [loading screen]

- Invite dude

- Dude goes through loading screen

- Go to trading post (keep in mind some dojos don't have the trading post right away so the guy needs to tell you where to go)

- Do the trade

- Go the Warframe.Market to indicate the thing is sold

Repeat 30 times per day. If you wanna be efficient, you can't even play the game while doing all that. Awesome experience.

It's called Alecaframe.

[PublikDomain]

1 hour ago, (XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA said:

And doesn't understand the consequences of what hes asking for.

Nah, I just understand these so-called "consequences" are greatly overstated. At best they're from people simply too scared to acknowledge what we already have, and at worst from people who "like the profiteering".

1 hour ago, (XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA said:

Apparently, he *isnt* calling for an "auction house" system nor automated trading

Yes, how many times do I have to say that? There's more than one way to implement an auction house/trading house/trade board/bazaar/whatever the heck you pedants want to call "the place where the auctions happen". Y'all getting so pissy at vocabulary shows just how little you actually have to stand on.

[(XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA]

3 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

Nah, I just understand these so-called "consequences" are greatly overstated. At best they're from people simply too scared to acknowledge what we already have, and at worst from people who "like the profiteering".

Yes, how many times do I have to say that? There's more than one way to implement an auction house/trading house/trade board/bazaar/whatever the heck you pedants want to call "the place where the auctions happen". Y'all getting so pissy at vocabulary shows just how little you actually have to stand on.

Whats funny about this is you simultaneously imply that having it your way would "end profiteering", but also wanna argue that what youre asking for wouldn't change that much. 

And wait a minute now, "the place where the auctions happen"? I thought you werent asking for an auction house but something different? 

If its "the place where the auctions happen" how is that not an auction house?

Maybe it's an auction condo? Or auction tent? Or auction *building*?

Oh sorry, silly me getting wrapped up in semantics which is totally different from what youre doing.

[Hyroncore]

3 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

Nah, I just understand these so-called "consequences" are greatly overstated. At best they're from people simply too scared to acknowledge what we already have, and at worst from people who "like the profiteering".

Yes, how many times do I have to say that? There's more than one way to implement an auction house/trading house/trade board/bazaar/whatever the heck you pedants want to call "the place where the auctions happen". Y'all getting so pissy at vocabulary shows just how little you actually have to stand on.

Calling people names and acting like only you could have a viable solution while claiming we are ignorant just reeks of someone chasing an argument. Seeing your responses to other threads recently seems to support that idea. You won't make someone change their view by acting so incredibly bratty. You are one person. People have offered logical reasons and all you do is snark and name call. Just stop.

[Hyroncore]

6 hours ago, (XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA said:

You're welcome to go back and read the exhanges between me and him if you have about three hours to spare.

Apparently, he *isnt* calling for an "auction house" system nor automated trading but for some reason wants to advocate for his special ideas in this thread. 

 

His special ideas which are terrible for other reasons. 

Namely, he thinks there needs to be a list/sort by price interface ala warframe market built into the game itself. 

And doesn't understand the consequences of what hes asking for.

I refuse from engaging with him directly the moment I see someone using the term pedant incorrectly. The guy jabs at us and isn't bringing anything valuable. Aside from the obvious reasons you myself and others already stated there is one big aspect the guy misses. 

Warframe is already a bunch of systems that are iterations and disjointed. Not to mention the work to make the UI and all the background code and systems to support even the barest of trade systems would take far too much from the game. This guy appears to be the sort to argue over massive implementations like this idea YET when they do it and it goes wrong or means no other content is pushed to the playerbase during the implementation they cry foul. Tabula Rasa was an MMO back when WoW first launched had no AH/Mail. It was an oversight the devs tried to resolve but in doing so they killed the game because it delayed other issues like hotfixing etc. Granted DE is far larger now then back at that point but the implementation of an integrated trade system isnt just a simple click and add.

That said what would be good is a proper implementation of the warframe.market system. Path of Exile had a similar site called poe-trade.com When GGG deployed their trade site it was better designed and secure along with proper integration into the game without adding anything IN the game. They added filters and means to remove people who consistently listed at obviously bad prices (The 5p for Primed Flow buy offers I see once in a while for example). 

This would be a far more feasible and likely scenario and would be something I support for more reasons than I can put into this thread now.

Edited June 18 by Hyroncore

[SneakyErvin]

21 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

So provide your links. Here's Leyou's btw:

http://northeurope.blob.euroland.com/press-releases-attachments/1208358/HKEX-EPS_20200417_9238676-0.PDF

Page 11:

And I googled it on my own, and what I found was a 2018 Ars Technica article about a Steam leak showing Warframe's 2018 Steam at only 16m, not the 18m you're claiming. The article also makes it clear that these numbers are an extrapolation of other data, not a direct count. It's also based on achievements data, which IIRC you've taken issue with me using in the past.

And "registered accounts" only shows "registered accounts", not "actual people". Bots, alts, accounts on different platforms, they all add up to the total number of accounts. I have two accounts myself. Trying to convert from total registered accounts to actual player populations is always going to be an estimation at best.

The 18.5m claim is in that very thread, but I forgot that it was the OP that had looked at the wrong game in the list (forgive me for not keeping things like that in memory for half a decade+). So yes 16.5m is the number, which doesnt really change much, besides meaning that even less out of the PC players play(ed) through Steam (since total registered player on Steam just lost 12% going from 18.5 to 16.5m). And yes, achievment data can be problematic, but they also go through it in the article.

It isnt just the old "new game mode only has X% of total players doing it cos achievments say so" where people dont realize total =/= active etc. Here in this article the data was used by inputting it in a system that already handles Steam numbers for games and the activity etc. With a very small margin of error due to available decimals on the achievment stats.

My point is still that a large portion of the PC playerbase is not included when people throw around Steam numbers. Which you have just helped me prove more and more.

Edited June 18 by SneakyErvin

[PublikDomain]

9 hours ago, (XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA said:

Whats funny about this is you simultaneously imply that having it your way would "end profiteering", but also wanna argue that what youre asking for wouldn't change that much. 

Remember that this profiteering is based on taking advantage of people who don't know what things are worth. IE ripping off newbies and the uninformed. "But less people would get ripped off that would change!" Good. That part should change. That's half the reason to improve trade in the first place!

Will prices change? Well, why should they when they haven't so far? The last time there was a big AH thread warframe.market averaged something like 15-18k CCU. Now its traffic is double. It's early Tuesday morning and there are ~31k people trading there. That's insane! Meanwhile there are only 42k people playing the game on Steam as an entire platform. Trade originating from the use of these kinds of improved trade tools is already massive. And despite the widespread adoption and rapid growth of these kinds of trade tools (and others like AlecaFrame which Spicy points out), it can be plainly seen that prices will stabilize and not enter free-fall as is commonly suggested.

Instead, the biggest factors causing the kinds of large market movements you're concerned about have been, are now, and will always be DE's own actions. For example with Saryn Prime, who was stable at ~100p for the last three months:

What's caused her stable price to start falling this last week? DE announcing that they're giving her away for free in a month. There is a change, doom! No, just the market moving as it always has.

9 hours ago, (XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA said:

If its "the place where the auctions happen" how is that not an auction house?

I mean yeah, that's what I'm saying. Go talk to Sneaky about this, whatever word y'all want to use I do not care.

9 hours ago, Hyroncore said:

People have offered logical reasons and all you do is snark and name call.

A little ironic, but here. No snark, no namecalling, not even a little bit. Just for you.

The "logical reasons" typically given are not logical. They are based on fear and presumption at best (I don't want things to change because I am concerned something bad will happen), and protectionism at worst (I don't want things to change because I want to protect my individual interests). The latter is exactly what it sounds like it is, but the former can be disproved using simple logical counterarguments, historical examples, and widely-available public data.

For example, one common "logical reason" given for not improving ingame trade is "if there are more people trading the economy will crash". An increase in supply leading to a drop in prices makes sense on the surface, yes! But this ignores the increase in demand that would happen at the same time, because if more total people are entering the market then logically there will be more sellers and more buyers. The counter-argument that "buyers only buy a set once" downplays the fact that this is already the case with all trade anyways and always has been, that more things are traded than just item sets, and the existence of mechanics like Baro that are designed for the express purpose of consuming excess supply. The idea of more people leading to a market crash also ignores the game's history, where past improvements to trade did not crash the economy. We now have tools like warframe.market and AlecaFrame which greatly improve trade both in game and out, yet the economy has not crashed. We even have public data from places like warframe.market showing its massive growth and userbase (rivaling the populations of entire platforms) yet with no economic crash. To the contrary, prices are actually quite stable over time! The large market movements these statements are concerned about have other simple explanations, like above with Saryn Prime's recent price drop in the last week caused by DE announcing that she would be given out for free during TennoCon.

The logical response to a concern is to look at examples, collect and review data, construct rational arguments, and evaluate counter-arguments. As I have done.

As for the other two, well, I've interacted with them in the past and know about where they stand. Sneaky for example is often more concerned with dictionary definitions and little details than with the actual intent and meaning. For example, arguing about what an "auction house" actually is instead of reading the intent of "make trade easier" and then getting stuck on "well that one has an AI auctioneer!" or whatever. Whether it's what makes a game a "looter", or what makes something an "auction house", or any of the other times I've argued with him over stupid little details that don't matter (google "pedant"), it's generally the same pattern and it's rather tiring and unproductive.

8 hours ago, Hyroncore said:

That said what would be good is a proper implementation of the warframe.market system.

My guy.

On 2024-05-17 at 7:21 PM, PublikDomain said:

The ingame trading experience being brought up to parity with what warframe.market already offers would be an excellent QoL improvement without any risk of the doom and gloom (👆) doomers like to doompost about.

On 2024-05-20 at 7:27 AM, PublikDomain said:

It doesn't need fully automated offline trades either, and that wouldn't even be the parity I was describing.

On 2024-05-22 at 7:35 AM, PublikDomain said:

1. There are more ways to make an "auction house" than whatever one version you're thinking of. For example, expanding the Bazaar to meet parity with warframe.market's existing features, just ingame and tied to existing limitations like daily trades.

On 2024-05-25 at 8:25 AM, PublikDomain said:

Bringing ingame trade up to date with features on the level of warframe.market would be more than enough to meet the general desire for better ingame trade without the larger risks of a system with features like instant buyouts or instant delivery. We don't need whatever hyper-specific concept you have of what an "auction house" is from whatever other game, we can have our own version that works for us here.

On 2024-05-31 at 10:15 AM, PublikDomain said:

Which you say because you're still stuck with this false belief that I'm talking about the same "actual" auction house you guys keep alluding to, even though I've told you explicitly over and over again that I'm not. A different system than the one you guys have such a fearful hate-boner for can serve as this game's version of an auction house.

On 2024-06-17 at 7:34 AM, PublikDomain said:

Bringing ingame trade up to parity with warframe.market. Which is not an automated system.

I then elaborated here with an example of how Maroo's Bazaar could be improved to make it more like warframe.market without making it completely automated.

The last one being a reply directly to you!

---

3 hours ago, SneakyErvin said:

where people dont realize total =/= active etc.

Which is why total registered accounts doesn't matter when talking about CCU. As I've been saying. But fine, you win, there are definitely a large uncounted PC CCU even though total =/= active. warframe.maket's userbase would still be larger than that supposed group.

Edited June 18 by PublikDomain

[SneakyErvin]

5 minutes ago, PublikDomain said:

Which is why total registered accounts doesn't matter when talking about CCU. As I've been saying.

But it does, since it shows the spread. And there are always trends and norms that you can then rely on to get estimations for how the active playerbase is spread. There is zero reason to think that a player accessing it through Steam is more likely to stay than one playing it through SA. So if the total spread shows a ratio between SA and Steam, that ratio can be assumed for active players aswell, since a trend for PC players overall exsists and means X% out of the total still plays after Y time the game has exsisted.

So if the retention trend would be say 10% out of the PC players then you'd have 10% out of Steam's total and 10% out of the SA total as an estimate. If we were to look at different cultures, such as console vs PC or west versus east it would be different. But we are comparing PC players to PC players overall, just with two different launch options, but still with the same trending behavior of how they approach (live service) games.

[PublikDomain]

1 hour ago, SneakyErvin said:

But it does, since it shows the spread. And there are always trends and norms that you can then rely on to get estimations for how the active playerbase is spread.

Ok, let's. Borris gives a 2020 estimate of 65% PC/35% consoles. This is the earliest year we have available since its based on the Year In Review data which only started in 2020, but it's a pretty stable split over time so there's no reason to think it'd change much. PC players outnumber Console players about 2:1. The Ars Technica article suggests Warframe had 16.5M Steam players on PC in 2018. The Leyou statement gives a total registered account population of 48.5M in 2018. So that'd be 31.5M PC accounts, and 16.5M Steam accounts. So we can say that in 2018 about 52% of total PC accounts were associated with Steam and the remaining 48% of total PC accounts were not.

If it's a 52/48 split of Steam to non-Steam PC players then with the most recent platform split estimates the current population as of the last 40 minutes would look like:

• 48k PC Steam
• 44k PC non-Steam
• 27k warframe.market
• 14k PS
• 11k XB
• 4k NSW
• An unknown amount of MOB

So the market's CCU would be about the same size as all console CCUs combined. That's a lot of people.

For reference, the graph I shared earlier was a 53/47 PC split. Maybe the "one in three" you pulled from nowhere was accurate after all!

So as I said that's still a lot of people. The idea that warframe.market is small is ludicrous no matter how you try and count CCUs.

Edited June 18 by PublikDomain

[(XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA]

8 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

Ok, let's. Borris gives a 2020 estimate of 65% PC/35% consoles. This is the earliest year we have available since its based on the Year In Review data which only started in 2020, but it's a pretty stable split over time so there's no reason to think it'd change much. PC players outnumber Console players about 2:1. The Ars Technica article suggests Warframe had 16.5M Steam players on PC in 2018. The Leyou statement gives a total registered account population of 48.5M in 2018. So that'd be 31.5M PC accounts, and 16.5M Steam accounts. So we can say that in 2018 about 52% of total PC accounts were associated with Steam and the remaining 48% of total PC accounts were not.

If it's a 52/48 split of Steam to non-Steam PC players then with the most recent platform split estimates the current population as of the last 40 minutes would look like:

• 48k PC Steam
• 44k PC non-Steam
• 27k warframe.market
• 14k PS
• 11k XB
• 4k NSW
• An unknown amount of MOB

So the market's CCU would be about the same size as all console CCUs combined. That's a lot of people.

For reference, the graph I shared earlier was a 53/47 PC split. Maybe the "one in three" you pulled from nowhere was accurate after all!

So as I said that's still a lot of people. The idea that warframe.market is small is ludicrous no matter how you try and count CCUs.

This chart illustrates the points I was trying to make earlier lol. 

>not everyone uses wf market. 

>even if they did, you still have to come online and in game to make a sale. 

>wf market existing doesnt automatically justify radical changes to the trading system with things such as auction house, offline trading, wf market into game integration etc. 

>wf market existing doesnt mean nothing would change if it wasnt crammed into the base game for the entire playerbase. 

 

[(XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA]

10 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

Remember that this profiteering is based on taking advantage of people who don't know what things are worth. IE ripping off newbies and the uninformed. "But less people would get ripped off that would change!" Good. That part should change. That's half the reason to improve trade in the first place!

Will prices change? Well, why should they when they haven't so far? The last time there was a big AH thread warframe.market averaged something like 15-18k CCU. Now its traffic is double. It's early Tuesday morning and there are ~31k people trading there. That's insane! Meanwhile there are only 42k people playing the game on Steam as an entire platform. Trade originating from the use of these kinds of improved trade tools is already massive. And despite the widespread adoption and rapid growth of these kinds of trade tools (and others like AlecaFrame which Spicy points out), it can be plainly seen that prices will stabilize and not enter free-fall as is commonly suggested.

Instead, the biggest factors causing the kinds of large market movements you're concerned about have been, are now, and will always be DE's own actions. For example with Saryn Prime, who was stable at ~100p for the last three months:

What's caused her stable price to start falling this last week? DE announcing that they're giving her away for free in a month. There is a change, doom! No, just the market moving as it always has.

I mean yeah, that's what I'm saying. Go talk to Sneaky about this, whatever word y'all want to use I do not care.

A little ironic, but here. No snark, no namecalling, not even a little bit. Just for you.

The "logical reasons" typically given are not logical. They are based on fear and presumption at best (I don't want things to change because I am concerned something bad will happen), and protectionism at worst (I don't want things to change because I want to protect my individual interests). The latter is exactly what it sounds like it is, but the former can be disproved using simple logical counterarguments, historical examples, and widely-available public data.

For example, one common "logical reason" given for not improving ingame trade is "if there are more people trading the economy will crash". An increase in supply leading to a drop in prices makes sense on the surface, yes! But this ignores the increase in demand that would happen at the same time, because if more total people are entering the market then logically there will be more sellers and more buyers. The counter-argument that "buyers only buy a set once" downplays the fact that this is already the case with all trade anyways and always has been, that more things are traded than just item sets, and the existence of mechanics like Baro that are designed for the express purpose of consuming excess supply. The idea of more people leading to a market crash also ignores the game's history, where past improvements to trade did not crash the economy. We now have tools like warframe.market and AlecaFrame which greatly improve trade both in game and out, yet the economy has not crashed. We even have public data from places like warframe.market showing its massive growth and userbase (rivaling the populations of entire platforms) yet with no economic crash. To the contrary, prices are actually quite stable over time! The large market movements these statements are concerned about have other simple explanations, like above with Saryn Prime's recent price drop in the last week caused by DE announcing that she would be given out for free during TennoCon.

The logical response to a concern is to look at examples, collect and review data, construct rational arguments, and evaluate counter-arguments. As I have done.

As for the other two, well, I've interacted with them in the past and know about where they stand. Sneaky for example is often more concerned with dictionary definitions and little details than with the actual intent and meaning. For example, arguing about what an "auction house" actually is instead of reading the intent of "make trade easier" and then getting stuck on "well that one has an AI auctioneer!" or whatever. Whether it's what makes a game a "looter", or what makes something an "auction house", or any of the other times I've argued with him over stupid little details that don't matter (google "pedant"), it's generally the same pattern and it's rather tiring and unproductive.

My guy.

The last one being a reply directly to you!

---

Which is why total registered accounts doesn't matter when talking about CCU. As I've been saying. But fine, you win, there are definitely a large uncounted PC CCU even though total =/= active. warframe.maket's userbase would still be larger than that supposed group.

"But muh ripping off newbies" 

Bruh there are other issues here besides that. The biggest of which being what the new "NORMAL" prices would be.

Not "lol I got lucky and found a sucker prices" I mean the "most I can reasonably expect to get for any given item" prices.

Do you know how many random prime parts are in my inventory right now but are "out of the market" because I'm not home let alone online?

If just for the sake of argument the going rate for any given item was half what it is now you would have to grind twice as much to earn the same amount of plat.

THAT is an issue. THAT would affect free to players. THAT would affect people who can only afford small plat purchases now and then. 

And THAT is an issue because basic S#&$ like forma, potatoes, slots, color palletes, skins, etc don't give a RIP what a Zephyr prime set is going for in trade chat. 

People like me who buy prime access, accessories, or both every 3 months would do just fine. Hell our plat would go further if the price of everything in trade chat went down.

But this is about more than just me. 

Making this out to be about "profiteering" or ripping off noobs by charging way outside "fair" prices is ignorant at best but more than likely intellectually dishonest. That isn't what this is about and you SHOULD be able to see that.

[SneakyErvin]

22 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

So as I said that's still a lot of people. The idea that warframe.market is small is ludicrous no matter how you try and count CCUs.

It is alot of people in isolation to what you look at i.e warframe.market. It isnt alot of people if you look at online games and trading activity easily accessible through the game. Adding the warframe.market alone would impact the economy and reduce prices. Not as badly as an automated system would, but it wouldnt look like it does now since it would be far more user friendly and available.

So the whole "Will prices change? Well, why should they when they haven't so far?" is wishful thinking and you not quite understanding what more availability will do. And that you look at old numbers for when the last thread was made is also a bit shocking. How often did you refresh the market site back then? Because the numbers there shift drastically for every refresh of the page. I did it for "fun" when you first brought up the numbers. And over a 10 minute period of a couple of refreshes it showed anywhere from 20k to 40k.

What you will look at if warframe.market gets added as a system is more fair trading since everyone will be aware, but also a drop in prices overall since trading will be all the more common across the playerbase, and we just dont have enough rare items to trade. So while everyone has access to more transparency in pricing, more trades will be required to get the same amount of plat since supply will increase. While demand has no guarantee for an equal increase due to most items practically being 1-time items.

WF just doesnt have the sink items of other games, and it doesnt have rarity in items in the same sense. The small portion we have with rarity is in rivens, both due to their native rarity rooted in weapon class + weapon, but also in the RNG stats. Which is bread and butter in most other games, where you can be competative on the market with the same item as someone else since it might have 1 or 2 points higher in a stat, or a better combination of affixes. So while player A with the slightly worse item sells his for 50g, you might be able to sell yours for more due to slightly better stats. Here however all weapons and frames are the same, so are the mods aside from rivens.

[PublikDomain]

14 hours ago, (XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA said:

This chart illustrates the points I was trying to make earlier lol. 

>not everyone uses wf market. 

It's not showing "people who use warframe.market" compared to "people who play Warframe".

It's showing "people who are using warframe.market right now" compared to "people who are playing Warframe right now".

So of course it's not going to show that "everyone uses wf market" because that's not what it's showing. It's showing concurrent users. CCU. The size of the populations actively, currently using either thing. Not "people who use warframe.market every once in a while to check prices", people currently using the service right now. This distinction seems to be frequently lost here. Like obviously not every player is going to boot up warframe.market every time they launch Warframe. But quite a lot of them do! And I think that's quite relevant.

15 hours ago, (XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA said:

>wf market existing doesnt automatically justify radical changes to the trading system with things such as auction house, offline trading, wf market into game integration etc. 

I would say given its current rate of adoption yes it kind of does, since so many people already use it anyways, but more important to the matter at hand its existence shows plainly that the things you're concerned about aren't realistic or rational concerns. Despite the widespread adoption of these kinds of trade tools and the massive flood of supply entering the economy, the economy is still fine. There has been no crash as is commonly suggested.

15 hours ago, (XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA said:

Bruh there are other issues here besides that. The biggest of which being what the new "NORMAL" prices would be.

And the "normal price" is already being set by warframe.market and has been for a long time.

For example, AlecaFrame directly pulls from warframe.market trade stats to show what parts are normally worth. Anyone using AlecaFrame is already using warframe.market as their standard.

This "normal price" is not only set by warframe.market, it's also stable as I've shown over and over again despite the market making trade easier and more accessible than ever before with a gigantic userbase that's constantly growing. Yet there has been no crash.

1 hour ago, SneakyErvin said:

It isnt alot of people if you look at online games and trading activity easily accessible through the game.

Why would you look at other online games to compare the size of a population? Like, Warframe's population is small compared to CS. So...? Isn't this quite literally an apples to oranges comparison? Maybe I don't see your point here.

If you want to look at trading activity "easily accessible through the game"... well like I think I said before you can go to trade chat and manually count the participants. You can do the same at Maroo's. There are that few people relying on trade using only on the tools inside the game. The rest - hundreds of times more - are using external tools like warframe.market. The thing that makes trading activity "easily accessible" isn't in the game. It's on this one fan-site a ton of people are already using instead.

1 hour ago, SneakyErvin said:

And that you look at old numbers for when the last thread was made is also a bit shocking. How often did you refresh the market site back then? Because the numbers there shift drastically for every refresh of the page. I did it for "fun" when you first brought up the numbers. And over a 10 minute period of a couple of refreshes it showed anywhere from 20k to 40k.

I didn't make the site and I don't know anything about their site traffic so you'd have to ask them how the counter works. Like I've said already a few times, the latest numbers are surprising even to me. But even if it's "only" 20k, or 10k, that's still a lot of CCU. Especially when compared to ingame options like trade chat or Maroo's.

1 hour ago, SneakyErvin said:

So the whole "Will prices change? Well, why should they when they haven't so far?" is wishful thinking and you not quite understanding what more availability will do.

...

What you will look at if warframe.market gets added as a system is more fair trading since everyone will be aware, but also a drop in prices overall since trading will be all the more common across the playerbase, and we just dont have enough rare items to trade. So while everyone has access to more transparency in pricing, more trades will be required to get the same amount of plat since supply will increase. While demand has no guarantee for an equal increase due to most items practically being 1-time items.

I think "why would everything suddenly be different" is quite a fair question to ask. If I have an apple and I drop it, it will fall down. It will fall down over and over again. Is it really "wishful thinking" to suggest that the next time I drop it that it will also fall down? Why would it suddenly behave differently and now fall up?

For example, you suggest that with more availability prices will drop overall. Yet availability has already increased and instead we see that prices are stable. This even though most items are already 1-time items and have always been this way. Why would this change when it has not changed in the past?

1 hour ago, SneakyErvin said:

WF just doesnt have the sink items of other games,

Instead we have Baro, a system specially designed to consume excess supply of 1-time items like Prime parts. Rivens are interesting, though. If only we had a more convenient way to sell them.... 🤔

[(XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA]

3 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

It's not showing "people who use warframe.market" compared to "people who play Warframe".

It's showing "people who are using warframe.market right now" compared to "people who are playing Warframe right now".

So of course it's not going to show that "everyone uses wf market" because that's not what it's showing. It's showing concurrent users. CCU. The size of the populations actively, currently using either thing. Not "people who use warframe.market every once in a while to check prices", people currently using the service right now. This distinction seems to be frequently lost here. Like obviously not every player is going to boot up warframe.market every time they launch Warframe. But quite a lot of them do! And I think that's quite relevant.

I would say given its current rate of adoption yes it kind of does, since so many people already use it anyways, but more important to the matter at hand its existence shows plainly that the things you're concerned about aren't realistic or rational concerns. Despite the widespread adoption of these kinds of trade tools and the massive flood of supply entering the economy, the economy is still fine. There has been no crash as is commonly suggested.

And the "normal price" is already being set by warframe.market and has been for a long time.

For example, AlecaFrame directly pulls from warframe.market trade stats to show what parts are normally worth. Anyone using AlecaFrame is already using warframe.market as their standard.

This "normal price" is not only set by warframe.market, it's also stable as I've shown over and over again despite the market making trade easier and more accessible than ever before with a gigantic userbase that's constantly growing. Yet there has been no crash.

Why would you look at other online games to compare the size of a population? Like, Warframe's population is small compared to CS. So...? Isn't this quite literally an apples to oranges comparison? Maybe I don't see your point here.

If you want to look at trading activity "easily accessible through the game"... well like I think I said before you can go to trade chat and manually count the participants. You can do the same at Maroo's. There are that few people relying on trade using only on the tools inside the game. The rest - hundreds of times more - are using external tools like warframe.market. The thing that makes trading activity "easily accessible" isn't in the game. It's on this one fan-site a ton of people are already using instead.

I didn't make the site and I don't know anything about their site traffic so you'd have to ask them how the counter works. Like I've said already a few times, the latest numbers are surprising even to me. But even if it's "only" 20k, or 10k, that's still a lot of CCU. Especially when compared to ingame options like trade chat or Maroo's.

I think "why would everything suddenly be different" is quite a fair question to ask. If I have an apple and I drop it, it will fall down. It will fall down over and over again. Is it really "wishful thinking" to suggest that the next time I drop it that it will also fall down? Why would it suddenly behave differently and now fall up?

For example, you suggest that with more availability prices will drop overall. Yet availability has already increased and instead we see that prices are stable. This even though most items are already 1-time items and have always been this way. Why would this change when it has not changed in the past?

Instead we have Baro, a system specially designed to consume excess supply of 1-time items like Prime parts. Rivens are interesting, though. If only we had a more convenient way to sell them.... 🤔

Tldr