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# Status Chance Should Be Showing A Different Number (Multishot, Math)

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Now that the new mods are out, I figure I should just throw this out here.

Shotguns are interesting because they have so many pellets, each with its own chance of procuring a status effect. This is not shown well in the arsenal screen because the arsenal screen is showing "probability of procuring at least 1 status effect from all pellets fired".

Lets take an example, boar prime. With both + 0.60% status mods + hells chamber, we can get boar primes arsenal status chance all the way to 92.5% probability of at least 1 status effect from all pellets fired.

With so many pellets, what is important is not the odds of 1 or more pellets procuring a status, but the average number of status effects expected per volley.

Instead of saying that I have 92.5% probability of at least 1 status effect per volley, the arsenal screen should be saying that I should expect an average of 2.4 status effects per volley.

This applies not only to shotguns, but all weapons that shoot multiple 'pellets' due to multishot mods.

And here's the math behind it.

In order to find the average number of status effects per volley, we first need to find the status chance for an individual pellet. We can do this by taking the arsenal status effect number, the number of pellets, and plugging them into the formula:

Pellet status chance =1-(1-arsenal status chance)^(1/number of pellets)

for a stock boar prime:

Pellet status chance = 1-(1-0.4)^(1/9)

Pellet status chance = 1-(0.6)^(0.11)

Pellet status chance = 1-(0.945)

Pellet status chance = 0.055 (5.5% status chance per pellet)

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For reference, we can also reverse this formula to get back to the arsenal screen status chance (at least 1 status per volley):

arsenal status chance = 1-(1-pellet status chance)^(number of pellets)

for stock boar prime

arsenal status chance = 1-(1-0.055)^(9)

arsenal status chance = 1-(0.945)^9

arsenal status chance = 1-(0.6)

arsenal status chance  = 0.4 (40% probability of at least 1 status effect per volley)

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To find average status effects per volley, we simply take the pellet status chance and multiply by the number of pellets per volley:

average status effect per volley = pellet status chance * number of pellets

For stock boar prime:

average status effects per volley = 0.055 * 9

average status effects per volley = 0.495 (0.495 status effects per volley)

Again, that is to say for a stock boar prime, we can expect get a status effect about 50% of the time every shot assuming each pellet hits a target.

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Back to the original statement of a modded boar prime with 92.5% arsenal status effect restated as 2.4 status effects per volley:

Pellet status chance =1-(1-arsenal status chance)^(1/number of pellets)

Pellet status chance = 1-(1-0.925)^(1/(9*2.2))

Pellet status chance = 1-(0.075)^(1/19.8)

Pellet status chance = 1-(0.877)

Pellet status chance = 0.123 (12.3% status chance per pellet)

average status effects per volley = pellet status chance * number of pellets

average status effects per volley = 0.123 * (9*2.2)

average status effects per volley = 2.43 (2.43 status effects per volley)

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shotguns no longer have a chance for each pellet to proc via status chance, this was changed, with the status chance beign higher than before and the proc only being possible per Volley, not per pellet.

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shotguns no longer have a chance for each pellet to proc via status chance, this was changed, with the status chance beign higher than before and the proc only being possible per Volley, not per pellet.

The opposite is true. Currently (update 12.4.5) each pellet has its own chance to procure status effects.

As proof, I just shot this level 27 grineer with my boar prime (using just hells chamber and both 60% status chance mods).

You can see 21 numbers pop up, including 17 normal numbers, 1 critical (yellow), 1 slash status, 1 corrosive status. The '4' that is grey like a normal number is a damage tick from the slash proc.

I also tested this with the Detron to show that this is consistent across both primary and secondary shotgun type weapons. It has the same behavior.

PS. This image also shows two things:

1. That it is possible to get multiple and different types of status effects in a single shot.

2. That the corrosive status is already affecting the damage of some of the other pellets in the same volley by reducing armor ('13' vs '15' on the normal damage numbers)

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well u got 21 damage numbers yes, but you probably didnt get 21 corrosive procs.

the slash/corrosive thing appearing at once in your picture is either the fact your shooting that fast that 1s visuals are just vanishing as the others just showing up or it could be the weird &amp;#&#33; bug/issue/somethign random mentioned on the wiki regarding toxic combination procs stacking with other procs.

but afaik you cant get a handful of elemental procs all at once from a ton of pellets, ill have a play myself but i havent noticed anything different while using the brakk which ive relvld twice recently, ill have a play with other shotguns as well tho, see if i get the same as you.

if it was the case it expect my brakk to show it given i use corrosive+cold along with seeker, that many elemental combos along with 2.1m punch through, id expect to see lots of procs at once if the pellets were back to how they used to be and proc'ing individually, if thats the case then "hell yeah" coz the new systems a load of bollocks.

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well u got 21 damage numbers yes, but you probably didnt get 21 corrosive procs.

the slash/corrosive thing appearing at once in your picture is either the fact your shooting that fast that 1s visuals are just vanishing as the others just showing up or it could be the weird &amp;#&#33; bug/issue/somethign random mentioned on the wiki regarding toxic combination procs stacking with other procs.

but afaik you cant get a handful of elemental procs all at once from a ton of pellets, ill have a play myself but i havent noticed anything different while using the brakk which ive relvld twice recently, ill have a play with other shotguns as well tho, see if i get the same as you.

if it was the case it expect my brakk to show it given i use corrosive+cold along with seeker, that many elemental combos along with 2.1m punch through, id expect to see lots of procs at once if the pellets were back to how they used to be and proc'ing individually, if thats the case then "hell yeah" coz the new systems a load of bollocks.

Please reread my post. My screenshots shows that you can definitely get several different procs from the same volley of pellets. The image is of a single shot from my boar prime (14/15 current magazine count, sentinel weapon disabled).

Here is my detron doing 2 radiation procs and 1 corrosive proc in the same volley. This is also a single shot.

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then u should delete this thread and dont let on to DE that its working like the old way which is better than their per volley system that came later :D

coz this ways much better :D

having said that im still not seeing multiple procs on my brakk, maybe im just unlucky.

btw as the wiki said theres a weird bug involving the use of toxic mods and status procs can you try your test again and not use a toxin mod?  just to see if the results the same, maybe try radiation and cold?

if it works then i hope its not "fixed".

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then u should delete this thread and dont let on to DE that its working like the old way which is better than their per volley system that came later :D

coz this ways much better :D

having said that im still not seeing multiple procs on my brakk, maybe im just unlucky.

btw as the wiki said theres a weird bug involving the use of toxic mods and status procs can you try your test again and not use a toxin mod?  just to see if the results the same, maybe try radiation and cold?

if it works then i hope its not "fixed".

Here is boar prime doing 2 slash procs and 1 impact proc in the same shot.

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win.

btw gz on using your boar prime, clicking fire once and not having 1/2 your ammo stock vanish in a heartbeat.

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...

Thanks for this thread! great research.

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From what ive seen if projectile crit or procs a status every additional multishot projectile will also crit and proc same element even if they hit different targets

Tysis 110%(100.1% with multishot[bug here]) will proc 3 times same element.

Latron 37.5% chance crits with both projectiles.

For shotgun  each pellet have its own multishot chance, So with maxed mod each pellet will spawn additional pellet with a 20% to spawn 3rd one and these inherit their "mother" projectile effects. You can proc as many different status effects as you have "mother" pellets.

Same thing seems to apply for burst weapons.

Also you cant get 2 different procs with 1 projectile.

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now we can only hope whats been found is all intended and wont be "fixed".

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I agree with changing the arsenal % number. Whether or not shotguns are currently OP/UP is irrelevant, the fact is that the way the arsenal presents the status % is very misleading and in general not that good of a gauge of your status chance.

Rather than how the OP suggest though, I would prefer that they revert to the old way of presenting status chance and I felt that it was much less misleading. This means showing it as status % per pellet (and please label it as such if done this way). I feel that this is a much cleaner way of getting across the effectiveness of your weapon than calculating probability of getting a proc, or even expected number of procs per shot (as OP suggests), since by nature not all of your pellets will land to begin with if you are either firing outside optimal ranges or your target will not survive being hit with all pellets to begin with.

Note that I'm not saying revert status chance to how it used to be for shotguns (while I would like it, a middle ground between their current % chance and their old would probably be good). Just at least revert to how they used to show it.