Dilution Is Meaningless, It's About The Probability

[Yorinar]

While I appreciate the stated intention of reducing dilution in the Void drop tables, that actually doesn't mean anything.  That people have been asking for a reduction in dilution is because they don't understand probability.  DE, we actually want you to increase the probability of rare items dropping.  Please make that change.

 

Here is why people confuse dilution with probability.  They assume incorrectly that everything drops with uniform probability.  Take for example two urns full of balls, and let's say you only know that certain colors of balls are in these urns.  In one urn, there are 5 red balls, 5 blue balls, 5 yellow balls, 4 gray balls, and 1 black ball.  This urn is diluted.  Your chance of pulling a black ball is small (5%).  While pulling items from this urn you get frustrated because so many things are being pulled out of it.  "Dilution!!" you scream at the Dark God of RNG.

 

In a second urn, we have 19 red balls and 1 black ball.  This urn is not diluted (yay?) but your chance is no better.  You still have a 5% chance.  Now when you pull from this urn, you scream "Another accursed red ball!!!"

 

Anyone who has been grinding all weekend should understand this feeling on a visceral level.  Calls to remove fusion cores or void keys from drops don't mean a thing if they don't increase the chance of rare items dropping.

 

tl;dr DE, don't hide behind fixing dilution, we want you to increase the drop rates of rare items.

 

P.S.  See my other thread requesting that DE publish probability tables as well as drop locations: https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/245447-request-for-de-to-post-probabilities-along-with-drop-locations/

[-CM-Tiffany]

[se05239]

Remove any duplicate prime gear in the drop tables, level out the drop chances. It would be amazing if they did, but I doubt they will.

[MegaSnail]

I've been thinking that for a while, never actually went around with posting it. 

[Brontolith]

I find it funny that at the time of me posting this the gif with the head nod has more upvotes then the OP....

[DraydenSama]

This is correct and people should know more about that.

 

I bet most of players just dont understand the difference.

[Yorinar]

I find it funny that at the time of me posting this the gif with the head nod has more upvotes then the OP....

 

I admit, I upvoted your post but couldn't upvote my own.  :)

[Dualstar]

Heres what i know about probability summed up in a 3 panel comic.

 

[Imaru]

The dilution that DE addresses is the quantity of stuff that can drop per location. By reducing that number (reducing dilution) the percent chance of something dropping goes up. Unfortunately, you can only get 100% drop (ie, something is guaranteed to drop) and with the amount of stuff to farm the percentage of any one thing is very much lower than you may want it to be. I think this is why the rotation system was implemented so that at a given time there is a smaller drop table to "choose" from.

[Yorinar]

The dilution that DE addresses is the quantity of stuff that can drop per location. By reducing that number (reducing dilution) the percent chance of something dropping goes up. Unfortunately, you can only get 100% drop (ie, something is guaranteed to drop) and with the amount of stuff to farm the percentage of any one thing is very much lower than you may want it to be. I think this is why the rotation system was implemented so that at a given time there is a smaller drop table to "choose" from.

 

This is the misconception I mean to address.  If something has a 5% chance of dropping, that is its chance of dropping.  It doesn't matter how many items are in the table because the drop rate doesn't depend on that.  It depends on a probability that DE has set beforehand.  The drop rates of items they don't care about will increase (like fusion cores or reaper handles) because they have to buff those to make up for the missing probability, but the rare items that WE actually care about don't necessarily change.

[(PSN)Pengu_Imperialus]

Also missing the point. Rare stuff (I.e. new) will always be really hard to get. It's part of the business model for F2P. You can A.) Pay for it and get it now: B.) Grind like mad and hope you get it soon; C.) Wait till more new stuff drops so it gets pushed down into the more common drops. Just because you want it for free faster does not make it happen.

[Nuke]

I agree with the op as well. This is why there was such an uproar back when DE started encrypting the drop tables. Having rare items with 1% - 2% drop rates is absurd given how much time and rng is needed to even get the proper key in the first place.

[kubbi]

Remove all duplicates and let all drops have an equal drop chance. Problem solved. I believe its a thing users have been wanting from the start. Equality. Rarities cause nothing but frustration.

If one's worried that that way items will be obtained too quikly, don't worry. Because the only "content" this game has is grind. Everything needs to be grinded. There will always be something to be grinded. Pls reduce it. Oh God pls.

[(PSN)Pengu_Imperialus]

Remove all duplicates and let all drops have an equal drop chance. Problem solved. I believe its a thing users have been wanting from the start. Equality. Rarities cause nothing but frustration.

If one's worried that that way items will be obtained too quikly, don't worry. Because the only "content" this game has is grind. Everything needs to be grinded. There will always be something to be grinded. Pls reduce it. Oh God pls.

Okay so we reduce grind. Grind is theoretically gone. What makes people buy content? You don't have to wait for anything, so why would you throw good money at the game? What is a viable replacement for income? Answer that question then we can probably get rid of grind.

[WhisperByte]

Okay so we reduce grind. Grind is theoretically gone. What makes people buy content? You don't have to wait for anything, so why would you throw good money at the game? What is a viable replacement for income? Answer that question then we can probably get rid of grind.

^This

DEvs have absolutely zero reasons to reduce the grind and increase rare drop chances

[n0xi0us]

Okay so we reduce grind. Grind is theoretically gone. What makes people buy content? You don't have to wait for anything, so why would you throw good money at the game? What is a viable replacement for income? Answer that question then we can probably get rid of grind.

 

I've tried that line of thinking, but fingers seem to get put in ears and summarily ignored. This line here, pretty well sums up that while I understand frustration at not getting something new or something you want and not get it right away, it can become a pain.. however, since DE does not charge a sticker price to the game, and still making things freely accessible through good old fashioned rolling through the content, cosmetics aren't going to keep things afloat when anyone can get whatever it is within a day. Prime Access becomes a waste, trading goes out the rails and so on.

 

Hyperbolic? Sure. However, its a feasible scenario, unless as the poster I quoted said, players can somehow come up with a way for DE to supplement their income, I don't see a drastic change coming any time soon.

[Blatantfool]

  A drop table with 10 items is better then a drop table with 15 items which is better then one with 20.

 

 The more items that you have to give a drop rate on a single table the smaller the chance of getting any specific item at all. Players set specific goals. They don't dive into farming just to pull out whatever. They've more often then not got specific things in mind. That is just how things work. So...

 

 Dilution always matters.

 

Too many drops in a table and farming becomes insanely tedious and burn out gets far worse rapidly as players find their goals being more trouble then they are worth.

 

Too few drops in the tables and farming becomes insanely easy and burn out gets far worse as players obtain everything and run out of goals to set.

[Lunamaniac]

Dilution is certainly an issue if you want everything in the table to have a chance of dropping.  People don't argue that we need less dilution because they're ignorant, it's because they have a practical understanding for methods to increase the probability of drawing the item they want.

 

If DE interprets that as raising the probability of useless items to compensate for decreased dilution then that is not the players failing to understand the different between dilution and probability, that is DE using underhanded tactics.

 

Both dilution and probability are necessary factors for consideration.

 

 

Too few drops in the tables and farming becomes insanely easy and burn out gets far worse as players obtain everything and run out of goals to set.

That's not burnout, that's finishing the game and not wasting your time grinding.  The core problem if you think this drives players away is that they have nothing to do once they've unlocked everything.  Weapons and frames are interesting and unique, that's a bit of a waste if they're just trophies to collect.  We seem to agree on the dilution business though overall.

Edited June 16, 2014 by Lunamaniac

[kubbi]

Okay so we reduce grind. Grind is theoretically gone. What makes people buy content? You don't have to wait for anything, so why would you throw good money at the game? What is a viable replacement for income? Answer that question then we can probably get rid of grind.

 

I'm not saying remove grind. I'm saying reduce it. Because in Warfarm its way out of control, people aren't enjoying it. When people enjoy the game they are more likely to spend money on the game, believe me. I spend money when the game was in the earlier stage and the grind wasn't so atrocious because I was genuinly enjoying it. Now I refuse to spend a cent unless they fix the damn issue.

[Tulzscha]

Moved to the proper section.

[Yorinar]

  A drop table with 10 items is better then a drop table with 15 items which is better then one with 20.

 

 The more items that you have to give a drop rate on a single table the smaller the chance of getting any specific item at all.

 

 Dilution always matters.

 

Too many drops in a table and farming becomes insanely tedious and burn out gets far worse rapidly as players find their goals being more trouble then they are worth.

 

Too few drops in the tables and farming becomes insanely easy and burn out gets far worse as players obtain everything and run out of goals to set.

 

Dilution only matters in that it places a bound on the average probability of any particular item.  If there are 10 things in the drop table, the average probability is 10% per item.  For 20, it's 5%.  If Loki Prime Systems drops with a rate of 0.5%, it doesn't matter if the dilution is 10 items or 50, because you are still getting it at a rate equivalent to if there were 200 items in that drop table.

 

As to your point about too many drops leading to tedium, I would actually contend that if I am always getting new things, there is no tedium at all.  An infinite drop table is preferable to a small one.  What matters more than any of this is progress.  If my progress is blocked by doing the same exact thing for 100 hours, getting the same garbage again and again, I will not be happy.  The current Void set up addresses the downside of an infinite drop table, as you point out: that directed farming should be possible.  

 

About easy farming, you're absolutely right.  If it's too easy, people lose interest quickly.

 

What we have right now though is that it's too hard.  And probability is the issue there, not dilution.

Edited June 16, 2014 by Yorinar

[Blatantfool]

Dilution only matters in that it places a bound on the average probability of any particular item.  If there are 10 things in the drop table, the average probability is 10% per item.  For 20, it's 5%.  If Loki Prime Systems drops with a rate of 0.5%, it doesn't matter if the dilution is 10 items or 50, because you are still getting it at a rate equivalent to if there were 200 items in that drop table.

 

As to your point about too many drops leading to tedium, I would actually contend that if I am always getting new things, there is no tedium at all.  An infinite drop table is preferable to a small one.  What matters more than any of this is progress.  If my progress is blocked by doing the same exact thing for 100 hours, getting the same garbage again and again, I will not be happy.  The current Void set up addresses the downside of an infinite drop table, as you point out: that directed farming should be possible.  

 

About easy farming, you're absolutely right.  If it's too easy, people lose interest quickly.

 

What we have right now though is that it's too hard.  And probability is the issue there, not dilution.

 

 I guess I see what you mean about the numbers thing. I can't dispute that. 

 

 But the tedium thing I think you've got wrong. The odds are exceedingly high that aside from the goal item you have in mind you probably don't need or don't want the rest. Especially so if we're talking mods, but also true for Void.

 

 So when you're plucking away through hordes of enemies to try to get the "Doohicky Prime Barrel" and you turn up "Kebab Prime Dongle" it's annoying. Even if you don't have the thing you got the part for yet, most people just want what they're farming for. They came here for that thing. Spent a key for that thing.

 

 And they'll feel no better when DE announced "Dual Kebab Prime" and find out the parts for it share a table with the drop they still need from their original goal. So now there is yet another thing that feels like it is in between you and that thing you want. Things only get worse if that new item shares a Rare tier rating with your goal. You finally get a rare - of course it isn't what you wanted though.

 

 It's like those times you see a rare mod actually drop and once you grab it it's a skillcard.

[Yorinar]

 But the tedium thing I think you've got wrong. The odds are exceedingly high that aside from the goal item you have in mind you probably don't need or don't want the rest. Especially so if we're talking mods, but also true for Void.

 

-snip-

 

 It's like those times you see a rare mod actually drop and once you grab it it's a skillcard.

 

That's a fair point.  People will want to farm directly and aren't interested in everything.  Assuming reasonable (uniform) probabilities for drop rates, dilution does cause the average probability of the item you're looking for to go down.  That's part of the problem with the case of mods after U6 where people were going days without getting redirection or vitality, and still the problem with skill cards.  

 

Dilution and drop rates are a trade-off.  You can't have all around high probabilities with too much dilution, and reducing dilution helps nothing if the part you want has too low a drop rate.