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Drop Rate And Seeds Theory


noveltyhero
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So guys, I have a theory.

Has not been technically tested (looking through code etc) but here goes nothing :/

 

There is a seed the host of the game receives within a certain time. That seed declares how rare the rare items actually are. Depending on that seed and your results within that game you should know whether to play another game or not. This is a silly system but it seems in place.

I don't know how you would find this seed however if your luck within a mission is not good change the host (if possible) or play at different timings during the day.

 

Example: I tried to get the Orthos Prime for ages and all I needed was the blade. One time I had gotten the blade, then another one and my friend wanted one too so I decided to join him (I was hosting at the time) then we get another one. This was all within the same hour.

 

I noticed this when we were farming rare resources in the double resource weekend. (we should have another one of those)

One time we had gotten 37 orokin cells in one mission survival, then the same mission we played again with only 8-10 to receive, after that we had another game where we got 4. The day after however at a similar time we got 16 in a mission.

 

So this could all be my imagination trying to calm my brain down after trying so hard to get some STUPID Neural Sensors (2 weeks and still none to be found) or could be true but in a better explained way.

 

What do you think? Truth or Bullsh*t?

NO rage please, thank you :)

 

EDIT:

TL;DR

When you start a game you receive a seed, dependent on host or timing of day. Depending on that seed you will receive rare items or common ones, regardless of mission.

 

EDIT 2:

Recent try out. I played a few Tenno Dark Sector conflicts, I had gotten Decisive Judgment TWICE in a row. My friend was playing these missions for days trying to get it. I invite him and we get another one.

 

TIPS:If you played a mission and drop rate was great, play again with the same host ASAP and check the drop rate. Maybe won't work first time, but keep trying and sometimes you get the same or similar seed.

Edited by noveltyhero
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We now know too much. They're after us.

 

Your Theory may also explain how sometimes you continue getting things like 5 R5 Cores more than once, and how DE is staying silent about this in an attempt to let it blow off. 

Edited by -CM-Tiffany
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My friends have always said I have more luck than them in this game, and I have felt it might be a bit too coincidental, but I think it is just luck, not some seed. Though, that would explain why I got 3 unique rare  stances by transmutating in a row...

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My friends have always said I have more luck than them in this game, and I have felt it might be a bit too coincidental, but I think it is just luck, not some seed. Though, that would explain why I got 3 unique rare  stances by transmutating in a row...

Luck is not real my friend. It is mere an illusion of life, to which you fell for. No worries we all fall for them, otherwise life is not worth living :)

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D. None of the Above

It's a hypothesis, as no actual evidence or data has been found.

Whilst no "data" has been found. Experiments were carried on over the past half a year, as I closely watched RNG, of course still blindly poking it in case something falls out :O

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It would'nt be the first time games have employed this seed generator... The trouble comes when the community catches on and learns how to exploit it...

 

This theory is consistent too with some forum posters in the Argon threads.. Some people report having success and getting multiple rare drops in 1 hour of survival. While others invest 8 hours and dont even get 1.

 

Either way there is a problem with loot tables and it needs to be solved

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I think you are right there is a seed system in place, I have had times where I would run defence maps for most of the day and not get a single mod I am looking for, so I quit out for a few hours only to come back later and get like 5 or 6 of the mod I was originally looking for.

 

It would be a way to make the drop tables appear less diluted but only having sertain seed values drop certain items, but then you would end up with too many rng walls to climb over (not that there are way too many of those already) in the hopes you get a good seed with the items you are looking for.

 

But it feels like a similar kind of system that Civ5 has, you start a new game and you get assigned a random seed, this seed could have all the great resources you need in abundance, however you could also end up with all the great resources in opposing territories means you would have to fight for them.

 

At the end of the day though while it does feel like we have a seed system in Warframe, unless we can actually prove it we will just drive ourselves to frustration loggin in and out all the time in the hopes were get a seed with a high rarity drop chance.

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You are talking about this?

https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/128402-rng-algorithm-bugschanges/

 

In theory was fixed, but who knows

I am aware of that "fix" However that fixed frequency of how much RNG changes because when it was bugged it hardly changed so people were stuck on their own (few knew, so few exploited). That said, RNG itself should be PRNG for this game (pseudo-random number generator) which means it puts in calculation previous seeds.

You often get the same reward, that's because each line of RNG seed is independent, hopefully they fix that :)

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Whilst no "data" has been found. Experiments were carried on over the past half a year, as I closely watched RNG, of course still blindly poking it in case something falls out :O

At least the few I've seen have posted spreadsheets of their relative drops of some particular item they were after. What you're talking about is more like conjecture. So far all I am seeing are the exact specifications to a 'Random Number Generator' as there is no means to run some sort of control group to make conclusions about an experiment's end result.

 

In the end, there will be those who manage to get something on the first try, and those who will never see it no matter how many hours they farm. Randomization works that way; if the number you're after is 7, you could very well get every single other number between 0 and 100 and never land on 7. Otherwise I'd be in Vegas playing Roulette right now, earning millions.

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At least the few I've seen have posted spreadsheets of their relative drops of some particular item they were after. What you're talking about is more like conjecture. So far all I am seeing are the exact specifications to a 'Random Number Generator' as there is no means to run some sort of control group to make conclusions about an experiment's end result.

 

In the end, there will be those who manage to get something on the first try, and those who will never see it no matter how many hours they farm. Randomization works that way; if the number you're after is 7, you could very well get every single other number between 0 and 100 and never land on 7. Otherwise I'd be in Vegas playing Roulette right now, earning millions.

Sadly true.

I love RNG when it is used for 1% of the game, not 99%....Please PRNG >.>

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So guys, I have a theory.

Has not been technically tested (looking through code etc) but here goes nothing :/

 

There is a seed the host of the game receives within a certain time. That seed declares how rare the rare items actually are. Depending on that seed and your results within that game you should know whether to play another game or not. This is a silly system but it seems in place.

I don't know how you would find this seed however if your luck within a mission is not good change the host (if possible) or play at different timings during the day.

 

............

 

 

 

What do you think? Truth or Bullsh*t?

NO rage please, thank you :)

 

 

 

 

*puts on tin foil hat*

 

 

So many times i had the feeling that warframe uses that  seed system. meh but no way to prove it. :P

.

Edited by kultuu
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As someone who plays a fair amount of dice based games, I really think its all RNG. I've seen some ridiculous bs for such extended periods in dice games that you would be sure the dice are loaded.

Except it is different here. You play dice games knowing how fair it is and you choose to accept that gamestyle. However, this game should not be based on such style >.>

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