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Please Stop Having Orokin Reactors/catalyst Alerts At Late Night.


Gehinnom
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Dearest OP, statistics tend to mean very little with small sample sizes. In fact, you basically can't make any conclusions with the 4 examples provided above.

 

Having said that, if you actually dig back, these releases really are somewhat skewed. 8/11 of the catalyst/reactor alerts for the last three months are between 6:30PM and 12:30PM EST. Havn't crunched the numbers myself to see if it's a statistically significant deviation from randomness, but who knows. 

 

Personally, I'm ok with this. Out of sheer avarice and malice, I propose all Orokin Catalyst and Reactor alerts be set to 8:30 PM EST. Not too late, but probably after most folks have had dinner. In Chicago. Where I am. 

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Funny how I was laying in bed, unable to sleep @ around 0030, today. I then randomly decided to get on twitch (mobile). While there I notice ppl were playing warframe so I decided to check it out. Pick random channel and I get this guy who is about to begin a new mission, when suddenly he ends up checking his last mission reward screen. At which point I noticed his rewards. To my surprise, I see a potato. I then quickly check the twitter feed and realized I still had time. So I go and turn on my PC to get a shiny potato. I got soooooo lucky.

Give this man a cookie. To the original poster, it's a random system. That's unfair to everyone.

Take a breath and stop raging just because you missed a few alerts, there will be others.

There, I fixed it. :-D

* yes, I do mean for everyone, including DE.

Edited by Vitalidad
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Dude, your not the first, and won't be the last, to post a thread proclaiming potato alerts to be non-random and favoring certain time zones. The strange thing is, these threads appear come from people in many different time zones.

 

If you can see a pattern that appears to favor one timezone, then your sample size is too small to be statistically significant.

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There was someone who made a list of Orokin Reactors/Catalysts alerts, around 70% were during night time in EU, since that thread was made i noticed that this percentage is still around the same. Now people can say its RNG(and I'm pretty sure its true), but something as valuable and rare as Orokin Catalysts/Reactors, should not be influenced by RNG. Increasing this alerts time would be a good option.

 

Just saying something without something to back it up but saying there is something to back it up, doesn't make it true.

 

I think I need the best way to show my point is below, comparing shopping in real life in comparison to shopping on the internet

 

http://youtu.be/eRnoUNwFOkE?t=1m33s

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They actually don't priviledge people on their time zone, the alerts are pulled from a randomly generated quota created on each cycle last we heard about it (unless they said something during U13). EG one alert cycle finishes, every item available from alerts is then randomly ordered into a quota and appear with random timings between then and the end of that cycle when that quota is used up, a new quota is then generated.

 

DE actually has no control over it other than forcing alerts such as the devstream ones to appear, the rest are just RNG unfortunately.

 

This is true. I've seen potatoe alerts on times which would be on mignight or morning for Americans.

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Just as a mention on probabilities and RNG : if you have a 1% chance of an event happening, it doesn't mean it'll happen once every 100 occurences. It only means that, in an average and ideal distribution of occurences, it should happen around 1 in 100 times. However, since random number generation doesn't follow an ideal distribution as a core principle of randomisation, it never guarantees that one instance to happen every 100 occurences.

 

Likewise, there are periods of times when those alerts seems to favor happening in the "ideal" timezones for certain players; it's merely the RNG turning out a certain range of results more often for that period of time. It's entirely possible that another period of time later will also favor another ideal timezone. However, neither are guaranteed.

 

Another example I can give where RNG is sometime confused : music playlist shuffling. Here, the 'random' part is just changing the order in which your songs are played but it's not true RNG since every song (assuming preferences and ratings aren't taken in account for ordering) is guaranteed to be played once which is an ideal distribution. Your one classical song amongst your 99 songs of other genres is guaranteed to play once every 100 song cycles. If playlist shuffling was entirely random, then it's entirely possible that you might get the same song twice in a row or even (let's say that you have 20 songs of every genre) that you get 5 country songs played in a row, then 2 metal songs and so on with some songs not even playing after 100 or 200 songs have been played in a row.

Edited by Wiegraf
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Another example I can give where RNG is sometime confused : music playlist shuffling. Here, the 'random' part is just changing the order in which your songs are played but it's not true RNG since every song (assuming preferences and ratings aren't taken in account for ordering) is guaranteed to be played once which is an ideal distribution. Your one classical song amongst your 99 songs of other genres is guaranteed to play once every 100 song cycles. If playlist shuffling was entirely random, then it's entirely possible that you might get the same song twice in a row or even (let's say that you have 20 songs of every genre) that you get 5 country songs played in a row, then 2 metal songs and so on with some songs not even playing after 100 or 200 songs have been played in a row.

 

I'm sorry to be pedantic here but this is nothing to do with random. The function isn't called randomise, it's called Shuffle - and that's exactly what it does. It changes the order the tracks are played in, it doesn't play one track and then pick another at random. It just shuffles them similar to a pack of cards.

 

So when you shuffle a pack of cards all you do is change the order to one you do not know. Once you have shuffled you play each card in turn and no matter how well you shuffled you should not expect to get a second Ace of Spades. Similarly when you hit the shuffle button on your mp3 player you are just changing the order of the tracks and no matter how well it shuffled them you should not expect to hear a second Ace of Spades.

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I'm sorry to be pedantic here but this is nothing to do with random. The function isn't called randomise, it's called Shuffle - and that's exactly what it does. It changes the order the tracks are played in, it doesn't play one track and then pick another at random. It just shuffles them similar to a pack of cards.

 

So when you shuffle a pack of cards all you do is change the order to one you do not know. Once you have shuffled you play each card in turn and no matter how well you shuffled you should not expect to get a second Ace of Spades. Similarly when you hit the shuffle button on your mp3 player you are just changing the order of the tracks and no matter how well it shuffled them you should not expect to hear a second Ace of Spades.

 

It's why the first sentence said "where RNG is sometime confused" and the random was in quotes : because it's not random. It gives the impression it is because your songs / cards / whichever are no longer in order and seem to be picked at random when the order is actually just moved around. People tend to think that RNG means that if you have 1% chance of something happening, it should happen at least once every 100 occurences. That's actually closer to the shuffling and ideal distribution.

 

True RNG simply means that some kind of pattern can be expected, but it cannot be assured. In theory, every time of the day should have an equal chance of being picked. In practice, there's no guarantee that each timezone will always get an equitable amount of alerts during any given day.

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It's why the first sentence said "where RNG is sometime confused" and the random was in quotes : because it's not random. It gives the impression it is because your songs / cards / whichever are no longer in order and seem to be picked at random when the order is actually just moved around. People tend to think that RNG means that if you have 1% chance of something happening, it should happen at least once every 100 occurences. That's actually closer to the shuffling and ideal distribution.

 

True RNG simply means that some kind of pattern can be expected, but it cannot be assured. In theory, every time of the day should have an equal chance of being picked. In practice, there's no guarantee that each timezone will always get an equitable amount of alerts during any given day.

 

Ah yes, my bad. Didn't read things properly first time.

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