71 "failed" Incubation Trying To Get Chesa, Been Trying Since U17 Launch

[macroeconomics]

Egg 36, still no Chesa. The trusting liquid gaze of newborn doges right before they are immediately abandoned haunt my every waking hour.
 

Across my entire clan we've gotten one single Chesa. RNG for kubrows destroys any possibility of fun in breeding them.

If that one is willing to share you can keep it going and your whole clan can have the same clone?

 

^
I don't hate trade but the prices are still pretty bad i think.

Edited September 25, 2015 by macroeconomics

[Hypernaut1]

Egg 36, still no Chesa. The trusting liquid gaze of newborn doges right before they are immediately abandoned haunt my every waking hour.

 

If that one is willing to share you can keep it going and your whole clan can have the same clone?

 

^

I don't hate trade but the prices are still pretty bad i think.

what are they going for now?

[(PSN)PeetSquared]

There is a Chesa kubrow going in ps4 trade on these forums right now...dude is charging 200p. Yeah, no thanks.

[Bhargo]

If that one is willing to share you can keep it going and your whole clan can have the same clone?

That's pretty much what we are doing right now.

people wouldnt be so stressed out if they would just use the trade system.

Due to rarity of them in the first place, prices of templates are insanely high. People know about the trade system, but don't want to spend 100 plat on templates.

[321agemo]

Out of curiousity, can we get a poll to compare console to PC? maybe its one side compare to the other?

[Adaptor-Face]

update 03.10.15: still no chesa. The addition of showing me the breed before name allows me to know if i should care about the name, since i have resorted to button mashing for names

Edited October 4, 2015 by Adaptor-Face

[arKRazor]

Spent two hours fruitlessly hunting for egg ~20. I think I'm just going to stop worrying about it.

[Adaptor-Face]

Updated OP with new math to reflect my current situation. i am starting to feel like doing a lecture on RNG and why the current method is broken, bad and not user friendly at all.

Edited October 7, 2015 by Adaptor-Face

[Kolos1001]

The whole Kubrow thing is a facebook game. 

[Adaptor-Face]

Today was a bad egg farming day, took me well over 2 hours of non-stop pacific, earth runs to get an egg.

 

Also updated OP with time spent and credit spent trying to get one measly kubrow breed.

 

Also decided to update topic title to be more clear what is going on in here

Edited October 11, 2015 by Adaptor-Face

[321agemo]

I think you should probably submit and just borrow someone's chesa kubrow @adapter-face lol.

[VoidNomade]

Good lord what an effort for the community. Thank you.

[Qynchou]

And then theres me, 1st try, damn your rng sucks &#! man.

[(PSN)obsidiancurse]

I gave up and bought 2 prints. Then sold my prints to get my plat back. For you sanity I recommend you do the same.

An egg a day for over a month was pretty soul destroying. It's like some accounts just cannot get some things or at least have a much harder time? Maybe to keep the economy ticking over.

[(PSN)wonderwoman814]

...Meanwhile I got a Chesa on day one, made some imprints of it, and now all my friends have one too.

 

Perhaps try asking a friend or clan member for an imprint, or buying one, raising it, imprinting it, then selling the imprint back to someone else for no loss?

same here :D small bulky lotus but MY small chesa >:).

[arKRazor]

I'm losing my mind and I'm only at 20 failed attempts.

Our thoughts are with you, OP.

[Kolos1001]

Guys not everyone has the same bad luck. Be thankful imprints are tradeable unlike mesa parts

[(PSN)OMGITSNUKERXD]

O.O

[S0V3REiGN]

damn dude, I think I still have a chesa, i can give you those imprints.

[PublikDomain]

snip

At least you're finding eggs. I haven't seen a single one in months, and not for lack of trying. The few I did find ages ago were all Sahasa and I chucked em out the airlock.

 

I've given up on ever having a Chesa, ever finding a Vectis Prime, and now with the new PA ever finding Kamas or Trinity.

 

I have given up.

[Adaptor-Face]

to all the people wanting to give me imprints: i dont need them (ty for the offer), i am doing this to show DE once and for all that true random is broken and unfair, and that we need pseudo-random distribution. 

 

true random gives you a % of a pool of infinite times done, now what happens if all of the times i am going to get a chesa is at the end?

 

Pseudo-random increases your chances everytime you dont get it and will prevent this form of RNG screw-over

 

For the three people who are going to be more interested about the difference:

link to the same system in another game (dota 2): Pseudo-random

Edited October 11, 2015 by Adaptor-Face

[Mak_Gohae]

its now 35  72 days since the release of Chesa Kubrow. i have had an incubation nearly every day since their release with the incubator upgrade. that's a lot of incubation's, and a REALLY badly "drop" table. 

its reaching Bo Prime Handle levels of RNG and im not sure if i can go through that again (that took me over 100 runs before i got mine).

 

i refuse to believe im getting totally screwed over and the tables are 20% for each race.

i have done about 62 incubations so far (found by using the breed mods, slightly incorrect due to i transmuted some and i have found some. im using 62 from this day forward and will continue to update the math when i have a moment to do so.

 

this now results in 99.99990% (1-(0.8^61)) chance of getting it (LOOK AT THAT NUMBER!) this is with 20% with each race 

99.85444% (1-(0.9^61)) of getting a chesa from 62 incubations with 10% "drop" rate 

95.84220% (1-(0.95^61)) of getting a chesa from 62 incubations with 5% "drop" rate

46.37318% (1-(0.99^61)) of getting a chesa from 62 incubations with 1% "drop" rate

 

getting hit by both the Egg RNG and the race RNG is a bit much

 

there is also the problem with time spent and credits.

Time:

time spent depends on your luck. i (think) avarage around 1 egg per hour, and then we have to farm the argon for the incubator, add another 20 min to the count (1 argon per survival is not too much to ask). so 80 mins total per day, multiply that by 62 and we get 4960 mins or 82 hours and 40 minutes spent on farming for eggs and argon

You said that you dont like us running the same thing over and over, well i have run Pacific on Earth over 1000 times for eggs doing this

 

Credits:

each kubrow costs 100k for the incubator core + the 25k for airlock cleaning for a grand total of 125k credits

thats 7 750 000 credits spent on crafting and airlock cleaner.

[joke]At this rate i expect the chesa to autofarm for me, kill everything that looks at me and buff my shields and health to godlike proportions.[/joke]

 

 

Current chesa situation: none as per 10.10.15

tl;dr: underscored text

EDITs

EDIT1: I CANT COUNT DAYS ITS ACTUALLY 35 GONNA FIX MATH

EDIT2: FIX'd

EDIT3: Still no chesa kubrow as of 16.09.15 

 

EDIT4: *Removed*

EDIT 5, 07.10.15: Updated math to be more in line with current situation.

EDIT 6: added time and credits spent.

 

purchase 2 gene templates for the kubrow you want.

 

Rng is Rng.

[Kaisty]

Drop tables are bad? RNG generator is bad?

Answer is very simple:

RNG _by_desing_ is BAD.

It is simple mechanic, easy to implement and use.. and it's overused in many games (not only mmo).

Lets do some math:

Assume that:

- we have perfect RNG generator

- each incubation is completely random (e.g. does not depends on previous incubations)

- all 5 kubrows have same chance (20%). (yeah.. right.. it's probably <5% :P)

Now.. what is chance of getting Chesa kubrow:

- in 1 incubation: 20% (thats obvious)

- in 2 incubations: 1-(1-0,2)^2 = 0,36 (36%) (that's less obvious - many people think "40%")

- in 3 incubations: 1-(1-0,2)^3 = 0,488 (48,8%)

- in 10 incubations: 1-(1-0,2)^10 ~= 0,8926 (~89,26%)

- in 30 incubations: 1-(1-0,2)^30 ~= 0,99876 (~99,876%)

You may think, that 99,876% is very big chance.. its almost sure that you get chesa..

and.. you are right.

But.. put this numbers in context.

Chance 99,876% means that.. per 10'000 players.. there will be 12 unlucky ones that do not get chesa in 30 incubations!

Even if every kubrow has same chance, and it is quote big: 20% per incubation!

But what if chance is lower (10%)? (it probably is)

Result: 95,761% chance for chesa in 30 incubations.. so per 10'000 players.. ~424 will be unlucky.

With 5% chance: 78,536% in 30 incubations.. 2146 unlucky players per 10'000

It is also: 99,408% chance in... 100 incubations!.. that means 59 per 10'000 players will so unlucky that will not get this kubrow.. after 100 incubations!

And.. you must realize.. that 5% chance.. is.. big! In good-old-days when drop tables were not encrypted, you can see some void drops with 0,5%.

According to wiki DE still has very bad habit to use extremally small chances (see http://warframe.wikia.com/wiki/Nightmare_Mode and drop chance of some nightmare mods: 0,670%. LOL).

So.. I won't be suprised, that chesa has lower chance that 5%.

But.. as I already said: EVEN with 20% chance, some unlucky players won't get it after 30 incubations.

And.. with such large playerbase (certainly larger than 10'000 used in those examples), such bad thing will happens.. BY DESIGN!

 

While this is true if the entire system is pure RNG, DE just needs to learn how to add in an insurance policy into the coding for this game so problems like this do not occur. For example (and extreme case if you will), if a player makes 1-5 kubrows and keeps throwing a certain types out the airlock, then the game could remove / lower the chance of the dominant kubrow variants showing up for the next set of 5. 6-10 = removes or lowers the non required variants to very low chances while boosting the others. 11 - 15 = knocks it down to only two left and if somehow the player reaches 20 kubrows in a short time without the variant they need, they get to choose the variant they want because they get a special non-tradeable DNA device that creates the version they want.

 

While that works for such things as kubrows, sadly the only option for everything else that is "RNG based" would be converting everything else (prime parts, special mods, etc) into a token system which would sadly cut down on the trading because if somebody wants a new prime / item to build, they can just farm for the token and buy it.

[321agemo]

to all the people wanting to give me imprints: i dont need them (ty for the offer), i am doing this to show DE once and for all that true random is broken and unfair, and that we need pseudo-random distribution. 

 

true random gives you a % of a pool of infinite times done, now what happens if all of the times i am going to get a chesa is at the end?

 

Pseudo-random increases your chances everytime you dont get it and will prevent this form of RNG screw-over

 

For the three people who are going to be more interested about the difference:

link to the same system in another game (dota 2): Pseudo-random

 

<--- got 6 chesa with random incubation. i've stopped breeding any for the last....month? i got bored of breeding more. i might be siphoning ur RNG lol.

 

 

 

purchase 2 gene templates for the kubrow you want.

 

Rng is Rng.

 

that's not what OP is set out trying to do.

[(PSN)Raikeran]

Is Chesa even that good? A serious question because I cannot fathom why you would spend such an immense amount of time and resources for one Kubrow.