GoneBlank Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 @Adaptor-Face. I think we can currently safely say two things. (third thing below is just my opinion) 1. The drop rate on Chesa is lower than the other breeds. My guess would be in the vicinity of 5%. 2. The math associated with the implications of this is now reasonably well cross-checked; see https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/494054-the-math-of-farming/. For example, if my 5% chance is a reasonable estimate then you might be looking at 44 runs to have a 90% chance of getting your Chesa. Note that is not a guarantee....just a 90% chance. As you say, all your previous fails have nothing to do with your odds next incubation. 3. I think your project is an exercise in futility - ultimately the only thing you are doing is destroying your enjoyment of the game. I find the topic of psychology of rewards (i.e. drops) very interesting. The reason i.i.d. (independent and identically distributed) drops persists is because it has been shown to be one of the most successful methods of extending game play. Ironically your current project seems to support this view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalesNexus Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I concede with the point that DE needs to seriously improve this part of RNG for obtaining the type of kubrows or provide alternate method of obtaining it. Hoping someday, they fix it this part as well in the upcoming update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mak_Gohae Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 (edited) that's not what OP is set out trying to do. He is setting out to point at the EXTREMELY OBVIOUS if a F2P game. You going the free path? Prepare to wait. This is not a sub game, i repeat, this is not a sub game. And on top of that, in sub games there are things that have this ridiculous low drop rate. In all the time i spent in WoW i never got the little green dragon pet. You are not making a point when you are playing a F2P game. Specially when through normal play you can get plat and actually get the animal you want. Eggs sell for 10 plat, right? That's one rare mod. The DNA bp could sell for 30 if you dont care about colors or patterns. You are have 3 options to get this pet. 1. all free. Which is, of course, going to take longer. 2. Farming and selling. May take a bit of time. 3. Purchasing it. As quick as the plat gets into the account. It's up to you how long you want to spend on it. Edited October 12, 2015 by Mak_Gohae Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karamethien Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Just got mine last night. 1/18 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gen.KiTeer Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 (edited) You are have 3 options to get this pet. 1. all free. Which is, of course, going to take longer. 2. Farming and selling. May take a bit of time. 3. Purchasing it. As quick as the plat gets into the account. It's up to you how long you want to spend on it. ^ this.. i bought chesa 2 imprints for 30p each, one week after release.. have a chesa since then. the 30p were traded plat. Edited October 12, 2015 by CruelMaiden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atom Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I'm seriously starting to wonder if something is wrong with their random number generator at this point, we could potentially have another Asheron's Call situation where some players have seeds which are much better than others. It seems more and more likely as I play the game and interact with other players. I have friends who are the "lucky" ones and those who can't ever seem to get anything. We know that the drop tables are weighted, and that very rarely does DE ever give us fair chances on new things. But even considering that, the amount of times I've run void missions and gotten the same drops in the same order over and over again, and the screen shots and stories I see and hear from other players makes we wonder if they actually have a really bad PRNG or just a terrible implementation. to anyone saying RNG is RNG please think about this for a second. IMO it's not so much about the RNG layer but about how it's applied and the seed. Like the above poster i also have friends that seem to be extremely lucky all across the board all the time (rare resources, mods, parts etc) and others that are unlucky most of the time. IMHO it all boils down to this seed. fun story: after spending ~1000p on various things in the game and market my usually unlucky status did a 180 and i was extremely lucky all across the board. i got rare resources from extractors almost every day for about a week (this after running them nonstop since they came out and usually getting rare resources 1/mo at best), got almost all the new prime parts in less then 10 runs each. idk if there's any relation with the spending but damn it's very strange to say the least. my luck ran out abruptly while i was farming t4keys on jupiter interception (first few runs i did getting 10+ NS / 4rounds ... after that 0-2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adaptor-Face Posted October 12, 2015 Author Share Posted October 12, 2015 You are have 3 options to get this pet. 1. all free. Which is, of course, going to take longer. 2. Farming and selling. May take a bit of time. 3. Purchasing it. As quick as the plat gets into the account. It's up to you how long you want to spend on it. not a solution, its a band aid fix from the players. If it was sold finished in the market this would be another story, but as it is now you PUNISH an unlucky player by FOCING HIM/HER to REWARD a lucky player. not a good system. @Adaptor-Face. I think we can currently safely say two things. (third thing below is just my opinion) 1. The drop rate on Chesa is lower than the other breeds. My guess would be in the vicinity of 5%. 2. The math associated with the implications of this is now reasonably well cross-checked; see https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/494054-the-math-of-farming/. For example, if my 5% chance is a reasonable estimate then you might be looking at 44 runs to have a 90% chance of getting your Chesa. Note that is not a guarantee....just a 90% chance. As you say, all your previous fails have nothing to do with your odds next incubation. 3. I think your project is an exercise in futility - ultimately the only thing you are doing is destroying your enjoyment of the game. I find the topic of psychology of rewards (i.e. drops) very interesting. The reason i.i.d. (independent and identically distributed) drops persists is because it has been shown to be one of the most successful methods of extending game play. Ironically your current project seems to support this view. 1: <5% is a good estimate 2: i am well aware of this, but you cant throw my math out the window either, you need to look at both numbers at the same time 3: IDC really i am well aware of F2P mechanics, and ways to keep me playing. this neither keeps me playing nor makes me not want to play. 80+ hours for a singular generic item which is spaced out with a 24 hour "cooldown" should bother any dev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mak_Gohae Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 (edited) not a solution, its a band aid fix from the players. Call it what you want, there are 2 options that guarantee the dog you want. If it was sold finished in the market this would be another story, but as it is now you PUNISH an unlucky player by FOCING HIM/HER to REWARD a lucky player. not a good system. It's a F2P game. It seems like this has not sunk into certain people's head. If you are going for a totally free option be prepared to wait. And i dont know why you would do that since through standard play you should be able to get enough plat to guarantee the dog you want. You are not being punished you are playing a free-to-play game. BTW, you do know that you can get 2 DNA prints from the dog you buy and sell them to some one else, right? You can even sell them for profit. All the prints from the dogs created in this test could've been sold and you could've actually bought some rare color Chesa Kubrow. Edited October 12, 2015 by Mak_Gohae Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoneBlank Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 @Adaptor-Face: it sounds like you are determined to do things the hard-way. Fair enough - your choice. One thing I have said before and I will say again (and again....and again....): There should be broad classifications of item rarity (e.g., ultra-rare, rare, uncommon, common) that actually corresponds to said item's drop chance. This can give players realistic expectations on how they want to approach acquiring an item. Example numbers: common (<20%), uncommon (<10%), rare (<5%), ultra-rare (<2.5%). I really don't care about the name of these labels or the exact values - the idea is just to have a scheme to let players make informed decisions. I think what caused a lot of people to get angry with respect to Chesa was the assumption that kubrow breed chances were equally weighted. So much plat and credits were spent buying eggs, rushing and consigning - with the view that you would probably get the Chesa within a dozen attempts. Best of luck in your quest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlapClown Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 (edited) I feel you OP i just made one tonight after all this time but this game still treats me better than any pay or f2p game ever has Edited October 13, 2015 by SlapClown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arKRazor Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I'm packing in the hunt at 20. It's just not worth the time and disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaverickZero Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I never got a Chesa from random incubation and that's over the same period as the OP. It feels like the original Forma droprate (look it up on reddit). Buying the prints from the lucky raffle winners is the only reasonable way. -irrelevant- You were so opposed to the idea that they fix the [Trinity] Prime Access packages. You must have got real mad when they fixed them. We can't have nice things because of people like you. Doesn't matter if unfair or unethical, you will always support it. Good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Judgebanks Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 The grind sucks, and I hate it. -Steve Sinclair Thanks Sheldon. Let me know when we get those crazy bosses that are hard to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mak_Gohae Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 You were so opposed to the idea that they fix the [Trinity] Prime Access packages. I wasnt opposed i just think it wasnt necessary because the access pack brought the same amount of cosmetics it has always had. I even gave the idea that they should bring the kit on the next PA and put it on the access pack. You must have got real mad when they fixed them. No. This doesnt affect me in any way. We can't have nice things because of people like you. Doesn't matter if unfair or unethical, you will always support it. Good job. There is nothing unfair or unethical about nothing in both these situations. I gave in both situations several options to a solution. The only thing i see from this posts is that there are some people that get a thrill out of popping what they want. It must be some kind of gambling thing. People here are calling the amount of times the created a Kubrow to show how bad it is. When i hear that i just see plat. Seriously, 63 kubs selling both print at 10p each, which is extremely cheap, would've given him 630 plat. With that he could've bought 2 rare color Chesas. Some one just mentioned stopping at 20. At 10 each that's 200plat. That's one rare color Chesa. Actually, you should sell them for 20 at least so you can purchase an egg. The solution to your dilemma is there if you really want the dog. I REEEALLY hope that he got prints out of each Kub cause if he didn't he threw away a lot of plat. Now, if you are some gambler ... sorry but i have no answer to that. But im pretty sure the odds here to get what you want arent the worst in the world when it comes to getting something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Judgebanks Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 (edited) There is nothing unfair or unethical about nothing in both these situations. I gave in both situations several options to a solution. The only thing i see from this posts is that there are some people that get a thrill out of popping what they want. It must be some kind of gambling thing. People here are calling the amount of times the created a Kubrow to show how bad it is. When i hear that i just see plat. Seriously, 63 kubs selling both print at 10p each, which is extremely cheap, would've given him 630 plat. With that he could've bought 2 rare color Chesas. Some one just mentioned stopping at 20. At 10 each that's 200plat. That's one rare color Chesa. Actually, you should sell them for 20 at least so you can purchase an egg. The solution to your dilemma is there if you really want the dog. I REEEALLY hope that he got prints out of each Kub cause if he didn't he threw away a lot of plat. Now, if you are some gambler ... sorry but i have no answer to that. But im pretty sure the odds here to get what you want arent the worst in the world when it comes to getting something. Creating game systems that prey on gambling addicts is not considered unethical. Okay. Edited October 13, 2015 by Judgebanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaisty Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I concede with the point that DE needs to seriously improve this part of RNG for obtaining the type of kubrows or provide alternate method of obtaining it. Hoping someday, they fix it this part as well in the upcoming update. The only ways I see that they can fix it is either setup a system that looks into each players kubrow drop rates and consigns list and alters their next choice to lesser spawning type or just change the drop rates to 100/ K = drop rate of Kubrows (where K is the number of Kubrow types to choose from.) As of right now, most folks wished the drop rate was 20% per kubrow, but sadly DE decided to run the numbers the way they felt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mak_Gohae Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Creating game systems that prey on gambling addicts is not considered unethical. Okay. Kay but this isnt one. Low drop rate stuff is all over the game in all online games. On top of that, you are actually getting money from each try. If you bother to make and sell the prints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vomder Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Unsurprising that new content has garbage drop rates, also unsurprising to see blind followers as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PnOyLeeT Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Sharing is Caring : i can say i was one of the first batch of people selling gold lotus chesa in first week of U17 in trade forum.. i had nothing but chesa on first week all lotus and all bulky for the rest of the 1st month.. selling each for 800 -1.2k plat after a month i stopped breeding so i got like 15 empty chamber now aside my 5 priced lotus kubs for myself beside after one month the price for bulky lotus chesa dropped.. i understand if u guys wanna do it the hard way and avoid spending plat on lotus to breed them but while u guys experimenting and wasting time to RNG breeder will always get the most out of it..its very simple to breed..u can replicate 1 lotus into 2 if ur lucky so heres how i do it incase any of u wanna breed in future,,i dont mix lotus with any stripe breed..something to do with dominance i usually do it with patchy , merle , hound everything else is irrelevant to me..not even domino makes my list this is if im mixing a lotus with non lotus and they are different breed left template usually i put the pattern the size right template usually i put the colors breed again this is how i breed mine...and i find more success and failures at the same time...so dont blame me if ur unlucky hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kastorius Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 All this hubbub, but the answer is simple and obvious: Chesa newest doge. Most dedicated players will already have at least one of the other four breeds. Make Chesa rare in order to encourage more platinum being spent on eggs and rushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanist Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Got Chesa on my first egg attempt after the patch, been copying and sharing the template with all my clan mates, make one, template it, pass on, repeat. Sorry you got boned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoomFruit Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 also i just realised that i have used 750 000+ credits ON CONSIGNING ALONEThis right here is why I'm not even going to bother trying. Not only do you have to grind your face off for the chance to roll dice uphill, but you have to actively pay for each failed attempt?And when you combine that with kubrows being complete S#&$e in general, with this one being particularly poopy, I have no motivation to even try. I've no idea how much effort the art, sound and AI people put into this particular item, but the "efforts" of the RNG master mean that I'm not even going to pretend to look at your work. Same goes for the Knux, the research costs for which are so expensive, and the stats so mediocre, that nobody in my clan cares about putting anything in for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kastorius Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 It's a shame Kubrows are broken and that DE seems to believe they're fine as-is, because they're pretty cool in terms of art, animation, and sound. How many videos do people need to make before DE acknowledges there's a problem, I wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mak_Gohae Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 This right here is why I'm not even going to bother trying. Not only do you have to grind your face off for the chance to roll dice uphill, but you have to actively pay for each failed attempt? And when you combine that with kubrows being complete S#&$e in general, with this one being particularly poopy, I have no motivation to even try. I've no idea how much effort the art, sound and AI people put into this particular item, but the "efforts" of the RNG master mean that I'm not even going to pretend to look at your work. Same goes for the Knux, the research costs for which are so expensive, and the stats so mediocre, that nobody in my clan cares about putting anything in for it. If you sell the prints made from the kubrows you can use that plat to buy credits from the market. They sell credits, right? Or get a credit boosters. You are actually losing nothing from continued breeding of Kubrows. The only argument here is for people that want the thrill of hatching the dog. Nothing else around it has a serious detriment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PublikDomain Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 If you sell the prints made from the kubrows you can use that plat to buy credits from the market. They sell credits, right? Or get a credit boosters. You are actually losing nothing from continued breeding of Kubrows. The only argument here is for people that want the thrill of hatching the dog. Nothing else around it has a serious detriment. I find it hard to believe you can get much plat for generic kubrows. "WTS normal Kubrow with nothing special" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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