Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Adaptor-Face

71 "failed" Incubation Trying To Get Chesa, Been Trying Since U17 Launch

Recommended Posts

I got confirmation from a DE staff member that it is, indeed, bugged, and that a fix will come in an upcoming hotfix. Until then, you can stop breeding

 

I'd really love a verified post about this.

 

And also some information on compensation for all those flushed kubrows. Seriously, I've created my own frozen kubrow asteroid field in orbit around Earth. I've wasted countless hours farming, countless piles of 25k credits jettisoning, countless stacks of 100k credits on power cores, and will need hair replacement therapy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hate to say this, but I heard that they kinda suck

They do, I got mine on 3rd try (lucky me) and a Lotus variant too, the problem is they are S#&$ retrievers they are the worst type from all Kubrow kinds. So mine is just frozen and that's it. It either new AI or give him a vacuum, the way they are now they are horrible. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good luck OP. Thanks for this thread and your painful dedication. I'm pretty sure that DE made the drops like that so they could cash one some monies though. Sure, it's a F2P game, but do you honestly think Warframe would be hurting as a game if the RNG was cut a bit less? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got confirmation from a DE staff member that it is, indeed, bugged, and that a fix will come in an upcoming hotfix. Until then, you can stop breeding

Nice. i have updated the OP with the latest numbers (not like it matters anyway but meh) and will halt breeding until hotfix is pushed (tomorrow most likley). and then probably make another section in the OP on my prgress after it has been fixed (seperated from the rest).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Chesa Drops are confirmed to be Bugged, post up on Reddit.

 

Oh really, now where and when have we heard that before in regards to drops? That's right the void tables and the reason drop tables are now encrypted, so players can't hold de accountable. I'm surprised they've actually admitted to it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi, i just want to say that your math are false. But here is the explanation :

 

You have done 71 try so far so what you want is to get a Chesa from one try or another. This correspond to P(A u B)  {read probability of A or B}. P(A u B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A n B) {Read probability of A and B}.

 

In you case, A and B are "getting a Chesa at the Nth try".  A and B are independant so P(A n B) = P(A) x P(B).

 

This lead us to P(A u B) = P(A) + P(B) - [P(A) x P(B)].

 

Now the numerical application :

 

Let's call P(Cn) the probability of getting a Chesa at the nth try. And let's suppose that the probability of getting a Chesa on an incubation is 20%.

 

P(Chesa) = P(C1 u C2 u C3 u .... C71)

                = 0,2 + 0,2 + .... 0,2 - (0,2 x 0,2 x ...)

                = (71 x 0,2) - 0,2^71

                ~ 14,2 %

 

Sorry if this is complicated, i just love math ^^.

 

EDIT : All of this is false, don't mind reading it. >.>

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi, i just want to say that your math are false. But here is the explanation :

 

You have done 71 try so far so what you want is to get a Chesa from one try or another. This correspond to P(A u B)  {read probability of A or B}. P(A u B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A n B) {Read probability of A and B}.

 

In you case, A and B are "getting a Chesa at the Nth try".  A and B are independant so P(A n B) = P(A) x P(B).

 

This lead us to P(A u B) = P(A) + P(B) - [P(A) x P(B)].

 

Now the numerical application :

 

Let's call P(Cn) the probability of getting a Chesa at the nth try. And let's suppose that the probability of getting a Chesa on an incubation is 20%.

 

P(Chesa) = P(C1 u C2 u C3 u .... C71)

                = 0,2 + 0,2 + .... 0,2 - (0,2 x 0,2 x ...)

                = (71 x 0,2) - 0,2^71

                ~ 14,2 %

 

Sorry if this is complicated, i just love math ^^.

according to this my chance for a chesa gets reduced for every attempt (you start with 20% and end up with 14,2% wut?) so you need either to explain and present your math better.

 

also care to explain how im wrong? i calculate the probabiltiy of not getting a chesa 71 times in a row then flip it around to get the mathematical chance for getting a chesa in 71 attempts. (probabiltity is not my strongest side, and if i am wrong i would like to learn)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't mind things that are cosmetic being random as far as Kubrows go, but we should be able to pick the damn breed. We get to pick what Sentinel we want to craft based on the blueprint we buy, so why can't Kubrows be like that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't mind things that are cosmetic being random as far as Kubrows go, but we should be able to pick the damn breed. We get to pick what Sentinel we want to craft based on the blueprint we buy, so why can't Kubrows be like that?

That's what gene masking kits are for, albeit being much more of a pain to obtain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If it is truly bugged, do think they'll attempt to recompense players? This reeks of the Forma bullS#&$ of yore.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's a chance that anyone with 5+ incubations would get some Kubrow related stuff (stabilizers, egg and a battery, maybe a bunch of credits) but I wouldn't really hope for anything more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Chesa Drops are confirmed to be Bugged, post up on Reddit.

Is this actually confirmed by DE, like officially?

Coz I wasted a shed load of credits on power cores and consigning before I gave up and bought the prints.

Tad annoying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice. i have updated the OP with the latest numbers (not like it matters anyway but meh) and will halt breeding until hotfix is pushed (tomorrow most likley). and then probably make another section in the OP on my prgress after it has been fixed (seperated from the rest).

 

I'd suggest we wait for a proper DE announcement. The word of a random forum poster doesn't carry enough weight for me.

 

The Chesa Drops are confirmed to be Bugged, post up on Reddit.

 

Also not a DE source, so also next to useless.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi, i just want to say that your math are false. But here is the explanation :

 

You have done 71 try so far so what you want is to get a Chesa from one try or another. This correspond to P(A u B)  {read probability of A or B}. P(A u B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A n B) {Read probability of A and B}.

 

In you case, A and B are "getting a Chesa at the Nth try".  A and B are independant so P(A n B) = P(A) x P(B).

 

This lead us to P(A u B) = P(A) + P(B) - [P(A) x P(B)].

 

Now the numerical application :

 

Let's call P(Cn) the probability of getting a Chesa at the nth try. And let's suppose that the probability of getting a Chesa on an incubation is 20%.

 

P(Chesa) = P(C1 u C2 u C3 u .... C71)

                = 0,2 + 0,2 + .... 0,2 - (0,2 x 0,2 x ...)

                = (71 x 0,2) - 0,2^71

                ~ 14,2 %

 

Sorry if this is complicated, i just love math ^^.

 

 

I'm sure you love math, but you're doing this wrong. He's doing the math right. You apparently think that the general form of the inclusion-exclusion principal is the same for any number of sets as it is for two, which is not how it works. You appear to have an introductory understanding of probability since you were unable recognize that the way he's setting it up is correct and the easiest way to find the solution.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is this actually confirmed by DE, like officially?

Coz I wasted a shed load of credits on power cores and consigning before I gave up and bought the prints.

Tad annoying.

 

I'd suggest we wait for a proper DE announcement. The word of a random forum poster doesn't carry enough weight for me.

 

 

Also not a DE source, so also next to useless.

Someone got a response from de. 

 

They are very unlikely to admit it publicly here due to the way it was discovered was via datamining. Them admitting it was a bug would be equivalent of saying that they were wrong to ban datamining. They will likely silently patch it and unless there is a massive S#&$storm over it no response will occur.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 
 

Someone got a response from de. 

 

They are very unlikely to admit it publicly here due to the way it was discovered was via datamining. Them admitting it was a bug would be equivalent of saying that they were wrong to ban datamining. They will likely silently patch it and unless there is a massive S#&$storm over it no response will occur.

 

 

We didn't really need to datamine anything to see that something was wrong, he's done it 71 times, if the chances were fair, then he's got a 20% chance of a Chesa each time. The chance of him doing it 71 times and not getting a single Chesa is 00.00001%. At that point you can be pretty sure that there's something wrong. Along with all the reports of myriads of other players never getting a Chesa as well, it's safe to say that DE should have been able to tell that something was wrong from that alone.

 

Knowing this it's most likely that the drop table for those with the upgrade doesn't include the Chesa at all. And I'm sure DE has looked into it and found that to be the case. We'll probably get an alert with a kubrow egg as an apology, when instead I'd like them to have a little diligence and test things before they release them all full of bugs and not even working at all. This is supposed to be our "year of quality", I'm sure they don't regret saying that at all... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We didn't really need to datamine anything to see that something was wrong, he's done it 71 times, if the chances were fair, then he's got a 20% chance of a Chesa each time. The chance of him doing it 71 times and not getting a single Chesa is 00.00001%. At that point you can be pretty sure that there's something wrong. Along with all the reports of myriads of other players never getting a Chesa as well, it's safe to say that DE should have been able to tell that something was wrong from that alone.

The person discovered there were two chance tables for kubrows that is what the problem the datamining discovered.

 

One of those tables is the old one without the chesa in it. Without proper evidence that there really is a bug DE can wave it off as merely rng.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The person discovered there were two chance tables for kubrows that is what the problem the datamining discovered.

 

One of those tables is the old one without the chesa in it. Without proper evidence that there really is a bug DE can wave it off as merely rng.

 

They really can't wave it off as RNG though, at that point either something is seriously wrong with the rng code or there's something wrong with the drop table. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some statistician tell me what the odds are of two people out of, say, 10,000 both not getting a 20% drop chance in 70 attempts. Then 5 people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some statistician tell me what the odds are of two people out of, say, 10,000 both not getting a 20% drop chance in 70 attempts. Then 5 people.

 

I am a statistician and I'm telling you that seeing seventy runs and not getting it is near damning evidence that something is horribly wrong. Your argument is sound, yes, this is something that can happen, and it is indeed guaranteed to eventually happen to someone eventually, but supposing that the pseudo-random number generator is equidistributed this is not something we really want to see. And the fact that there a many people reporting that they've bred many kubrows and still haven't gotten a chesa is even more evidence on top. 

 

At that point I would conclude that they were either using a really S#&$ty linear congruent generator that should have been replaced long ago, or that something is wrong with the drop table. In a game like this I'm not sure you'd even want the generator to be a really good approximation of true randomness, because that's how you'd get rare cases like +70 tries without the sought after reward. What they really want is something with just the right amount of forced equidistribution so that players don't ever experience this type of true unluckiness.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Chesa Drops are confirmed to be Bugged, post up on Reddit.

 

So what's the bug?

Cause if the bug is a very low drop rate, that's not really a bug.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...