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Adaptor-Face

71 "failed" Incubation Trying To Get Chesa, Been Trying Since U17 Launch

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So what's the bug?

Cause if the bug is a very low drop rate, that's not really a bug.

Two separate drop tables, one that allows for Chesa to equally be obtained, the other where Chesa doesn't appear to be entered into the table.

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I am a statistician and I'm telling you that seeing seventy runs and not getting it is near damning evidence that something is horribly wrong. Your argument is sound, yes, this is something that can happen, and it is indeed guaranteed to eventually happen to someone eventually, but supposing that the pseudo-random number generator is equidistributed this is not something we really want to see. And the fact that there a many people reporting that they've bred many kubrows and still haven't gotten a chesa is even more evidence on top. 

 

At that point I would conclude that they were either using a really S#&$ty linear congruent generator that should have been replaced long ago, or that something is wrong with the drop table. In a game like this I'm not sure you'd even want the generator to be a really good approximation of true randomness, because that's how you'd get rare cases like +70 tries without the sought after reward. What they really want is something with just the right amount of forced equidistribution so that players don't ever experience this type of true unluckiness.

 

I'm on your side here, I'm one of the people affected. Just trying to convince the "It's RNG!" crowd that no, by now it's not RNG.

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If the DE staffer named in that thread really has confirmed it, then the least he can do is post that here. I refuse to get my hopes up based on unconfirmed "he said she said" stuff. As Mother Theresa said: "I've been on the internet too long to fall for those kinds of goat droppings."

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So.. it's not a good idea to try and breed a chesa now?

It is kinda impossible to get random Chesa if you have the upgrade installed as apparently, it uses pre-Chesa Kubrow table.

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I'm sure you love math, but you're doing this wrong. He's doing the math right. You apparently think that the general form of the inclusion-exclusion principal is the same for any number of sets as it is for two, which is not how it works. You appear to have an introductory understanding of probability since you were unable recognize that the way he's setting it up is correct and the easiest way to find the solution.

 

You may be right. I'm gonna take a look again at my lesson and recalculate this.

 

EDIT : Actually he was right. I forgot to consider that this coul follow a binomial law. I'll go learning my probability again, sorry for my stupidity ^^".

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It is kinda impossible to get random Chesa if you have the upgrade installed as apparently, it uses pre-Chesa Kubrow table.

 

damn... that's bad.

It also explains why there are hardly any chesa offers on the trade post.

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Still waiting for official confirmation from DE (here, not some hearsay post on reddit). This issue is a major contributor to me having shelved the game for now, so getting info is a high priority for me.

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It is kinda impossible to get random Chesa if you have the upgrade installed as apparently, it uses pre-Chesa Kubrow table.

 

I have upgraded Incubator installed, got it on my 17th try.  So it is possible.

 

That can't be the bug.

 

[Edit]

 

Ah I bought that egg from Market, guess that is why.

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The fact that a "kubrow egg" bought from the market, was different in any way from a "kubrow egg" found from a den, is incredibly sneaky and underhanded. My trust level has gone way down. Weighted RNG is excruciating and terrible practice, you put an item with the exact same name in the market, it should have the exact same odds, otherwise it should have a different name.

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The fact that a "kubrow egg" bought from the market, was different in any way from a "kubrow egg" found from a den, is incredibly sneaky and underhanded. My trust level has gone way down.

 

It was a bug.

Plus the egg was 10 plat, it's not like that's that hard to get.

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It was a bug.

Plus the egg was 10 plat, it's not like that's that hard to get.

 

It's a bug, but theres 2 separate instances of the same item. The fact that its not a consolidated item shows the intent to have different odds for items bought in the market vs items found in game. Think. Just try and imagine how dangerous a precedent that is.

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Another drop table problem.

 

Maybe someone else should be in charge of the drop tables, given the frequency of issues involving them?

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It's a bug, but theres 2 separate instances of the same item. The fact that its not a consolidated item shows the intent to have different odds for items bought in the market vs items found in game. Think. Just try and imagine how dangerous a precedent that is.

this stinks so bad

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It's a bug, but theres 2 separate instances of the same item. The fact that its not a consolidated item shows the intent to have different odds for items bought in the market vs items found in game. Think. Just try and imagine how dangerous a precedent that is.

 

Of course it's not a consolidated item.

The spawn from the market is one entry and the spawn from Earth is another entry.

It's the same item but its two entries because they spawn from completely different locations.

It has nothing to do with odds.

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Well the alert is up. Couple of chesa imprints and 10k credit reward. 40% of the cost of merely flushing even ONE of my aborted attempts. Laughable.

 

Cost me 125k times 60 at least to try and get this f'ing dog.

 

7.5 million credits, plus the hours spent grinding an unchallenging and unrewarding map for eggs.

 

Congrats DE. This is why I've quit. No wonder why I haven't seen any DE staff mention the "year of quality" for a while.

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Of course it's not a consolidated item.

The spawn from the market is one entry and the spawn from Earth is another entry.

It's the same item but its two entries because they spawn from completely different locations.

It has nothing to do with odds.

 

You've completely missed the point.

 

His point is that the egg from the Market is a different item and that therefore the odds of hatching a desirable Kubrow/fur pattern from a Market-purchased egg, as opposed to an Earth-dropped egg, may very well be different.

 

Do you understand now?

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