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The fake 100% status chance


Heliopata
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This is mostly for people using rivens, since i think the alredy known 100% status weapons using our current mods are working as intended.

If a weapon reachs 100% status, all the bullets/pellets will proc a status at the same time. 

Story time (You can skip directly to the TL;DR):

Spoiler

I rolled an akjagara riven with +damage +electric and +130.3 status chance and for the lols, i slaped all the elemental/status mods entering the sacred domain of 100%status. Damage and armor shredding on my fav weapon, what a nice day.

The next day i got an almost godlike roll on the Akbronco: +Multshot + Status chance + Heat -Status duration (So close), made a build with 2 dual stat elementals and decide to take one out. It still got 100% but it was red, pretty wierd. Checked it on the warframe builder 99.967 status chance. Well whatever, decide to test it on the simulacrum and the diference was night and day. 2 shots would make armor disapear (Some high level bombard, dont remember) and the "100% status" one would take  a few mags. 

After running around some missions i sold it to make some room, but the doubt stayed.

I decide to test an akbronco with 100% against 99.997% status chance (Which on the arsenal shows as 100%):

Spoiler

ecxBQMB.jpg

Against a  lvl 145 Bombards

100% status took around 7-10 rounds to strip it from armour

99.997% Status took around 15-20 rounds even though it had more corrosive.

TL;DR : The Arsenal round up centecimals and shows you 100%,but it doesnt actuallly work like one (Multiple procs per shot). You can check your 100% status builds on warframe builder.

The diference is night and day for armour shredding on no so fast fire rate weapons, pretty niche now that i think about it.

P.S: RIP akjagara 100% status dreams, 0.036% too far.

Edited by Heliopata
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Though man that's only for shotguns - for your Akjagara even a 70% status would be amazing, and you got 99+%...

The weid thing you're describing is due to the fact that shotguns give you their status chance considered with their innate multishot (the pellets) and thus going from 99.99% to 100% is a huge difference. On normal guns you wouldn't know any difference really.

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This is well known, and makes perfect sense mathematically. But there is another, less well-known issue. Multishot does not actually increase the per-pellet status chance, so if you don't have 100% status before you put on multishot, then you don't have it after. But rounding errors can cause the arsenal to show 100% chance even though it's really not. So in order to ensure you have a true 100% status build, you have to take off all mutlishot. If you're using a riven with status and multishot, then you'll need to remove it and do math to work out what the status chance would be with only that status buff from the mod. It's too easy to be fooled by multishot into thinking that you have a 100% status build when you really don't.

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7 minutes ago, Autongnosis said:

Though man that's only for shotguns - for your Akjagara even a 70% status would be amazing, and you got 99+%...

The weid thing you're describing is due to the fact that shotguns give you their status chance considered with their innate multishot (the pellets) and thus going from 99.99% to 100% is a huge difference. On normal guns you wouldn't know any difference really.

Test it on my Daikyu, 100%status  and got 2 procs per shot.

4 minutes ago, Azrael said:

This is well known, and makes perfect sense mathematically. But there is another, less well-known issue. Multishot does not actually increase the per-pellet status chance, so if you don't have 100% status before you put on multishot, then you don't have it after. But rounding errors can cause the arsenal to show 100% chance even though it's really not. So in order to ensure you have a true 100% status build, you have to take off all mutlishot. If you're using a riven with status and multishot, then you'll need to remove it and do math to work out what the status chance would be with only that status buff from the mod. It's too easy to be fooled by multishot into thinking that you have a 100% status build when you really don't.

Thats really nice to know.

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9 minutes ago, Autongnosis said:

Though man that's only for shotguns - for your Akjagara even a 70% status would be amazing, and you got 99+%...

The weid thing you're describing is due to the fact that shotguns give you their status chance considered with their innate multishot (the pellets) and thus going from 99.99% to 100% is a huge difference. On normal guns you wouldn't know any difference really.

It works for anything that shoots multiple projectiles per shot. Shotguns are just like any other weapons, only that they have innate multishot. Akjagara too, have some innate multishot. Moded, they fire like 6 pellets per shot. So the same 100% status rule applies as well.

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2 minutes ago, Zeclem said:

if multishot doesnt increase status chance why arsenal shows an increased amount? i knew multishot inflates the status at arsenal but idk based on what.

It's simple. The arsenal only tells you what are the chances of proccing status per trigger pull. With multishot, you fire 2-3 projectiles per trigger pull. So, you have more chances of inflicting status, right?

That means the Arsenal isn't wrong, you do have more chance of inflicting status. But the chance per individual projectile remains the same.

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1 hour ago, -BM-Leonhart said:

It's simple. The arsenal only tells you what are the chances of proccing status per trigger pull. With multishot, you fire 2-3 projectiles per trigger pull. So, you have more chances of inflicting status, right?

That means the Arsenal isn't wrong, you do have more chance of inflicting status. But the chance per individual projectile remains the same.

oh yeah that would make perfect sense lol. sooo multishot, in practical use does give status. yay!

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5 minutes ago, Zeclem said:

oh yeah that would make perfect sense lol. sooo multishot, in practical use does give status. yay!

See it like with the relics. Say you go in a fissure mission with 4x a radiant relic. This does not make the individual relics more radiant but now the game has 4 times the chance to drop something nice. 

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16 hours ago, Zeclem said:

if multishot doesnt increase status chance why arsenal shows an increased amount? i knew multishot inflates the status at arsenal but idk based on what.

 

16 hours ago, -BM-Leonhart said:

It's simple. The arsenal only tells you what are the chances of proccing status per trigger pull. With multishot, you fire 2-3 projectiles per trigger pull. So, you have more chances of inflicting status, right?

That means the Arsenal isn't wrong, you do have more chance of inflicting status. But the chance per individual projectile remains the same.

This is correct. Status chance is displayed per shot, not per pellet. The chance per shot increases with multishot.

The confusing thing here is that there are two ways to increase status chance. The first is to increase the chance per pellet/bullet. Dual stat mods, status chance mods like rifle aptitude, and riven mods with a status chance stat all do this. The increase to per-pellet chance results in an increase to per-shot chance, and this is reflected in the arsenal.

The second way to increase status is to increase multishot. This increases per-shot status indirectly, by simply giving you more pellets and thus more chances to proc status. Thus you will see an increase in status in the arsenal, even though the per-pellet chance is the same.

Now here's the reason (the only reason) that you need to know this. It is impossible to reach 100% status solely by increasing multishot. The reasons are mathematical in nature, and there's really no reason to discuss them. But the point is that you cannot reach 100% status simply by adding more multishot. If you increase the per-pellet chance to 100%, then (and only then) will you hit 100%. This is important because the famous behavior that you see with 100% status shotguns where every pellet procs a status effect will only occur if you reach genuine 100% status. So it is possible to get really close to 100%, and get the arsenal to round and display 100%, but then not get a true 100% status build because you have been fooled by multishot and rounding errors.

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17 hours ago, Zeclem said:

if multishot doesnt increase status chance why arsenal shows an increased amount? i knew multishot inflates the status at arsenal but idk based on what.

The game is actually showing the probability of a status proc per group of bullets per trigger, not the individual status chance of each bullet. 

eg. if you have 50% base status with 100% multishot, 2 bullets will be fired with 4 possible outcomes:

proc - proc 

proc - no proc

no proc - proc

no proc - no proc

The game will read out all outcomes with at least 1 status proc occurring, that is 75% ( you can test this using the Tysis with a R5 Barrel Diffusion). The game is kinda incorrect by stating a weapon's status chance, when in fact it is its status probability. 

Edited by Agentawesome
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22 hours ago, Autongnosis said:

Though man that's only for shotguns - for your Akjagara even a 70% status would be amazing, and you got 99+%...

The weid thing you're describing is due to the fact that shotguns give you their status chance considered with their innate multishot (the pellets) and thus going from 99.99% to 100% is a huge difference. On normal guns you wouldn't know any difference really.

Akjagara and Twin Grakatas both have built-in multishot, just like shotguns do.

So getting them to 100% status would force every single bullet to proc, more than doubling proc rate.

 

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39 minutes ago, Ivan_Rid said:

Akjagara and Twin Grakatas both have built-in multishot, just like shotguns do.

So getting them to 100% status would force every single bullet to proc, more than doubling proc rate.

 

 status proc chance in a single shot divided between two pellets as its damage. no?

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22 hours ago, -BM-Leonhart said:

It works for anything that shoots multiple projectiles per shot. Shotguns are just like any other weapons, only that they have innate multishot. Akjagara too, have some innate multishot. Moded, they fire like 6 pellets per shot. So the same 100% status rule applies as well.

With this logic, would this also apply to the Cernos Prime since it has that innate multishot? I don't own it at this time but wanted to double check if the line of thinking here is correct and it's not some different story because it's a bow / projectile weapon.

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3 minutes ago, HalfDarkShadow said:

With this logic, would this also apply to the Cernos Prime since it has that innate multishot? I don't own it at this time but wanted to double check if the line of thinking here is correct and it's not some different story because it's a bow / projectile weapon.

Yep, cernos prime's damage and status is split between the initial three arrows.

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I'm posting this graph again.

dVrKhSF.png

The x-axis is the weapon status chance listed in the Arsenal without multishot accounted for. The y-axis is the status chance per pellet. The lines correspond to the number of pellets without multishot accounted for. Most weapons use the "1" line, the Cernos Prime uses the "3" line, the Tigris Prime uses the "8" line, etc.

(You can technically use the x-axis and lines both as after multishot is accounted for, but you'd obviously have to account for decimal values of pellets and rounding error from the status chance number listed in the Arsenal.)

You'll notice that the lines are very, very steep approaching 100% the more pellets your weapon has.

The Akbronco Prime has 7 pellets without multishot. To give you an idea of just how steep the line is,

  • With 100% weapon status chance (all numbers before multishot), each pellet has a 100% status chance.
  • With 99.999% weapon status chance, each pellet has an 80.7% status chance.
  • With 99.99% weapon status chance, each pellet has a 73.2% status chance.
  • With 99.9% weapon status chance, each pellet has a 62.7% status chance.
  • With 99% weapon status chance, each pellet has a 48.2% status chance.

That's right, a 0.001% drop in weapon status chance from 100% results in a 19.3% drop in pellet status chance.

Finally, here's a reminder that multishot clones pellets and therefore does not affect the status chance per pellet, just the status chance per shot.

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10 hours ago, Vilmera said:

 status proc chance in a single shot divided between two pellets as its damage. no?

Yes, but once it hits 100% every single pellet procs because its coded to perform 2 conditions:

1) theres is a guaranteed (a 100% probability) proc per shot, even if all but one pellet miss a target

2) all pellets have equal proc chance

So we end up with funny math, like with Tigris Prime - 100% status chance, 8 pellets.

100/8=100.

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On 02/02/2017 at 10:29 PM, Heliopata said:

This is mostly for people using rivens, since i think the alredy known 100% status weapons using our current mods are working as intended.

If a weapon reachs 100% status, all the bullets/pellets will proc a status at the same time. 

Story time (You can skip directly to the TL;DR):

  Reveal hidden contents

I rolled an akjagara riven with +damage +electric and +130.3 status chance and for the lols, i slaped all the elemental/status mods entering the sacred domain of 100%status. Damage and armor shredding on my fav weapon, what a nice day.

The next day i got an almost godlike roll on the Akbronco: +Multshot + Status chance + Heat -Status duration (So close), made a build with 2 dual stat elementals and decide to take one out. It still got 100% but it was red, pretty wierd. Checked it on the warframe builder 99.967 status chance. Well whatever, decide to test it on the simulacrum and the diference was night and day. 2 shots would make armor disapear (Some high level bombard, dont remember) and the "100% status" one would take  a few mags. 

After running around some missions i sold it to make some room, but the doubt stayed.

I decide to test an akbronco with 100% against 99.997% status chance (Which on the arsenal shows as 100%):

  Reveal hidden contents

ecxBQMB.jpg

Against a  lvl 145 Bombards

100% status took around 7-10 rounds to strip it from armour

99.997% Status took around 15-20 rounds even though it had more corrosive.

TL;DR : The Arsenal round up centecimals and shows you 100%,but it doesnt actuallly work like one (Multiple procs per shot). You can check your 100% status builds on warframe builder.

The diference is night and day for armour shredding on no so fast fire rate weapons, pretty niche now that i think about it.

P.S: RIP akjagara 100% status dreams, 0.036% too far.

 

That's because 100% status chance on shotgun or innate multi-shot weapons like the Akjagara turns EVERY SINGLE PELLET into a status proc.

That's why Tigris Prime is so good, not because of the huge base damage (though that helps massively) but because that damage coupled with 100% status makes every shot a huge slash proc.

99% status on those weapons brings the number of status pellets to something like 70%

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On 2/3/2017 at 6:48 AM, Azrael said:

This is well known

I beg to differ with you there. Seeing the number of traders selling <53.4% status Tigris rivens (or any other status riven for that matter on any weapon that can potentially hit 100%) for 1k and upwards, on the grounds that with multishot it can hit 100% is just painful.

That's only made worse by the fact that people are actually buying them for those prices. That's like buying a medicore 2-stat riven thinking it's actually a good 3-stat one; easily 400-500 worth of plat lost for the buyer in the transaction. It's equally bad for those rolling their Rivens, those who think that they're rolling it into something better only to find out they're actually making it worse.

This topic has been revisited numerous times since the new year began and at least 4-5 different posts have emerged discussing this issue. It has only gone to show that a great deal of players (both new and old alike) don't have a proper understanding of the mechanics behind the scenes of the displayed numbers in the Arsenal UI.

While it isn't as high of a priority compared to other issues, revamping the Arsenal UI display to account for misleading figures and multishot would certainly reduce the misunderstandings involved.

Edited by InsomnIaC.
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20 hours ago, Ivan_Rid said:

Yes, but once it hits 100% every single pellet procs because its coded to perform 2 conditions:

1) theres is a guaranteed (a 100% probability) proc per shot, even if all but one pellet miss a target

2) all pellets have equal proc chance

So we end up with funny math, like with Tigris Prime - 100% status chance, 8 pellets.

100/8=100.

Not quite. You're conclusion is correct, but it's not "funny math" it's actually perfectly reasonable. Given that you are firing multiple pellets, if you have 100% status chance per shot than mathematically you must have 100% chance per pellet. There really isn't anything unusual going on.

I feel like everyone is going to ignore this, and if you are reading this and want to ignore it, please feel free. But for anyone who wants to know the real answer for why it works this way, here it is:

Spoiler

If we have a P chance to proc status per pellet (meaning each pellet has P status chance), we fire N pellets, and we have an overall status chance of S (per shot), then we can work out what S is depending on what P and N are. The chance of a pellet not proccing is 1-P, and the chance of N pellets not proccing is (1-P)^N. This means the quantity (1-P) is raised to the Nth power. For example, if P is 10% and N is 5, the chance of all 5 pellets not proccing is (1-0.1)^5 = 0.9^5 = 0.59

Now if we want to know the chance of getting at least one status proc, we just subtract that number from 1, giving us the formula 1 - (1-P)^N. Since S is the status chance per shot, we can see that S is defined as:   S = 1 - (1-P)^N

After doing some math in the spoiler, we get that the status chance per shot is equal to 1 - (1 - pellet chance)^number of pellets, or S = 1 - (1-P)^N.

If you didn't follow that or even open the spoiler, that's okay! The important part is that we didn't use any knowledge of the code or special rules, we only used the laws of probability.

But this isn't what we want! We want to know the chance per pellet, and what we know is the chance per shot, because that's what is given in the arsenal. To find this we just solve the above equation for P. I'll spare you the details, and just give you the answer (but if you want them just ask).

We end up with P = 1 - (1-S)^(1/N), in other words, the pellet status chance is equal to  1 - (1-chance per shot)^(1/number of pellets)

Now if we plug in 100% (which is just 1) for S, we get that P (remember that's the chance per pellet) is equal to 1- 0^N, but 0^N is just 0, so we get 1. In other words, having a status chance of 100% means your pellet chance is also 100%. On the other hand, if we plug in 99% (or .99) with a weapon that shoots 10 pellets (such as an unmodded strun wraith) we get a per-pellet chance of 37%. So dropping from 100% to 99% drops your pellet status chance from 100% to 37%, which is a mind-boggling drop. This is why it's no good building for status on shotguns if you can't hit 100%. You may as well use no status mods at all, because it will hardly make a difference.

 

Now here's the really important bit, and the reason I bothered writing all this. At no point did any special rules, weird "funny math," mistakes in the code, or other nonsense come into play. We only used the laws of probability. This means that this "funny behavior" isn't funny at all, it's just a consequence of basic probability. Weapons that fire multiple pellets behave this way for the same reason that 2+2=4, because that's how math works. I feel like those few people who know about this behavior often tend to think that it's "some weird rules in the code" or something, and that's simply not true.

 

 

2 hours ago, InsomnIaC. said:

While it isn't as high of a priority compared to other issues, revamping the Arsenal UI display to account for misleading figures and multishot would certainly reduce the misunderstandings involved.

I feel like the arsenal is in need of an overhaul. I guess when I said that this behavior was well known, I meant that it's somewhat well-known that 100% status on shotguns is awesome, but much less well-known that multishot plays no role in reaching 100% status. I've seen people talking about 100% status Hek builds (before rivens) and I just wanted to laugh (or maybe cry). Because of course they were using the syndicate mod and thinking they'd reached 100% status, when in fact they had not.

At the end of the day, though, this kind of thing will always happen. The truth is that the damage system in warframe is fantastically complex, and that this is one of the reasons the game is so amazing. It's good because there's tons of variation and different strategies for making weapons good, but it will always result in people not understanding what's going on. All we can really do is offer to explain.

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7 minutes ago, ViS4GE said:

What minimal status you need from your status mods to hit 100% on Kohm, Boar Prime, Tigris Prime (234% ?), Strun Wraith ?

If you mean how much status you need from mods, it's just division. Take the Strun wraith, it has a base 40% status chance. To reach 100%, you need 60% more. 60/40 = 1.5, or 150% status chance. So adding 150% status via mods will get you to the magical 100% status chance. That's 3 dual stat mods.

The kohm has 25% base status, so you need 75% more. 75/25 = 3, so you need +300% status to hit the magic number. 4 dual stat mods is +240%, so it is impossible to reach 100% status without using Nano Applicator (which is a real pain) or a riven mod. What you really want with the kohm is a +120% status chance riven mod, because that way you can use that mod and 3 dual stat mods to reach 100% status. That's only 4 mods, so you can fit ammo mutation and fire rate.

I happen to have one such mod, and it is amazing.

Here's the mod:

Spoiler

9CGau6g.jpg?1

 

And here's what happens when I use it. This is video I recorded in the sim room, against level 145 heavy gunners. You can see my build in the video.

Spoiler

 

Pretty amazing huh? So if you're a kohm lover, this is what you want to look for.

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