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Drop Rates, Datamines, and Digital Extremes (DDD).


[DE]Rebecca
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33 minutes ago, Operative_Shift said:

I actually think about it this way.. If Void hadn't been around, the community would've been in an uproar for information straight out of the gate, and pressed DE for a resource like this A LOT sooner. Had this resource NOT been available to us, for the sake of transparency (and also Canadian guilt lol) they would've had no choice but to create the site for us themselves several years ago. 

Let's face it, both DE and the community used Void as a crutch. We should've been pressing the entire time the "datamines" were going on for an IN GAME resource, rather than having to seek things outside of game. 

can you honestly say that with a straight face? *badumtss* .. the community have ALWAYS pressed DE for more transparency and more information about how the game works. 

this happened organically out of necessity, saving time and money for DE.

i don't even want to imagine how the wiki would look if it were solely in the hands of DE when they can barely handle patch notes. we would probably get information added with the same speed we get mag reworks. also we kinda need 3rd party verification since DE has a bad track record regarding accuracy in certain cases.

don't get me wrong the game is amazing but how it's presented to the player is severely lacking in the UI. also i'm not convinced the wealth of information wiki has can ever fit comfortably in the game's UI and i don't mind going outside the game for it.

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55 minutes ago, notlamprey said:

All of this is nonsense, and you know it. These forums are a place where respect matters, and you're not showing any.

Actually I think getting information from actual experts and sharing it with interested parties is extremely respectful.

55 minutes ago, notlamprey said:

Your claimed credentials are not relevant here, I'm afraid.

My credentials aren't in question here. The video has a professional computer engineer speaking on the proper definition of datamining, and how information was acquired from the game, so it's actually incredibly relevant. Feel free to dismiss me, but you can't dismiss him.

55 minutes ago, notlamprey said:

You have just finished claiming computer engineering credentials.

I'm not sure if you actually watched the video whatsoever.. because I NEVER claimed MY computer engineering credentials LOL. You may want to actually view the material, before you start speaking on things that you haven't even looked into.

55 minutes ago, notlamprey said:

Unless you wish to reopen the question of the nature of the activities in question, we're only discussing the legality of those activities

Well the fact is, using the inappropriate terminology to play google search lawyer will result in the wrong results. Using the appropriate terminology changes the factors ;)

55 minutes ago, notlamprey said:

To which expert might you be referring, I wonder? If you wish to assert that you are a computer engineering expert, you have provided no proof of that.

Sounds like you didn't watch the video whatsoever.. I mean you'd think that if you were going to attempt to put together a cohesive response, I'd actually expect you to review the material, rather than just push it aside in pure ignorance.

55 minutes ago, notlamprey said:

I'm disappointed that this is the sort of behavior we're getting from a Warframe Partner.

I'm disappointed in this sort of behavior from someone in our general community. I mean you're insulting me, yet you haven't even studied the material I provided. You're disappointed in me, but you haven't actually taken the time to hear out someone with experience with actual computer engineering.

But hey, that's what this thread has turned into now right? LOL blind ignorance. No one wants to listen to someone unless they're pandering to the crowd. THAT is what's truly disappointing.

Edited by Operative_Shift
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16 minutes ago, ..atom.. said:

can you honestly say that with a straight face? *badumtss* .. the community have ALWAYS pressed DE for more transparency and more information about how the game works.

LMAO! That was good one, XD I admittedly giggled :heart:

Yeah but as I had stated, both the community and DE used him as their crutch. We would've pushed them harder if we had no other outlet whatsoever, and they would've been in a rough spot because we'd be right about not having any kind of resource available to us.

18 minutes ago, ..atom.. said:

this happened organically out of necessity, saving time and money for DE.

Yes, but DE needs to put the time and money into transparency. It's that same crutch mentality that let this go for as long as it did.

21 minutes ago, ..atom.. said:

also we kinda need 3rd party verification since DE has a bad track record regarding accuracy in certain cases.

Not if it's pulling the information directly from the game, kind of like the way it does with the relic system now. It would just be transmitting what exists.

22 minutes ago, ..atom.. said:

don't get me wrong the game is amazing but how it's presented to the player is severely lacking in the UI. also i'm not convinced the wealth of information wiki has can ever fit comfortably in the game's UI and i don't mind going outside the game for it.

Yeah I think that's why they're begining with an external site. I personally am going to encourage them to find a way to get it into the game. It may not be today, it may not be tomorrow, it may not be after another two reworks, but in my heart that's what I'd really want to see.

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41 minutes ago, Operative_Shift said:

Yes, but DE needs to put the time and money into transparency.

are you trying to argue DE doesn't already have this in their game because the community picked up the slack? that stopped them putting time and money into it? you can't be serious.

imho the issue is that a line was crossed and it forced them to take a different stand for understandable reasons. it's one of the "this is why we can't have nice things" type situations. i still have hope for going a more cooperative route.

41 minutes ago, Operative_Shift said:

Not if it's pulling the information directly from the game, kind of like the way it does with the relic system now. It would just be transmitting what exists

oh like how the UI and patch notes are always accurate and we never had cases of screwed stats that got cleared due to extensive community testing and "data mining" :clem:

Edited by ..atom..
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3 minutes ago, ..atom.. said:

are you trying to argue DE doesn't already have this in their game because the community picked up the slack? that stopped them putting time and money into it? you can't be serious.

Yeah.. thats kind of the whole point isn't it? It was never in the game because a group of dataminers were already providing it for the community. DE simply used it as a reason to work on other things, like new weapons, new frames, reworks, cinematic quests, etc etc. I'm not saying that they were in the right for doing that in any way shape or form, HOWEVER if that resource DIDN'T exist for us AT ALL you damn well know that the community would've pushed for it a ton harder and DE would've been forced to respond to THAT instead of this. 

8 minutes ago, ..atom.. said:

oh like how the UI is always accurate and we never had cases of screwed stats that got cleared due to extensive community testing and "data mining"

The parts of the UI that pull DIRECTLY from the game itself didn't show screwed up stats. Manually imputed ones most likely did, however it seems that with this site, DE is making sure that it comes directly from the source that way you get the most accurate and up to date information, rather than waiting for someone to "datamine" the info. :inlove:

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43 minutes ago, MarrikBroom said:

Apologies for popping my head in but i have to ask.... why do you keep double posting instead of hitting the edit button if there's things you want to add?

The question should be: Why don't you. Why don't I.

We have been wasting time clicking that Edit button!

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On 22/06/2017 at 3:55 PM, [DE]Rebecca said:

EDIT: June 27/17 @ 11:19 AM
Tenno,

The drop table web page is still being finalized, but a Balor Fomorian has appeared! If you're joining the fight to help protect our Relays, this information may be of use to you:  

Time-Sensitive PC Drop Table for the Balor Fomorian
400 ENDO                                            75%
IMPERATOR VANDAL BARREL           11%
IMPERATOR VANDAL RECEIVER        2%
IMPERATOR VANDAL BLUEPRINT     11%

Quoting Balor Fomorian drop tables for visibility. 

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First things first. THANK YOU for the drop chances for the Fomorian.

 

However I have a concern:

On 6/22/2017 at 9:55 PM, [DE]Rebecca said:

IMPERATOR VANDAL RECEIVER        2%

Statistically speaking a drop chance of 2% means ~50 expected tries and a variance of ~2450 (so it's give or take 49 putting the average-worst case scenario at about ~100 runs) when taking drop rates to follow a geometric probability distribution. All this limited by a 3 day period. I don't mean to be rude, I'm saying this because it's a true concern, but you know some people need sleep, and have work and school yes? 

...And then there are those who suffer from an extreme case of horribly bad luck along with that.

Is there a reason why that chance is so low?

Edited by Kurambik
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1 minute ago, IronWolfSaber said:

What are the odds of getting two receivers in a row?

That can easily be calculated and is 0.02= 0.0004 or equivalently 0.04%

now assuming that you don't care when you get them but you're only interested in getting 2 receivers. To find the number of tries required we model it as a Negative Binomial distributed random variable we get:

Expected number of tries = 2 / 0.02 = 100 tries

Variance around the expectation = 2(2+1)/0.022  = 15000 (~112 when taking square root)

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8 minutes ago, Kurambik said:

That can easily be calculated and is 0.02= 0.0004 or equivalently 0.04%

now assuming that you don't care when you get them but you're only interested in getting 2 receivers. To find the number of tries required we model it as a Negative Binomial distributed random variable we get:

Expected number of tries = 2 / 0.02 = 100 tries

Variance around the expectation = 2(2+1)/0.022  = 15000 (~112 when taking square root)

 

Well this was more in response of it actually happening to me I just wanted to know the odds. 

 

speaking of which got my 3rd out of 25 keys I started with (still have 12 more ish)

Edited by IronWolfSaber
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9 minutes ago, Kurambik said:

That can easily be calculated and is 0.02= 0.0004 or equivalently 0.04%

now assuming that you don't care when you get them but you're only interested in getting 2 receivers. To find the number of tries required we model it as a Negative Binomial distributed random variable we get:

Expected number of tries = 2 / 0.02 = 100 tries

Variance around the expectation = 2(2+1)/0.022  = 15000 (~112 when taking square root)

Just out of curiosity, how long does a single run take to complete?

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IMPERATOR vandal drops should be equal even if the total rate for each is lower, this is why we have dataminers. 2 percent when everything else is 11 percent is not fair for those that dont have the money to trade or the time to farm for the resources and build the keys to run the balor fomorian sabatoge to have an unequal chance at getting all the parts.

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18 minutes ago, Darkvramp said:

IMPERATOR vandal drops should be equal even if the total rate for each is lower, this is why we have dataminers. 2 percent when everything else is 11 percent is not fair for those that dont have the money to trade or the time to farm for the resources and build the keys to run the balor fomorian sabatoge to have an unequal chance at getting all the parts.

Orcus relay is enough to block a lot of people out along with archwing. 

Edited by IronWolfSaber
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