WhiteTrick Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 seriously what is with the amount of dark swords and dark daggers and dont say its the rng cuz this didnt start till recently isnt the alert system they changed to sposed to lower the odds of something poping up again or just be taken off the lost? also anyone else notice that when 9.3 happened non "?" alerts were poping up on the twitter? oh and also neglected in title we have had what 3/4 ceramic dagger allerts since friday? xD i will say though i do want duel Dark :DDDDDDD thatd make my day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DishSoap Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Here have a Ceramic Dagger or Heat Sword instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter13 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Actually, it's precisely because it's RNG that it's possible for an item to appear frequently in a short time period. Keep in mind that the more it appears, the less of a chance it has of appearing again (RNG Alerts 2.0 saw the introduction of chance reductions after an item is brought up). So yeah, it is RNG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScPhantom Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 I was just about to make this post as well. It is totally ridicilous and i can not imagine it being anything but a bug or oversight, or something. There must be something wrong, Within 7 hours from each other, dark sword popped up twice. The last couple of days, dark sword and dark dagger has popped up atleast 4 times, and ceramic dagger and heat sword as mentioned earlierer are dropping crazy as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteTrick Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 I was just about to make this post as well. It is totally ridicilous and i can not imagine it being anything but a bug or oversight, or something. There must be something wrong, Within 7 hours from each other, dark sword popped up twice. The last couple of days, dark sword and dark dagger has popped up atleast 4 times, and ceramic dagger and heat sword as mentioned earlierer are dropping crazy as well what i wanted to add to was something did change with the alert system and the best part is we cant confirm or full deny this because DE doesnt give us legitimate patch notes, we get patch high lights and thats it, no one can deny that more happens because every update people point out or data mine nerfs and tweaks. and something did happen to the alert system because non reward alerts started poping up on twitter, weve had a spam of heat sword, ceramic dagger, dark blades (also note dark blades have a lower alert rate than other items) and 0 2nd gen helms that smells fishhyyyyyy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter13 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 (edited) I was just about to make this post as well. It is totally ridicilous and i can not imagine it being anything but a bug or oversight, or something. Flip a coin 100 times. If the coin lands on heads or tails 5 times (or more) consecutively, is the coin rigged/broken? I thought so. There's your answer. what i wanted to add to was something did change with the alert system and the best part is we cant confirm or full deny this because DE doesnt give us legitimate patch notes, we get patch high lights and thats it, no one can deny that more happens because every update people point out or data mine nerfs and tweaks. and something did happen to the alert system because non reward alerts started poping up on twitter, weve had a spam of heat sword, ceramic dagger, dark blades (also note dark blades have a lower alert rate than other items) and 0 2nd gen helms that smells fishhyyyyyy All alerts ("?" and credits) were always on the twitter feed. Also DE has explained how the Alert System 2.0 works; when an item pops up, the system reduces its % chance of popping up again (and redistributes that % drop to all other items' % chances, thereby making them more common). Also I've gotten maybe 4 or 5 2nd generation helmets. Pulse Volt, Meridian Trinity, Pendragon Excalibur, Squall Frost... Alert system isn't bugged. You're seeing what you want to see, not as it actually is. Edited July 29, 2013 by Letter13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DishSoap Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 (edited) Flip a coin 100 times. If the coin lands on heads or tails 5 times (or more) consecutively, is the coin rigged/broken? I thought so. There's your answer. The coin only has two results the alert system does not. Edited July 29, 2013 by DishSoap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoOz Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Let us hope it is for a reason. Say maybe a BP that allows you to put them together like dual heat swords? Mmmmm that would be delicious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NalkorRN Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Flip a coin 100 times. If the coin lands on heads or tails 5 times (or more) consecutively, is the coin rigged/broken? I thought so. There's your answer. DE changed the alert system so that items that were going through drought stages would be more and more likely to pop-up. This was the Alert 2.0 system put in after the month long potato famine that people were complaining about. The old system was less coin flip and more dice rolls. The current system is (supposed to be) a system where eventually, an item will appear because it hasn't shown up in so long, a streak-breaker if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ventias Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Flip a coin 100 times. If the coin lands on heads or tails 5 times (or more) consecutively, is the coin rigged/broken? I thought so. There's your answer. ......... *sigh* i dont really... *sigh* worst supporting example i have seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteTrick Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 Flip a coin 100 times. If the coin lands on heads or tails 5 times (or more) consecutively, is the coin rigged/broken? I thought so. There's your answer. All alerts ("?" and credits) were always on the twitter feed. Also DE has explained how the Alert System 2.0 works; when an item pops up, the system reduces its % chance of popping up again (and redistributes that % drop to all other items' % chances, thereby making them more common). Also I've gotten maybe 4 or 5 2nd generation helmets. Pulse Volt, Meridian Trinity, Pendragon Excalibur, Squall Frost... Alert system isn't bugged. You're seeing what you want to see, not as it actually is. actualy coins are rigged, you see the % of a coin being heads or tales is only 50% in a theoretical written use but IN TEH REAL WURLDS their are many factors involved in the flip ranging from weight of each face, wind, gravitational pull of your area or outside forces etc. etc for example i have a coin i use for games one side is heads one side is a small bird with 2 tales i use it because on most ocasions it gets a heads on flips so i can win. just as you can load dice you can load a coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter13 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 ......... *sigh* i dont really... *sigh* worst supporting example i have seen in a while. Actually it's a perfect example. Given it only has 2 options (As opposed to the number of items obtainable from alerts), but even with multiple options, when you run a trial such as a dice-roll over and over (even if the % chances are balanced each time slightly to prevent result drought) , you're bound to get repeat results. Of course there's an infinitesimally small chance that it could be run with no repeats whatsoever, but this also assumes that the system would run until the end of time. God I love hate probabilistic systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteTrick Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 Let us hope it is for a reason. Say maybe a BP that allows you to put them together like dual heat swords? Mmmmm that would be delicious... that would make me so happy xD i have both itd be like dark swors + dark dagger + neurodesx2 + orokin cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ventias Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 (edited) Actually it's a perfect example. Given it only has 2 options (As opposed to the number of items obtainable from alerts), but even with multiple options, when you run a trial such as a dice-roll over and over (even if the % chances are balanced each time slightly to prevent result drought) , you're bound to get repeat results. Of course there's an infinitesimally small chance that it could be run with no repeats whatsoever, but this also assumes that the system would run until the end of time. God I love hate probabilistic systems. the probability system in the alert system is not even, and never was. there are 3 categories in the alert system -common -uncommon -rare. what are the actual % , well beats me. so in this case the coin example doesnt work. Edited July 29, 2013 by Ventias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Micotaru Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 ITT: People that never event touched the randint function of their TI-83 in high school and have no knowledge of probability pretending that lowered chance for repeats = no real chance for repeats. Runs happen in any probabilistic system. Distribution doesn't even out until you average every roll from one to some extremely huge number. It may coincidentally hit perfect average now and then, but only when you average every single roll up to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f3llyn Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 People said it was RNG when we didn't get a catalyst or reactor alert for nearly 2 months. So yeah, I'd rather just assume something is broken and work from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SanderF Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 16 @(*()$ dark swords since last vauban helmet, this is bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
123Olympian Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 +1. Dark Sword and Dagger were highly rare when I first started. Not now. Anyways, they should have key alerts. Also more potato and forma would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Micotaru Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 People said it was RNG when we didn't get a catalyst or reactor alert for nearly 2 months. So yeah, I'd rather just assume something is broken and work from there. It was RNG. In a purely probabilistic system, what happened with one dense month and two empty months is just as likely as three months of perfectly intermittent occurrences. DE introduced a system to weight against such occurrences, but that remains a weight, not a highly engineered and planned schedule to eliminate them entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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