Number of relics needed

[pyrotech63]

How many relics would i need to "sacrifice" in order to get the rare drop? The wiki only does percentages for solo which i do understand, but having a general idea of how many relics i need to farm would be nice. 

I should mention that i am looking for solo numbers since the wiki has the numbers for groups.

The numbers from wiki are: 2% 4% 6% 10%, of increasing refinement for the rare drop. 

[Buff00n]

15 hours ago, (XB1)Mr Calverley said:

You'd expect 10 off the same radiant relic to "guarantee" the rare drop (10×10% =100% chance), though of course, probability has no guarantees. 

That's not how probability works with repeated independent samples of the same random variable.  Rather than simply multiplying, you have to do a little more work and raise it to the 10th power.  For 10 runs of something with 10% chance of success, the math for calculating the chance of at least one success looks like this:

1 - ((1 - 10%)^10) = 65%.

 

Now, the average number of runs you will need for something that has a 10% chance of success just happens to be 10, but that's because the Expected Value for the Binomial Distribution of random variable with a probability P turns out to be 1/P.  The proof of that is pretty complicated, though.

 

 

15 hours ago, pyrotech63 said:

How many relics would i need to "sacrifice" in order to get the rare drop? The wiki only does percentages for solo which i do understand, but having a general idea of how many relics i need to farm would be nice. 

I should mention that i am looking for solo numbers since the wiki has the numbers for groups.

The numbers from wiki are: 2% 4% 6% 10%, of increasing refinement for the rare drop. 

Is this the wiki chart you're talking about?

Quality	Chance for rare from 4-relic share	Expected Shares on average	Traces for expected average	Expected Shares for 90% chance	Traces for 90%
Intact	8%	12.88	0	28.49	0
Exception	15%	6.64	166	14.10	353
Flawless	22%	4.56	228	9.30	465
Radiant	34%	2.91	291	5.46	546

 

Here's the equivalent chart for single relic runs.  It's... pretty grim.

Quality	Chance for rare from single relic	Expected Relics on average	Traces for expected average	Expected Relics for 90% chance	Traces for 90%
Intact	2%	50.00	0	113.97	0
Exception	4%	25.00	625	56.41	1410
Flawless	6%	16.67	833	37.21	1861
Radiant	10%	10.00	1000	21.85	2185

 

 

[xXHobbitXx]

its all rng, you could use 1 unaltered relic and get rare drop, you could use 10 and get nothing, you could use 1 refined relic and get rare drop, you could use 10 and get nothing but common, its completely random, just cross your fingers and hope for best

[(XBOX)Jay5446]

You'd expect 10 off the same radiant relic to "guarantee" the rare drop (10×10% =100% chance), though of course, probability has no guarantees. 

Edited April 2, 2018 by (XB1)Mr Calverley

[-VM-Fawxco]

It's pure RNG. With some luck you get it on the first relic, with bad luck you need 10+. If you really want a rare part i'd recommend finding a squad of 4 people.

[Sloan441]

Depends on the actual drop rate. 

If one assumes 6.25% for a rare drop, then a base relic will require around 27 runs to see a return. A radiant relic has something like 10-12% drop rate, so you'll probably need around 10 runs. 

Mileage will vary, of course, but that's rough idea of what you'll need. 

Radshares do help a lot, but I generally only indulge in them when I'm very short of appropriate relics (i.e. more traces than relics to use them on). 

[(XBOX)Jay5446]

6 hours ago, Buff00n said:

Mega snip.

Thank you, I'll note this information going forward. Hopefully OP has also read this.

[pyrotech63]

On 4/2/2018 at 12:16 PM, Buff00n said:

Is this the wiki chart you're talking about?

Quality	Chance for rare from 4-relic share	Expected Shares on average	Traces for expected average	Expected Shares for 90% chance	Traces for 90%
Intact	8%	12.88	0	28.49	0
Exception	15%	6.64	166	14.10	353
Flawless	22%	4.56	228	9.30	465
Radiant	34%	2.91	291	5.46	546

 

Here's the equivalent chart for single relic runs.  It's... pretty grim.

Quality	Chance for rare from single relic	Expected Relics on average	Traces for expected average	Expected Relics for 90% chance	Traces for 90%
Intact	2%	50.00	0	113.97	0
Exception	4%	25.00	625	56.41	1410
Flawless	6%	16.67	833	37.21	1861
Radiant	10%	10.00	1000	21.85	2185

 

 

Thanks for the info.  I do understand that the number of relics i need to get a rare drop may be 10 , 21, or 100, but having having at least a idea/goal of how many may help the grind seem not so bad.  

[Buff00n]

49 minutes ago, pyrotech63 said:

Thanks for the info.  I do understand that the number of relics i need to get a rare drop may be 10 , 21, or 100, but having having at least a idea/goal of how many may help the grind seem not so bad.  

I think the takeaway from these numbers is that finding radiant shares is worth the effort.  It cuts your expected work to roughly a quarter of what you can expect going it alone, in terms of both relics and traces.

Try focusing on the newer primes from the last one or two prime accesses, unvaulted primes when they're around, and primes that are about to be vaulted by the next prime access.  Those should all be relatively easy radiant shares to find.  Get to know the chat filters on recruiting chat.  That's plenty to keep you busy, but it's probably also worth finding radiant shares for any "out of season" prime parts you don't happen to pick up while doing the above.