Axi S3 unvault hard to farm

[(XBOX)Danowat32]

2 minutes ago, --Q--Stryker said:

My bad, thought you were agreeing with the people whining about it. Never seen that article though, gonna check it out.

Gamblers fallacy is something a lot of people get blinkered by, one of the reasons why people become gambling addicts "one more go, it must happen this time", it's that whole misconception of probability being cumulative.

[tychondus]

18 minutes ago, (XB1)Danowat32 said:

And again, people just don't get random, it's called the gamblers fallacy.

Are you talking about random  or pseudo-random? im not sure if you're applying non-deterministic logic to a deterministic machine.

[(PSN)theframpton5]

This is the worst time that I have been spending to get relics. I need the Axi S3 for the boltor stock that I have been carrying around for a very long time. I also need the Neo R7 for the Nyx chassis. I have gotten 10 neo R7's and no chassis. I have been through 4 Axi S3's and no boltor stock. It is a common drop! I fee that something is wrong with this.

[FillyRarity]

After finally getting all the parts for Rhino prime I've noticed something that does make me question if the drop rate truely is equal.

Only got about three S3 relics over the three days I spent farming and they were staggered over quite some time, but I noticed that all the other axi relics I'd got were within a pretty consistent range, either 20 or 30 of them or somewhere there abouts. Same thing with the Meso/neo relics. Every relic besides the Rhino ones I had like over 40 of them in each category with only four or five in differences.

Surely with that sample size like the drops of the unvaulted relics would be higher right?

[(PSN)delbert29720]

30 minutes ago, FillyRarity said:

After finally getting all the parts for Rhino prime I've noticed something that does make me question if the drop rate truely is equal.

Only got about three S3 relics over the three days I spent farming and they were staggered over quite some time, but I noticed that all the other axi relics I'd got were within a pretty consistent range, either 20 or 30 of them or somewhere there abouts. Same thing with the Meso/neo relics. Every relic besides the Rhino ones I had like over 40 of them in each category with only four or five in differences.

Surely with that sample size like the drops of the unvaulted relics would be higher right?

That is a relatively small sample size still and again probability isn’t cumulative 

[FillyRarity]

1 minute ago, (PS4)delbert29720 said:

That is a relatively small sample size still and again probability isn’t cumulative 

Is it? Huh, when I saw that I had like big stacks of each of the meso/neo relics but had barely got any of the unvaulted ones I thought something was up.

[Anomandarys]

3 hours ago, (PS4)theframpton5 said:

This is the worst time that I have been spending to get relics. I need the Axi S3 for the boltor stock that I have been carrying around for a very long time. I also need the Neo R7 for the Nyx chassis. I have gotten 10 neo R7's and no chassis. I have been through 4 Axi S3's and no boltor stock. It is a common drop! I fee that something is wrong with this.

Have you tried doing radshares? They're a godsend even if you just want a common. 

 

Completely tangential complaint about the Axi S3's: Is it just me, or is it extra irritating that half of the Axi drops in the void end in "3"? Hey I got a..! Wait, no, thats an A3. Ooh look at that...! Never mind, it's just an H3 . So on and so forth. 

Edited July 30, 2018 by Anomandarys

[SneakyErvin]

I dont see the problem with Axi S3.

It has close to the same probability to drop as the Meso and Neo has from Ukko aslong as you run Marduk for the Axi.

Neo/Meso drop chance: 6.67% chance from Ukko.

Axi drop chance: 5.88% chance from Marduk.

The difference between the two is minimal.

[Damocles]

On 2018-07-30 at 3:22 PM, SneakyErvin said:

I dont see the problem with Axi S3.

It has close to the same probability to drop as the Meso and Neo has from Ukko aslong as you run Marduk for the Axi.

Neo/Meso drop chance: 6.67% chance from Ukko.

Axi drop chance: 5.88% chance from Marduk.

The difference between the two is minimal.

I'd like to add that the axi drop is almost half the time since 5.88% is the chance of S3 on axi, there's still the Neo relics diluted in there as well

[(XBOX)Evilpricetag]

seems relic packs might be equally fair to farm from syndicates

[SneakyErvin]

9 hours ago, Descent-of-Damocles said:

I'd like to add that the axi drop is almost half the time since 5.88% is the chance of S3 on axi, there's still the Neo relics diluted in there as well

That doesnt change a thing though since that is the exact same case for Neo/Meso competing with eachother in Ukko.

So Axi isnt much harder to get than the Neo/Meso, it all depends which relic you need most.

If you're filled up on the needed Meso and Axi then the Neo will suck to grind, if you are filled up on Neo and Axi the Meso will suck to grind, if you are filled up on the Neo and Meso then the Axi will suck to grind. Each of the places will have one relic you dont need at some point. The difference between 6.67% and 5.88% is neglectable.

[Harrock86]

On 2018-07-30 at 7:00 PM, (PS4)delbert29720 said:

That is a relatively small sample size still and again probability isn’t cumulative 

Check the prices on wf market, a common Rhino part (systems) goes for 50-60p. It's more expensive than both uncommon parts. I'd say the people using the market site is a relatively large sample.

 

On 2018-07-30 at 7:06 PM, FillyRarity said:

(...) I had like big stacks of each of the meso/neo relics but had barely got any of the unvaulted ones I thought something was up.

Same here, I play a lot lately (few hours a day), mostly doing Void missions (Mithra / Mot and the third one, don't remember the name). I've been farming these missions since day 1 of the unvaulting. 2 Axi S3 so far, one from a mission and another from one of the countless syndicate packs. I'm extremely unlucky or the RNG is biased.

[GPrime96]

1 hour ago, Harrock86 said:

(Mithra / Mot and the third one, don't remember the name).

Marduk?

[Harrock86]

6 minutes ago, VPrime96 said:

Marduk?

Yes 🙂

 

[corallein]

Axi is significantly harder to get than Neo, since in the process of getting an Axi, you'll get 3 Neos. But you know, that's fine. I've done just 2x Axi S3 radshare staggered rotations (one of which only had 3 because the last guy d/ced, so 7 Axi S3 rads) and got everything except for the Ankyros Prime Blades, which I bought using plat from selling extras of other parts that dropped.

[(PSN)Gibbs1116]

Most relics are like the Neo and down. But this AXI S3 is WAY harder to get than ever before. The people saying "it's fine" and "its supposed to be hard" are rediculous! There are 5 things you have to get by RNG after getting one, so you may get the part but need 5 minimum to get all 5 if it went in a row and gave you 1 of everything. There's no relic out there that takes 40 hours to get 1. And these people with no job or life that can play 120 hours a week will eventually get it enough, I play alot...40+ hours a week so I don't know if I'll get everything even, but kids that are in school or people that work and have families dont play half as much as i do...so how can they get it and still have fun. The only people that get everything in the first week seriously have no life and only play Warframe. And they always extend the unvaulting so it's never been just a month before. It's hard enough to get all the rest of the relics enough to get every other part but then you'll almost have everything built till you need the AXI part for it...lol

[Harulem]

Not arguing that the reward pool is too spread out, maybe it is.  Or that it takes too much time in average, it probably does.

But I wish people would stop complaining about getting too few of a certain relic (in this case AXI S3), compared to another relic in the pool, based on their personal experience.

Why?  Because unless you are the leader of a Chinese farming ring with hundreds of members and you pool all your data, your personal evidence is nothing but anecdotal and mathematically irrelevant.

There is a 1/17 chance to get a specific relic in this pool.  There is going to be a HUGE variance in the amount of each relic you get on your runs, unless you perform thousands of them.  Not 50, or even 100.

That's the way probability works.  So I am sorry but no, just because you and all you friends did not get it (or very few of it, or a lot more of relic X Y or Z instead) is in no way a reason to suspect that something fishy is going on.

Just to try to put some perspective, even if every single player in warframe right now performed 50 Marduk run, almost one out 20 still wouldn't get a single Axi S3.  That's thousands and thousands of players.  Guess they will come here saying that's insane and something is wrong ...

 

Edited August 2, 2018 by Harulem

[(PSN)de_sch0sch]

If you want to farm Axi relics fast, do Marduk. One run takes about 5 minutes and is guaranteed to reward you with 1 random Axi relic. I think I can consider myself very lucky as I've got 3 Axi S3 out of 10 Mot/Mithra runs. Will still continue to run Mot/Mithra to stack up on Neos.

[Damocles]

On 2018-08-01 at 8:13 AM, SneakyErvin said:

That doesnt change a thing though since that is the exact same case for Neo/Meso competing with eachother in Ukko.

So Axi isnt much harder to get than the Neo/Meso, it all depends which relic you need most.

If you're filled up on the needed Meso and Axi then the Neo will suck to grind, if you are filled up on Neo and Axi the Meso will suck to grind, if you are filled up on the Neo and Meso then the Axi will suck to grind. Each of the places will have one relic you dont need at some point. The difference between 6.67% and 5.88% is neglectable.

I think you missed to point, we're discussing how hard it is to get axi S3. The numbers are misleading. We don't need neos, and only Axi S3 populates 5.88% of axis, not the actual relic pool. The 5.88% is a subset of chance to get S3 given that we are rewarded with an Axi, which is not a guarantee to begin with.

[beercritch]

2 hours ago, (PS4)de_sch0sch said:

If you want to farm Axi relics fast, do Marduk. One run takes about 5 minutes and is guaranteed to reward you with 1 random Axi relic. I think I can consider myself very lucky as I've got 3 Axi S3 out of 10 Mot/Mithra runs. Will still continue to run Mot/Mithra to stack up on Neos.

nope

1 run of marduk is guaranteed to drop an AXI relic OR a NEO relic

Void/Marduk (Sabotage)
Neo S7 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Neo M1 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Neo K1 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Neo L1 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Neo N8 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Neo V7 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Neo B5 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Neo R1 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Axi E2 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Axi V7 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Axi A3 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Axi H3 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Axi K3 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Axi O3 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Axi L2 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Axi A4 Relic	Rare (5.88%)
Axi S3 Relic	Rare (5.88%)

 

PS. oops looking for the wrong thing lol

 

Edited August 2, 2018 by beercritch

[Harrock86]

4 hours ago, Harulem said:

But I wish people would stop complaining about getting too few of a certain relic (in this case AXI S3), compared to another relic in the pool, based on their personal experience.

Why?  Because unless you are the leader of a Chinese farming ring with hundreds of members and you pool all your data, your personal evidence is nothing but anecdotal and mathematically irrelevant.

You are right, but there is more to a RNG than "generate a bunch of rand() numbers". A good random number generator (or should we say "pseudo random") should be based on some preset distribution and give consistent approximation even for relatively small sample sizes. 300 Axi relics is not much when you think about all the players worldwide, but 300 Axi relics farmed in T4 void missions by one player is a lot. A good RNG would generate a sample as close to the underlying distribution as possible, even for that one player. 

I think there are 9 active Axi relics in the current drop tables. Let's imagine 9 players, each doing 30 runs of 20 minute T4 survival. RNG is having a bad day, so each time player N finishes the 4th rotation he gets the Nth "Axi" relic (so he gets the same result over and over again, 30 times in a row). Considering the result as a total the sample looks ideal - you have the Axi relic distribution covered perfectly. But unfortunately, you also have 9 unsatisfied players rage-quitting the game, which is not something you'd want to happen. Of course I'm exaggerating, the warframe RNG is not that bad 🙂 But basically that's why I do not really agree with the "Chinese farming ring"-kind of arguments.

So I think you need to balance your game, and thus the RNG, around the results possible to get by a single player in a reasonable amount of play time. Otherwise the game would be considered biased, unfair, unbalanced etc.. and you'd read "Axi S3 drop rate is bad" on the forum at least three times a day

[Harulem]

1 hour ago, Harrock86 said:

So I think you need to balance your game, and thus the RNG, around the results possible to get by a single player in a reasonable amount of play time. Otherwise the game would be considered biased, unfair, unbalanced etc.. and you'd read "Axi S3 drop rate is bad" on the forum at least three times a day

Your suggestion concerning a 'balanced' rng has a lot of merits, no doubt.  If I wanted to be a smart ass I would just say that you should then drop the r in rng because it won't be random any more 😉

As soon as you introduce memory in your generator, and past results influence future ones, you are throwing randomness out the window.  A random distribution is not smooth, that's the very nature of being random.

But again, who cares about semantics really, I don't see a disadvantage to a mechanism to smooth things out a bit.  From the player side that is, because from the technical side there is a cost.  You have to store every single roll of every player.  We are talking hundreds of millions of results here, that's some pretty nasty stuff to manage. 

So don't expect it anytime soon I am afraid.

 

[Harrock86]

4 minutes ago, Harulem said:

Your suggestion concerning a 'balanced' rng has a lot of merits, no doubt.  If I wanted to be a smart ass I would just say that you should then drop the r in rng because it won't be random any more 😉

As soon as you introduce memory in your generator, and past results influence future ones, you are throwing randomness out the window.  A random distribution is not smooth, that's the very nature of being random.

But again, who cares about semantics really, I don't see a disadvantage to a mechanism to smooth things out a bit.  From the player side that is, because from the technical side there is a cost.  You have to store every single roll of every player.  We are talking hundreds of millions of results here, that's some pretty nasty stuff to manage. 

So don't expect it anytime soon I am afraid.

 

That's true, such solution would be complex. I'm not really expecting anything in this direction implemented anytime soon.

But on the other hand, the source code is closed, so you'll never know what lurks inside the Warframe rng algorithm... Maybe it's an advanced AI generating the loot based on your gender, age and analyzing your recent facebook activity.

[Harulem]

16 hours ago, Harrock86 said:

That's true, such solution would be complex. I'm not really expecting anything in this direction implemented anytime soon.

But on the other hand, the source code is closed, so you'll never know what lurks inside the Warframe rng algorithm... Maybe it's an advanced AI generating the loot based on your gender, age and analyzing your recent facebook activity.

I am pretty sure the illuminati have their hands on it tbh.

 

[SneakyErvin]

On 2018-08-02 at 5:20 PM, Descent-of-Damocles said:

I think you missed to point, we're discussing how hard it is to get axi S3. The numbers are misleading. We don't need neos, and only Axi S3 populates 5.88% of axis, not the actual relic pool. The 5.88% is a subset of chance to get S3 given that we are rewarded with an Axi, which is not a guarantee to begin with.

No. There are 17 different relics in Marduk, each has a 5.88% chance, that means that the Axi does indeed have a 5.88% chance to drop. So it isnt 5.88% out of the axis, it is 11.11% since there are 9 axi relics out of the total 17 in Marduk.

So when you do look at it, the relic isnt harder to get than any other specific relic you are chasing. As I said it all depends which one you are missing. Neo/Meso from Ukko are slightly easier to get at 1/15 (6.67%) vs Axi from Marduk 1/17 (5.88%).