Equinox drop chance

[NakedMonkeye]

I was able to get every Equinox piece in 8 tries. I was wondering if anyone knew what the chances of that were?

[Omega-Shadowblade]

Very low chance I assure you. 

[GnarlsDarkley]

Day Aspect Blueprint	11.28%
Day Chassis Blueprint	12.91%
Day Neuroptics Blueprint	12.91%
Day Systems Blueprint	12.91%
Night Aspect Blueprint	11.28%
Night Chassis Blueprint	12.91%
Night Neuroptics Blueprint	12.91%
Night Systems Blueprint	12.91%

 

Google says 0.00087655016% chance

Edited August 12, 2018 by GnarlsDarkley

[Dragoncroac]

0.24% chance

[---Merchant---]

I call bullS#&$ on op,someone check his match history pls.

I had to run it like 140 times.

[UnemployedNinja]

If that is truth. I highly recommend going and buying a few lottery tickets before the day is over with.

[butka1998]

Shame it wasnt luck on lottery huh? (took me about 100 runs.. about 12 hours... I am not envious nooo whyyyy.....)

[GnarlsDarkley]

20 hours ago, Dragoncroac said:

0.24% chance

I'm bad at math, can you explain to me how you got this result?

google says I have to multiply all the chances:

.1128 x .1291 x .1291 x .1291 x .1128 x .1291 x .1291 x .1291 = 0.00087655016%

[(PSN)SteveOMatic]

You are one lucky bastard lol

Though, my Equinox farm was really easy compared to others.  I think I only had to go through 15-20 runs, which for 8 parts is extremely good fortune, but I'm paying for RNG's favor on me with Equinox now with the Acolytes lol   No Maiming Strike in 50+ runs...

[mlane16]

26 minutes ago, GnarlsDarkley said:

I'm bad at math, can you explain to me how you got this result?

google says I have to multiply all the chances:

.1128 x .1291 x .1291 x .1291 x .1128 x .1291 x .1291 x .1291 = 0.00087655016%

I think there is a theorm about independent distributions that your using there.  However, there is another answer, if you consider your keeping the blueprints and you want to know the probability of successive draws which each different blueprint.  This is then a conditional probablility, I wonder if the person was giving that for that one.

The conditional probability is hard to know if there is a true answer but this one is close: https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/219711.  Notice the pattern of the equations?  Repeat the pattern still you start using p7 (or 8 blocks of variables).  That will be the equation you need.  Then let each p be one of the 8 probabilities and use google sheets or excel to calculate.

Just so you know its not an easy problem ^^;

[mlane16]

15 minutes ago, (PS4)SteveOMatic said:

You are one lucky bastard lol

Though, my Equinox farm was really easy compared to others.  I think I only had to go through 15-20 runs, which for 8 parts is extremely good fortune, but I'm paying for RNG's favor on me with Equinox now with the Acolytes lol   No Maiming Strike in 50+ runs...

The Maiming strick farm is harder, but i am suprised that it too you more than 50 runs to get one.  You might apprechiate though that I made a probability graph to help explain the probability of drops like that. Acolytes in general follow the red curve: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/g1qfkwsxyd

The average should be 25 runs, while the 88% percentile and upper limit based on standard deviation is a little more than 50 runs.   The 90th percentile is like  60 to 65 runs.

Best of luck man.

[Guest]

That's some really good luck. I farmed two Equinox (one for mastery and another for stealth runs a few weeks later), each took me around 2 hours.

[(PSN)SteveOMatic]

37 minutes ago, mlane16 said:

The Maiming strick farm is harder, but i am suprised that it too you more than 50 runs to get one.  You might apprechiate though that I made a probability graph to help explain the probability of drops like that. Acolytes in general follow the red curve: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/g1qfkwsxyd

The average should be 25 runs, while the 88% percentile and upper limit based on standard deviation is a little more than 50 runs.   The 90th percentile is like  60 to 65 runs.

Best of luck man.

Violence is gone and he never dropped it for me.   😭

Well, not the worst thing I guess with the 3.0 changes coming that will nerf spin 2 win.  I'll just stick to rivens  lol

 

[Dragoncroac]

hace 3 horas, GnarlsDarkley dijo:

I'm bad at math, can you explain to me how you got this result?

google says I have to multiply all the chances:

.1128 x .1291 x .1291 x .1291 x .1128 x .1291 x .1291 x .1291 = 0.00087655016%

That is the chance to get all parts in that particular order, but you have to add the chances of all the orders. So it's that *(8!). To take account all the orders.