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ToGetChanges

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Posts posted by ToGetChanges

  1. Well DE is going to most likely continue on with their current schedule of working on Update 9 when that releases most of the problems that people are complaining about will be gone and then people will love them again for a few days before the new threads are created calling DE bad people for making bad changes to one of the characters that they buffed or nerfed. Anything else you'd like to know?

    Haha, so update9 is going to be a miracle patch that fixes "most of the problems"? Do you mind if I quote you on that? 'Cause that's gonna be hilarious.

    Yeah, I'd like to know how they're going to address balance issues, player retention issues, content issues, public relations issues, community issues, longstanding bugs, lore issues, rushing things without internal testing issues...probably a couple more I'll think of, but get started on those, would you? Thanks.

  2. I'm getting extremely tired of seeing, week after week, the phrases "It's on the drawing board", "It's being looked at", "Have patience", "Have faith", and "DE wouldn't lie to us".

    Week 5. This started being really brought to their attention in week 3. "Soon" doesn't cut it at this point, results do. Hell, give every player 5-10 potatoes, free and clear, just for being "beta" testers, and say "We're sorry the system is not properly functioning, since we recognize this is on us and not you, here's a token of goodwill and generosity to show you we still have your best interests at heart and that we want you to have fun while we fix this."

    What are the odds of THAT happening, I wonder?

  3. When I'm in a restaurant, I like ordering my food and then a minute later I go into the kitchen to yell at the cook for not making my food to my satisfaction. Screw his excuses that he's not finished yet!

    What happens if you wait 20 minutes for your food, and your waiter apologizes, so you wait 20 minutes more, and your waiter apologizes again, and you wait 20 minutes more, and your waiter apologizes another time, and you wait 20 minutes more, and your waiter promises to find out what's wrong, and you wait 20 minutes more, and your waiter forgot to do anything and apologizes, and you wait 20 minutes more, and your waiter apologizes and says your food should be out "soon" because they told the cook it wasn't being done?

    You're now 2 hours into waiting for a quick burger. You're going to stay seated and keep waiting forever without saying anything?

  4. In response to the questionable math in this thread, I decided to run my own equally questionable math.

    Doing a quick count on the Alert Twitter, I estimated ~5-10 ? alerts per day. That gives us ~35-70 ? alerts per week. Let's call it 50, because that's a nice number.

    There is no need to estimate. The number of alerts can clearly be counter from the twitter feed. Ignoring that to simply guesstimate automatically robs your conclusion of any possible credibility.

    So for 3 weeks, we'll say that there were ~150 ? alerts.

    It has been more than 3 weeks.

    I've been told me that a fair number of people accept ~2-3% as a good estimate for the chance at a potato. I'm not sure if this is before or after the dilution of the pool, but we'll go with it. That means there's a 97% chance of not getting a potato.

    Again, you can look through the alert feed and count the actual number yourself, and with the number of total alerts, arrive at a percentage.

    The probability of an event with likelihood p happening n times in a row is p^n. So the probability of not getting a potato 150 times in a row is 0.97^150 = 0.0104, or 1.04%.

    Small? Yes. Unlikely? Yes. Insignificant? No. This could never happen clearly it means that DE has removed potatos from the pool completely? No.

    Attempting to extrapolate conclusions from admittedly fudged data and groundless assumptions only shows the tester's bias. This is not conclusive.

    The problem, as DE has already acknowledged several times, is that a 3-week drought is possible with the current system, and that adding additional stuff to the pool makes it even worse. This is something that is going to be changed.

    And the problem the players have acknowledged several times is that when you say "I understand your frustration" for the tenth time, and promise again that changes are coming soon for weeks in a row, but things continue to not happen, you develop a lack of trust, a sense of frustration, and a sense of being handled. Which is what you, specifically, are trying to do; you are "handling" the people concerned about this.
  5. Then you agree that while we do not know the theoretical parameters, our experimental data shows a significantly greater drop in probability than what would be expected from the developer statements? Glad you've decided to start supporting the thread!

    You're wasting your time on that kid, he's a DElusional shill who used mommy's credit card and can't think his way out of a wet paper bag. He's already had to be saved from his own floundering mess by DERebecca earlier in the thread, but he can't figure that part out either and continues on with his drivel.

    Let's just say it like it is. If this is the best defense against the idea that the potato ? alert RNG table rates were changed/removed, then there's not a shadow of a doubt about it. He's going off completely baseless assumptions with zero numbers or evidence to back him up, despite being proven wrong several times. There's no argument whatsoever.

  6. Really?Kind of looks to me like F2Pers are actually more easily fleeced. After all, if 1 man spends 4 weeks of nights waiting on an alert for an item, and 1 spend 1 hour working and gets that same item.....well, ain't hard to see which ones is actually getting ripped off.

    I don't think you understand what the word "fleece" means. You cannot fleece yourself in this context, and time spent staying awake at night is not time you could have spent at your job.

    It's interesting to note, though, that you readily admit that some portion of DE's playerbase is being "ripped off".

  7. The whole thing, please run that by me.

    People bitterly fight over whether the game can be called pay2win or not. Ergo, a new phrase arose. Pay2sleep. Waiting up all night for that catalyst alert? Screw it, buy plat, buy the catalyst, go to sleep. Waiting up all night for that banshee alt helmet? Screw it, buy plat, buy the ugly piece of crap, go to sleep.

    Incidentally, pay2sleep means the same thing as pay2win in terms of players; those who don't pay2sleep are better, more dedicated, less easily-fleeced players.

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