KGeddon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 (edited) Or you might win 0, or 365 cars. You cannot into statistics. I will likely win 3 cars(probably 4 actually). That is statistics. However, I cannot say how many I actually won, as it has not happened yet. Your argument is invalid though. If you wish to do a statistical analysis on the probability of winning 0 or 365, you may do so now. Or you may go to Mourneblades gas station and simply buy gas 365 times and tell me how many cars you won. Edited January 15, 2013 by KGeddon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UkyoSonoda Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Free car? Hmm well unless it gets decent gas mileage, has 4 doors, decent engine power, all wheel drive, and a manual transmission I dont want it. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3XCAL1BURPRIME Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 (edited) And here I was thinking I was to read through 6 pages (well actually 5 since the first one didn't derail fast enough) of constructive ctirisism. Edited January 15, 2013 by Mikolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiawyr Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I will likely win 3 cars(probably 4 actually). That is statistics. However, I cannot say how many I actually won, as it has not happened yet. Your argument is invalid though. If you wish to do a statistical analysis on the probability of winning 0 or 365, you may do so now. Or you may go to Mourneblades gas station and simply buy gas 365 times and tell me how many cars you won. Surprised you're still stumbling with this. Did you not take statistics in high school/college? Have you reached either of those levels of education? The odds are you will win 1 car in 100 days; this doesn't mean you are "likely" to, it's just what the odds are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KGeddon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Again, you fail to comprehend even the easiest of notions. There is no "win or lose" in this conversation. The fact that you would even suggest that confirms how juvenile your approach to this conversation is. Unless you have something to contribute, for example a suggestion on the bonus system that would make both developers and players happy, I'm done with this back and forth childish banter. Besides, I would much rather enjoy feeding my newborn daughter at 1:30 am on just a few hours of sleep than to fight a fruitless battle with a random person I don't even care about! Good luck with your crusade and thread hi-jacking. There is a win. It's logic I give you something of minimal use 99 times out of 100. This does not reduce the time you spend sinking into Warframe to get what you want. Working as intended. I give you a catalyst/reactor/platinum 1 time out of 100. This makes it worth it to login each day, and if it's a third tier reward you must login each day to keep your streak and remain eligible for the third tier. Also working as intended. How long has the reward system been in place? How large a sample size do you have to judge it's worth? In fact, it doesn't matter. It's free stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KGeddon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Surprised you're still stumbling with this. Did you not take statistics in high school/college? Have you reached either of those levels of education? The odds are you will win 1 car in 100 days; this doesn't mean you are "likely" to, it's just what the odds are. "The odds are what the odds are". Respect for that circular argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiawyr Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 "The odds are what the odds are". Respect for that circular argument. It's where you got stuck in your perpetual left turn. Dunno how you got lost in a circular argument, but kudos for accomplishing something difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KGeddon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's where you got stuck in your perpetual left turn. Dunno how you got lost in a circular argument, but kudos for accomplishing something difficult. Not really. BTW, it's not the Gambler's Fallacy. But I guess you saw the term somewhere on the internet and decided to use it without knowing what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiawyr Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Not really. BTW, it's not the Gambler's Fallacy. But I guess you saw the term somewhere on the internet and decided to use it without knowing what it is. Hey, do me a favor, show me where I used that term? Go ahead, I'll wait. I'll wait 'till you come back and realize you can't keep track of who is saying what in your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KGeddon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Hey, do me a favor, show me where I used that term? Go ahead, I'll wait. I'll wait 'till you come back and realize you can't keep track of who is saying what in your head. Sorry, that was Rare(random bystander). Anyways, your statistics are wrong. 1:100 odds means that with a 365 sample size, it is likely that the event will occur 3, maybe 4 times. That is why the odds are formed as 1 event in a 100 sample pool. Statistical independence is only important if you were to try to predict the outcome of a particular point within the sample pool. Variance is also irrelevant in a purely hypothetical situation, however increase in the sample size would reduce the variation. But I won alot of cars. So I'm happy. You apparently are not, you should go get gas at that station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiawyr Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Sorry, that was Rare(random bystander). Anyways, your statistics are wrong. 1:100 odds means that with a 365 sample size, it is likely that the event will occur 3, maybe 4 times. That is why the odds are formed as 1 event in a 100 sample pool. Statistical independence is only important if you were to try to predict the outcome of a particular point within the sample pool. Variance is also irrelevant in a purely hypothetical situation, however increase in the sample size would reduce the variation. But I won alot of cars. So I'm happy. You apparently are not, you should go get gas at that station. Why wouldn't I be happy? I''m watching you stumble around in a circle thinking I'm someone else while being unable to stay on topic. You're the loudest voice against the idea of changing the login bonus and this is all you can do, it's a win for the players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KGeddon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Why wouldn't I be happy? I''m watching you stumble around in a circle thinking I'm someone else while being unable to stay on topic. You're the loudest voice against the idea of changing the login bonus and this is all you can do, it's a win for the players. Because there is no point. You're crying about free stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiawyr Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 (edited) Because there is no point. You're crying about free stuff. Oh dear, you forgot who said what again. Maybe you'd be more coherent about whatever your thoughts are if you could keep the speakers straight. Edit: There's really nothing further to say here, it's been said and done and short of beating on this guy I've said my part. Hope to see more discussion! Edited January 15, 2013 by Wiawyr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KGeddon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Oh dear, you forgot who said what again. Maybe you'd be more coherent about whatever your thoughts are if you could keep the speakers straight. Edit: There's really nothing further to say here, it's been said and done and short of beating on this guy I've said my part. Hope to see more discussion! You paid for your login reward? It's free stuff. Each day you have a chance to login. You have an offchance of a platinum item, or even platinum itself. It is not an active reward though. It rewards the minimum level of effort. It has a high chance of minimally useful items/xp. That is your discussion. If you refuse to accept these FACTS, you cannot have a discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kfoolu Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 And yet again, I log in only for the wheel to spin RIGHT PAST ANOTHER OROKIN REACTOR AND ONTO @(*()$ SNIPER AMMO. Thinking about it, I'd actually prefer to just have the option of switching log-in rewards off entirely. I'd rather have nothing than suffer through this blatant @#&$-teasing all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volume Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I dunno, with some good timing of when I click, I've managed to score blueprints for the Ember chassis and blueprints for an orokin reactor the past couple days. the days before that I didn't realize I could click the reward and got rifle ammo LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rusalki Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I dunno, with some good timing of when I click, I've managed to score blueprints for the Ember chassis and blueprints for an orokin reactor the past couple days. the days before that I didn't realize I could click the reward and got rifle ammo LOL Well, this seems huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiawyr Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Well, this seems huge. Indeed, I had tried clicking on the prize but it didn't seem to do anything...if that actually works, skill cranes ahoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volume Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Indeed, I had tried clicking on the prize but it didn't seem to do anything...if that actually works, skill cranes ahoy! Honestly it's the highest skillcap thing in the game right now. It really does work because I timed it - when it starts slowing down, it takes longer than if you clicked it. At first I thought it was just coincidence, like, oh, the roulette stopped at the same time as my mouse click, haha, but NO, your mouse click is actually it, and you can get some pretty cool stuff with luck and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonN36 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I don't mind the current login bonuses, but 0 ammo box for a 3 star reward... the hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenhon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 0 shotgun ammo box master race I think if they want it so you very rarely get anything good they should just make a win/lose situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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