Void Drop Rates + Void Keys Drop Rates + Void Key Pack Drop Rates+ Defense Reward Estimation

[Judopunch]

Id like to see the math on completing a Latron Prime. But the requirements are you have a group of 4 people, and you must find all the keys.

 

Id really really like to see the average amount of missions that would take.

 

Something like X# of missions to get Y# of keys. Than you average Z# of runs before you finish. Im not a statistics guy. But im guessing the answer is going to be 'fat chance'.

[Khranitel]

I've got Latron Prime.

I have Reaper Prime ready to be crafted.

I've got all Frost Prime parts except for helmet.

I'm crafting Forma non-stop since Thursday and yet have 4 spare BPs.

I've bought grand total of 0 keys packs.

I'm not a celebrity in my clan.

What I'm doing wrong?

[Kiteless]

And yet Warframe is here for a free 20+ hours of entertainment just on your first frame and weapons. How can you demand they produce the content of a $60 game and hand it out for free?

 

Because Warframe is built on a business model meant to capitalize on that.

 

Now, how effective DE may be on actually doing that can be put into question. But it's worth noting that supposedly 'free' games have managed to be some of the highest profit earning titles of the last few years.

Edited June 3, 2013 by Kiteless

[nanogenesis]

Except the AAA company screwed you into paying $60 for a game you can beat in one day, congratulations.

 

Congratulations you don't get the point.

[winterau]

I'm not sure where your "screwing" comes in. You say you have fun just playing the game with no goal to work towards whatsoever and then you proceed to say you'll stop playing when they give you something that you might one day achieve. How does this logic?

 

Because people play with the expectation that they have at least some decent chance of getting items.

 

Instead, DE screw their players over with either not allowing mods to drop at all (meaning you can only get them from real money mod packs), or put them behind multiple layers of extremely small chance RNG.

 

That is not something that I might "one day achieve" that is something that I might one day get extremely lucky with (I have been extremely lucky, but I know lots of people who haven't) or something that I need to pull the slot machine handle with (mods only in mod packs which are absolutely flooded with useless warframe ability rare mods).

 

There is nothing to work towards there, there is nothing to achieve, it is just screwing people over like slot machine manufacturers do. You see some people win big (get Latron Prime), but most people just keep plugging money in and get nothing for it. That is, in my opinion, pretty evil and not something I am comfortable supporting.

[cknives]

Id like to see the math on completing a Latron Prime. But the requirements are you have a group of 4 people, and you must find all the keys.

 

Id really really like to see the average amount of missions that would take.

 

Something like X# of missions to get Y# of keys. Than you average Z# of runs before you finish. Im not a statistics guy. But im guessing the answer is going to be 'fat chance'.

 

The Most optimal way of getting a latron prime with 4 people would be to:

 

Farm tier 1 defense to wave 5

 

After 10 runs you will have 4 keys at 25% drop chance that will be enough to get the latron prime BP

 

After another 30 runs you will have 12 keys that would be enough to get a Latron Prime Barrel: 11%

 

Now for the receiver

 

Latron Prime Receiver: 0.67%

 

at tier 1 that would take

 

like 150+ runs. So a solo person would have to do 1500 wave 5 IO runs.

 

Its 38 tier 1 keys per person in the 4 man group which is 380 wave 5 runs

 

Tier 2 void runs seem to have a lower chance of a receiver at 200 runs so 4000 solo wave 5 runs(forgot tier 2 keys had 5% drop chance)

 

Tier 3 keys are impossible to farm in a reasonable amount of time so not going to bother.(takes many 100s of runs just to get 1 key lol)

 

This is all rounded and rough math.

Edited June 3, 2013 by cknives

[Zsword]

The RNG gods favored me this day, my sacrafices were not in vain:

 

Frost Prime Chassis (Blah)

 

Next Run: Frost Prime Helmet. Needed it, but that only left...

 

Frost Prime systems, in the following Run, and I thought I was king of the world...

 

and then I got a Forma from the Log in Bonus, a full, Forma, and tears were shed, as the RNG had blessed me this day.

[cknives]

The RNG gods favored me this day, my sacrafices were not in vain:

 

Frost Prime Chassis (Blah)

 

Next Run: Frost Prime Helmet. Needed it, but that only left...

 

Frost Prime systems, in the following Run, and I thought I was king of the world...

 

and then I got a Forma from the Log in Bonus, a full, Forma, and tears were shed, as the RNG had blessed me this day.

You stole all my luck!

 

Login reward = suit xp

Run hyena for a control module. No control module or BPs after 5 runs.

[Meltina]

Please someone check my math I haven't done this in years and im hoping a mistake is in this.

 

This is assuming they are doing raid missions and rushing the objective.

 

Orokin Tier 1 Extermination Key: 0.17%
 Orokin Tier 1 Raid Key: 0.17%
 Orokin Tier 2 Extermination Key: 0.17%
 Orokin Tier 2 Raid Key: 0.17%
 Orokin Tier 3 Extermination Key: 0.17%

 

T1 Latron Prime Receiver: 0.67%
T2 Latron Prime Receiver: 0.5%
T3 Latron Prime Receiver: 12.65%

 

 

1:117 chance of key droping

1:585 chance of t3 key
1:8 chance for t3 receiver drop

1:4680 Chance of t3 receiver key

 

1:292 Chance of t1 key
1:149 chance of t1 receiver
1:43508 T1 receiver key

 

1:292 Chance of t2 key
1:200 t2 receiver
1:58400 Chance of t2 receiver key

 

The demoninator gets ugly as you find a common demoniator.

 

2540867200:1189125849600 T3 receiver
273312000:1189125849600 T1 receiver
203617440:1189125849600 T2 receiver

 

3017996640:1189125849600 chance of a receiver

Lets Divide this to something reasonable

1:3940 runs gets you a receiver.

 

985 runs assuming 4 person party. (Note this number does not have the number of void missions you have run with the keys you have farmed. This is only the number of runs to get the number of keys.)

 

I do hope I made an error in the process or typing this into the calculator. Also remember prehotfix there was no t3 reciver drop. So anyone who got a receiver from a dropped key is really special.

 

Assuming you do the run in 2 mins and play with no breaks. Its only 1.3 days.

 

Edit felt like adding more

 

Lets say its 4 mins a run if you add bathroom breaks gear changes and other delays. Your group plays for 2 hours a day before you get bored. Its only 32 days of doing m prime for 2 hours per day with a group of 4.

Edited June 3, 2013 by Meltina

[Cavan]

Actually you are 11.8 billion times more likely to get the Latron Prime Receiver in a single try than you are to win the lottery. Sorry I had to.

Lies!!! I've won £1 plenty of times and £10 once from the national lottery! (at about a pound a week for the past 3-4 months total) XD

[NeoDarkSider]

Every Free to play game has some sort of "Pay Wall." If they didn't, players would play through all the content too quickly and DE would make less profits. In League of Legends to Unlock all champions and all rune pages and full set of all runes will take a very long time. In Realm of the Mad God to unlock all classes and get all rare gear will take a very long time. In Warframe in its current state assuming it is complete as a game(which it is not of course), to unlock all warframe, to get all gear, and to get to the supposed end game area void will take a very long time. You could argue that its too much of a grind and takes too long to unlock everything in Lol, Rotmg, and Warframe.

 

So having a "Pay Wall" is required for gaming companies to make profits. People put up with it in Lol because:

There are so many champions to play over 100 vs only 14 in Warframe. 

There is Pvp so the game is always challenging.

 

People put up with it in Rotmg because:

You get to play with more than 4 players at the same time.

Gear has a linear progression.

Perma death makes the game challenging.

Trading is allowed.

 

If they want Void to be end game they need to:

 

1. Add more content (This will keep us busy and not focus void and be happy when we do get a void key drop. new missions, new solar system, new bosses, new warframes, new weapons (with mastery rank limitation to have progression. Game is still in beta.)

 

2. Make the game challenging. (The game is way to easy. We beat everything so fast. Everyone is use to how quickly it is to obtain everything. We only focus on what new weapons are released because we are already finished with the rest of the game.)

 

3. Some form of Trading to help with the rng. (De already stated they are working on this.)

 

4. Analyze the game data of how much time is required to achieve the void end game, listen to the players, and make appropriate adjustments.

 

 

 

 

[cknives]

Every Free to play game has some sort of "Pay Wall." If they didn't, players would play through all the content too quickly and DE would make less profits. In League of Legends to Unlock all champions and all rune pages and full set of all runes will take a very long time. In Realm of the Mad God to unlock all classes and get all rare gear will take a very long time. In Warframe in its current state assuming it is complete as a game(which it is not of course), to unlock all warframe, to get all gear, and to get to the supposed end game area void will take a very long time. You could argue that its too much of a grind and takes too long to unlock everything in Lol, Rotmg, and Warframe.

If warframe had 120+ warframes like league of legends and unlimited slots to unlock them with i don't think anyone would complain. I wouldn't even care about the void cause id be so bussy trying to unlock warframes.

 

You also don't need all of the champions or rune pages. League has no pay wall. Neither does tf2 or any of the other big F2P titles.

Edited June 3, 2013 by cknives

[NeoDarkSider]

If warframe had 120+ warframes like league of legends and unlimited slots to unlock them with i don't think anyone would complain. I wouldn't even care about the void cause id be so bussy trying to unlock warframes.

 

You also don't need all of the champions or rune pages. League has no pay wall. Neither does tf2 or any of the other big F2P titles.

You could also say that you don't need to play the new void area or obtain the new void gear. But players refer to the new content as "Pay Wall." That is why I compared Warframe to Lol and Rotmg. If you want to unlock everything in the game you need to either pay or put in the time in Lol, Rotmg, and Warframe.

 

And in the rest of my post, I already mentioned how if they had more content and better pace it would keep us busy and not worry about the void as much.

[Webly]

And yet Warframe is here for a free 20+ hours of entertainment just on your first frame and weapons. How can you demand they produce the content of a $60 game and hand it out for free?

It's like you think they aren't making money here.  They are doofus, and we'd like it to show in the quality of the game and how they treat their customers.

Let the game support itself with mainly cosmetic purchases (so make more purely cosmetic stuff) and then let ALL the gameplay-affecting-items be more easily attainable than they are now. This is the best f2p model and already proven successful in multiple games.  Whereas games like Tribes AssEnd decided to milk every cent they could out of the players for gameplay-affecting-items and look where that got them.

 

 

People are already falling all over themselves with the different color options and the few skins that are out there.  Make more and better cosmetic items and you'll be making fair dosh.  Why does DE insist on making the game pay2sleep/notgrind which pisses the vast majority of people off?  There are clearly better ways!  If they continue down this road, people like me will just tell their friends "Oh yeah I bought into that game, but don't waste your money it became a bust" and this game will die.

 

COSMETICS NOT PAY2SLEEP/NOTGRIND

[cknives]

You could also say that you don't need to play the new void area or obtain the new void gear.

I was going to say that your wrong. But your not. Nobody has to play the new void area. They can just Quit out of boredom.

 

There isn't enough content to keep anyone interested. Void is new content. If your not playing it your probably going to quit.

 

League has all content available for free. There is no difference between a guy who spends $1000 and a guy who just started.

 

I could make a brand new League account and work my way back up to my ELO within weeks without paying a penny. There is no extra content hidden behind $. $ doesn't give you an advantage.

 

On the other hand if i made a new warframe account with $1000 it would blow my current account out of the water within minutes.

[NeoDarkSider]

I was going to say that your wrong. But your not. Nobody has to play the new void area. They can just Quit out of boredom.

 

There isn't enough content to keep anyone interested. Void is new content. If your not playing it your probably going to quit.

 

League has all content available for free. There is no difference between a guy who spends $1000 and a guy who just started.

 

I could make a brand new League account and work my way back up to my ELO within weeks without paying a penny. There is no extra content hidden behind $. $ doesn't give you an advantage.

 

On the other hand if i made a new warframe account with $1000 it would blow my current account out of the water within minutes.

You are misunderstanding my original post or taking it out of context. In order for you to obtain and unlock all content of the Entire  game you need to either pay or put in the time. If you reread my original post you will see this or maybe I wasn't clear enough. Either way I am all for making Warframe more enjoyable for everyone. Even though I am a Hunter I only pay for warframe slots, weapon slots, colors. I enjoy earning everything in all the games I play.

[winterau]

You are misunderstanding my original post or taking it out of context. In order for you to obtain and unlock all content of the Entire  game you need to either pay or put in the time. If you reread my original post you will see this or maybe I wasn't clear enough. Either way I am all for making Warframe more enjoyable for everyone. Even though I am a Hunter I only pay for warframe slots, weapon slots, colors. I enjoy earning everything in all the games I play.

 

The difference between LoL and Warframe is that in LoL you can play to obtain content. In Warframe, you can play to obtain a very small chance to obtain content. In some cases, you can't even do that (hello mods that are restricted to slot machine mod packs)

 

That is a major and critical difference.

 

I wouldn't care if there was a currency in Warframe that I could get by playing and use to purchase content. I wouldn't care if they let me specifically buy a mod with platinum even (at least that is a cost I can evaluate up front). What I can't stand is the slot machine nature of the current design (introduced in a big way in Update 8). It is the wrong way for DE to go and if they persist with it, the game will die (or struggle along on the people who can't get out of the skinner box - you see those same people playing the slot machines with their last dollar and it is a terrible tragedy).

 

Don't be evil DE.

[Kiteless]

It's also worthy of note that LoL has content that goes beyond just unlocking things.

[Mr.Monday]

You are misunderstanding my original post or taking it out of context. In order for you to obtain and unlock all content of the Entire  game you need to either pay or put in the time. If you reread my original post you will see this or maybe I wasn't clear enough. Either way I am all for making Warframe more enjoyable for everyone. Even though I am a Hunter I only pay for warframe slots, weapon slots, colors. I enjoy earning everything in all the games I play.

Personally my problem is not the ability to experience or obtain content without money, it is the difference between the two, and what having a large difference means for the game.

The time advantage gained by investing even a small amount of money is so great that it makes nearly impossible for those who invest only time to keep up. This essentially is not bad for only one reason, warframe currently has no competitive environment. However once a competitive environment is introduced, once there is something to actually do with that content in a competitive setting, having such a enormous time advantage relative to so small a cost is essentially what pay to win is.

In my personal opinion for a competitive environment to survive a pay 2 win model the time invested end game needs to be more valuable then the money invested. 

It is for this reason that I believe Warframe will not survive an update that introduces any sort of competitive environment unless what can be earned becomes more valuable then what can be bought.

[NeoDarkSider]

Every Free to play game has some sort of "Pay Wall." If they didn't, players would play through all the content too quickly and DE would make less profits. In League of Legends to Unlock all champions and all rune pages and full set of all runes will take a very long time. In Realm of the Mad God to unlock all classes and get all rare gear will take a very long time. In Warframe in its current state assuming it is complete as a game(which it is not of course), to unlock all warframe, to get all gear, and to get to the supposed end game area void will take a very long time. You could argue that its too much of a grind and takes too long to unlock everything in Lol, Rotmg, and Warframe.

 

So having a "Pay Wall" is required for gaming companies to make profits. People put up with it in Lol because:

There are so many champions to play over 100 vs only 14 in Warframe. 

There is Pvp so the game is always challenging.

 

People put up with it in Rotmg because:

You get to play with more than 4 players at the same time.

Gear has a linear progression.

Perma death makes the game challenging.

Trading is allowed.

 

If they want Void to be end game they need to:

 

1. Add more content (This will keep us busy and not focus void and be happy when we do get a void key drop. new missions, new solar system, new bosses, new warframes, new weapons (with mastery rank limitation to have progression. Game is still in beta.)

 

2. Make the game challenging. (The game is way to easy. We beat everything so fast. Everyone is use to how quickly it is to obtain everything. We only focus on what new weapons are released because we are already finished with the rest of the game.)

 

3. Some form of Trading to help with the rng. (De already stated they are working on this.)

 

4. Analyze the game data of how much time is required to achieve the void end game, listen to the players, and make appropriate adjustments.

 

 

The difference between LoL and Warframe is that in LoL you can play to obtain content. In Warframe, you can play to obtain a very small chance to obtain content. In some cases, you can't even do that (hello mods that are restricted to slot machine mod packs)

 

That is a major and critical difference.

 

I wouldn't care if there was a currency in Warframe that I could get by playing and use to purchase content. I wouldn't care if they let me specifically buy a mod with platinum even (at least that is a cost I can evaluate up front). What I can't stand is the slot machine nature of the current design (introduced in a big way in Update 8). It is the wrong way for DE to go and if they persist with it, the game will die (or struggle along on the people who can't get out of the skinner box - you see those same people playing the slot machines with their last dollar and it is a terrible tragedy).

 

Don't be evil DE.

Yes I agree that is a major and critical difference. I was using Lol as as a comparison to how long it would take to unlock everything and how lol can still be enjoyable due amount of content and challenging pvp.

 

I was also using Rotmg to compare how long it would take to unlock everything and how Rotmg can still be enjoyable due to amount of content, challenges, and trading.

 

I was hoping to use these example to help others understand why DE is doing what they are doing. AND to help better understand what and why other ftp games like Lol and Rotmg are doing to makes them successful so that DE may learn from them.

[winterau]

LoL can still be enjoyable because you don't have to unlock all 100 champions to have fun. You can just have fun playing (if you find it fun), and you can potentially try new champions every week. It is a cool model.

 

DE's problem is how to monetise the game. Obviously I have spent $100 on the game (to get Master), however what is going to entice me to keep giving them money in addition to the $100 that I already spent? I assume that with LoL they can push out champions much faster than Warframes can get developed. There is also the PvP aspect to generate content (that is really the only content that LoL has) whereas DE need to make PvE content which takes longer because they have to do more than generate the sandbox.

 

They don't know how to monetise and that is why they have pulled this crap with the Void keys and the Forma. That is the way that they can see to monetise things. It is also a very blunt and obvious way which turns a lot of people off. 

 

However obviously the things they were doing before (convenience slots) were not enough for them to maintain the necessary revenue stream. My fear is that this is just the start of them becoming more ham fisted in their attempts to monetise. At some point they will reach the maximum extent of their paying players and then they will just try to squeeze what they can out of those players before they all leave. 

[Kynian]

There's a difference between making equipment rare and difficult to obtain, and locking off content between absurdly low drop odds and overpriced pay walls.

 

When your game is already starved for content as it is, and you put your new content behind a paywall like this (because considering the drop rates for the keys, that's exactly what it is), you are sending a very clear message to your player base.

 

Now, I'd prefer to think that DE doesn't think that we're a bunch of stupid chumps, and more along the lines of a poor error in judgement as a whole. Personally, what I would suggest:

 

-Rework the void so that it is exclusively high level content (no one cares about T1 or T2 anyway), and then make it freely accessible for high level players. There have been many good suggestions for unlocking void content, so use some of those. The most important thing is that it be reasonably attainable.

Clearing the star map would probably appeal most to more casual oriented players, since it keeps a steady flow of available content.

Using mastery could be a decent system that could also encourage monetization on the side (slots, weapons, frames, etc.), but I'd be careful with relying on it too much. Rank 9 takes a prohibitively long time to get too, for example (although you could possibly save that for later high level content down the road)

 

-Once Dojos have been brought to a serviceable level, stop all development on them until there is more actual content. One of the biggest missteps that I felt this game made during its development was devoting resources and personnel to a trivial pet project like the dojo at this point in development when there is barely any actual content in the game itself. I've said it in other threads, but no one buys a game for the guild halls. It's a bonus at best (think of it like this: who actually gave a S#&$ about Playstation Home?). And you can work on bonuses once the core game is actually there.

 

-Never put content behind a paywall again. This is what keeps people coming back to your game. This is what stops us from only logging in once every few days to grab an alert and then log out, and ultimately stop playing in general. There's a lot you can get us to pay for, but when you start locking off part of actual gameplay, be it through absurd tedium required to get it, overpriced and under performing paywalls, or a combination of both, you end up losing the trust of your customer base, and soon your customer base itself. There are a lot of ways to encourage monetization, this is not one of them.

Bravo. Simply bravo.

 

 

Summary

 

If you read all the posts, we are not discussing about t1 keys. 

Their droprate is acceptable (8% per 5 wave according to the data)

The issue is that t1 :

-don't allow you do get frost part

-don't allow you to get forma

-don't allow you to get receiver and blade so you can't finish related weapons (aka repaer prime/latron prime)

 

T3 key is nearly undroppable without an incredible amount of luck (hardcore player here, i have farmed 10 hours every day since u8 and didn't see a single one).

 

Keys are overpriced

 

Keys pack don't allow you to get more than 1 t3 if you have not an incredible amount of luck again

 

You have no reason to spend five bucks for a t3 key when you are done with all t1 rewards

 

Conclusion :

An area and some items parts seem to be exclusive to harcore platinum buyers or key leechers. Not hardcore freeplayers.

 

@DeRebecca,

 

You system is totally different from Diablo. Don't refer to that game please.

Diablo is based on Rng items but there are some areas with higher drop rates that improve your chance. There is a system to improve your chance to get "rare"  thing.

There is a trade system.

There is an AH system (D3).

You can trade something you don't want or you don't need for an other item with the community. (a feature that should appear  soon in Warframe if you are working on it).

 

If I am farming 3 hours a high level area in D3 (inferno mode), i am pretty sure i'll get something valuable, and ll make money even if i don't need it.

If i am farming 5 hours per day xini as i am doing, i am just getting complete pages of warframe common mods again and again (still looking for my thunderbolt).

The argument is valid imho, and makes me shaky. I love this game, but this does scare me quite a bit. Seeing those numbers made me rmember Ragnarok Online all those years ago, the grinding, farming, endless...

To put it bluntly: this goes on, I'll get out. I want to have quality game time, and now that I've seen this thread, I've realized it's been lacking for some time now. I would buy more platinum eventually and support the game, for things that are worth it, not the way it's going on, for paywalls.

Btw, to Asla, Kiteless and all others with valid, constructive and sound arguments: thanks for shedding light into this. I never stopped to do the math by myself since it bores me greatly (artist at heart), but after seeing this I actually made a lot of calculus, just ot be extra-safe, and our results matched. I really hoped they didn't. 

 

I've got Latron Prime.

I have Reaper Prime ready to be crafted.

I've got all Frost Prime parts except for helmet.

I'm crafting Forma non-stop since Thursday and yet have 4 spare BPs.

I've bought grand total of 0 keys packs.

I'm not a celebrity in my clan.

What I'm doing wrong?

Well, you did what I did. I got everything from void:

- Reaper Prime

- Latron Prime

- Frost Prime

- Some Forma (this is never enough though)

And I feel terrible about having this all because I leeched the generosity of people offering free rides. You did the same thing, I'm sure. Personally, I feel ashamed. You should too.

[Wellthen]

Well, you did what I did. I got everything from void:

- Reaper Prime

- Latron Prime

- Frost Prime

- Some Forma (this is never enough though)

And I feel terrible about having this all because I leeched the generosity of people offering free rides. You did the same thing, I'm sure. Personally, I feel ashamed. You should too.

Not all of us leeched off of others' generosity to get those. Some of us exploited hardcore, running over a hundred free void runs for others to help get parts and acquiring negative key totals in the process. I don't feel terrible or ashamed about this at all.

[Vyra]

did DE confirm this?

[Promite]

did DE confirm this?

 

I doubt they would.