An Rng Alternative: Pseudo-Random Distribution

[ArcSynder]

TLDR: Every time a random event does not happen, it's chance of happening increases, and the chance resets to a minimum value upon success. This results in an overall lower chance of an event occurring, but a guaranteed return over a large period of time. 

 

WARNING: NUMBERS AHEAD

 

WHERE DOES IT COME FROM / HOW DOES IT WORK?:

 

Pseudo-Random Distribution, or PRD for short, is most commonly known as a gameplay mechanic utilized by DotA. It is generally used for abilities and items that have a percent chance to occur. 

 

For example, let's say your character has a 25% chance to stun when he attacks. Traditionally, each attack is calculated separately, allowing for long chains of unsuccessful attacks. (Or the reverse.) Under PRD, such a character is instead given an actual percent chance of 8.5%. This starting value also serves as the increment value. Thus, if you have a chain of failed attacks, your chance of stunning would be 8.5%, 17, 25.5, 34...up until your twelfth attack, where you would have a 102% chance of stunning, guaranteeing success. 

 

However, it is important to note that if you were to do the statistics for such a system over an infinite time, you have an actual chance of 24.9%. As the intended chance gets larger, the actual chance generated by PRD gets smaller and smaller. At 70% intended, the actual chance is 60.1%. 

 

HOW DOES THIS APPLY TO WARFRAME?:

 

Well, let's get the obvious out of the way first. It could be used for a weapon's crit chance to provide more regular returns. However, the real reason I brought this up was the system that has become such a hot topic lately, especially since Vauban:

 

The Alert System. 

 

This could be applied to almost every aspect and, best of all, can be tuned to DE's liking. Let's say they want an average of 50 alerts per day. (Again, I'm just picking arbitrary numbers.) Let's say the systems rolls for a new alert once every ten minutes. That gives it 144 chances to spawn an alert per day. We want 50, so we want to achieve a 34.72% chance of spawning an alert every ten minutes. Under PRD, we could have our value be something closer to 14.6%. (Note that, because of the way PRD works, the actual chance would come out to ~33.6%) This guarantees an alert every 15 instances, or two and a half hours. 

 

So what about ? alerts? Well, again picking arbitrary numbers, let's say DE wants 8 ? alerts per day. That would mean that for every alert, there is a 20% chance of it having a ? reward. Just like before, we'll choose our PRD value, this time 5.57%. (Since this chance is low enough, the actual chance is essentially 20% as well.) This would guarantee a ? alert for every 18 alerts, meaning no more days without a ? alert. 

 

And, what you've likely all been waiting for, the ? rewards themselves. AKA, "how long will I have to wait to get Vauban?" We'll, here's where it gets really tricky, since DE could weight each reward individually if they wanted to. (IE, making reactors/catalysts rarer than artifacts) With new items being added to the drop pool as well, the individual chances would have to be lowered often. So even within my hypothetical situation using arbitrary numbers, there really is no way to predict that maximum time until Vauban under such a system. (Assuming you were online for each of his alerts, mind you.) 

 

Which naturally means I'm going to try it anyway. 

 

I *think* there are 41 items in the ? drop pool atm. Let's say everything is, for whatever reason, weighted evenly. That gives each piece of Vauban a 2.44% chance to drop. To achieve such a low chance, we would need a PRD value of, say, .08%. (Because 2.5% is so low, I am likely way off. Limits and such.) This would mean that, after 1250 alerts, each piece of Vauban would be guaranteed to drop once. If we say there are 8 ? alerts per day, that would mean that you would be able to start crafting Vauban in no more than 156.25 days. 

 

(If you actually read through all of this, thank you!)

 

I would like to conclude by reiterating that PRD is not meant to make obtaining an item easier. On the contrary, it makes it slightly harder in practice. However, it gives comfort to the player in knowing that eventually, it must be guaranteed to drop. In short, it feels a bit more "fair" to the player, while also giving DE more control over how often they want certain items to drop. 

[wayneo]

they are still in beta for few more days, they may change how Vauban is obtained, i also think that alerts some how related to how many missions are completed by players. dont think they need to change alerts but instead add new ways to also obtain them items. But i believe they should change logins reward system before changing the alert. login rewards are poop putting it nicely before i reseted i had 100 amno boxes? what do i do with them? if they were real maybe i could of built something with them.

[Un1ted]

TLDR: Every time a random event does not happen, it's chance of happening increases, and the chance resets to a minimum value upon success. This results in an overall lower chance of an event occurring, but a guaranteed return over a large period of time. 

 

That does sound better but wouldn't it require a lot more processing to calculate and track that for each individual player (and per item) as opposed to the current system which is just blind luck? It's like having a "smart" system as opposed to a "dumb" system and I'm assuming they're sticking with the dumb system since its easy and less resource intensive.

 

While I would prefer the PRD system, I'm not sure why they don't just bump up the drop rate a bit in the current system. I'm sure they can make adjustments to rarity drop rates pretty easily to help alleviate the frustrations caused by the current RNG system. Just bump it up in small steps and monitor the results, is all they'd need to do. 

[michaelwii]

Although this seems to have been created in reaction to the drops for the new warframe, I agree with your implication that it can apply to ALOT of things. Definitely something DE could consider. And I would much rather know I'll get it eventually than only hope I'll get it at some point.

[SoaringEagle]

Not that I disagree with the use of this with alerts, I disagree with the implementation of it into the current alert system, which guarantees one single item for every player during the alert. This would only work for alerts if the "? Alerts" are turned into random items for everybody.

For example, no more Twitter posts like this: Pallene (Saturn): Clear Resistance - 41m - 3900cr - Rifle Scavenger (Artifact)

Rather they would look like: Pallene (Saturn): Clear Resistance - 41m - 3900cr - ?

Nobody knows what they will be awarded until it is completed and a random item is selected from the pool, eliminating the Time RNG.

Course many others want a token-like system, and they can purchase what they want with those tokens.

DE will probably discuss the Alerts on their next live stream given the amount of feedback provided regarding alerts.

[matrixEXO]

Not that I disagree with the use of this with alerts, I disagree with the implementation of it into the current alert system, which guarantees one single item for every player during the alert. This would only work for alerts if the "? Alerts" are turned into random items for everybody.

For example, no more Twitter posts like this: Pallene (Saturn): Clear Resistance - 41m - 3900cr - Rifle Scavenger (Artifact)

Rather they would look like: Pallene (Saturn): Clear Resistance - 41m - 3900cr - ?

Nobody knows what they will be awarded until it is completed and a random item is selected from the pool, eliminating the Time RNG.

Course many others want a token-like system, and they can purchase what they want with those tokens.

DE will probably discuss the Alerts on their next live stream given the amount of feedback provided regarding alerts.

Tokens are the bane of casual player's existence. Imagine a new frame being charged 50 tokens and a casual player (who has a life) can only play for at most 4 hrs a day during weekends. That means that it would take them 3 weeks to actually farm up enough tokens for just one blueprint part, and a rough total of 8 weeks to get all 3 parts. By these 2 months, the number of hardcore players who actually play the Alerts a lot would have gotten the blueprints, butt-loads of potatoes and have all other items. Then they would be just waiting for a new item to pop up in the Alerts.

Edited May 19, 2013 by matrixEXO

[SoaringEagle]

Tokens are the bane of casual player's existence. Imagine a new frame being charged 50 tokens and a casual player (who has a life) can only play for at most 4 hrs a day during weekends. That means that it would take them 3 weeks to actually farm up enough tokens for just one blueprint part, and a rough total of 8 weeks to get all 3 parts. By these 2 months, the number of hardcore players who actually play the Alerts a lot would have gotten the blueprints, butt-loads of potatoes and have all other items. Then they would be just waiting for a new item to pop up in the Alerts.

At least everybody has a chance for the rewards, and not just the hardcore players who have more spare time.

My whole post was about eliminating the Time RNG aspect from Alerts, and I'm open to ideas which support that objective.

[matrixEXO]

At least everybody has a chance for the rewards, and not just the hardcore players who have more spare time.

My whole post was about eliminating the Time RNG aspect from Alerts, and I'm open to ideas which support that objective.

So, you want to eliminate the RNG aspect of the game, and leave the Time alone. That's what I'm getting from it. BUT! I see it as a bane to the game's existence. It makes casual gamers take too long while hardcore gamers too short a time. I think keeping RNG in place would be better while removing the Time word out. In fact, the game's Alert missions are not real RNGs since it's not player controlled. To me, RNG = player-driven motivation to roll a dice and get the number he wants. Means that farming a boss non-stop to get that one helmet BP that you haven't gotten or that one systems BP that you haven't gotten is RNG. Waiting for an alert to pop up to show something that you want is not RNG.

[Unknown924]

Tokens are the bane of casual player's existence. Imagine a new frame being charged 50 tokens and a casual player (who has a life) can only play for at most 4 hrs a day during weekends. That means that it would take them 3 weeks to actually farm up enough tokens for just one blueprint part, and a rough total of 8 weeks to get all 3 parts. By these 2 months, the number of hardcore players who actually play the Alerts a lot would have gotten the blueprints, butt-loads of potatoes and have all other items. Then they would be just waiting for a new item to pop up in the Alerts.

That is very similar to what we already have. Those people with a lot of free time can afford to stay by their computer or even set alarms to wake up for alerts. The person with only 4 hrs a day may never get the reward they want with the current system.

The main difference is that the casual player can slowly save up for what they want instead of hopping it will appear while they are playing. The fact that people have to rely on luck to get the reward they want is much worse than being able to eventually get it after putting in a lot of effort. The first give the player no control while the second puts some control in the hands of the player.

For the OP: I think past rewards at the given time should be tracked and influence the selected reward also. This would help distribute rewards more evenly.

[Argoms]

I'd say no with the alert system. The entire concept is flawed to me- having a random event completely independent of player interaction control item drops.

 

However, this sort of thing could be nice for random effects in regular combat. 

[TehJumpingJawa]

That's not the name I'd use to describe it, though I'm not sure what the correct term would be.

Nonetheless, it's an interesting idea; a more normalised distribution of the valuable alerts might be appealing to both devs and players alike.

Edited May 20, 2013 by TehJumpingJawa