Loot Tables Put Out By De Are A Lie!

[Katinka]

The chance on any single mission is the same.  Cumulatively the chance increases as the number of missions sampled increases.

 

The entire point of a 5% chance on a truly random table is that after about 20 runs, you're extremely unlikely to not have had it drop once. 

 

So no, while your next run has the same chance as the run before it, the total cumulative chance is higher as you continue to run.

 

BTW, if Whine Prime is a part you want, chances are it's drop chance is set below 1%.  This is just based on experience with DE.  Back when we could still find the drop chances from the actual game, they were often set at .01% and lower.  You think about that and DE's continued 'promise' of less grind, and tell me you don't think they are lying.

 

Actually your chance of not getting a 5% drop in twenty runs is (1-0.05)^20=35.85%.  so while it is more likely than not that you will have it after 20 runs just over 1 in 3 people will still not have it so I would not go as far as to say it is 'extremely unlikely to not have had it drop once'.

[-SLX-J3tAc3]

OK, so Blueokie thought it was a lie based upon what he actually got and what is listed/spoken of by a staff member of DE. He made a mistake and called their table a lie - it seems that he simply did not quite understand how RNG works, has not quite heard from the forum how bad the drop tables are and seems to have missed some important stuff.

It's simply part of the basic human psyche that if you put in so much effort towards something and you get nothing for it, you'll get upset, and it seems the man/woman was upset when they made this post. RNG has been the subject of much anger and controversy on these forums, as well as multiple memes and the like.

Don't worry, Blueokie, you'll get it sooner or later - you just gotta soldier on or go to trade chat to get it - that's the name of the game.

Still, though, the grind...I'm really against it because I strongly believe it is going to act like a deterrent to many people and it leads to outbursts like this.

Edited June 19, 2014 by -SLX-J3tAc3

[Katinka]

 

This is probably the reason the carapace is going for 30 to 50 plat.

 

This is the lie.  I ran a T2D after reading this and got a Carapace.  Tried to sell it and got no takers.  Saw someone else trying to sell one for 15pl.