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Doing Probability On One Thing In This Forum... (Off Topic)


Renegade343
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And that is: The number of players in this forum that do not read a topic to realise that said topic is within PVP Feedback. 

 

From doing some quick calculations, there is an average of 5 players that do not read a topic to realise that said topic is within PVP Feedback per day. Assuming that this is independent (which is most likely is), that means this average falls under the Poisson distribution of X ~ Po(5). 

 

Now, what is the probability that there would be exactly 5 players that do not read a topic to realise that said topic is within PVP Feedback on a particular day?

 

X ~ Po(5)

P(X = 5) = (55 x e-5) ÷ 5!

P(X = 5) = 21.0561 ÷ 120

P(X = 5) = 0.17547

 

So, under 20% chance then. That is nice. 

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point taken

 

but,here is the caveat

 

while the math is pure and sound

 

it does not relate to human experience

 

for example: even with the low low low chance of 20%..say 1000 people are busy roving around the feedback section

 

that would still be 200 people with the wrong idea,which in any forumites experience is an army

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