Please Read This Before Posting About Drop Rates

[Notso]

Hello! Since we have probability mathematicians here and I am deeply interested in probability, could you please check if this formula to compute the number of all rare mods dropping is valid (the number of enemies killed to get all the rare mods considering all rare mods drop only from foes)? P(mod_drop)*P(rare)*(number_of_rare_mods!/number_of_rare_mods^number_of_rare_mods) I know it computes the % probability, but just wanted to check if its a valid formula.

 

Thanks in advance

 

Uhh I'll have to write that down on a piece of paper, give me a minute or two

[Notso]

I'm afraid that's beyond me at this time of night, and I expect it'll be beyond me when I'm properly awake too. I'll have another look on the weekend, but it'd help me to know how you got that formula in the first place [ :

[Muflon]

Lets suggest there are 100 rare mods. Also lets suggest you get one mod drop per 30 enemies which from a rare mod occurs 10% of time. So I thought:

P(1/30)*P(1/10)* first rare drop is always unique so its *100/100 so second should be *99/100, third *98/100 and so on until *1/100 for the last mod. Hope I was clear.

[Notso]

Isn't there is a maximum of one mod drop per kill?

[cknives]

Nice job. From my experience that data is pretty close.

[Muflon]

Yes I see that flaw now, it should be multiplied somehow

 

EDIT: probably the rare mod drop part as (P(1/30)*P(1/10))^number_of_rare_mods

 

EDIT2: To the final (P(mod_drop)*P(rare))^number_of_rare_mods*(number_of_rare_mods!/number_of_rare_mods^number_of_rare_mods)

Edited May 16, 2013 by Muflon

[Notso]

Yes I see that flaw now, it should be multiplied somehow

 

Yeah, I'll have a think about it tomorrow when my brain is fresh.

[Muflon]

Well, posted formula in EDIT2 of my previous post based on this chain P(1/30)*P(1/10)*100/100*P(1/30)*P(1/10)*99/100*P(1/30)*P(1/10)*98/100*P(1/30)*P(1/10)*97/100...*P(1/30)*P(1/10)*1/100

[austinrelis]

People complain about drop rates?

[SymphNo9]

As we usually said in our multivariate statistics course; statistics, lying with numbers >:)

[Muflon]

As we usually said in our multivariate statistics course; statistics, lying with numbers >:)

 

:D

 

Wasn't it "adjusting to our needs"? :D

[Sp1nKuro]

This is an awesome thread +1 fellow Tenno.

[Notso]

Well, posted formula in EDIT2 of my previous post based on this chain P(1/30)*P(1/10)*100/100*P(1/30)*P(1/10)*99/100*P(1/30)*P(1/10)*98/100*P(1/30)*P(1/10)*97/100...*P(1/30)*P(1/10)*1/100

 

Problem is when I apply that formula to the Warframe BP drops, I get 2/1125, which means one would need 562.5 boss runs to get all three BPs... Which is evidently incorrect.

[Notso]

I had a think about it [couldn't sleep with it going round in my head over and over] and the best I could come up with is the number of trials needed to expect to get every rare mod.

 

P(Rare mod is dropped) x H_n

 

Where H_n is the harmonic sum from 1 to n, and n is the number of rare mods there are.

 

Because we are limited to 1 mod per trial, we can't meaningfully calculate the probability of getting all the mods simultaneously, but regardless that probability would be:

 

1 / [ P(Rare mod is dropped) x H_n ]

Edited May 16, 2013 by Notso

[Muflon]

Problem is when I apply that formula to the Warframe BP drops, I get 2/1125, which means one would need 562.5 boss runs to get all three BPs... Which is evidently incorrect.

 

Hmmm, isn't 2/1125 the percentual chance of getting 3 different blueprints from 3 runs? In that case the formula would point out the percentual chance of every mod dropping being an unique rare mod.

 

But Notso, thanks for keeping interest in this cause anyway :)

[Notso]

Hmmm, isn't 2/1125 the percentual chance of getting 3 different blueprints from 3 runs? In that case the formula would point out the percentual chance of every mod dropping being an unique rare mod.

 

But Notso, thanks for keeping interest in this cause anyway :)

 

Exactly, that's the problem :-\ As I said in a previous post, as far as I know there isn't any meaningful way to calculate the probability of getting all the mods/BPs in a single kill due to the fact that we're limited to 1 per kill. The closest I can get is the reciprocal of the expected number of runs.

[Muflon]

Exactly, that's the problem :-\ As I said in a previous post, as far as I know there isn't any meaningful way to calculate the probability of getting all the mods/BPs in a single kill due to the fact that we're limited to 1 per kill. The closest I can get is the reciprocal of the expected number of runs.

 

There is actually no problem at all since I am happy that formula actually points something out :D

[Notso]

Haha, fair enough man!

[Aerensiniac]

Good thread, i applaud and +1d it.

That being said, it runs a crapload of assumptions.

Edited May 17, 2013 by Aerensiniac

[Notso]

Good thread, i applaud and +1d it.

That being said, it runs a crapload of assumptions.

 

But all the basic points are enough to illustrate why all the people complaining are just part of the unlucky group, and that we should be more worried if we didn't have people not getting the things they needed after a ton of runs :P

 

Believe me, I'm not happy with the assumptions either, but it's literally the best I can do with the information available to me.

[Aerensiniac]

But all the basic points are enough to illustrate why all the people complaining are just part of the unlucky group, and that we should be more worried if we didn't have people not getting the things they needed after a ton of runs :P

 

Believe me, I'm not happy with the assumptions either, but it's literally the best I can do with the information available to me.

 

I honestly just wish that devs would finally open up about this question

This has been discussed over and over again ever since 7.7 was released, first with a question and as of late with more and more hate and frustration. A few of my friends simply left the game due to the mess with drop rates which are SUPPOSEDLY rng and all have the same chance, but rant rant rant rant.

Long story short: It would be mighty crackin time for the devs to stop playing deaf mute in regards of this question.

 

I cant even understand why they are doing it.

Who will it hurt if the players are not killing each other over assumptive miscalculations in the forums?

Certainly not the game or the community.

Edited May 17, 2013 by Aerensiniac

[Notso]

This is just postulation, but the way mod drops work at the moment is that the RNG rolls once to see if a mod is dropped. But what mod appears is different for each player, so I'm guessing then rolls again to see what mod it is. But since all this works in Solo mode, or when not connected tot he internet, doesn't that mean drops are calculated client-side?

 

So, wouldn't it be possible for some clever soul to do some file-digging and find the loot tables?

[holdenagincourt]

Has it ever actually been stated by devs that the probability of assassination BP drop is 20%? Or is that basically conjecture on the part of players?

 

To be clear, I have no complaints about Warframe's drop rates. Compared to, for instance, the ME3 store the RNG in this game is notably forgiving. I just want to know whether your first assumption is based on confirmed data.

[Aerensiniac]

This is just postulation, but the way mod drops work at the moment is that the RNG rolls once to see if a mod is dropped. But what mod appears is different for each player, so I'm guessing then rolls again to see what mod it is. But since all this works in Solo mode, or when not connected tot he internet, doesn't that mean drops are calculated client-side?

 

So, wouldn't it be possible for some clever soul to do some file-digging and find the loot tables?

 

I find that an impossible implication.

Drop processes are exclusively server side by design, IF the client decided the drops, then warframe would be hacked to bits.

 

Solo does not mean that you are not connected to the internet.

[Meltina]

What would be fun to start getting data is to have players check their stat screens when they get their first multishot mod and find how many games they played eventualy we can see how many games it takes to get one and start getting an average.

 

I have a friend with 670 games played and still has not found a split chamber mod. He started after the mod revamp that made multishot rare.

 

I know I can't use my data for reach mod as most of my games played are from before the mod revamp.